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Tropical Storm Arthur – July 2014
40th NWA Annual Meeting Richard Okulski, NWS WFO Caribou, Maine
Tropical Storm Arthur – July 5, 2014
Overview
TimingHeadlines (Tropical Vs. Non-Tropical) Headline Considerations Impacts Best Practices/Lessons Learned Open Discussion With Emergency Management Community (April 2015)
Timing
Very Early Season Tropical Cyclone – One of the earliest on record for
Maine4th of July Weekend – Tourists near the ocean – Rogue waves/heavy surf– Emergency response staff on
vacation Busy Week Leading Up To Event – Early season heat wave (temps
in the 90s)– Severe weather on July 3rd
U.S. watches and warnings associated with Arthur on NHC Advisory 15 issued at
11 AM EDT July 4, 2014.
3
Weather Headlines
Canadian Hurricane Center Issues Tropical Storm Watches For New Brunswick and Nova Scotia During the Evening of July 3rd WFO Caribou In Consultation With NHC Issues High Wind Warnings During the Afternoon of July 4th – Collaboration between WFO and NHC started
on the evening of the 3rd– Track continued to shift west into the Bay of
Fundy– WFO issued Non-Tropical headlines with
afternoon package – Last second offer by NHC to switch to Tropical
Headlines – WFO considered switch to be too confusing
Canadian watches and warnings associated with Arthur at 5 AM EDT July 5, 2014.
4
Tropical Versus Non-Tropical?
The Canadian and National Hurricane Centers Do Not Have To Issue Consistent Headlines Along the BorderArthur Forecast To Become Post Tropical In The Bay of Fundy (Verified) Situational Awareness – Do Tropical Headlines Raise Awareness
More Than Non-Tropical Equivalents? – Do Tropical Headlines Make It Easier To
Request Resources On A Holiday Weekend?
Canadian watches and warnings associated with Arthur at 5 AM EDT July 5, 2014.
5
Impacts – Waves Highest Waves – Nova Scotia – Up to 25 Foot Heights
Wave Heights To 15 Feet Along Downeast Coast The Morning of the 5th – Long Period Swell To 14
Seconds – Significant Potential For
Rogue Waves 2 to 3 Times The Significant Wave Height (30 to 40 Feet)
Higher Than Normal Number of Tourists Near Coast For Holiday Weekend
Impacts – Wind Winds Gusts To 65 MPH Downeast Maine Wind Field Expands As Cyclone Transitions To Post Tropical On Saturday – Gusts To 50 MPH
Northeast Aroostook and Southern Penobscot Counties
Worst Warm Season Tree Damage in Washington County Since Hurricane Edna (1954) Widespread Power Outages– EMERA (19190), CMP
(3000), Eastern Maine Electric (3200)
Impacts – Heavy Rain Up to 7 Inches of Rain Fell In Washington County in 24 Hours Exacerbated Response To Wind Damage Interesting Footnote – Temperatures Aloft Were Almost
Cold Enough To Have Snow Fall Above 3000 Feet Across Eastern Maine
– If This Had Been A September Or October Event, Heavy Wet Snow Could Have Fallen
Best Practices
Issued Five Event Briefings July 3-5 Collaborated Closely With NHC And State/Local EMA Directors Stayed The Course After Issuing Non-Tropical Headlines To Avoid Confusion Provided Hourly Wind and Wave Information On July 5th During Greatest Impacts Conducted Informal Post Event “Hot Wash” With EMA Directors and Forecast Staff Via E-Mail The Following WeekVisited MEMA HQ The Following Week and Spoke With Deputy Director
Lessons Learned
Did Not Know Canadian Hurricane Center Could Issue Headlines Apart From NHC Could Have Pushed Tropical Headlines With NHC If We Knew It Would Raise Situational Awareness Tough To Time Forecast Of Expanded High Wind Field When Cyclone Transition To Post Tropical Additional Conference Calls Could Have Clarified The High Wind and Heavy Rain Impacts
Open Discussion At State EMA Conference
If A Tropical Cyclone Is Forecast To Transition To Post Tropical Near The Maine Coast, What Is Your Preference For Headlines? Feedback – Prefer Tropical Headlines Due to Greater Public
Awareness and Response – Tropical Headlines Prompts Greater Readiness For
Utility Companies – The Term “Post Tropical” Is Confusing – Implies That
Event Is Over Or Less Serious
Questions?
Courtesy The Weather Channel