TRIM Daily - trimegah.com · Nov ‘15 by 12.3% (average). Inflation going modestly during 2015 and coming down faster than expected. Out of 10 months 2015, Indonesia experienced

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Expect some strengthening in JCI today albeit risks of Fed rate hike this month. Recent U.S. unemployment data suggests improvement and this should be additional trigger on the rate hike. Indo inflation: in line with our estimates, bringing room for lower BI rate. However, we expect BI rate to stay at 7.5% level and monetary stimulus will be in other forms than lower-ing BI rate. Telco news: ISAT launches 4G-1800Mhz in 21 cities—positive.

BBTN: obtained Rp20tn funding from Research and Technology Ministry—positive as it increases BBTN’s lending capacity for public housing program and potentially lower CoF. Property: REITs regulation to be revised, stamp duty cost would be lowered further to be equal with Singapore, 3%.

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Dec 2, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 111 point or 2.5% to 4558 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by misc industry (6.13%), finance (+4.27%),and basic industry (4.23%). Total transaction value was Rp5.8tr. foreign recorded Rp256tr net sell. JCI today is expected to continue its strenghtening trend and trade in 4521-4600 range.

Technical Market View

U.S. manufacturing contracted in November for the first time in three years as the sector buckled under the weight of a strong dollar and deep spending cuts by energy firms, but robust automobile sales suggested the economy remained on solid ground. The ISM national factory index fell to 48.6 last month, the weakest reading since June 2009 when the recession ended, from 50.1 in October. While a reading below 50 indicates a contraction in manufac-

turing, the index remains above 43.1, which is associated with a recession.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

Change 2.50%

Transaction Volume (m) 4,312

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 5,794

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,825

Market 2015 P/E (x) 13.0

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.8%

JCI 4,558

Global Indices

Dual Listing (NYSE)

Stock Price Rating Reason

WSKT 1675 Buy

WSKT formed white candle with increasing transaction volumes. We expect the stock to move upward today as stochastic indicator to form a golden cross. WSKT’s support-

PTPP 3670

Buy PTPP remains strong with potential upside in the range of 3620-3850 for today.

TLKM 2940 Buy

TLKM is expected to continue its strengthening

within the support and resistance levels of 2800-3125

SRIL 377 T r a d i n g Buy

Buy at level 368 and sell at 385

PWON 455 T r a d i n g Buy


ASRI 361 T r a d i n g Buy


Price Chg %

Dow Jones 17,888.4 168.4 1.0

Nasdaq 5,156.3 47.6 0.9

Nikkei 20,012.4 265 1.3

ST Times 2,870.3 14.3 0.5

FTSE 6,395.7 39.6 0.6

Hang Seng 22,381.4 385 1.7

Chg %

USD IDR 13,784 -63 -0.510 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.54 -0.1 -0.810 yr US govt bond (%) 2.2 -0.05 -2.4

Spread (%) 6.38 -0.02 1.6EIDO 21.0 0.6 2.7Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,996) -18 0.6

JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15

(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

News of the Day

Economy: November Inflation at 0.21% MoM

(4.89% YoY), inline

As expected, November produce thin inflation amounted

0.21% MoM (4.89% YoY), inline with our estimate of

0.19% MoM (4.89% YoY) while consensus expect to see

0.17% MoM (4.85% YoY).

Segment which contribute the most to the month inflation

were Food segment (0.15%), followed by housing

(0.03%), healthcare (0.02%), and transport (0.01%). We

noted price increase were seen broadly in food segment

post the harvest season period such as chilli (18%),

chicken (12%), and rice (4%). Meanwhile from the ad-

ministered side, 15 toll road have tariff adjustment per 1

Nov ‘15 by 12.3% (average).

Inflation going modestly during 2015 and coming down

faster than expected. Out of 10 months 2015, Indonesia

experienced deflation 4 times in January & February post

Jan’s fuel price cut and in September & October. Thus,

January-October 2015 inflation only recorded 2.16%.

Going conservatively account November-December infla-

tion at 1.2% will result in 3.35% full year 2015 inflation

Vs 4.5-5.5% our estimate and 3-5% of BI range. Going

forward in 2016, our 5.0% inflation is more on the con-

servative side.

ISAT: Launch 4G-1800Mhz in 21 cities (target

2015E: total 35 cities)

ISAT’s 4G-1800Mhz (launched on 30 Nov) covers: Makas-

sar, Balikpapan, Padang, Lampung, Denpasar, Surabaya,

Malang, Banyumas, Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Bandung,

Tasikmalaya, Jepara, Kudus, Pati, Rembang, Semarang,

Pontianak, Jakarta, Bogor, dan Sukabumi. The company

targets to add 14 cities for 4G-1800Mhz: Tuban, Tegal,

Pekalongan, Medan, Batam, Palembang, Banjarmasin,

Pekanbaru, Manado, Mataram, Madura, Pacitan, Cirebon,

serta Purwakarta. The company allocates 10Mhz on

1,800Mhz spectrum for 4G LTE aiming speed of 112Mbps.

ISAT also offers 4G LTE handset starting Rp899K and

InCloud (Indosat Cloud) application for Indosat Ooredo

users. Previously, EXCL (12 cities) and Telkomsel (11

cities) already launched 4G-1800Mhz. Source:

tekno.kompas.com, Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

Positive for ISAT as it managed to chase its launching for

4G-1800Mhz to compete with EXCL and Telkomsel

(TLKM).

WIKA: bagged Rp19.03tn new contract in 11M15

Notable contracts up to November includes: Oecusie airport

in Timor Leste (Rp1.01tn), hydro-fueled power plant in

Upper Cisokan (Rp931.84bn), New Priok Container Terminal

(Rp633.8bn), Passelorang dam in South Sulawesi

(Rp478bn) and Keureto dam in Aceh (Rp406.9bn). Source:

Bisnis Indonesia

Comment: WIKA bucked the trend with achieving Rp3.7tn

new contract in November, much higher compared to other

SOE contractors. This should provide WIKA with a positive

sentiment, providing its 9M15 result was also not disap-

pointing. ([email protected])

WSKT: Targeting Rp15tn loans

Funding source can come from bank loans and/or bonds or

notes issuance. Muhammad Choliq, Finance Director of

WSKT, mentioned around 70% of the loan will be used for

developing toll road segment, although the director has not

provided routes that may be taken by WSKT in the near

future. WSKT also plans to conduct IPO for its precast

segment in 2H16, intending to release 35-40% of its

shares, amounting to Rp3.5-4tn. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

BWPT: Opting for other form of agreement with Felda

According to Felda Global, the company is mulling to find

other investment plan with BWPT, with the possibility of

forming a JV, off-take agreement and other form of collabo-

ration. According to Investor Daily, Felda is expected to

require more than a month to renegotiate with BWPT re-

garding its investment term, taking into account Malaysian

political condition at the moment. Source: Investor Daily

WINS: obtained US$151.5mn new contracts

With time period of 6 months for exploration projects and 3

-5 years for drilling activities. The company aims to apply 2

new strategies; sell old vessels and buy new vessels with

good deals. In FY16, WINS aims to sell 10 old vessels num-

ber that have smaller size. Source: Kontan.

New Contracts

(IDRbn) WSKT ADHI PTPP

11M15 27,900 11,100 20,000

Nov-15 1,300 500 1,370

WIKA

19,030

3,730


News of the Day

MAPI: is eyeing for 11-12% YoY revenue growth

Which almost the same with FY15’s target of 12-13%

YoY revenue growth. The company also aims to have

50,000 sqm additional area across Indonesia (major

location in Jakarta area), by allocating Rp500bn CAPEX

from its internal cash. MAPI also applies other strategies

to push its performance; by entering e-commerce busi-

ness “MAPeMALL” which will be launched in December’

15, and issuing loyalty card program “MAP CLUB” which

will be launched in January’ 16. Source: Bisnis Indonesia.

Tobacco production to grow by 7% YoY in FY16

In FY16, Indonesia tobacco farmers association expects

tobacco production to reach 182k tonnes, vs 170k tonnes

FY15 expectation. It will be backed by expectation of

increasing cigarette production (+5.7% YoY FY16 target)

and the Government’s aim to replace import products

(100k tonnes at the current). Source: Kontan.

Tax Issue: Tax office head resigns

The director general of taxation Sigit Priadi Pramudito

resigned on Tuesday amid reports that government tax

revenues have fallen well below target. According to

Sigit, the tax revenue realization will only reach 80%-

82%, below the tolerable level which above 85%. Last

night, Finance Minister Bambang Brodgonegoro swore in

tax office regulation and law enforcement expert Ken

Dwijugiastiadi as acting tax office head until a permanent

official was appointed by the minister. Source: Jakarta

Post

Telco: Ministry to issue active sharing network

regulation in Dec 2015/Jan 2016

According to Ministry of Communication and Informatics,

this active infrastructure sharing will help to create more

efficient industry. Active infrastructure sharing will in-

clude e-Node sharing (technology equipment for 3G and

4G). The Ministerial regulation will propose active sharing

network as an option not requirement. According to

BRTI, 30% of operator’s cost is used for network cost.

BRTI said active infrastructure sharing using Radio Ac-

cess Network (RAN) option could potentially save the

cost by 40%. With the proposed regulation, the the

operators could compete in terms of service rather than

network in the future. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Banks: Some bankers remains optimistic on the

improved consumer and mortgage loan growth next

year

BBTN’s Consumer Director, Mansyur Nasution, expects a

19-20% YoY non-subsidized mortgage loan growth next

year as he is convinced with better domestic economy in

2016. At the same time, BBCA also remains optimistic that

its consumer business can increase by 10-12% YoY next

year by using the 5.0-5.3% GDP growth assumptions.

Source: Investor Daily ([email protected])

BBCA: this year’s credit cards transactions are lower

than last year’s

BBCA’s Head of Consumer Card, Santoso, considers the

lower transactions this year was due to slowing domestic

economy and IDR volatility. During December 2014, credit

card transactions growth could reach >20% MoM, he says.

Current average credit card transaction is Rp4.2tn per

month. The company targets to book Rp52tn total credit

cards transaction by the end of 2015. Source: Kontan

([email protected])

BBRI: to request shareholders’ approval this month

to acquire Bringin Life

The company had signed the conditional sales purchase

agreement (CSPA) with Dapen BRI (BRI Pension Funds)

and will ask for shareholders’ approval during extraordi-

nary general meeting in the upcoming December 14th,

2015. The acquisition value, however, remains undisclosed

and will be posted in the website later on, says CFO Haru

Koesmahargyo. Meanwhile, Dapen BRI will use the pro-

ceeds to diversifying its non-insurance business. According

to Dapen BRI’s 2014 annual report, its investments in

Bringin Life has fair value of Rp1.09tn, or up by 132.8%

from 2013. Source: Kontan ([email protected])

BBNI: expects to lend Rp9.6tn KUR next year

CEO Ahmad Baiquni remains optimistic that the company

has the capacity to lend KUR by 3 times budget this year

in 2016 by focusing on retail KUR lending. Until mid-

November 2015, BBNI’s micro KUR realization had reached

Rp1.5tn. The company targets Rp2tn in FY15. BBNI’s

strategy in lending micro KUR is by utilizing its branchless

banking services. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])


News of the Day

BBTN: to manage Rp20tn funds from Research,

Technology, and High Education Ministry

Funding and Retail Director, Sis Apik Wijayanto, mentions

this additional funding will provide ease to public housing

financing. He added that the Rp20tn funding includes

loan facility and savings for the ministry employees and

students, program funds provision, cash management

services, and other banking services. Source: Bisnis

Indonesia ([email protected])

Smartphone luxury tax (PPnBM tariff 10%) pro-

posal is under discussion beween Finance Minister

and Communication & Informatics Minister

Finance Minister proposes to add PPnBM to smartphone

priced Rp8mn, while Communication and Informatics

Minister suggest for USD1K (~Rp12-13mn) smartphone.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Investment: BKPM adds five more permits to fast-

track program

The Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) has added

five more permits to the package of licences that can be

processed in just three hours, an addition to the previous

three permits which was launched in late October. In

addition to the eight permits, investors can also obtain

their land booking document as part of the licensing

package in three hours. The so-called “Eight plus One in

Three Hours” policy also allows those investing outside

industrial estates to use the service. Before, it was only

applicable for those intending to open factories in indus-

trial estates. Source: Jakarta Post

Economy : Electricity subsidy could potentially

higher than budgeted

Energy and mineral resources minister, Sudirman Said,

stated that spending for electricity subsidy potentially

higher than budgeted in APBN 2016 as household which

use 450-900 VA (range that get subsidy) could be bigger

than anticipated. Government allocated Rp 38.4tn for

electricity subsidy in 2016, lower from Rp 73.1tn in 2015

as they started to implement floating price adjust to the

real economic price especially for the high voltage usage.

Per 1 Dec 2015, electricity tariff for 1,300 VA and 2,200

VA were increased by 12%. Source : Koran Tempo;

Kompas ([email protected])

PROPERTY: REITs regulation to be revised.

The government plans to revise their recent REITs incen-

tive, which was deemed to be unattractive to companies.

The revision could potentially mimic Singapore’s existing

regulation. MoF guided that Stamp duty could potentially

be lowered to how it is in Singapore, where would only

cost 3% (as opposed to 5% in Indonesia today). Source:

Investor Daily


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

-75 -44

-469

-151-13

-760

-321

-219

-1,395

-477

-25

-1,937

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-

15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-15

Feb-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Dec-14

Jan-1

5

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD

Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

0

50

100

150

200

250

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Dec-1

4

Jan-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/MT)

Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-1

5

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

(USD troy oz.)(Rp) ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Dec-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan-15

Feb-1

5

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

(USD/MT)(Rp)TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-1

5

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

Apr-

15

May-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Nov-1

5

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Nov -- -3.2 6.2

US Personal Income (%) Oct 0.4 0.4 0.1

US Personal Spending (%) Oct 0.3 0.1 0.1

US Durable Goods Orders (%) Oct P 1.5 -1.2 -1.2

US Durables Ex Transportation (%) Oct P 0.4 -0.4 -0.4

US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 21-Nov 271 260 271

US Continuing Claims ('000') 14-Nov 2140 2207 2175

US FHFA House Price Index MoM Sep 0.5 0.8 0.3

US Markit US Composite PMI Nov P -- 56.1 55

US Markit US Services PMI Nov P 55.1 56.5 54.8

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22-Nov -- 40.9 41.2

US New Home Sales ('000') Oct 500 495 468

US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F 93 91.3 93.1

11/26/2015 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 4.8 5.3 4.9

11/27/2015 EC Consumer Confidence Nov F -- -5.9 -6

11/30/2015 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov 54 48.7 56.2

US Pending Home Sales MoM Oct 1.3 54 -2.3

US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov -10 -4.9 -12.7

12/01/2015 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F 52.6 52.8 52.6

US Construction Spending MoM Oct 0.6 1 0.6

US ISM Manufacturing Nov 50.5 48.6 50.1

US ISM Prices Paid Nov 40 35.5 39

ID Nikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg Nov -- 46.9 47.8

ID CPI NSA MoM Nov 0.17 0.21 -0.1

ID CPI YoY Nov 4.85 4.89 6.3

ID CPI Core YoY Nov 4.91 4.77 5.0

EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F 52.8 52.8 52.8

EC Unemployment Rate Oct 10.8 10.7 10.8

CH Manufacturing PMI Nov 49.8 49.6 49.8

CH Caixin China PMI Mfg Nov 48.3 48.6 48.3

CH Caixin China PMI Composite Nov -- -- 49.9

CH Caixin China PMI Services Nov -- -- 52

12/02/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 27-Nov -- -- --

US ADP Employment Change ('000') Nov 188 -- 182

EC CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.3 -- 0.1

EC CPI Core YoY Nov A 1.1 -- 1.1

12/03/2015 ID Foreign Reserves (USDbn) Nov -- -- 100.7

EC Markit Eurozone Services PMI Nov F -- -- 54.6

EC Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Nov F -- -- 54.4

EC Retail Sales MoM Oct -- -- -0.1

EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate 3-Dec -- -- 0.1

EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate 3-Dec -- -- -0.2

EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3-Dec -- -- 0.3

12/08/2015 EC GDP SA QoQ 3Q P -- -- 0.3

EC GDP SA YoY 3Q P -- -- 1.6

CH Trade Balance (USD bn) Nov -- -- 61.6

CH Exports YoY Nov -- -- -6.9

CH Imports YoY Nov -- -- -18.8

12/09/2015 CH CPI YoY Nov -- -- 1.3

CH PPI YoY Nov -- -- -5.9

12/10/2015 CH New Yuan Loans CNY (USD bn) Nov -- -- 513.6

CH Money Supply M2 YoY Nov -- -- 13.5

12/12/2015 CH Retail Sales YoY Nov -- -- 11.0


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant


Statistics

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) -12.80% 4,312

YTD (USD) 5.67% 5,794

Moving Avg 20day 4,522 4,825

Moving Avg 50day 4,480 13.0

Moving Avg 200day 4,902 2.8%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 5,431.2 220.4 4.2 -12.4

JII 598.0 18.2 3.1 -13.5

LQ45 785.6 30.2 4.0 -12.6

JAKFIN Index 679.4 27.8 4.3 -7.1

JAKINFR Index 939.7 11.2 1.2 -19.0

JAKMINE Index 854.5 -2.8 -0.3 -37.6

JAKCONS Index 2,107.4 29.9 1.4 -3.2

JAKTRAD Index 808.7 6.1 0.8 -8.0

JAKMIND Index 1,106.4 63.9 6.1 -15.4

JAKBIND Index 413.0 16.8 4.2 -24.0

JAKPROP Index 482.4 8.3 1.7 -8.1

JAKAGRI Index 1,616.1 26.8 1.7 -31.3

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 184.4 1.9 1.02 -19.8

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 44.4 -0.2 -0.38 -22.4

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 41.9 0.2 0.48 -21.5

Natural Gas 2.2 -0.0 -0.18 -23.1

COAL (AUS Daily) 53.4 -0.1 -0.28 -13.9

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,472.5 28.3 1.96 -19.7

Nickel (USD/tonne) 8,980 80 0.90 -40.7

Tin (USD/tonne) 15,125 75 0.50 -22.0

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,063.5 -2.3 -0.22 -10.2

Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.1 0.0 0.10 -9.8

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,261 121.0 5.65 -1.3

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,296 52.1 4.19 -21.1

Corn (USD/bu.) 374 8.8 2.40 -5.9

Wheat (USD/bu.) 472 11.5 2.50 -20.1

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 889 8.3 0.94 -12.7

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.941 -0.006 -0.6 17.6

USDGBP UK 0.663 -0.001 -0.2 10.5

USDCHF Switzerland 1.026 -0.003 -0.3 2.6

USDCAD Canada 1.336 -0.000 -0.0 11.3

USDAUD Australia 1.366 -0.018 -1.3 13.8

USDNZD New Zealand 1.498 -0.022 -1.4 15.2

USDJPY Japan 122.87 -0.240 -0.2 2.6

USDCNY China 6.40 0.00 0.0 3.2

USDHKD Hongkong 7.752 -0.001 -0.0 -0.6

USDSGD Singapore 1.406 -0.005 -0.3 8.2

Rupiah Indonesia 13,784 -63.0 -0.5 11.3

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,710.1 15.72 0.93 0.02

SPX S&P 500 2,102.6 22.22 1.07 2.12

US

17,888.4 168.4 0.95 0.37

Nasdaq US 5,156.3 47.64 0.93 8.87

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 384.2 -1.19 -0.31 12.19

FTSE London 6,395.7 39.56 0.62 -2.60

DAX Jerman 11,261.2 -121.0 -1.06 14.84

CAC France 4,914.5 -43.07 -0.87 15.02

SMI Swiss 8,993.2 0.14 0.00 0.11

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 45,046.8 -74 -0.16 -9.92

MICEX Russia 1,773.0 1.92 0.11 26.95

SENSEX India 26,169.4 23.7 0.09 -4.84

NIFTY India 7,954.9 19.6 0.25 -3.96

SHCOMP China 3,456.3 10.90 0.32 6.85

SZCOMP China 2,198.3 -5.32 -0.24 55.33

Nikkei Japan 20,012.4 264.9 1.34 14.68

TPX Japan 1,602.0 21.70 1.37 13.82

HSI Hong kong 22,381.4 385 1.75 -5.18

KOSPI S.Korea 2,023.9 31.96 1.60 5.66

TAIEX Taiwan 8,463.3 142.7 1.71 -9.07

FSSTI Singapore 2,870.3 14.32 0.50 -14.71

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,357.0 -2.69 -0.20 -9.39

PCOMP Philipines 7,060.6 133.5 1.93 -2.35

KLCI Malaysia 1,682.4 10.21 0.61 -4.48

VNINDEX Vietnam 570.4 -2.79 -0.49 4.55

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

-1.3

-1.4

-1.5

-1.7

-1.7

-2.5

-2.5

-2.7

-4.1

-6.6

PWON

BIRD

INCO

HMSP

AMRT

JKON

BTPN

MIKA

ITMG

SMCB9.2

7.6

7.2

7.1

7.1

4.7

4.4

4.3

4.2

1.8

INTP

ASII

INDF

CPIN

BBCA

BMRI

BBRI

GGRM

BBNI

UNVR

417

379

339

324

210

180

127

101

95

94

- 200 400 600

BBRI

BBCA

TLKM

ASII

BBNI

BMRI

LPKR

MYRX

SSMS

UNTR

156

144

115

96

91

91

80

61

60

54

0 100 200

MYRX

ASRI

TLKM

LPKR

SSIA

BWPT

PPRO

TMPI

SSMS

ANTM

8,711

8,472

8,325

6,299

6,240

6,235

6,184

6,090

5,686

5,599

TLKM

BBNI

BBCA

BMRI

PGAS

UNTR

BBRI

ASII

LPKR

JSMR

JCI 4,557.7 111.2 2.5%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

115 out of 140 (82.14%) our technical calls are Correct during 02-30 Oct’15

Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,472 Weakening

4,455 -0.38% Correct

ASII 5,800 Spec Buy

5,900 1.72% Correct

SGRO 1,100 Spec Buy

1,165 5.91% Correct

BBNI 4,815 Spec Buy

4,755 -1.25% Incorrect\

BBRI 10,750 Spec Buy

10,525 -2.09% Incorrect\

PTPP 3,675 Trading Sell

3,810 3.67% Correct

GIAA 325 Sell

320 -1.54% Correct


JCI 4,609 Weakening

4,472 -2.97% Correct

TLKM 2,795 Sell

2,730 -2.33% Correct

JSMR 5,250 Sell

4,885 -6.95% Correct

SMGR 10,325 Sell

9,800 -5.08% Correct

LSIP 1,550 Buy

1,555 0.32% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Sell

4,815 -4.18% Correct

BBRI 11,100 Sell

10,750 -3.15% Correct


JCI 4,674 Weakening

4,609 -1.40% Correct

SGRO 1,085 Buy

1,090 0.46% Correct

LSIP 1,505 Buy

1,550 2.99% Correct

HMSP 84,250 Buy

92,000 9.20% Correct

JSMR 5,325 Buy

5,250 -1.41% Incorrect

BBNI 5,175 Sell

5,025 -2.90% Correct

BBRI 11,600 Sell

11,100 -4.31% Correct


JCI 4,692 Profit taking

4,674 -0.38% Correct

BBCA 13,650 Buy

13,650 0.00% Correct

BBTN 1,185 Buy

1,210 2.11% Correct

KLBF 1,465 Buy


GGRM 46,350 Sell

45,900 -0.97% Correct

BBRI 11,600 Sell

11,600 0.00% Correct

BBNI 5,300 Sell

5,175 -2.36% Correct


JCI 4,653 strengthened

4,692 0.83% Correct

PTPP 3,855 Buy

3,880 0.65% Correct

BBTN 1,185 Buy

1,185 0.00% Correct

TLKM 2,760 Buy

2,805 1.63% Correct

KLBF 1,460 Buy

1,465 0.34% Correct

BBNI 5,275 Buy

5,300 0.47% Correct

BBRI 11,200 Buy

11,600 3.57% Correct





4,653 1.50% Correct

PTPP 3,755 Buy

3,855 2.66% Correct

BBNI 5,225 Buy

5,275 0.96% Correct

BBRI 10,700 Buy

11,200 4.67% Correct

SMRA 1,510 Buy

1,620 7.28% Correct

BBTN 1,165 Buy

1,185 1.72% Correct

SRIL 388 Trd. Buy

389 0.26% Correct


JCI 4,605 Weakening

4,585 -0.45% Correct

AALI 20,400 Buy

21,475 5.27% Correct

LSIP 1,490 Buy

1,535 3.02% Correct

SMRA 1,475 Buy

1,510 2.37% Correct

BBRI 10,550 Buy

10,700 1.42% Correct

SMGR 11,250 Sell

10,725 -4.67% Correct

LPKR 1,300 Sell

1,295 -0.38% Correct


JCI 4,586 Strengthened

4,605 0.42% Correct

SMGR 10,575 Buy

11,250 6.38% Correct

KLBF 1,455 Buy


AALI 19,275 Buy

20,400 5.84% Correct

LSIP 1,360 Buy

1,490 9.56% Correct

TLKM 2,710 Buy

2,730 0.74% Correct

AKRA 6,025 Buy

6,075 0.83% Correct


JCI 4,570 Strengthened

4,586 0.35% Correct

JSMR 5,550 Buy

5,550 0.00% Correct

PWON 394 Buy

397 0.76% Correct

AALI 18,900 Buy

19,275 1.98% Correct

UNTR 19,625 Buy

19,975 1.78% Correct

KLBF 1,450 Spec Buy

1,455 0.34% Correct

SMGR 10,625 Sell

10,575 -0.47% Correct



4,570 1.06% Correct

ggrm 42,800 Buy

43,450 1.52% Correct

MIKA 2,940 Buy

2,945 0.17% Correct

ASII 6,300 Buy

6,500 3.17% Correct

PGAS 3,065 Buy


INCO 2,230 Spec Buy

2,280 2.24% Correct

ADRO 640 Spec Buy

645 0.78% Correct





4,522 0.33% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Buy

5,100 1.49% Correct

BBRI 10,125 Buy

10,300 1.73% Correct

SILO 12,350 Buy

12,175 -1.42% incorrect

ITMG 10,700 Buy

10,125 -5.37% incorrect

PTPP 3,655 Sell

3,585 -1.92% Correct

GGRM 42,975 Sell

42,800 -0.41% Correct



4,507 0.54% Correct

WIKA 3,050 Buy

3,005 -1.48% Correct

LPKR 1,225 Buy

1,235 0.82% Correct

LSIP 1,385 Buy


SILO 12,450 Buy

12,350 -0.80% Incorrect

BWPT 268 Trading Sell

257 -4.10% Incorrect

PGAS 2,965 Sell

2,995 1.01% Correct


JCI 4,631 Profit taking

4,483 -3.19% Correct

GGRM 44,325 Sell

43,000 -2.99% Correct

ROTI 1,160 Sell

1,100 -5.17% Correct

MAPI 3,125 Sell

3,000 -4.00% Correct

TLKM 2,695 Sell

2,640 -2.04% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Sell

4,835 -3.78% Correct

INCO 2,510 Sell

2,320 -7.57% Correct



4,631 0.90% Correct

PTPP 3,805 Buy

3,750 -1.45% Correct

GGRM 43,425 Buy

44,325 2.07% Correct

SMRA 1,420 Buy

1,440 1.41% Incorrect

BBRI 10,550 Buy


BBTN 1,095 Buy

1,135 3.65% Correct

SRIL 392 Trd. Buy

387 -1.28% Correct



4,631 0.90% Correct

NIRO 128 Buy

129 0.78% Correct

DMAS 230 Buy

229 -0.43% Correct

SMCB 1,100 Buy


ITMG 10,500 Buy


SRIL 392 Buy

387 -1.28% Correct

PGAS 3,000 Sell

3,130 4.33% Correct





4,491 0.10% Correct

TLKM 2,740 Buy

2,710 -1.09% Correct

TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,450 0.78% Correct

PWON 397 Buy


ASRI 398 Buy


ASII 6,125 Sell

6,325 3.27% Correct

PGAS 2,950 Sell

2,890 -2.03% Correct



4,631 0.90% Correct

TINS 710 Buy

720 1.41% Correct

INCO 2,310 Buy

2,510 8.66% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Sell


BBRI 10,550 Sell


PWON 416 Buy

413 -0.72% Correct

SMGR 10,550 Buy

10,600 0.47% Correct



4,446 2.35% Correct

AALI 20,325 Buy

20,000 -1.60% Correct

BMRI 8,200 Buy

8,900 8.54% Correct

PWON 367 Buy

383 4.36% Incorrect

BBNI 4,400 Buy


ITMG 10,000 Sell

10,175 1.75% Correct

SMGR 10,050 Spec Buy

10,075 0.25% Correct



4,344 3.23% Correct

ITMG 9,725 Spec Buy

10,000 2.83% Correct

PWON 339 Spec Buy

367 8.26% Correct

ANTM 404 Spec Buy

404 0.00% Incorrect

PTPP 3,585 Buy


GGRM 44,450 Buy

46,600 4.84% Correct

SSMS 1,730 Buy

1,795 3.76% Correct


JCI 4,255 Weakening

4,208 -1.11% Correct

PTPP 3,580 Buy

3,585 0.14% Correct

ASII 5,275 Buy

5,125 -2.84% Correct

AALI 19,300 Buy

19,100 -1.04% Incorrect

TINS 680 Buy


INCO 2,545 Buy

2,480 -2.55% Correct

GGRM 43,300 Buy

44,450 2.66% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Wisnu Budhiargo

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Patricia Gabriela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Kevie Aditya

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Jennifer Yapply

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

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Documents

TRIM Daily - trimegah.com · Nov ‘15 by 12.3% (average). Inflation going modestly during 2015 and coming down faster than expected. Out of 10 months 2015, Indonesia experienced