Keith BocianJosh Ho

Kate KennedyPaul Marshall

Stacy Roth

Haiti

Extreme Poverty 149th of 182 countries on

Human Development Index Nearly 80% of population lives

on $2 a day or less

Devastated by earthquake on January 12, 2010 230,000 people killed, 300,000

injured, 1 million homeless 250,000 residences and 30,000

buildings collapsed or severely damaged

Trilogy International Partners Bellevue, WA based

company Holds a portfolio of

international cell phone companies

Pioneer of introducing wireless in emerging markets

Purchased Voila, the second largest cell phone provider in Haiti in 2005

Wyclef Jean, Voila Spokesperson

Project Overview “Create a copper-free Haiti” Invest $100 million to rebuild

Haiti’s telecom infrastructure No landlines to be built – network

to be entirely wireless Project success is contingent on

government acceptance of key conditions Undo previous mobile phone

privatization efforts Allow Trilogy to obtain majority rights

to the available mobile spectrum Put a moratorium on new licensing

Return on Investment Potential

Market Growth Only 32% of Haitian have cell

phones10% use internet regularly= Lots of room for growth

Economic Growth International aid and private

investments may help revive Haiti’s economy

Abundant low-cost labor may make Haiti one of the “last frontiers” for manufacturing investments

Risk

Project RiskNeed Power, but Infrastructure is severely damagedConstruction might be delayed

Political Risk Widespread corruption; Ranked #168/180 countriesConsistent history of violent uprisings and natural disasters

Regulatory Risk Regulatory changes likely and unpredictable Time inconsistent preference problem

How valuable is a guarantee from the Haitian government?

% Change GDP, as Correlated with Events

Haiti Percent Change GDP, constant prices

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

USA & UN Sanctions due to coup

Natural Disasters destroy 80% of crops

Political turmoil

Risk Currency Risk

Consistent Devaluation of Haitian Currency (Gourde)○ 2000-present: 17 Gourdes/USD to 40 Gourdes/USD

High inflation○ Central Bank: Targets Price Stability & 10% inflation ○ But: Actual inflation averaged 20% from 2002-2007

Economic Risk Despite recent debt forgiveness:

Consistent twin deficitsLimited Opportunity for foreign investment:

Low Productivity: Infrastructure DestroyedLow Purchasing Power Adjustment to GDP

Recommendation Upsides

Opportunity to leverage existing investment and grow market share

Lots of room for growth in the Haitian market

Possibility of Haitian economy recovering and growing

Risks: Political - Unstable Regulatory – Time Inconsistency Project – Construction/Infrastructure Currency – Consistent Devaluation Economic – Few Signs of

Improvement

We recommend that Trilogy does not make this additional investment in Haiti