Trevor Butterworth: Critical Thinking about Research

8/12/2019 Trevor Butterworth: Critical Thinking about Research

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Wave Goodbye to the USA



Gnarly

• 300 feet – Daily Mail (UK)

•

80 feet – Newsweek• 75 feet – New York Daily News

• 60-160 feet – National Post (Canada)

• 30-70 feet – Washington Post

• 26 feet – New York Daily News



The New York Times…

“[La Palma] would likely create a

wave mass never before known to

written history… The wave woulddiminish a little as it crossed the

Atlantic, but if it hit the Atlantic

Seaboard it could be higher than theskyscrapers of Boston, New York,

Washington and Miami.”



…higher than Hollywood





Really?





Think as a historian would…

What happened afterprevious flank collapses?


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/trevor-butterworth-critical-thinking-about-research 9/46Lituya Bay, Alaska





What happened duringprevious tsunamis?



Thera: 60,000 Hiroshimas



A cold fusion tsunami

This is “ what we call a ‗cold

fusion tsunami‘ — it puts out

more energy than it takes infrom the collapse.”

—

Charles Mader, Editor,Science of Tsunami Hazards



―I get calls all the time from people

worried about whether they should

sell their homes, especially from

Florida. Even the governor —

Jeb

Bush's office — called. It's

ridiculous. This wave is not going to

happen.‖

— George Pararas-Carayannis



Indonesia, 2004:

23,000 Hiroshimas





2006: Los Alamos

National Laboratory Model



So what went wrong?



The curious case of

Lee Spievak’s finger



Trigger warning…





“You might become a believer in the power of magic

dust, when you see how a special powder re-grewthe tip of Lee Spievack‘s finger“

— CBS Evening News, February 7, 2008

“Doctors though believe that within the so called

pixie dust lies an amazing medical discovery”

– BBC News, April 30, 2008

“‘Pixie Dust’From Pig’s Bladder Regrows Man’s Finger”

– Fox News, May 1, 2008







It didn’t seem strange to any of the

news organizations covering thestory that Spievak’s brother made

the pixie dust…





Junk science often happens when

something turns out to be toogood to not be true…

or too bad not to be true either.



And it’s abetted by the quest for the

“perfect” story

―Journal editors, reviewers and grant-

review committees often look for a

scientific finding that is simple, clear and

complete — a ‗perfect‘ story. It is

therefore tempting for investigators to

submit selected data sets for publication,or even to massage data to fit the

underlying hypothesis.‖



“Big Sugar Tips The Balance

Of The Research Scale”

Forbes headline on ―Financial Conflictsof Interest and Reporting Bias

Regarding the Association between

Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Weight

Gain: A Systematic Review ofSystematic Reviews,‖ PLOS Medicine ,

2013.







―…the interests of the

food industry (increasedsales of their products) are

very different from those

of most researchers (the

honest pursuit of

knowledge)...‖ PLOS

Medicine Editors







While Dr. Soffritti's methods

, the Ramazzini cancer lab, which is financed by private bank

foundations, governments and 17,000

individual members, has earned considerable

credibility since it was founded in 1971 forits pioneering research on chemicals.”



some criticism…

FDA said Ramazzini studies unreliable

Study design differed from international guidelines

No formal report to EFSA

Not GLP compliant

Possible infection in the animal house

Pathology issues

Unique feed



An epidemic of

“deficient reporting”



0 for 52 = 100 percent failure



The “observational studies industry”

―It may not be appreciated how often

observational claims fail to replicate‖

— Stanley Young,

Assistant Director for Bioinformatics,National Institute for Statistical Sciences,Significance , 2011



“Implausible results

in human nutrition research”

―Almost every single nutrient has peer

reviewed publications associating it

with almost any outcome… Given tha

fanatical opinions abound in nutrition,

allegiance bias should also be

minimised.‖

— John Ioannidis,

BMJ, 16 November 2013



―Somewhere down the line, achieving an impact in the media

seems to have become the goal in itself… The craving of

scientists for publicity is fuelled by a hurried and

unquestioning media, an academic community that

disproportionately rewards publication in ‗high impact‘

journals such as Nature, and by research councils thatemphasise the importance of achieving ‗impact‘ while at the

same time delivering funding cuts.‖

Dr. Chris Chambers, Cardiff University Brain Research Imaging Centre; Dr. Sven

Bestmann,Institute of Neurology, University College London; Dr Elena Rusconi,

Department of Neurosciences, University of Parma



The old media paradigm

―Most journalists seem unable to judge

whether numbers are really meaningful or

accurate. Consequently, they either trust

all figures or they trust none; and they

tend to focus exclusively on a report

writer's conclusions, while ignoring

specific numbers and data collection

techniques.‖

.



“Data driven journalism

is the future” – Sir Tim Berners Lee



And the new paradigm for journalism

meets a changing frame for science:



An opportunity?



Documents

Trevor Butterworth: Critical Thinking about Research