Trends In Hotel Capital Markets - Hotel Law Blog In Hotel Capital Markets David Loeb ... Feb 2010 Sofitel Washington DC 237 $95,000 $401 ... Transaction Case Study:

Real Estate ResearchMay 4, 2010

Trends In Hotel Capital Markets

David LoebManaging Director, Senior Real Estate and Hotel Research AnalystRobert W. Baird & Co. [email protected] 765 7063414.765.7063

Please refer to Appendix - Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification on page 33.

Today’s TopicsToday s Topics

•Hotel debt capital markets far from healedp

•Hotel transaction market slowly improvingy p g

•Public equity market happily chasing hotelsq y pp y g

•Conclusions

•QuestionsQ

Baird Real Estate Research | 2

R l E D b C i l M kReal Estate Debt Capital Markets

Lots of Debt Outstandingg

Commercial and Multifamily Debt Outstanding - Year-End 2009

$3.38 Trillion of Outstanding Commercial/Multuifamily Mortgages

Government-sponsored t i

Savings institutions6%

Agency-and GSE-backed mortgage pools

5%

$3 38 o o Outsta d g Co e c a / u tu a y o tgages

Commercial bankingLife insurance companies

10%

enterprises7%

g49%

CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues

23%


Source: Federal Reserve

Refinancing Will Be Hot Topic for YearsRefinancing Will Be Hot Topic for Years

CMBS Issuance 1991-2009 (billions)

300

350

150

200

250

Non-US CMBS Issuance

US CMBS Issuance

50

100

Source: Bloomberg

01991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Significant Maturities Across Property Typesg p y yp

CMBS Maturities 2010-2017 (millions)140,000

100,000

120,000

,

Retail

R id ti l

40,000

60,000

80,000 Residential

Other

Office

N/A

Industrial

0

20,000

,

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Industrial

Hotel

Source: Bloomberg


Another Maturity Wave Lies Ahead for HotelsAnother Maturity Wave Lies Ahead for Hotels

Hotel CMBS Loan Maturities By Year

$20

$14

$16

$18

$20

llion

s)

$8

$10

$12

Current

Delinquent

aid

bala

nce

($bi

$0

$2

$4

$6

Curr

ent u

npa

Source: Realpoint

$0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

and

be

yond


Delinquency rates getting worseDelinquency rates getting worse

Hotel loan delinquency rate by month (as % of total CMBS hotel loans)

10.0%

12.0%

4 0%

6.0%

8.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Source: Realpoint


Spreads on Existing Debt are NarrowingSpreads on Existing Debt are Narrowing

CMBS Spreads

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

sury

800

1,000

1,200

ad to

10

Year

Tre

as

Super Senior AAA

AAA mezz

-

200

400

600

Spre

a

Source: Bloomberg


The Problem: Extend and Pretend WorkedThe Problem: Extend and Pretend Worked

• Many lenders opted to work with borrowers, ignore delinquencies or offer more timeignore delinquencies, or offer more time

• Bet has been that cycle will turn up, increasing d bt i d ll t l ldebt service coverage and collateral value

• Smaller banks under increasing regulatory d l i h b d lpressure to deal with bad loans

• Still WAY too much debt coming due relative to available new debt

• Additional equity is the ultimate answer—property and entity level


Transaction Markets

Hotel Transactions Are RecoveringHotel Transactions Are RecoveringUnited States Hotel Transactions

3550 0

31 0

46.0

28 24 29

30

2423 23

24

3130 30 31

25 25

30

35

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

d ($

000)

billi

on)

9 815.0

21.5

31.0

19

16

19

16 15

2123 23

21

15

20

15 0

20.0

25.0

30.0

r ke

y pr

ice

pai

on V

olum

ne ($

b

5.12.0 2.5 2.3 3.0 4.0

8.0

9.810.1

5.1 5.0 5.13.0

6.08.0

2.03.5

0

5

10

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 F

Aver

age

pe

Tran

sact

io

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

F

Transaction volume Per key


Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels

Recent Hotel Sales Utilized Public CapitalRecent Hotel Sales Utilized Public CapitalRecent Hotel Transactions

Date Hotel RoomsPrice

Per key CommentsDate Hotel Rooms ($000s) Per key Comments

Feb 2010 Holiday Inn Express - Times Square 210 $56,500 $269 McSam to Hersha Hospitality. Reported 8.2% cap on 2010

Feb 2010 Candlew ood Suites-Times Square 188 $51,000 $271 McSam to Hersha Hospitality. Reported 8.2% cap on 2010

Feb 2010 Hampton Inn Times Square 184 $56 000 $304 McSam to Hersha Hospitality. Reported 8.2% cap on Feb 2010 Hampton Inn-Times Square 184 $56,000 $304 p y p p2010

Feb 2010 Sofitel Washington DC 237 $95,000 $401 Whitehall/GEM sold to LHO for 15.7x '09 EBITDA (ex-inauguration)

March 2010 W New York - The Court/Tuscany 328 $78,000 $238 Starw ood sold - w ill lose W flag- convert to St. Giles Hotels

M h 2010 A b d E t H t l Chi 285 $25 000 $88 I Sh b ht f P t D d D id BMarch 2010 Ambassador East Hotel, Chicago 285 $25,000 $88 Ian Shrager bought from Peter Dumon and David Bossy

March 2010 Marriott - Houston Energy Corridor 206 $50,750 $246 Apple 9, bought from MWE Houston Property LP

March 2010 Raffles L'Ermitage - Berverly Hills 119 $44,800 $376 Viceroy bought from Colony

M h 2010 F S S F i 277 $107 500 $388 W tb k b ht 67% i t t f Mill i P tMarch 2010 Four Seasons San Francisco 277 $107,500 $388 Westbrook bought 67% interest from Millennium Partners

March 2010 Four Seasons Miami 221 $60,000 $271 Westbrook bought 67% interest from Millennium Partners

March 2010 Ritz-Carlton Boston 193 $37,500 $194 Westbrook bought 67% interest from Millennium Partners


Source: Baird Research. Highlighted transactions involved public company purchasing the hotels

Recent Hotel Sales Utilized Public CapitalRecent Hotel Sales Utilized Public CapitalRecent Hotel Transactions

D t H t l RPrice

P k C tDate Hotel Rooms ($000s) Per key Comments

March 2010 Hyatt Boston 498 $112,000 $225 Hyatt sold to Chesapeake, reported to be 7% cap TTM

March 2010 Sheraton, Pleasanton, CA 170 $12,300 $72 Mesa West Capital sold

Purchased by Shenzhen New World in foreclosureMarch 2010 Marriott Dow ntow n Los Angeles 469 $60,000 $128 Purchased by Shenzhen New World in foreclosure previously Manco Capital. $13 mm renovation scheduled

March 2010 Hampton Inn and Suites, Beale Street Memphis

144 $20,000 $139 Fairw ood Hospitality acquired

March 2010 Tow nePlace Suites, Panama City, FL 103 $10,600 $103 Apple 9 acquired

April 2010 St. Regis Monarch Beach 400 $230,000 $575Citi took over w ith mezz in late '09-sold to Washington Holdings. Cancelled $230 mm first, now reported to have $165 mm first and $40 mm mezz

April 2010Marriott and Independent in Rochester, MN, Courtyard LAX 653 $83,000 $127

9.6x 2009 EBITDA. Sunstone bought these hotels from their lender after tried to w alk aw ay

RLJ D l t ld t Ch th L d i T t Will tApril 2010 Portfolio of 6 Homew ood Suites 813 $73,500 $90 RLJ Development sold to Chatham Lodging Trust. Will get $11 million capex.

April 2010 Embassy Suites, Tampa Convention Center

360 $77,000 $214 RLJ Development purchased from Whiteco Industries

May 2010 Hilton Checkers, Los Angeles, Courtyard Anaheim

341 $71,000 $208 Chesapeake purchased from Tarsadia. Baird estimates 7.25% blended cap


Source: Baird Research. Highlighted transactions involved public company purchasing the hotels

Public Companies Play Lead RolePublic Companies Play Lead Role• 28 institutional deals and 6,500 rooms uncovered by Baird Research so far in 2010$1 34 billi f t• $1.34 billion of assets

• Public companies have emerged as key capital providers, with ability to recapitalize larger properties

Summary of YTD Hotel Deal Flow

Number of Hotels Dollar Amount

Public

Ownership of Existing Hotel Rooms

Private40% Public

47%Private

4%

Public60%

40% 47%Private53%

Private

Baird Real Estate Research | 15Source: Baird Research

Private96%

Approximately 4.8 million U.S. hotel rooms

Transaction Case Study: HershaTransaction Case Study: Hersha

Deal Specifics:• Acquired three limited service hotels in Times Square area on 39th

between 8th and 9th. • Paid $163.5 million for 582 rooms ($281k/key)

Company estimates 2010E cap rate of 8 3%• Company estimates 2010E cap rate of 8.3%

Deal Financing:• Funded primarily with newly issued equity• Completed TWO equity offerings totaling $272 million• Deals announced, but not closed, prior to first equity raise• Both equity offerings were well over-subscribed• Hotels owned with no property debt today


Transaction Case Study: LaSalleTransaction Case Study: LaSalle

Deal Specifics:• Acquired Sofitel Washington D.C• Paid $95 million for 237 rooms ($401k/key)• Baird estimated cap rate of 5.7% on 2009 EBITDA (ex-inauguration)

Deal Financing:• Funded with newly sold equity AFTER the deal was announced and closed• Funded with newly sold equity AFTER the deal was announced and closed• Today hotel is owned without property debt


Transaction Case Study: SunstoneTransaction Case Study: Sunstone

Deal Specifics:• Acquired 3 hotels: Marriott & Independent in Rochester, MN, Courtyard LAX• Paid $83 million for 635 rooms ($127k/key)• Baird estimated cap rate of 8.75% on 2009 EBITDA

Deal Financing:• “Acquired” by paying release fee as part of returning large portfolio from • Acquired by paying release fee as part of returning large portfolio from

lender; Sunstone just kept ownership, while handing keys on remaining asset to lender

• Funded with excess cash on hand as Sunstone has no credit facility• Today hotels owned without property debt


The Solution: Become a SellerThe Solution: Become a Seller

• Not that much on the market and lots of buyers looking

• Cap rates are down prices are up• Cap rates are down, prices are up• Public companies have a lower cost of capital

Lesson from 2007: It pays to swim against the tide so take your profits against the tide, so take your profits

when others see more value than you do


P bli E i M kPublic Equity Markets

Don’t Look to Private EquityDon t Look to Private Equity

Real Estate Private Equity Fund Raising: Capital Raising

37.3

29.831.6 31.8

39.5 39.5

30

35

40

45

lion)

23

19.8

16.7

15

20

25

30

pita

l Rai

sed

($bi

ll

10.3

2.5

0

5

10

1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09

Cap

Source: Preqin


PE Raising Less than TargetingPE Raising Less than Targeting

Real Estate Private Equity Fund Raising: Final Closing as a Percentage of Target

34%

31%35%

40%

82% of 2009 funds on the road fell short of fund raising goals compared to only 20% in

20%18%

20%

25%

19%

24%

27%

20%

25%

30%

ised

($b

illio

n)

20072008

2007

3% 4%

13%15%

10%8% 8%

4%

12%

4%5%

10%

15%

Capi

tal R

ai

2009

Source: Preqin

3% 2%0%

0%

5%

Below 49% 50% - 70% 80% - 90% 100% 101% - 120% 121%- 150% Above 150%


Hotel Stocks Up Sharply As Investors Seek Recovery Investment Vehicles

Baird Hospitality and Major Stock Indices

Since 2000 Since 2009

3,500

4,000

4,500 Since 2000

2,000

2,500Since 2009

2,500

3,000

1,500

1,000

1,500

2,000

500

1,000

0

500

Jan-

00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

Jul-0

4

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

0

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10


Source: Baird Research, SNL Financial

Hospitality Index S&P 500 RMZ Hospitality Index S&P 500 RMZ

Public Markets Discounting the RecoveryPublic Markets Discounting the Recovery• Public market EBITDA multiples are at cyclical peaks • Private market cap rates are at cyclical lows

Historical Hotel REIT EBITDA Multiples for Select Companies

All hotel stock buyers appear to be discounting a strong recovery

16.918.0

20.0

Multip

le

LHO

11.6 11 312 0

14.0

16.0

d Ye

ar EBITD

A M

HST

DRH

AHT

HT10.4

11.3

8.0

10.0

12.0

Forw

ard HT

AVERAGE

Baird Real Estate Research | 24Source: Baird Research

2007 2008 2009 2010

Public Companies Actively Raising Equity . . .Public Companies Actively Raising Equity . . .

Public Hotel Equity Raised Since 2008

Completion Equity Completion EquityIssuer Date Proceeds ($000s) Issuer Date Proceeds ($000s)Hersha Hospitality Trust 05/13/08 65,340 Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. 10/16/09 165,600Apple REIT Eight, Inc. 06/30/08 950,000 Pebblebrook Hotel Trust 12/08/09 402,500pp g , , ,Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. 11/14/08 55,185 Pebblebrook Hotel Trust 12/08/09 2,700DiamondRock Hospitality Company 04/14/09 86,451 DiamondRock Hospitality Company 12/31/09 49,383LaSalle Hotel Properties 04/23/09 124,861 Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 12/31/09 157,350Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 04/24/09 499,950 Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. 01/12/10 138,000Orient-Express Hotels Ltd. 04/28/09 148,781 Hersha Hospitality Trust 01/14/10 155,250Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. 05/21/09 103,500 MHI Hospitality Corporation 01/15/10 3,412Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. 05/21/09 103,500 MHI Hospitality Corporation 01/15/10 3,412LaSalle Hotel Properties 06/10/09 147,500 Chesapeake Lodging Trust 01/21/10 151,717Hospitality Properties Trust 06/18/09 231,438 Chesapeake Lodging Trust 01/21/10 3,000Hersha Hospitality Trust 08/04/09 14,250 Chesapeake Lodging Trust 01/21/10 25,517Hospitality Properties Trust 08/11/09 158,700 LaSalle Hotel Properties 03/02/10 113,821DiamondRock Hospitality Company 09/11/09 53,504 Hersha Hospitality Trust 03/19/10 117,300Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 09/11/09 130 000 Chatham Lodging Trust 04/15/10 172 500Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 09/11/09 130,000 Chatham Lodging Trust 04/15/10 172,500DiamondRock Hospitality Company 10/08/09 21,495 Chatham Lodging Trust 04/15/10 10,000

Total $4,459,005Note: Hyatt IPO raised an additional $1.1 billion from public hotel investors, but was not new equity

Source: SNL Financial and Baird Research


Source: SNL Financial and Baird Research

. . . and Using Proceeds for De-leveraging. . . and Using Proceeds for De leveraging

• The new normal is expected to be much lower financial leverageT d ’ d bt t EBITDA f 5 3 l k lik 3 8 2007 EBITDA b i • Today’s debt to EBITDA of 5.3x looks like 3.8x on a 2007 EBITDA basis, when EBITDA was roughly 40% higher than today

• Hotel companies are deleveraging by unencumbering specific assets or through purchasing with 100% cash

Historical Hotel REIT Leverage: Debt /EBITDA for Select Companies

6.67.0

8.0

4.34.5

5.3

5.0

6.0

/ EBITDA

Multip

le

LHO

HST

DRH

HT

2.0

3.0

4.0

2007 2008 2009 2010

Debt / HT

AVERAGE


Source: Baird Research

2007 2008 2009 2010

Public Markets Offer Solution to PrivatePublic Markets Offer Solution to PrivateMarket Leverage

• Rescue financing, 2010 (and beyond) edition• Valuations quite attractive• Large and small portfolios may seek public exit• Opportunistic buyers looking for public capital (blind pool IPOs)(blind pool IPOs)

• Now-private companies may seek public exit –Hilton is best example of possible IPO, but there could be a number of others

• Looming debt maturities can be catalyst, but public valuation can create great outcomespublic valuation can create great outcomes


“Blind Pool” IPOsBlind Pool IPOs• Public market investors becoming increasingly skeptical• Bar is being raised for each successive dealBar is being raised for each successive deal• Pristine corporate governance is a must• Differentiated business plan or credible “twist” required• Management reputation / track record is important• $767 million raised so far, another $525 million is trying

Public Hotel Equity Blind Pools, Near Blind Pools, Attempted Blind Pools, and Blind Pool Wanna Be

Completion EquityIssuer Ticker Date Proceeds ($mil)

CompletedpPebblebrook Hotel Trust PEB 12/08/09 $405Chesapeake Lodging Trust CHSP 01/21/10 $180Chatham Lodging Trust CLDT 04/15/10 $182

$767In registrationPyramid Hotels and Resorts PYR 12/08/09 $275


Pyramid Hotels and Resorts PYR 12/08/09 $275Reunion Hotel Trust RBSC 01/21/10 $250

Source: Baird Research

ConclusionsConclusions• Extend and pretend—So crazy, it just might work! And has, so far

• Now could be a great time to sell assets

• Public equity investors are hungry for real companies; too little stock to go real companies; too little stock to go around today, as investors keep looking for more ways to invest in hotels

• By this time next year, expect 3-6 more public hotel companiespublic hotel companies


Questions?

To Get Our Research, Send Full ContactTo Get Our Research, Send Full Contact Information to:

David Loebdloeb@rwbaird [email protected]

414-765-7063

• Hospitality Monthly• Industry and company research• This presentationThis presentation


Baird Hospitality Real Estate ContactsBaird Hospitality Real Estate Contacts

Research Investment Banking Trading

David [email protected]

Mark Decker, [email protected]

Mike Lanigan [email protected]@rwbaird.com

414.765.7063

Andrew J. [email protected]

[email protected]

Mark Decker, [email protected]

[email protected]

Jeff [email protected]

Brian [email protected]

Justin Glasgow

Equity Capital Markets

Rick [email protected] 609 5480g

[email protected]

312.609.5480


Appendix – Important Disclosures and pp pAnalyst Certification

Robert W. Baird & Co. and/or its affiliates expect to receive or intend to seek investment banking related compensation from thecompany or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.company or companies mentioned in this report within the next three months.

Investment Ratings: Outperform (O) - Expected to outperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equitymarket over the next 12 months. Neutral (N) - Expected to perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next 12months. Underperform (U) - Expected to underperform on a total return, risk-adjusted basis the broader U.S. equity marketover the next 12 months.

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f i k C h i i i l d hi h b l h l d i b i i dacceptance of risk. Company characteristics may include: higher balance-sheet leverage, dynamic business environments, andhigher levels of earnings and price volatility. S - Speculative Risk - High-growth situations appropriate only for investors willingto accept a high degree of volatility and risk. Company characteristics may include: unpredictable earnings, small capitalization,aggressive growth strategies, rapidly changing market dynamics, high leverage, extreme price volatility and unknown competitivechallenges.

Valuation, Ratings and Risks. The recommendation and price target contained within this report are based on a time horizon of12 months but there is no guarantee the objective will be achieved within the specified time horizon. Price targets are determinedby a subjective review of fundamental and/or quantitative factors of the issuer, its industry, and the security type. A variety ofmethods may be used to determine the value of a security including, but not limited to, discounted cash flow, earnings multiples,peer group comparisons, and sum of the parts. Overall market risk, interest rate risk, and general economic risks impact allsecurities Specific information regarding the price target and recommendation is provided in the text of our most recent researchsecurities. Specific information regarding the price target and recommendation is provided in the text of our most recent researchreport.

Distribution of Investment Ratings. As of April 30, 2010, Baird U.S. Equity Research covered 616 companies, with 49%rated Outperform/Buy, 48% rated Neutral/Hold and 3% rated Underperform/Sell. Within these rating categories, 11% ofOutperform/Buy-rated, and 8% of Neutral/Hold-rated, and 12% of Underperform/Sell-rated companies have compensated Bairdfor investment banking services in the past 12 months and/or Baird managed or co-managed a public offering of securities forthese companies in the past 12 months.

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Analyst compensation is derived from all revenue sources of the firm, including revenues from investment banking. Baird doesnot compensate research analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.

A complete listing of all companies covered by Baird U.S. Equity Research and applicable research disclosures can be accessedp g p y q y ppat http://www.rwbaird.com/research-insights/research/coverage/research-disclosure.aspxYou can also call 1-800-792-2473 orwrite: Robert W. Baird & Co., Equity Research, 24th Floor, 777 E. Wisconsin Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53202.

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Documents

Trends In Hotel Capital Markets - Hotel Law Blog In Hotel Capital Markets David Loeb ... Feb 2010 Sofitel Washington DC 237 $95,000 $401 ... Transaction Case Study: