TRENDS IN FAMILY BEHAVIOUR: FERTILITY PATTERNS

LEAVE POLICIES & RESEARCH, Praha 10. - 11. 2009

Jitka RychtaříkováDepartment of Demography and

Geodemography Faculty of Science, Charles University in

Prague Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha, Czech Republic

rychta@natur.cuni.cz +420 221951420

Outline

Cohort and cross-sectional perspective

Age profiles Birth order Marital status Education Contraception Day care Attitudes towards having another

child

Decrease in fertility also confirmed from a cohort perspective

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

completed fertility rate

total fertility rate

birth

coh

ort

1930

birth

coh

ort

1940

birth

coh

ort

195

0

birth

coh

ort

196

0

birth

coh

ort

1970

birt

coho

rt 19

81

Pro-family measures implemented

Promised pro-familymeasures never implemented

Fertility decrease and a rise in the age of mothers at childbirth

Sum of age-specific fertility rates: cross-sectional and cohort view

2008

The lowest total fertility rate in the Czech Republic (1,13) was recorded

in 1999. For the first time in the history of fertility in the Czech Republic

(the Czech Lands) there were fewer than 1,5 live births per woman for an extended period of time (between 1995 and 2005 the figure was even lower - below 1,3); at present, 1,5 is the average total fertility of the European Union.

The long-term trends of both basic general indicators of women’s fertility, i.e. total fertility rate (the average number of live-born children per woman of reproductive age within a calendar year) and completed fertility rate (the average number of live-born children per woman of reproductive age within a given generation of women) indicate that the recent changes signify a clear turning point in reproductive patterns and they also lessen the likelihood that there will be a return to the pattern of simple reproduction, i.e. to the average of two children per woman of reproductive age

After a short and moderate baby-boom, oscillations in TFR have been related to actual population

climate

LOCALMinima Maxima

Year TFR Number of live births Year TFR Number of live births1960 2,11 128 879 1964 2,36 154 4201968 1,83 137 437 1974 2,43 194 2151999 1,13 89 471

Minima Maxima CFR (completed fertility rate)

Birth cohort Birth cohort1943 2,02 1950 2,101981 1,52 1951 2,10

CURRENT FIGURESYear TFR Number of live births Mean age at first childbirth2008 1,50 119 570 27,33

AGE

The birth cohort 1950 was the “luckiest“and documented the success of family policy measures of

the 1970’s

Low percentage of childless

women 6,5%

Only one child

women 14 %

Two child women 54

%

Three child women 21

%

0

50

100

150

200

250

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

Age-specific fertility rate p. 1000 women

Birth cohorts

age

CFR=2,10

Recent changes in age intensity profile and fertility timing

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Age-specific fertility rates

Mean age at first childbirth

20-24

25-29

-19

35-3940+

30-34

Year

Mean age at first childbirth

The only ‘visible’ gain was recorded in the category of women aged 30-34

However, this positive trend does not offset the decrease in fertility intensity recorded among young women aged 24 and under.

The same trend can be observed from cohort perspective.

Rapid shift by 9 years within 20 year period

Modal age1988: 211998: 242008: 30

0,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

0,16

0,18

0,20

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1988

1998

2008

Age-specific fertility rates

Years

The most numerous 1974 birth cohort has been affected the most by the transformation of the

1990’s

In the year 1993 women were 19 and in 2008 at age of 34.

It combines low fertility before the

age of 26-27 and slight

compensation afterwards. 0

50

100

150

200

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

Age-specific fertility rate p. 1000 women

Birth cohorts

age

BIRTH ORDER

Changes in cross-sectional childlessness:1988: 8,8 % 1998: 47,3 %

2008: 26,5 %(percentage of childless women)

Decrease in the first and second birth order fertility contributes the most to the current drop

Click icon to add picture

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1 2 3 4+

Year

Total fertility rate by birth order

Birth order

Unlike age, birth order fertility changes less over time and says more about the final number of children.

Between 1986 and 2008, in the Czech Republic fertility rates primarily decreased in the first-order and second-order.

Like with total fertility rate, the current rate of total first-order fertility is at the same level as in 1994 and the second-order fertility rate corresponds to levels in 1994-1995.

Fertility decrease affected all significant birth orders; is that the impact of postponement?

TFR 1988:

1st 0,912

2nd 0,733

3rd 0,220

TFR 2008:

1st 0,734

2nd 0,548

3rd 0,1560,00

0,02

0,04

0,06

0,08

0,10

0,12

0,14

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1_1988

2_1988

3_1988

1_2008

2_2008

3_2008

age

Age and birth order specific fertility rates

EXTRAMARITAL FERTILITY

Increase in extramarital fertility mostly for the 1st birth order

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Perc

enta

ge o

f liv

e ex

tra-

mar

ital b

irths

by

birt

h or

der 1

2

3

4+

Total

A new and significant feature of fertility in the Czech Republic is the growing percentage of extramarital

births.

Until the start of the 1990s, extramarital births made up no more than 10% of the total.

Nevertheless, the share of extramarital births is very differentiated by birth order.

Extramarital fertility is higly prevalent among women with lower educational attainment.

Higher education more traditional behaviour

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

BasicVocationalSecondaryUniversityTotal

Percentage of extramarital live births by educational attainment

34,3 %

OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS

Factors contributing to fertility change

Contraception

Break with the past conditions for parenthood

Factual deterioration for reconciling work and family

Increased use of modern contraception has contributed to induced abortion (LIA) decline

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

hormonalIUDLIA

cont

race

ptio

n us

e p.

1000

wom

en

indu

ced

abor

tions

p.1

000

wom

en

year

Disappearence of daycare for children under the age of

three

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

CrechesKindergarten

Percentage of children in daycare

Number of Number of

Year creches places

1960 884 30711

1965 1122 44917

1970 1321 53272

1975 1504 57634

1980 1672 69828

1985 1794 72773

1990 1043 39829

1995 207 7574

2000 65 1867

2005 54 1671

2007 49 1587

Note: more than 100 % ; children younger than 3 years are enrolled

4 444 respondents: 1 685 males and 2 759 females aged 18-49

Generations and Gender Survey: second wave 2008

Click icon to add pictureParameter Odds Confidence LimitsSex of respondent estimate Pr > ChiSq Ratios

female vs male -0,2044 0,0182 0,815 0,688 0,966

Living with a partner togetheryes vs no 0,8018 <,0001 2,230 1,828 2,719

Educationbasic vs secondary -0,1807 0,1320 0,835 0,660 1,056

vocational versus secondary 0,0514 0,6103 1,053 0,864 1,283university vs secondary 0,4131 0,0023 1,511 1,159 1,971

Age18-29 vs 30-39 -0,1001 0,3429 0,905 0,736 1,11340-49 vs 30-39 -2,1800 <,0001 0,113 0,086 0,148

Resident biological children0 vs 2 2,4841 <,0001 11,990 8,689 16,5451 vs 2 2,0628 <,0001 7,868 5,780 10,709

3+ vs 2 -1,9338 0,0066 0,145 0,036 0,583

Religionother vs none 0,4579 0,0053 1,581 1,146 2,181

roman catholic vs none 0,2500 0,0197 1,284 1,041 1,584

Who wants

another baby now*Males

*University

educated

*Without a child or

having one

*Religious

affiliation

People’s attitudes towards parenthood slowly change

People still value children, however, increasingly among highly educated and males.

When looking at recent fertility patterns in the Czech Republic, a low-fertility trap will pose a real potential barrier to sustaining Czech population development in the future.