Trends in European Light Vehicle Production - · PDF file+18% Growth, of the global automotive production during the next five years

© 2015 IHS

Presentation

ihs.com

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

Trends in European Light Vehicle Production

IHS Automotive Customer Briefing – Frankfurt | 17 June 2015

Mario Franjicevic

Senior Analyst

+49 6920973332

[email protected]

© 2015 IHS 2


First and Last Name in Bold, Title, +1 xxx xxx xxxx, [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

+18% Growth, of the global automotive

production during the next five years

© 2015 IHS 4

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

en

+15M

Global Light Vehicle Forecast

Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast

© 2015 IHS 5

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ione

n Europe

North AmericaJapan/KoreaGreater ChinaMiddle East/AfricaSouth AmericaSouth Asia

today

Traditional OEMs

work their ways

East- or Off-

Shore, closer to

final markets

North America,

boosted by export,

industry

restructured,

increased global

integration

Japan: continues

to focus on luxury

efforts.

Korea: exports

balanced against

regional

expansion

EU: restructuring

delayed by

scrappage

programs, political

wranglings and

labour rigidities

China: Majority of

efforts are

intrinsically

focused – exports

will emerge later

Global Light Vehicle Forecast

Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast by Region

© 2015 IHS

Presentation Name / Month 2014

6

50% of light vehicle production growth from

2014 until 2020 is coming from China.

© 2015 IHS 7

Urbanization,

traffic jams and

nox emissions

The average age of

a new car buyer is

gradually

increasing, with

decreasing birth

rates

New traffic and

mobility concepts

threaten the new

car sales market

Household budget

spending shift to

lifestyle,

technology and

fashion

NEW TRENDS IN

THE OLD WORLD

New trends are decelerating new car sales

growth dynamics in mature markets.

© 2015 IHS 8

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ion

en

Production

Sales

Restructuring

delayed by

scrappage

programs, political

wrangling and labor

rigidities

New OEMs have

‘skipped’ to C/E EU

investment

Traditional OEMs

working their way

east or off-shore,

closer to final

markets

Europe is quietly

transforming from

an import to an

export market.

Source: IHS


Europe (without Russia*) Sales & Production *Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Sales peak in 2007 is „history“

© 2015 IHS 9

71% 29%

Growth Sales

2014-2020

Share of

Import

(11%)

2014

Production

In Europe

13.3%

13.0% 7.2%

20.4%


Europe – Mainstream vs. Premium Brands

80% 2014

Sales

In Europe 20%

Growth Production

2014-2020 10.8%

7.0% 45.0%

12.6%

Share of

Export

(27%)

© 2015 IHS 10

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

others

N.America

China

Europe

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

others

N.America

China

Europe

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

others

N.America

China

Europe


German Premium Brands invest in Export markets

© 2015 IHS 11

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

others

N.America

China

Europe

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

others

N.America

China

Europe

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

others

N.America

China

Europe

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

others

N.America

China

Europe

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

others

N.America

China

Europe


European Premium Brands invest in Export markets

© 2015 IHS 12

Central Europe

0,98

-3,14

-3,2

-2,2

-1,2

-0,2

0,8

1,8

West Europe

1,14

-0,16

-3,2

-2,2

-1,2

-0,2

0,8

1,8

1,70

-0,49

-3,2

-2,2

-1,2

-0,2

0,8

1,8-12%* +31%* +33%*

Since the peak

in 2007 until 2015,

Europe* has neither increased

nor reduced its capacities,

+/-0.0%

*Capacity change from 2007 to 2015


Europe – Plant Capacity Evolution 2007-2015

© 2015 IHS 13

1,22

-0,51

-3,2

-2,2

-1,2

-0,2

0,8

1,8

0,64 -0,10

-3,2

-2,2

-1,2

-0,2

0,8

1,8

0,99

-0,23

-3,2

-2,2

-1,2

-0,2

0,8

1,8+4%* +13%* +16%*

From 2015 until 2020

IHS expects an increase of

capacities in Europe by:

+7.8% (2.015.000 units)

*Capacity change from 2015 to 2020

Central Europe West Europe

Europe will only account for 12%

of the additional global capacity growth


Europe – Plant Capacity Forecast 2015-2020

© 2015 IHS 14

+1.570.000

+162.000

+401.000


European OEMs plant capacity balance 2015-2020

© 2015 IHS 15

+202.000


Global plant capacity balance in Europe 2015-2020

+1.570.000

© 2015 IHS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

E + F

D

C

B

A

16

10%

5%

27%

39%

19%

10%

7%

28%

40%

15%

9%

7%

30%

40%

14%


European* Sales by Segment *without Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

© 2015 IHS

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

27%

29%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

E+F

D

C

B

A

17


European* Sales by Segment, import ratio *without Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

© 2015 IHS 18


European B-SUV growth

Nissan Juke

Opel Mokka

Renault Captur

Peugeot 2008

Jeep Renegade Fiat 500X

Suzuki Vitara

Audi Q1 (2016)

Mini Countryman VW Polo SUV

(2017)

Toyota B-SUV (2016)

Seat Ibiza SUV (2017)

© 2015 IHS 19

2.Spain: Several investments support strong recovery:

Ford, Opel, Renault, Nissan, PSA

3.Russia: Strong domestic demand combined with a

protectionist industrial framework lift production

1.Germany: Product offensive and exports offset future

overseas localizations

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Millio

ns

Region by Region Market Outlook

Quiz: Eurovehicle Car Contest (Top 10 in 2020)

10. Italy: A bet on exports (Alfa, Maserati, Jeep)

4.France: Conscious move out despite Nissan support

5.UK: Expansion of JLR and Japanese transplants

6.Turkey: concentration on light commercial vehicles, hub

for Europe and Middle-East /Africa

7.Czech Republic: benefits not only from Skoda growth but

from Hyundai Motor group involvment

8.Poland: incrleased localizazation by FCA, GM and

Volkswagen, latter in the commercial vehicle segment

9.Slovakia: VW Group, PSA and Hyundai with a very

balances production presence

© 2015 IHS 20


Summary

High Export

Ratio

B- and

C-Segment

growth

Increasing

localization

Cheaper labour

market imports

Chances Risks

Platform

modularization

Risks and Chances for the European Production region…

…will be driven by the increased platform modularization

© 2015 IHS 21


Summary

High Export

Ratio

B- and

C-Segment

growth

Increasing

localization

Cheaper labour

market imports

Chances Risks

Platform

modularization



© 2015 IHS 22


Summary

High Export

Ratio

B- and

C-Segment

growth

Increasing

localization

Cheaper labour

market imports

Chances Risks

Platform

modularization



Documents

Trends in European Light Vehicle Production - · PDF file+18% Growth, of the global automotive production during the next five years