TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN … · 2013. 5. 26. · Develop service delivery and resources for families who go through foreclosure Rental housing assistance Credit

TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN WASHINGTON

Community Development ResearchFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

May 2010

National Trends

Continued signs that economy is on the rebound GDP positive for three consecutive quarters

Unemployment still a major concern; House prices continue to decline or stagnate

Percent of loans entering foreclosure dropped in 4th

Quarter of 2009 HAMP is initiating fewer trial modifications per month

but increasing the number of permanent modifications reached each month As of April 2010, HAMP has resulted in 295,348 active

permanent modifications 50.4% of NSP funding committed as of April 2010

National Trends

GDP Shows Growth for Third Consecutive Quarter in Q1 2010

Real Gross Domestic Product (percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rate)

GDP % changebased on

chained 2005dollars

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Unemployment Continues to Hover Around 10%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 2010

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Recession

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Une

mpl

oym

entR

ate

Case-Shiller Shows Slowed Increasein House Prices in Q4 2009

Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, quarterly)

FHFA House Price Index Continues to Fall; Reflecting Activity at Lower End of Market

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x20

00=

100

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly)

FHFA Four-Quarter Price Change Shows Significant Depreciation in 12th District

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO) Four-Quarter Price Change by State: Purchase-Only Index (Seasonally Adjusted), 2008Q4—2009Q4)

Modest Drop in Foreclosure Starts in the Fourth Quarter of 2009

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

National Foreclosures Starts Percent of All Loans

Concern that Upcoming Resets will Continue to Drive New Foreclosures

Monthly Mortgage Rate Resets (first reset in billions of US dollars)

Source: Credit Suisse: Assessing Risks to Global Financial Stability, p. 8. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2007/02/pdf/chap1.pdf

Loan Modifications: Home Affordable Modification Program

Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through April 2010: http://www.financialstability.gov/docs/April%20MHA%20Public%20051710%20FINAL.pdf

Loan

Mod

ifica

tions

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

November 2009 December 2009 January 2010 February 2010 March 2010 April 2010

New HAMP Trials Started New Permanent Modifications Started

Washington Trends

Unemployment Rate in Washington Has Mirrored National Trends

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Recession

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

United States

Washington

Washington’s House Values Continue to DeclineFH

FA H

ouse

Pric

e In

dex

2000

=10

0


90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO)(2000=100, quarterly)

United States

Washington

Metro Areas Also Experiencing Declines


FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x20

00=

100

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO)(2000=100, quarterly)

TacomaSeattle

Spokane

Yakima

Washington Foreclosure Starts Rise in First Quarter of 2010; Unclear Why Data Show Volatility Earlier in the Year


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Washington Foreclosure Starts (Percent of All Loans)

Fore

clos

ure

Star

ts (P

erce

nt o

f Loa

ns)

Washington Mortgages in Serious Delinquency Continue to Rise


0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages - Washington

Mor

tgag

es in

Ser

ious

Del

inqu

ency

(Pe

rcen

t of

Loan

s)

Some Concern over Sustainability of Loans with Payment Options (in subprime, prime and Alt-A markets)

Perc

ent o

f To

tal C

urre

nt L

oans

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Interest Only Jumbo Option ARMs

Characteristics of Remaining "Current" Loans

United States Washington

Neighborhood Stabilization Program

$1,975 M$1,945 M

US Program Nationwide

Committed as of April 2010

Still to be committedSource: HUD NSP Snapshots

$20.5 M

$7.6 M

Washington Program Statewide

Washington Foreclosure Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated ForeclosuresFebruary 2008

Washington Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations







Seattle Area Data Maps



Areas at Risk of Additional ForeclosuresFebruary 2010

Seattle Area Data Maps


Portland/Vancouver Area Data Maps




Portland/Vancouver Area Data Maps


Tacoma Area Data Maps




Tacoma Area Data Maps


Conclusions

Continued Need for Foreclosure Prevention

Important to reach borrowers with ‘preventable’ foreclosures Borrower Outreach Events Create a foreclosure prevention workbook -- for an example see

Arizona’s: http://www.pima.gov/current/2008_November%20English%20Workbook.pdf

Making Homes Affordable Federal program provides both loan modification and refinance

options Online form available that allows borrowers to assess if they qualify

for the program http://makinghomeaffordable.gov/eligibility.html

http://www.pima.gov/current/2008_November English Workbook.pdf�

http://www.pima.gov/current/2008_November English Workbook.pdf�

http://makinghomeaffordable.gov/eligibility.html�

Preventing Foreclosure Scams

Foreclosure scams are proliferating, especially in markets with investor interest Some counties are sending notices to all delinquent

borrowers to warn them about foreclosure scams Free media kit available from the Federal Reserve which

includes a PSA and other resources: http://www.federalreserveeducation.org/pfed/mediakit.cfm

NeighborWorks PSA: http://www.youtube.com/nwpad Other 5 Tip brochures and resources available from the

Federal Reserve http://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerinfo/fivetips.htm

http://www.federalreserveeducation.org/pfed/mediakit.cfm�

http://www.youtube.com/nwpad�

http://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerinfo/fivetips.htm�

Stabilizing Communities and Helping Families After Foreclosure

Develop service delivery and resources for families who go through foreclosure Rental housing assistance Credit repair Minimizing disruption for children (e.g. allowing them to

finish the school year in their old school) Minimize negative spillover effects of vacant properties

on surrounding neighborhood Ensure servicer maintenance of REOs Work with lenders/servicers to acquire and rehab

foreclosures for affordable housing

For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website

Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies

All publications, presentations available on our website

Conference materials also posted shortly after events

http://www.frbsf.org/community/

http://www.frbsf.org/community/�

http://www.frbsf.org/community/�

Documents

TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN … · 2013. 5. 26. · Develop service delivery and resources for families who go through foreclosure Rental housing assistance Credit