Trends and Technologies in Hydrological Modeling

Sharad K JainNIH Roorkee

s_k_jain@yahoo.com 1

Data ObservationUse of Advanced Technology

• Ground based sensors including radars• Space based sensors

Generating Data by Use of Advanced Instruments

Nagani(1000m)

Kanatal(2390m)

Source:Eswar, Sekhar, Bhattacharya(2016). International Journal ofRemote Sensing.

COSMOS SENSOR NETWORKCOSMOS SENSOR NETWORK In India, about 06 COSMOS

sensors have been installedunder different projects bydifferent institutions.

Most of these sensors are incollaboration with Centre forEcology and Hydrology(CEH), Wallingford, UK alongwith the Indian institutesnamely:

NIH, Roorkee –Henval, Bhopal

IISc, Bangalore IITM, Pune UAS, Dharwad IIT, Kanpur SAC, Ahmedabad.

• Others

Topography• DEM, LIDAR• Geological features• Land use land cover• LAI, Albedo

Inputs from Space for Hydrologic Modeling

Meteorology• Cloud cover• Precipitation• Cloud top temperature• Outgoing Longwave Radiation• Wind vector• LST

Hydrology• Snow cover area properties• Soil moisture - SMAP• Water body mapping and monitoring• Water level (Saral)

Indian Earth Observation Satellites

Cartosat-2E 0.65 m PAN, 2 MX

Megha -TropiquesSAPHIR, SCARAB & ROSA

Resourcesat – 2 LISS III, LISS IV, AWiFS

Oceansat-2OCM, SCAT, ROSA

RISAT-1C-band

Oceansat-3 OCM, SCAT

SARALAltika & Argos

Resourcesat -2A LISS III, LISS IV, AWiFS

INSAT-3D Imager, Sounder

GISAT-1 MX, Hyperspectral, Thermal

INSAT-3DR Imager, Sounder

Cartosat-3 (2019)0.25 m PAN, 1m MX, HYSI

Scatsat

RISAT-1AC-band

Resourcesat-3 LISS III, LISS IV, AWiFS

Cartosat-1

Cartosat-2

Resourcesat – 1 LISS III, LISS IV, AWiFS

INSAT- 3A VHRR, CCD

KALPANA-1VHRR

Courtesy: Dr SP Agrawal

Public Domain Spatial Data SetEarth Explorer – for Remote Sensing and DEM products https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/

GLOBAL RIVER DISCHARGE DATA

https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/DischargeAccess.htmlSatellite River Discharge

https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/SiteDisplays/Summary5.htm

METEOROLOGICAL DATASET - PrecipitationDataset Name Technical Information Source/Web-Link

Aphrodite Rainfall Datasets Gridded - Daily - 25km2 scale - Updated Version, 1951 to 2015

http://search.diasjp.net/en/dataset/APHRO_MA

TRMM+GPM Satellite Datasets

Gridded - Measured (Sattelite+Gauge) -Daily, 10 Daily - 25km2 scale - 1998 to present

https://pmm.nasa.gov/data-access/downloads/trmm

Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group (Princeton University) Datasets

Gridded - Observational Precipitation (Satellite + Gauge) - Daily - 25km2 scale - 1948 to 2013

http://hydrology.princeton.edu/getdata.php?dataid=1

CRU Datasets Gridded - Observational Precipitation (Satellite + Gauge) - Monthly - 50km2

scale - 1901 to 2016

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/

CMORPH (CPC MORPHING TECHNIQUE) Datasets

Gridded - Measured Precipitation (satellite microwave) - Subdaily, Daily -25km2 scale - 2002 to 2017

https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/cmorph-cpc-morphing-technique-high-resolution-precipitation-60s-60n

AgMERRA – NASA (Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project)

Gridded - Measured Precipitation (NASA MERRA + NCEP + CFSR + Observations + Satellites) - Daily - 25km2 scale - 1980 to 2010

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/agmipcf/#updates

HYDROLOGICAL DATA

SI. No. Parameter Description Dataset Web link

1 NetEvapotranspiration/PET

Global - 8 Daily, Yearly – 500m – 2001 to Present

MOD16A2/A3 (MODIS Satellite Dataset) https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/datas

et_discovery/modis/modis_products_table/mod16a2_v006

2 Land Cover Maps-Glob Cover (Bontemps et al., 2010)

Global – 2004 & 2009 Input observations from the 300m MERIS sensor on board the ENVISAT satellite mission

http://due.esrin.esa.int/page_globcover.php

3 Lakes and River Water Level Data

Indian Rivers/Lakes –Daily, Monthly –Historical to Present

ERS 2 and ENVISAT radar altimetry missions

http://www.legos.obs-mip.fr/soa/hydrologie/hydroweb/Page_2.html

4 Global Surface Water - Data Access through Python scripting

1984-2015

High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes

https://global-surface-water.appspot.com/download

5 Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) -Germany

Multiple time scales, Daily and Monthly time

scales

Discharge datasets for global rivers including India –available on request

https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/02_srvcs/21_tmsrs/riverdischarge_node.html

• Great innovations in observation of hydrological variables (streamflows, ET, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, …) by space based sensors.

• Such data are filling gaps in hydrological data.

• May diminish importance of ground based sensors or conventional gauge-discharge data and overcome hurdles caused by secrecy, …

HYDROLOGICAL DATA FROM SPACE

Hydrological Models/ Software

SI. No.

Hydrological ModelName Nature Time

Steps Notes

1 SWAT Model – updated version by TMAU USA(developed in 1998) https://swat.tamu.edu/

Physical & Meteorol. parameter based, Deterministic , Semi-distributed, Lumped and Time/Space Variant at HRU scale

Daily, Monthly,

Yearly

• User-friendly• Auto-calibration• GUI & Source code are available• Sediment components is available at

HRU scale• Able in future forecasting

2 AGNPS– -Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)http://ecoursesonline.iasri.res.in/mod/page/view.php?id=1918

Stream corridor model, based on RUSLE2 database

Daily • capabilities to enter in an unlimited number of climate stations

• hydrologic & hydraulic parameters that can be calculated from DEM

• Sediment components is available

3 QUAL2K (or Q2K) is a river and stream water quality model http://www.qual2k.com/

Q2K is implemented within the MS Windows environment. It is programmed in the Windows macro language: Visual Basic for Applications (VBA).

• One D; the channel is well-mixed vertically and laterally.

• Steady state hydraulics. Non-uniform, steady flow is simulated.

• Diurnal heat budget. The heat budget and temperature are simulated as a function of meteorology on a diurnal time scale.

• Diurnal water-quality kinetics. All water quality variables are simulated on a diurnal time scale.

Hydrologic Models in Public Domain

Hydrologic Models – HEC SeriesHydrological Model Name Features Notes

HEC-HMS – US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-hms/

Simulate hydrologic processes of dendritic watersheds. Gridded runoff simulation using the linear quasi-distributed runoff transform. forecasting streamflow,

• Event infiltration, UH and hydrologic routing.

• Procedures for continuous simulation – ET, snowmelt, and soil moisture accounting.

• Sediment yield, Reservoir sedimentation and transportation

• Assessing model uncertainty, erosion and sediment transport, and WQ.

HEC-RAS river analysis system https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ras/

An advection-dispersion module is included in new version

• Steady flow water surface profile computations

• One- and two-D unsteady flow simulation• Movable boundary sediment transport

computations• Water quality analysis.

HEC-Reservoir System Simulation https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec-ressim/

Models operation of one or more reservoirs for a range of operational goals and constraints. It simulates reservoir operations for flood management, low flow augmentation and water supply for planning studies, and detailed reservoir regulation plan investigations. It can simulate single events or a full period-or-record.

• Model can represent large and small scale reservoirs and systems through a network of elements (junctions, routing reaches, diversion, reservoirs).

• Can also be used as a decision support tool that meets the needs of modelers performing reservoir project studies as well as meeting the needs of reservoir regulators during real-time events.

https://water.usgs.gov/software/lists/alphabetical

Hydrological Models by USGS

MODFLOW, MODFLOW-2005, and related programs Three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model.

MODFLOW-GUI Graphical Pre- and post-processor for use with the MODFLOW and related models

MT3D-USGS (Win) Groundwater solute transport simulator for MODFLOW GSFLOW (Linux/Win) Coupled Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model

based on the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005)

HyDroDSS (Windows) Hydrologic Drought Decision Support System PRMS (Win/Linux) Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) QSTATS (Windows) Obtaining and analyzing daily mean streamflow data from

USGS National Water Information System Web Site: Streamflow (Q) Statistics SEAWAT Simulation of 3-D variable-density groundwater flow and transport SUTRA and related programs

2D, 3D, variable-density, variably-saturated flow, solute or energy transport SWB A modified Thornthwaite-Mather Soil-Water-Balance code for estimating

groundwater recharge

PYTHON – LIBRARIES & SOURCE CODES

http://abouthydrology.blogspot.com/2018/02/python-general-resources-for.html

Python resources for Hydrologists http://greenteapress.com/pythonhydro/pythonhydro.pdfhttps://github.com/topics/hydrology

Hydrological Models/ Software - Commercial

A number of versatile and useful hydrological models are available in commercial domain

Examples Mike Suit of models by DHI Models by DELTARES Water Modelling System (WMS),

http://www.aquaveo.com/software/wms-watershed-modeling-system-introduction

DWSM (Dynamic Watershed Simulation Model) www.woolpert.com

Branded Vs Generic medicines !

• Open source datasets• Remote sensing• Reporting• Standardized sheets

Water Accounting Plus (WA+): Water Accounting Plus (WA+): a water accounting procedurea water accounting procedure

WAWA++

whywhy WATER ACCOUNTING PLUS (WA+) ? WATER ACCOUNTING PLUS (WA+) ?

• Data un-availability/scarcity

• Water withdrawals •Natural and man-made withdrawals•Partitioning in surface water and groundwater withdrawals

• Non-consumed/Return flows

• Recoverable and non-recoverable flows

• Agricultural water consumption

• Beneficial and non-beneficial consumption

• Partitioning of ET into E, T, and I

• Land Productivity and Water Productivity

• Surface water availability

• Groundwater recharge and withdrawals

Independent

estimate

Pixel based

Fact-sheet

s

Green & Blue

water

Open source Easy to

understand

Satellite based

Input data

WaterPix Model: Water balance approach

Output data

Computational Aspects

• Easy to write code by use of better compilers/ scripts/ software

• More robust numerical schemes – global search methods, finite difference schemes, …

• ANN, Fuzzy technique, • Matlab, R, Spreadsheets, …• Faster processors • Better graphical visualization and animation

tools.

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Way Forward• Create shareable databases of extreme events,

particularly for flood prone basins.• Special attention is needed for flash floods and

ungauged catchments.• Flood prone area delineation GIS + thematic

maps• Expand network of instrumented catchment to

generate data for R&D and other applications• Current modeling efforts are fragmented – enhance

capacity of users, consolidate, and expand.• Networking –modelers with associated experts

including with community of “space-hydrologists”.• Identification of role and responsibility – same as

in Australia (for example).

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National arrangements for flood forecasting and warning

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/document/National-Arrangements.pdf

The National Arrangements outline the general roles and responsibilities of each level of government in providing and supporting an effective flood warning service …..

• National Flood Warning Arrangements – National Summary and Roles of Each Level of Government

• Interpretation of warnings and role of cummunities

• Roles of each State Government are defined.

Courtesy: Dr Narendra Tuteja, BOM

Collaborative streamflow forecasting study with BOM, Australia

• Objective: to demonstrate a contemporary streamflow forecasting system capable of running in near real-time in the Godavari Basin

• Will make use of Station data with TRMM/GPM and IMD gridded data, Forecast data from IMD, NCMRWF & IITM

• Going beyond simple recommendations on water forecasting systems

• Supported by– Ministry of Water Resources– Other Ministries of Govt. of India– WMO

• Should continue beyond the ‘pilot stage’ !! Courtesy: Dr Narendra Tuteja, BOM with some inputs from SKJ

Way Forward - Floods• Precipitation – most critical – quantity, type,

flood, Forecasting of flash floods – data latency • Best results with Rain gauge + Radar data• Quality control of raw data• QPF – phase and magnitude errors

Floods - challenges• Flash floods• Ungauged Basins, • Data assimilation• Ensemble prediction• Uncertainty -– assessment, communication

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Way Forward – NHP for Floods• NHP can and should play an important

role as a: Unifier Pan-India database creator/ custodian Pan-India platform for network of

modelers in India and beyond• Indian model• India-WRIS may be transformed to cover

features of Google Earth Engine• Expansion of RTDSS• Flood Management Group – prepare

plans, carry out, learn from each other

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Collaborative streamflow forecasting study with BOM, Australia

• Objective: to demonstrate a contemporary streamflow forecasting system capable of running in near real-time in the Godavari Basin

• Going beyond simple recommendations on water forecasting systems

• Supported by– Ministry of Water Resources– WMO

• Continue beyond the ‘pilot stage’

Courtesy: Dr Narendra Tuteja, BOMThanks