ISSUE NO. #8

Search forCommon Ground

Adamawa & Borno States August 2018

CONTENTS

PEACE AND CONFLICT TRENDS ANALYSIS

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Numberof Incidents

Numberof Incidents

Summary

Risk Factor I: Attack on Military

Personnel and Implications

for the Security and Safety

of Civilian Population,

Risk Factor II: Sustained Insurgents’

Attacks on Civilians in

Borno and Adamawa States,

Recommendations

Search for Common Ground (Search)

i s a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o n p r o fi t

organization that promotes peaceful

resolution of conflict. Search mission is

t o t r a n s f o r m h o w i n d i v i d u a l s ,

organisations and governments deal

with conflict away from adversarial

approaches and towards cooperative

solutions. Search has been operational

in Nigeria since 2004, working mainly in

Niger Delta, North East and North

Central.

This publication provides analysis of risk

and peace factors emerging from

monitoring trends of incidents and

situation reports in Borno and Adamawa

States where Search’s early warning and

early response system is operational.

The system relies on data from trained

community observers, Search staff and

local partners.

Where do we get our information?

SUMMARY

This trend analysis highlights key

threats to peace and security in

Adamawa and Borno states in

August, 2018. These include:

attacks by insurgent groups, Boko

Haram and its splinter, the Islamic

State in West Africa Province

(ISWAP) on civilian population and

security operatives; mil itary

operation deployed to the states;

and criminal activities, especially

abduction, armed robbery, rape

and murder. Attack by insurgent

g r o u p s w a s 2 8 % , m i l i t a r y

operations 25%, criminal activities

44% and peacebuilding initiative

2.3% of the incidents used for the

data analysis in the month. In line

with the trend since January, state

by state analysis of incidents

showed Borno State accounts for

65% of the incidences while 35%

occurred in Adamawa state.

At Local Government Area (LGA)

level, 10 LGAs in Borno and 7 LGAs

in Adamawa recorded incidents.

August 2018 SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND

53% of the incidents in Borno state

were in Ngala and Jere LGAs while

M a d a g a l i L G A i n A d a m a w a

accounted for 30% of the incidences

in the state.

Attacks on civilians were largely on

persons working on farms or

logging firewood, abduction by

suspected insurgents and suicide

bomb explosion; while attack on the

military were mainly ambushes on

military convoys. At least 48

security personnel were killed in

these at tacks whi le mi l i tary

offensive reportedly killed an

es t imated 7 insurgents and

arrested 36 others whi le 28

insurgents reportedly surrendered

to military in Madagali with some

civilians released from insurgents'

captivity. The analysis offered

recommendations to government

and non-government actors on

actions to address the identified risk

factors

In line with the trend since January, state by state analysisof incidents showed Borno State accounts for 65% of the incidences while 35% occurred in Adamawa state.

0 105 15

Numberof Incidents

Attack on civiliansAttack on Security post/personnel

Suicide/Bomb explosion

Insurgent attack on civilian/security

Military Operation

Abduction

Murder

Extra-judicial killing

Armed robbery

Child/Youth Restiveness

Child Soldiering/recruitment

Hate/Radical preaching

Rape/defilement of minor

Prostitution/solicitation by minors

Diversion of relief materials

Family abandonment

Armed Conflict

Arms trafficking

Drug trafficking/abuse

Human trafficking

Disaster

Forced migration & displacement

Peace initiative

RISK FACTOR I: Increased Insurgent Attack on Military

Personnel and Implications for the Security and Safety

of Civilian Population

The availability of these arms in the hands of insurgents boost insurgents' capacity to attack the military and the civilian JTF and may increase the frequently of invasion of communitiesif urgent action is not taken to mitigate the current trend of attack on military bases and convoy and theassociated looting of military weapons and ammunition.

Suicide bomb attack in civilian communities

Bomb attack on security base/operatives

These attacks were suspected to have been

carried out by the Abu-Mus'ab Al-Barnawi

led ISWAP, a splinter of Boko Haram. The

most significant and fatal attack was the

August 8 attack on the 81 Division Forward

Brigade of the Army, a brigade, which was

attacked in July at their earlier base in Jilli,

Yobe State. The attack on the new base of

the brigade at Garunda in Borno state

reportedly killed at least 17 personnel and

left 14 with different degree of injury.

Similarly, on August 30, suspected ISWAP

members in camouflage military uniform

reportedly attacked an Army camp in Zari, a

small community north of Borno state, close

to its border with Niger Republic, killing at

least 31 military personnel while two

officers and 17 soldiers were reportedly

injured.

August witnessed sustained insurgent

attacks on both military and civilian

population similar to the trend in July 2018.

Attack on security personnel were however

very significant in the month. At least five

attacks on military forward operation bases,

convoys and security posts were reported in

Borno State and its environs in the month.

August 2018 SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND

INSURGENT ATTACKS/SUICIDE BOMBS

Despite the frequent changes in the leadership

of the Operation Lafiya Dole, with four Theatre

Commanders in the last two years, the effort

of the military to address the concerns of the

military personnel fighting insurgency in the

northeast remains unknown and may continue

to increase their vulnerability to attacks and

will ultimately impair their capacity to operate

and invariably the safety and security of civilian

population in the region

The insurgents reportedly stormed the base in 12 gun trucks

with other fighters who came on foot. The insurgent reportedly

looted the weapons depot in the base before they were

pushed back air bombardment by the air force. Weapons,

ammunition and military trucks lost to insurgents in earlier

attacks are believed to be aiding the sustained attacks on the

military. For example eight military trucks are still unaccounted

for that were reportedly taken away by insurgents in the attack

on a military convoy at Boboshe village in Bama LGA of Borno

State in July.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2018/08/10/

boko-haram-kills-17-soldiers-nema-staff/

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/

282179-31-soldiers-killed-19-wounded-as-boko-

haram-raids-another-nigerian-army-base.html

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/

276568-23-nigerian-soldiers-eight-trucks-missing-

after-boko-haram-ambush-nan.html

protest-https://punchng.com/war-weary-soldiers-

in-maiduguri/

RISK FACTOR II: Increased Insurgent Attack on Military

Personnel and Implications for the Security and Safety

of Civilian Population

However, more prominent in the

month is the attacks on civilian

working on farmland or logging

firewood, at least seven incidents

were recorded in the two states in the

month. A vigilante was killed on his

farm and four men were also killed

while logging firewood in Madagali

LGA. Four farmers including a female

and five firewood loggers were

abducted by suspected insurgents in

five attacks on farms in Borno State.

Insurgent attacks on civilians in

B o r n o a n d A d a m a w a S t a t e s

continued in the month. Jere LGA and

the Maiduguri Metropolis in Borno

State recorded significant attacks and

Madagali LGA in Adamawa State. In

August, security and civilian attacks

by the insurgent constituted 30% of

the attacks. On August 5, three

suicide bomb carriers detonated

t h e i r d e v i c e s i n M a i m u s a r i

community in Jere LGA killing one

person with two others injured. Two

female suic ide bomb carr iers

detonated the explosives they borne

in a crowd of civilians killing 10 people

with at least five others injured. This

attack is the first recorded in the state

in the last three months. The bomb

carriers were alleged to have invaded

the town through the neighbouring

Gwoza town in Borno State.

August 2018 SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND

Community members in the state continued to take

the risk to work on farms and log firewood despite

frequent Boko Haram attacks killing, maiming or

injuring civilians that ventures into farmlands and

bushes in the outskirt of town. Civilians reportedly

continue to take the risk of working on farms and

to firewood logging as a means out of endemic poverty

that deepened by the decade long insurgency, which has

disrupted means of livelihood.

The increasing high rates of abduction of civilian by insurgents is

believed to be a strategy for forceful conscription of the young males

while other victims were believed to have been abducted for ransom

in the forms of cash or cattle.

August 2018 SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND

RECOMMENDATIONS

Improved Security in Communities:

Borno State Government should investigate the root causes of the increased abductions and murder cases

particularly in Ngala and Jere LGAs. Beyond identifying the persons or groups responsible for the abductions as

well as bringing them to justice, it is important to identify the points of high risk and vulnerabilities such as

farmlands and improve security alertness at such locations. This should be done in collaboration with

community leaders, security agencies, civil society organisations and local vigilante groups to ensure profiling,

information gathering and reporting.

Community Safety Plans and Measures:

The State Governments of Borno and Adamawa should urgently work with local community leaders to develop

a community safety plan for farmers who are always in jeopardy of either been attacked or abducted from their

farmlands. This plan would promote risk awareness and management as well as quick and smart response to

criminal and insurgent activities in the communities at risk. Consultations should be held with community

leaders to identify security needs as well as the points of collaboration with security personnel.

Search forCommon Ground

Search forCommon Ground