TRENDS 2018 IN K-12 EDUCATION - Research & Insights

TRENDS IN K-12 EDUCATION 20

18

2© 2018 Hanover Research I N T R O D U C T I O N

There’s no doubt about it: It’s an extremely challenging time for K-12

organizations. The laundry list of demands confronting superintendents, heads

of curriculum, accountability officers, student services departments, directors

of human resources, family and community liaisons, and directors of operations

has created an environment that requires K-12 leaders to do more on an

ever-shrinking budget.

From uncertain next steps regarding ESSA implementation, changing student

demographics, and continuing teacher shortages, the TRENDS IN K-12 EDUCATION: 2018

unpacks the issues confronting K-12 organizations. The first section outlines the

seven most significant challenges K-12 organizations will face in 2018 and offers

perspective on how these challenges can be mitigated, from more efficient usage

of resources to community consensus building. The second section provides insight

into how K-12 organizations across the U.S. tackled their challenges in 2017 with a

variety of research methodologies and examines how approaches to research differ

between districts of varying demographics, enrollments, and resources.

The result is an analysis of the trends shaping the K-12 landscape and an illumination

of how other K-12 organizations are attempting to address the challenges facing

them. While the problems K-12 education institutions face are palpable, they are

not insurmountable, and the common denominator of the most successful solutions

is that they are based on proven, evidence-based approaches. K-12 education

organizations are committed, vibrant, and resourceful, and the impact they have on

the lives of millions of children means solutions can and must be found.

INTRODUCTION

TABLE OF CONTENTS

04 OVERVIEW

A NEW ERA: A C C O U N TA B I L I T Y M E T R I C S U N D E R E S S A06DOING MORE WITH LESS : C LO S I N G T H E E Q U I T Y G A P W I T H L I M I T E D F U N D I N G 08

2017 IN REVIEW20

10 THE WHOLE CHILD: S U P P O R T I N G M E N TA L , P H Y S I C A L , A N D E M OT I O N A L H E A LT H

12 BEYOND RED AND BLUE: ADDRESSING POLITICALLY SENSITVE CHALLENGES AS A UNIFIED COMMUNITY

14 THE VICIOUS CYCLE: T E A C H E R S H O R TA G E P E R S I S T S A N D A N T I C I PAT E D TO W O R S E N

16 A MOVING TARGET: A N T I C I PAT I N G E N R O L L M E N T A N D D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E S

18 REVOLVING DOOR: C O N T I N U E D S U P E R I N T E N D E N T T U R N O V E R

3© 2018 Hanover Research T R E N D S I N K - 1 2 E D U C A T I O N : 2 0 1 8

SEVEN TRENDS IMPACTING K-12 EDUCATION IN 2018

C O L L E G E & C A R E E R R E A D I N E S S

A New Era: Accountability Metrics under ESSA With the final submissions of Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) state plans, states are entering a new environment

of accountability. These plans empower states to map out how they will improve all student outcomes and have

critical implications for federal funding. As final ESSA plan approvals conclude, 2018 is the year to see these new

accountability systems in practice and ultimately to test state effectiveness at promoting success across all students.

P R O G R A M E VA L U A T I O N

Doing More with Less: Closing the Equity Gap with Limited FundingAs achievement between low- and high-income students widen, ESSA’s accountability requirements place new

pressure on states and districts to close equity gaps. However, most states are providing less funding support per

student than before the 2008 recession—translating into a shrinking pool of funds to dedicate to student achievement

improvement initiatives. With continued budget uncertainty expected in 2018, districts need to invest in program

evaluations to ensure that their limited dollars are supporting programs that most effectively close achievement gaps.

S A F E & S E C U R E E N V I R O N M E N T

The Whole Child: Supporting Mental, Physical, and Emotional HealthDeveloping students’ academic skills alone is no longer enough. The role of public school districts in the United

States is changing and districts are now also responsible for developing students’ physical, mental, and emotional

skills. With the potential weakening of social services programs including the Affordable Care Act and CHIP, schools

may have to fill the support gap to ensure the well-being of their students. Focus on “the whole child” expands in

2018 with district and school leaders investing in initiatives like social-emotional learning, community schools, and

multi-tiered systems of support.

FA M I LY & C O M M U N I T Y E N G A G E M E N T

Beyond Red and Blue: Addressing Politically Sensitive Challenges as a Unified CommunityNot only are political tensions rising, but they are impacting school communities more quickly and publicly. The

challenge for educators is effectively managing community and family sentiments, sensitivities, and expectations.

School districts must successfully navigate heightened partisan, racial, and socio-economic tensions and encourage

stakeholders to work toward a common goal of success for all students. Issues surrounding curriculum content,

civics lessons, the history of school names, and students’ free speech rights will quickly become high-stakes, high-

publicity events unless handled diplomatically.

O

VER

VIE

W

4O V E R V I E W© 2018 Hanover Research

TA L E N T M A N A G E M E N T

The Vicious Cycle: Teacher Shortage Persists and Anticipated to WorsenThe shortage of teachers continues in 2018 across every state and in a long list of subject areas. The origins of the shortage

are clear: teacher pay lags far behind that of other professions with similar education levels, teacher morale is low, teacher

attrition is high, and the number of students interested in teaching as a profession is dropping. However, solutions to the

shortage are less obvious. Short-term solutions may eventually damage the education profession; long-term solutions are

more promising, but often politically fraught. To navigate this environment, district leaders need to understand how to

recruit the best teachers for their students—and how to retain them once hired.

O P E R A T I O N A L I M P R O V E M E N T

A Moving Target: Anticipating Enrollment and Demographic ChangesWhile average school enrollment is anticipated to increase over the next decade at the national level, many states and

districts will see significant enrollment decline, while others experience spikes in enrollment and demographic changes.

Savvy education leaders need to analyze how such trends could impact their district and use that data to plan for changes

in school operations, capacity, and programs. Changing population numbers and local competition can significantly impact

district funding, while changing community demographics can necessitate changes in district funding allocations and

instructional programming.

L E A D E R S H I P

Revolving Door: Continued Superintendent Turnover Superintendent tenure at school districts is relatively short—on average, they remain at urban districts for approximately

three years and at suburban districts for nearly six years—and their departures can negatively impact district programming,

improvement efforts, community outreach, and finances. To create a culture of consistent leadership, district initiatives

should focus on: recruitment (attracting top talent despite fierce competition), onboarding (enabling superintendents to

adapt quickly to their new and complex jobs), retention (creating environments that will keep superintendents with the

district), and succession management (building the talent bench and pipeline).

5T R E N D S I N K - 1 2 E D U C A T I O N : 2 0 1 8© 2018 Hanover Research

© 2018 Hanover Research 6C O L L E G E A N D C A R E E R R E A D I N E S S

A NEW ERA: ACCOUNTABILITY METRICS UNDER ESSAWith the final submissions of Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) state plans, states are entering a new

environment of accountability. These plans empower states to map out how they will improve all student

outcomes and have critical implications for federal funding. As final ESSA plan approvals conclude, 2018

is the year to see these new accountability systems in practice and ultimately to test state effectiveness

at promoting success across all students.

PROPOSED COLLEGE AND CAREER READINESS AND OTHER INNOVATIVE STUDENT SUCCESS MEASURES

CO

LLEG

E &

CARE

ER R

EADI

NESS

Advanced Coursework (e.g., AP)

College Placement (e.g., SAT, ACT)

Career & Technical Education (e.g., work-based learning)

College Enrollment (2 or 4 year)

Chronic Absenteeism (e.g., Typically % of students missing 10%+ of school days)

Conditions for Learning (e.g., school climate, teacher engagement, and student engagement)

On-Track to Graduation (e.g., benchmark courses or other programming through 8th or 9th grade)

Well-Rounded Education (e.g., courses beyond statewide testing – arts, physical fitness, foreign language)

Early Learning (PK - Grade 3)

College and Career Readiness Measures Other Innovative Measures of Student Success

S o u r c e : S u b m i t t e d S t a t e E S S A p l a n s a s o f 1 / 1 / 2 0 1 8 , A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h .

T R E N D S I N K - 1 2 E D U C A T I O N : 2 0 1 8© 2018 Hanover Research 7

W h a t d o e s t h e n e w a c c o u n t a b i l i t y l a n d s c a p e l o o k l i k e u n d e r E S S A ?

1. Accountability Approaches Increase in Diversity: States are using new measures to gauge school quality and student performance, including:

Student Achievement Growth: Summative ratings (A-F rating, numerical rating, and star systems), and data dashboards.

College and Career Readiness: Performance on advanced placement, early college coursework, college placement tests, career and technical education, and college/postsecondary enrollment.

Conditions for Learning: Measurements from students, teachers, and staff on perceptions of engagement levels and school culture and climate.

Well-Rounded Education: Performance on subjects outside the core tracking set including the fine arts, music,

foreign language, and physical fitness.

2. Academic Accountability Expands in Scope, F o c u s e s B e y o n d P r o f i c i e n c y : Academic accountability is expanding beyond reading and math as nearly a third of states will also track measures of science and social studies performance. Furthermore, states are focusing on more sophisticated measures of proficiency including the use of scale scores and proficiency indices that reward student progress.

3. Advanced Coursework and Career and Technical Education Drive College and Career Readiness Measures: States are increasingly measuring college and career readiness with advanced placement courses and career and technical education (CTE), with over half of states using one or both measures. Traditional metrics including college placement tests will continue to be used in 42% of states nationwide and a minority (8%) will monitor college enrollment.

4. Chronic Absenteeism Leads Among Measures of School Quality and Student Success: Chronic absenteeism is the leading “fifth” or non-academic indicator with 73% of states proposing to use in their plans. While seemingly similar to prior usage of average daily attendance, research indicates this may be a more apt measure of student success.

5. School Climate on the Rise: One of the newer accountability measures includes “conditions for learning” like school climate, which 35% of states will monitor in their ESSA plans. The challenge will be in selecting the most effective measures of school climate as the use of self-reported student feedback will make the quality of climate survey design, development, and execution of paramount importance.

COLLEGE AND CAREER READINESS MEASURES

Percentage of States Using

Advanced Coursework

62% 42%

College

Placement (eg: SAT, ACT)

67%

Career & Technical Education

College Enrollment

2 or 4 year

8%

OTHER INNOVATIVE MEASURES OF STUDENT SUCCESS

Percentage of States Using

Chronic Absentism

Conditions for Learning School Climate

73% 35%

On Track to Graduation

21%

Well Rounded Education

29%

Early Learning PK-Grade 3

4%

S o u r c e : S u b m i t t e d S t a t e E S S A p l a n s a s o f 1 / 1 / 2 0 1 8 , A m e r i c a n I n s t i t u t e f o r R e s e a r c h .

8P R O G R A M E V A L U A T I O N© 2018 Hanover Research

DOING MORE WITH LESS: C L O S I N G T H E E Q U I T Y G A P W I T H L I M I T E D F U N D I N GAs achievement between low- and high-income students widen, ESSA’s accountability requirements

place new pressure on states and districts to close equity gaps. However, most states are providing less

funding support per student than before the 2008 recession—translating into a shrinking pool of funds to

dedicate to student achievement improvement initiatives. With continued budget uncertainty expected

in 2018, districts need to invest in program evaluations to ensure that their limited dollars are supporting

programs that most effectively close achievement gaps.

TOTAL STATE K-12 FUNDING BELOW 2008 LEVELS IN MOST STATES

PR

OG

RA

M E

VALU

ATI

ON

S o u r c e : C B P P a n a l y s i s o f C e n s u s B u r e a u ’ s P u b l i c E l e m e n t a r y - S e c o n d a r y E d u c a t i o n 2 0 1 5 D a t a a n d N a t i o n a l C e n t e r f o r E d u c a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s e n r o l l m e n t e s t i m a t e s .

Funding Change Levels

Greater than 30%

20% to 30%

10% to 20%

0% to 10%

-10% to 0%

-20% to -10%

-30% to -20%

Greater than -30%

Comparison data unavailable

W h at D o P r o g r a m E va l u at i o n a n d F u n d i n g E x p e c tat i o n s L o o k L i k e i n 2 0 1 8 ?

1. S t r i c t e r R e q u i r e m e n t s f o r E v i d e n c e - B a s e d P r o g r a m m i n g : ESSA plans will try to close equity gaps by ensuring selected interventions are rigorously selected and effectiveness is routinely measured. Leaders should select interventions only after confirming that they meet evidence-based standards, and use program evaluations to test program effectiveness, pinpoint areas for modification, or flag potential discontinuation.

2. Attempted Emphasis on Equity Gaps in State Accountability Plans: ESSA requires states to disaggregate student performance indicators by sub-group, and forbids states from creating “super subgroups” that may hide achievement and equity gaps. This requirement may help educators better understand and target existing gaps - but only if states select indicators carefully, include subgroups in school grading systems, and require schools to act when subgroups fall behind. Early reviews of state ESSA plans show some potential concern at the indicators states have selected—some states may have selected too many to be meaningful and others have kept the ill-advised “super subgroups” in their tracking.

3. Nationwide Focus on Spending-per-pupil: ESSA requires that states report spending-per-pupil at every school. Never collected on such a massive scale before, this accountability data will enable new comparisons of school finances across states. Expect the data to illuminate differences in per-pupil spending between schools, highlight instances where schools with similar per-pupil funding levels have dissimilar achievement levels, and spark a much larger conversation about the role that an equitable distribution of funds plays in student success.

4.National Tax Law May Discourage New Taxesfor School Funding: The new tax law’s $10,000 cap on taxpayer deductions for state and local taxes has serious implications for school funding. The majority of school funding comes from state and local tax revenues. With deductions capped, it may be more difficult for counties and cities to adequately fund schools.

K-12 FUNDING FELL SHARPLY AFTER RECESSION HIT

Change in Funding per Pupi l Compared to 2008 Inf lation Adjusted

2008

$50

-$850

2010 2013 2015

Local Funding

State Funding

S o u r c e : C B P P a n a l y s i s o f U . S . C e n s u s B u r e a u , “ P u b l i c E d u c a t i o n F i n a n c e s : 2 0 1 5 .

N o t e : E x c l u d e s H a w a i i a n d I n d i a n a d u e t o l a c k o f d a t a .

N O r t h D a k o ta

CHANGES IN STATE K12 FUNDING LEVELS FROM 2008

Greatest Increase

96.2%

Greatest Decrease

-36.6%Arizona

9T R E N D S I N K - 1 2 E D U C A T I O N : 2 0 1 8© 2018 Hanover Research

10S A F E & S U P P O R T I V E E N V I R O N M E N T S© 2018 Hanover Research

T H E W H O L E C H I L D : S U P P O RT I N G M E N TA L , P H Y S I C A L , A N D E M O T I O N A L H E A L T HDeveloping students’ academic skills alone is no longer enough. The role of public school districts

in the United States is changing and districts are also now responsible for developing students’

physical, mental, and emotional skills. With potential weakening to social services programs

including the Affordable Care Act and CHIP, schools may have to fill the support gap to ensure the

well-being of their students. Focus on “the whole child” expands in 2018 with district and school

leaders investing in initiatives like social-emotional learning, community schools, and multi-tiered

systems of support.

COMMUNITY SCHOOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE U.S.

SA

FE &

SUP

PORT

IVE

ENVI

RONM

ENTS

Select Community School Locations

S o u r c e : C o a l i t i o n f o r C o m m u n i t y S c h o o l s .


W h at D O E S S u p p o r t f o r t h e w h o l e c h i l d L o o k L i k e i n 2 0 1 8 ?

1. Support for Community Schools Providing Wra p a ro u n d S e r v i ce s : Community school programs are gaining traction across the U.S. with most Americans indicating schools “should provide services like after-school programs, mental health supports, and health services for students who don’t have access to them elsewhere” and “are justified in seeking additional funds to pay for those services.” Moreover, research indicates that community schools providing such services can improve student outcomes including improved academic achievement, decreased chronic absenteeism, and increased graduation rates.

2.RisingImportanceofSocial-EmotionalLearning: Defined as the skills and abilities students need to work and empathize with others, understand and manage their emotions, and set goals, social-emotional learning (SEL) is an increasinglyimportant topic among educators. However, this new focus has created challenges for K-12 leaders in measuring students’ SEL development and evaluating SEL programs using evidence-based approaches.

3. Po t e n t i a l We a ke n i n g o f S o c i a l S u p p o r t Systems and New Health Coverage Holes: The new tax reform plan removed the ACA’s individual insurance mandate, which experts predict will discourage healthy people from purchasing plans and make insurance more expensive. With health coverage potentially more expensive, health clinics and other services provided by community schools could help fill this gap.

4. Student Mental Health a Priority: Conversations about the prevention of school shootings, the support of children surviving natural disasters like Hurricane Harvey, the impact of the opioid epidemic on communities, and the consequences of cyberbullying will increase urgency among educators to more intensively support student mental health and safety.

SPOTLIGHT ON INNOVATIVE APPROACHES TO SUPPORTING THE WHOLE CHILD

Schools Uniting Neighborhoods (SUN) Community Schools

• Strong core instructional program

• Educational support and skill development for youth and adults

• Enrichment and recreation activities

• Family involvement and support

• Social, health and mental health resources

• Family and community events

O R E G O N

T U L S ATulsa Area Community School Initiative

• Healthy transitions between learning environments

• Before, during, and after school activities, including summer activities

• Mentoring programs

• Community gardens

• Senior citizen partnership programs

• Neighborhood planning programs

• Higher education, workforce, and busi-ness partnerships

• Community health clinics

• Mental health services for individuals, groups, and students

M A R Y L A N D Linkages to Learning

• Mental health services

• Individual/group child, parent and family counseling

• In-service training for teachers

• School-based health centers

• Clothing and housing assistance

• Translation and transportation services

• Food/clothing/book drives

• After-school and evening recreation programs

• Adult ESOL and literacy education

BEYOND RED AND BLUE : ADDRESSING POLITICALLY SENSITIVE CHALLENGES AS A UNIFIED COMMUNITYNot only are political tensions rising, but they are impacting school communities more quickly and

publicly. The challenge for educators is effectively managing community and family sentiments,

sensitivities, and expectations. School districts must successfully navigate heightened partisan,

racial, and socio-economic tensions and encourage stakeholders to work toward a common goal

of success for all students. Issues surrounding curriculum content, civics lessons, the history of

school names, and students’ free speech rights will quickly become high-stakes, high-publicity

events unless handled diplomatically.

POLITICAL AND ETHNIC CHALLENGES FACING K-12 DISTRICTS ACROSS THE U.S.

FA

MILY

& C

OMM

UNIT

Y EN

GAGE

MEN

T

OREGON

KANSAS

Timetable established for the adoption of K-12 ethnic studies standards.

Working on statewide legislation for ethnic studies promotion. INDIANA

High schools are required to offer ethnic and racial studies as elective courses.

MONTANA

Developed standards for culturally responsive teaching.

P r o v i d e n c e , R . I .

Piloting an ethnic studies curriculum.

Albuquerque, NM

Launched ethnic studies courses across all high schools.

Has 37 schools named after confederate leaders.



Has 1 school named after confederate leaders.

WASHINGTON

TEXAS

FLORIDA

VIRGINIA

S o u r c e : S o u t h e r n P o v e r t y L a w C e n t e r .

12F A M I LY & C O M M U N I T Y E N G A G E M E N T© 2018 Hanover Research


W h at P o l i t i c a l , R a c i a l a n d C u lt u r a l C h a l l e n g e s D O S c h o o l s Fa c e i n 2 0 1 8 ?

1. Heightened Political Tensions Over School Names Divides Communities: In 2017, more than 100 public schools carried the names of Confederate icons like Robert E. Lee and Jefferson Davis. Some of these schools now face what can be prolonged and fraught re-naming campaigns. Virginia’s Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS), took two years to decide whether to rename J.E.B. Stuart High School, which was named for a Confederate general in 1958 as the school was struggling with stalled integration efforts. In addition to the task of having to select a new name approved by the school board and the community, the complete name change will cost the school over $800,000.

2. Collisions Between Student Free Speech and School Policy: School districts’ reactions to students who followed Colin Kaepernick’s example and kneeled during the national anthem to protest racial injustice made the national news. Several districts forbid students from kneeling during sporting events with consequences including removal from the team. Many civil rights and legal experts deemed such school response as unconstitutional given the 1943 and 1969 Supreme Court rulings affirming students’ political free speech rights. School districts will have to balance protecting students’ freedom of speech with managing disruptions from potentially politically charged demonstrations.

3. Political, Racial, and Cultural Issues are Addressed via Curriculum: With political tensions reaching into schools, the question facing teachers is how to address them in the classroom. Some teachers may redirect politicized questions, but growing numbers are willing to address these issues within a curricular structure. With events such as the August 2017 Charlottesville protests and racially or politically motivated gun violence, students are turning to educators to unpack these issues. Research finds that addressing ethnic studies in particular has demonstrably favorable impacts for students with increased engagement, achievement, attendance, and attitudes towards learning.

SELECT SCHOOL RENAMING EXPENSES

$150,000 to $1,000,000

Range of Total Renaming Costs:

Signage and Stationary: $10,000

Painting and Murals: $20,000

Athletic and Gym Uniforms: $50,000

Gymnasium Floor Refinishing: $200,000

S o u r c e : H a n o v e r R e s e a r c h , W a s h i n g t o n P o s t , N P R .

14T A L E N T M A N A G E M E N T© 2018 Hanover Research

A VICIOUS CYCLE: T E A C H E R S H O R TA G E P E R S I S T S A N D A N T I C I PAT E D TO W O R S E NThe shortage of teachers continues in 2018 across every state and in a long list of subject areas. The

origins of the shortage are clear: teacher pay lags far behind that of other professions with similar

education levels, teacher morale is low, teacher attrition is high, and the number of students interested

in teaching as a profession is dropping. However, solutions to the shortage are less obvious. Short-term

solutions may eventually damage the education profession; long-term solutions are more promising, but

often politically fraught. To navigate this environment, district leaders need to understand how to recruit

the best teachers for their students—and how to retain them once hired.

PROJECTED TEACHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND

TA

LEN

T M

AN

AGE

MEN

T

ESTIMATED SUPPLYActual New Hires Demanded projected New hires Estimated DEMAND

Projected ESTIMATED SUPPLY

300,000

2005

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

02009 2013 2017 2021

ESTIMATED SUPPLY

ESTIMATED DEMAND

NU

MB

ER

OF

TE

AC

HE

RS 2018 Teaching Shortage

Gap Estimated at ~100,000 teachers.

S o u r c e : U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n , m u l t i p l e d a t a b a s e ; L e a r n i n g P o l i c y I n s t i t u t e .


W h a t D O E S T e a c h e r R e c r u i t m e n t L o o k L i k e i n 2 0 1 8 ?

1. Teacher Pay and Compensation Remains Low: Teachers make “less than 60 cents on every dollar made by others with their education level” and work longer hours. Yet rather than raise salaries, states and districts have relied on other incentives—like tuition assistance or loan forgiveness—to stay in the classroom.

2. New Teacher Enrollment Continues to Plummet: Teacher enrollment fell nearly 35% from 2009 to 2014, a trend that will worsen with sharp attrition rates, which are hovering at 8%. Perceptions of long hours, low pay, and limited resourcing are making the teacher profession less appealing to potential new teachers.

3. Dissatisfaction, Not Retirement, is Driving the Teacher Attrition Rate: Less than one third of departing teachers cite retirement as their attrition driver, whereas the remainder point to dissatisfaction with the administration, lack of resourcing, low levels of control over teaching decisions, working conditions, and accountability metrics. Some studies have found that dissatisfaction with the administration can double a teacher’s likelihood to leave.

4. “Emergency Measures” are Used to Fill Vacant Teaching Positions: Unable to fill positions with certified teachers, some districts are lowering job requirements and encouraging people without certification to apply. Uncertified applicants are requested to have a four-year bachelor’s degree in a related subject to that being taught and in many cases the applicants are parents of current students. In Oklahoma, for example, the number of teachers without certificates rose tenfold in only four years as the state’s teacher shortage worsened.

5. Potential Cuts to Title II Funding Will Reduce Teacher Bargaining Power: The Title II federal program helps fund teacher recruitment, training, and supplies and helps bridge a significant gap in teacher resourcing. Should the current administration cut Title II in future appropriation bills, districts’ abilities to provide teachers with crucial professional supports would be severely damaged.

40% less

than similarly educated peers in other fields

Low Pay:$ $ $ $$ $ $ $$ $ $ $

Low ENROLLMENT:

35% FEWER

new teachers are being certif ied today than

a decade ago

Low MORALE:Teachers who are dissatisfied with their administration are twice as likely to depart

A M O V I N G TA R G E T : A N T I C I P A T I N G E N R O L L M E N T A N D D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E SWhile average school enrollment is anticipated to increase over the next decade at the national level, many

states and districts will see significant enrollment decline, while others experience spikes in enrollment and

demographic changes. Savvy education leaders need to analyze how such trends could impact their district

within a matter of 1-2 years and use that data to plan for changes in school operations. Changing population

numbers and local competition can significantly impact district funding, while changing community

demographics can necessitate changes in district funding allocations and instructional programming.

PROJECTED PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

Between Fal l 2014 And Fal l 2026

OP

ERAT

IONA

L IM

PROV

EMEN

T

Greater than -5%

-5%–0%

0%–5%

5%–15%

greater than 15%

S o u r c e : U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f E d u c a t i o n , N a t i o n a l C e n t e r f o r E d u c a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s , C o m m o n C o r e o f D a t a , “ S t a t e N o n f i s c a l S u r v e y o f P u b l i c E l e m e n t a r y E d u c a t i o n ,” 2 0 1 4 – 2 0 1 5 ; S t a t e P u b l i c E l e m e n t a r y a n d S e c o n d a r y E n r o l l m e n t P r o j e c t M o d e l , 1 9 8 0 t h r o u g h 2 0 2 5 .

WA +10%

OR +7%

CA -2%

ID +4%

MT +10%

WY +9%

UT +18%

NV +15%

AZ +13%

NM 0%

TX +14%

OK +6%

KS +2%

CO +10%

ND +28%

SD +8%

NE +6%

MN +5%

IA +2%

MO -1%

AR +2%

LA +3%

WI -4%

IL -5%

IN -3%

MI -10%

KY +4%

TN +4

MS -6%

AL -3%

GA +10%

FL +13%

SC +8%

NC +6%

VA +4%

WV -3%

OH -6%

PA -7%

DC +42%

MD +6%DE +9%

NJ -6%

NY -1%

ME -12%

NH -14%

VT -10%

MA -4%RI -5%

CT -14%

AK +5%

HI +6%

16O P E R A T I O N A L I M P R O V E M E N T© 2018 Hanover Research


W h at D o E n r o l l m e n t C h a l l e n g e s L o o k L i k e i n 2 0 1 8 ?

1. De c l i n i n g En ro l l m e nt i n Ge o g ra p h i c Po c ke t s : While total school enrollment is expected to increase by 2026 at the national level, more detailed data tell a different story. Multiple states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, will see total school enrollment decline by as much as 10% over the next decade. As enrollment declines, school districts must make hard choices about closing facilities or abandoning local control in favor of district regionalization.

2. C h a n g i n g De m o g ra p h i c s : 2014 marked the first time that white students made up less than 50% of total student public school enrollment, since such data has been reported. This is due to significant growth in the Latino and Asian-American populations and a decline in white population numbers. Projections suggest that this shift will continue over the next decade. In 2026, experts anticipate that students of color will compose 55% of the public elementary and secondary school population.

3. Increased Federal Support for School Choice: The 2017 tax reform plan’s expansion of 529 plans could heighten competition between schools for students. By allowing parents to reserve tax-sheltered money for private K-12 schools, this expansion may decrease funding for public education and discourage wealthy families from enrolling their children in the public education system. Notably, the expansion may also discourage less-wealthy families from enrolling their children in private schools. Such institutions may, for example, ask parents to pull from 529 plans intended for their children’s college expenses before offering financial aid.

HOW TO TRACK ENROLLMENT CHANGES

Trends in the number of school-age children

Community demographic patterns

Local competition including charter schools

A R E V O LV I N G D O O R : CONTINUED SUPERINTENDENT TURNOVER Superintendent tenure at school districts is relatively short—on average they remain at urban

districts for approximately three years and at suburban districts for nearly six years—and their

departures can negatively impact district programming, improvement efforts, community

outreach, and finances. To create a culture of consistent leadership, district initiatives should

focus on: recruitment (attracting top talent despite fierce competition), onboarding (enabling

superintendents to adapt quickly to their new and complex jobs), retention (creating environments

that will keep superintendents with the district), and succession management (building the talent

bench and pipeline).

LE

AD

ERSH

IP

1 in 5 Superintendents depart every year—more than half leave the profession all together

More experienced and older superintendents tend to leave more frequently than less experienced and younger superintendents

OBSERVATIONS ON SUPERINTENDENT DEPARTURES

Superintendents tend to leave rural districts for urban and suburban districts

18© 2018 Hanover Research L E A D E R S H I P


W h at D O E S s u p e r i n t e n d e n t t u r n o v e r l o o k l i k e i n 2 0 1 8 ?

1. S c h o o l B o a r d T e n s i o n s D r i v e S u p e r i n t e n d e n t D e p a r t u r e s : Effective superintendents balance the interests of multiple stakeholder groups, such as teacher unions, mayors, and taxpayers. However, even effective superintendents may find their tenure cut short if the school board views them negatively. The reasons behind soured relationships between boards and superintendents can vary from political upheaval, allegations of misconduct, or just “a divergence in philosophy.”

2. Superintendents Seek Higher Salaries: Both empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that by moving to a new school district, superintendents can substantially increase their salaries. This incentive to change districts may be especially strong in areas with salary caps, although proponents of caps argue that such limits help ensure that school districts spend money judiciously on leadership.

3. Continued Superintendent Migration Away f rom Rura l Dis t r i c ts : Superintendents will continue to use rural districts as stepping stones towards urban and suburban districts. Much of this correlates with lower pay in rural districts, but this means the turnover challenge will be most attenuated for rural school districts in the coming year.

WHAT ARE SUPERINTENDENTS LOOKING FOR IN THEIR NEXT POSITION

Larger salaries

Greater job prestige

Higher student performance

Reductions in the number of low-income students

202 0 1 7 I N R E V I E W© 2018 Hanover Research

O V E R A L L RESEARCH PRIORITIES I n 2 0 1 7 H a n ove r f u l f i l l e d a p p r ox i m a t e l y 8 0 0 r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t r e q u e s t s f r o m s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s

a n d e d u c a t o r s , r e f l e c t i n g key r e s e a r c h p r i o r i t i e s f o r K- 1 2 e d u c a t i o n o r g a n i z a t i o n s . While a

focus on college and career readiness accounts for nearly half of all client projects, K-12 leaders also

focused on leadership topics including stakeholder perceptions and strategic plan tracking. K-12

districts recognize the need to address the priorities and expectations set by their stakeholders and

frequently used supplemental requests to address identified issues such as school climate, teacher

retention, and program analyses.

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RESEARCH PROJECTS BY PRIORITY*

Percent of Total K-12 Education Research Projects

College & Career Readiness Includes: Graduation Early Warning System Dashboards,

Best Practices for At-Risk Student Populations, Course Sequencing Analyses,

Alumni Postsecondary Readiness Surveys

48%

21%

15%

16%

16%

25%

38%

9%

PROGRAM EVALUATION Includes: Academic and Behavioral Impact Assessments,

Fidelity of Implementation Surveys, Program Return on Investment Analyses,

and Equity Gap Analyses

Safe & Supportive Environments Includes: School Climate Surveys,

Best Practices for Climate Improvement Areas, Social-Emotional Skills Needs Assessment

Family & Community Engagement Includes: Parent Engagement Surveys, Community

Partnership Strategies/Opportunities Analyses, Community Feedback Surveys

Talent Management Includes: N e w Te a c h e r E n g a g e m e n t a n d E x p e r i e n c e

A s s e s s m e n t s , Professional Development Needs Surveys, Teacher Evaluation Model Benchmarking,

Employee Experience Exit Surveys

Operational Improvement Includes: D e m o g ra p h i c A n a l y s e s ,

G ra d e C o n f i g u ra t i o n Fe a s i b i l i t y S t u d i e s , S t a f f i n g a n d S p e n d i n g B e n c h m a r k i n g

LEADERSHIP Includes: S t ra t e g i c P l a n n i n g K P I I d e n t i f i c a t i o n ,

S t a ke h o l d e r Pe r c e p t i o n S u r vey s , C e n t ra l O f f i c e B e n c h m a r k i n g

Grants Opportunities Includes: G ra n t s e e k i n g C a p a c i t y, Fu n d i n g R e s e a r c h ,

P r e - P r o p o s a l S u p p o r t , P r o p o s a l R ev i e w / S u p p o r t , P r o p o s a l D eve l o p m e n t

n = ~ 8 0 0 .

* S o m e p r o j e c t s a d d r e s s e d s e v e r a l s o l u t i o n s s i m u l t a n e o u s l y .


College & Career Readiness

• Bilingual Academies Analysis

• College Readiness Predictive Analysis

• Improving Engagement for Students with Significant Needs

• Course Trajectory Analysis

SAMPLE PROJECTS BY PRIORITY

PROGRAM EVALUATION

• Benchmarking Equity in Advanced Programming

• CAASPP Data Analysis

• ELA Program Evaluation

• Discipline Analysis

• AVID Program Evaluation

SAFE & SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTS

• Best Practices in Supporting the Whole Child

• Character and Climate Survey

• Promoting Cultural Competence

• Social-Emotional Learning Survey

FAMILy & COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

• Improving Parent Engagement

• Parent Communication Survey

• Special Education Parent Focus Groups

• Bond and Override Survey Analysis

Operational Improvement

• Social-Emotional Outcomes for K-8 Grade Configurations

• School Start Times

• Risk Manager Salary Benchmarking

• Labor Market Analysis

• Demographic Analysis

• Best Practices in District Budgeting

LEADERSHIP

• Central Office Benchmarking

• LCAP Stakeholder Survey

• Strategic Planning Survey

• Leadership Climate Survey Analysis

Grants Opportunities

• Grants Protocol Development

• Head Start Proposal Support

• STEM Academy Prospecting

• Technology Initiative Prospecting

• School Improvement Grant Proposal Production

• Grantsmanship Training

Talent Management

• Teacher Attrition Analysis

• Teacher Retention Peer Benchmarking

• Teacher Leadership Compensation Benchmarking

• Professional Learning Survey

• Principal Survey

222 0 1 7 I N R E V I E W© 2018 Hanover Research

O R G A N I Z A T I O N A L RESEARCH PRIORITIESS e g m e n t i n g 2 0 1 7 p r o j e c t d a t a by o r g a n i z a t i o n t y p e , student demographics, and size reveals

unique patterns within the K-12 education landscape. Of note is the extra emphasis independent

schools place on leadership topics—accounting for nearly 60% of requested projects–whereas

public education organizations overwhelmingly prioritize college and career readiness focus areas.

This difference across school types may account for the unique leadership challenges faced by

independent schools.

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RESEARCH PROJECTS BY ORGANIZATION TYPE*


S C H O O L T Y P E + +

I N D E P E N D E N T S C H O O L S

59%LEADERSHIP

OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT 40%

38%

28%

19%

10%

5%

FAMILY & COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

COLLEGE & CAREER READINESS

PROGRAM EVALUATION


TALENT MANAGEMENT

P U B L I C E D U C AT I O N O R G A N I Z AT I O N S

40%

53%

LEADERSHIP

24%OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT

24%PROGRAM EVALUATION

18%TALENT MANAGEMENT

17%SAFE & SUPPORTIVE

ENVIRONMENTS

16%FAMILY &

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT



D E M O G R A P H I C S +

L A R G E R F R E E A N D R E D U C E D L U N C H P O P U L AT I O N * *

S M A L L E R F R E E A N D R E D U C E D L U N C H P O P U L AT I O N * *

49%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP 40%


PROGRAM EVALUATION 21%

FAMILY & COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT 19%

TALENT MANAGEMENT 16%

SAFE & SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTS 15%

GRANTS OPPORTUNITIES 8%

50%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP

PROGRAM EVALUATION

OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT


TALENT MANAGEMENT


GRANTS OPPORTUNITIES

35%

23%

22%

19%

16%

11%

4%

+n=~600 (includes only public education organizations for which FRPL data are applicable).++n=~700 *Some projects addressed several priority areas simultaneously.**Lower two quartiles of Free and Reduced Price Lunch populations compared to upper two quartiles.

S I Z E + +

M O R E T H A N 1 5 , 0 0 0 S T U D E N T SF E W E R T H A N 1 5 , 0 0 0 S T U D E N T S

49%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP 35%




17%

TALENT MANAGEMENT 16%


13%


48%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP


PROGRAM EVALUATION



TALENT MANAGEMENT


44%

27%

21%

21%

15%

14%

8%

D E P A R T M E N T A L RESEARCH PRIORITIESAcross all departments, research projects concerning college and career readiness were conducted

most frequently, as K-12 organizations focus on preparing all students for post-graduation success.

Notably, leadership requests were the second most popular, as each department must engage and

work with superintendents and school boards to help make theirs a district of choice. Departments

were split between operational improvement and program evaluations for the third most requested

research project, indicating the pressure to create and implement effective programs or to run an

efficient organization varied by department. Both of these categories speak to K-12 organizations’

need to maximize resources and operate effectively.

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RESEARCH PROJECTS BY DEPARTMENT*

38%

60%

LEADERSHIP

24%OPERATIONAL IMPROVEMENT

20%


TALENT MANAGEMENT

18%


16%



C U R R I C U L U M & I N S T R U C T I O N

8%GRANTS OPPORTUNITIES

48%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP

PROGRAM EVALUATION



TALENT MANAGEMENT



42%

29%

21%

20%

16%

15%

6%

S U P E R I N T E N D E N T / E X E C U T I V E

24© 2018 Hanover Research 2 0 1 7 I N R E V I E W


49%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP 29%


26%PROGRAM EVALUATION

26%


16%

TALENT MANAGEMENT

10%SAFE & SUPPORTIVE

ENVIRONMENTS

10%


6%

F I N A N C E & O P E R A T I O N S

56%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP 40%


PROGRAM EVALUATION

25%


19%

TALENT MANAGEMENT

15%

SAFE & SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTS 10%


SCHOOL IMPROVEMENT & STRATEGIC PLANNING

n=~700 *Some projects addressed several priority areas simultaneously

A C C O U N T A B I L I T Y & A S S E S S M E N T

LEADERSHIP


36%

24%

22%

16%

14%

12%FAMILY &

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT


PROGRAM EVALUATION


TALENT MANAGEMENT

9%GRANTS OPPORTUNITIES

49%

R E S E A R C H & E V A L U A T I O N

43%COLLEGE &

CAREER READINESS

LEADERSHIP

PROGRAM EVALUATION



TALENT MANAGEMENT



32%

22%

18%

15%

15%

10%

10%

© 2018 Hanover Research

R E S E A R C H M E T H O D O L O G I E SW h i l e b e n c h m a r k i n g , p e e r r ev i e w s , a n d r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s o f b e s t p ra c t i c e s a r e o u r

m o s t - r e q u e s t e d m e t h o d o l o g y, o n e - t h i r d o f o u r t o t a l r e q u e s t s a r e f o r t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f f e e d b a c k

f r o m s t u d e n t s , t e a c h e r s , a n d c o m m u n i t i e s , w h i c h a d d s v a l u a b l e c o n t ex t t o o u r K- 1 2 c l i e n t s ’

w o r k . D a t a a n a l y s i s r e p r e s e n t s o n e o f t h e g r e a t o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r K- 1 2 d i s t r i c t s t o u t i l i z e a s i t

o f f e r s a q u a n t i f i a b l e l e n s o n d a t a s e t s t h a t o t h e r w i s e m ay f e e l u nw i e l d y. K- 1 2 o r g a n i z a t i o n s w h o

c o n d u c t data analysis projects receive objective results that can factor into diff icult decisions,

l ike whether to keep an expensive program and staff ing decisions.

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RESEARCH PROJECTS BY METHODOLOGY*


SE

CO

ND

AR

Y R

ES

EA

RC

H

45%

• Benchmarking

• Best Practices

• Environmental Scan

• Literature Review

• Market Evaluation

• Peer Analysis & Regional Scan

• Policy Review

SU

RV

EY

29%

DATA

ANA

LYSI

S

16%

• Survey Design/Administration/ Analysis

• Open-Ended Response Coding

• Data Segmentation

• Predictive Analysis

• Data Mining

• Linear Regression

• Trend Forecasting

10%

QUAL

ITAT

IVE

PRIM

ARY

RESE

ARCH

• Focus Group Design/Administration

• IDI Design/Outreach/Administration/Analysis

9%GR

ANTS

262 0 1 7 I N R E V I E W

• Prospecting

• Forecasting, Grantseeking Strategy

• Grantsmanship Training

• Letter of Inquiry/ Pre-Proposal

• Proposal Research

• Proposal Review

• Proposal Support

• Consultingn=~800 *Some projects employed several methodologies simultaneously


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