Trending Now! Global Broadband Satcoms & Europe’s Oil ...€¦ · NSR and Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition About NSR (Northern Sky Research, LLC) NSR is a Global Leader

www.nsr.com © 2013 – NSR

GVF Oil & Gas Communications,

Europe - 2013

Trending Now! Global Broadband SATCOMs & Europe’s Oil & Gas Patch Future Evolution Oil & Gas Communications Europe 2013

Brad Grady

Analyst – NSR Washington DC


GVF Oil & Gas Communications, Europe - 2013


Agenda

One of the contact card

designs from the previous

slide

1 NSR and Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition

2 The State of Energy Markets

Key Findings from Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition

Oil & Gas Regional Overview

Europe, Atlantic and the Arctic Oil & Gas Trends

3 Exploration & Production Market

Market Trends

E&P – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units

E&P – Bandwidth Demand & the Bottom Line

4 Distribution Market

Market Trends

DIST – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units

5 The HTS Era?

HTS- What is the Latest?

MSS Market Capacity Shift

HTS and Oil & Gas Markets

6 Bottom Line

Brad Grady

[email protected]

Analyst

NSR Washington DC

2


New Initiatives 2013:

London, UK Office

MSS Report Breakdown for

Aeronautical, Maritime, and Land-

mobile Markets

HTS-MEO Segmentation

New “Look and Feel” of all Report and

Marketing Documents

Expanded Coverage and

Research/Consulting Offerings


NSR and Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition

About NSR (Northern Sky Research, LLC)

NSR is a Global Leader in Satellite Market Research and Consulting, founded

in 2000:

Extensive Client Research, Consulting and Advisory Services

Produce Multi-Client Reports on Various Satellite Topics

Coined the term “HTS” – High Throughput Satellites.

NSR’s expert consultants are located globally and possess over 110 years of

combined industry experience.

3


New this Edition:

Study of Mining & Utility

Verticals

Arctic Analysis for O&G

Market

Study of O3b (MEO-HTS)

NSR and Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition

Energy Markets via Satellite, 3rd Edition


Addressable

Vertical Markets (2012)

Oil & Gas* * Incl. Arctic

•EP (Onshore, Offshore)

•DIST (Onshore, Offshore)

Mining

•Onshore

Utilities

•Generation

•Transmission

In-service Units (2012 - 2022)

MSS

•by Vertical

•by Region

FSS

•by Vertical

•by Region

•by C-/Ku-bands

HTS

•by Vertical

•by Region

O3b

•by Vertical

•by Region

Revenues

(2012 - 2022)

ARPU

•by Vertical

•by Region

•by MSS, FSS, HTS, O3b

Services

•by Vertical

•by Region


Equipment

•by Vertical

•by Region


Bandwidth

•by Vertical

•by Region

•by FSS, HTS, O3b

Bandwidth Demand (2012 - 2012)

FSS

•by Vertical

•by Region

HTS

•by Vertical

•by Region

O3b

•by Vertical

•by Region

4


The State of Energy Markets

In Europe and Around the World – O&G, Mining, and Utilities



The Global Energy Markets – EMvS3 Key Findings


Source: NSR

Key Findings

Energy Markets will continue to be driven

by the Oil & Gas sector, where it will

account for 39% of total In-Service

Units, 69% of Retail Revenues, and 88%

of Bandwidth demand (excl. MSS,

measured in Mbps) over the next ten

years.

EP Offshore will lead the Oil & Gas

revenue growth.

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

In-s

erv

ice

Un

its

Energy Markets In-service Units, by Segment

EMvS3 EP EMvS3 DIST EMvS3 MINE EMvS3 GEN EMvS3 TRANS

Source : NSR

6


Bottom Line

Strong demand for Oil & Gas Continues to

drive connectivity demand, requirements,

and revenues in the Energy Markets, with

cumulative ten-year retail revenues of

over $17B.

Over 460,000 In-service Units by 2022 for

O&G, Mining, and Utilities.

Total bandwidth demand over 25 Gbps

for Energy Market by 2022, divided

amongst FSS, HTS (GEO-HTS) and O3b

(MEO-HTS).


7

The Global Energy Markets – EMvS3 Key Findings, Cont.


Paste file path reminder

from the Excel file

Source: NSR Source: NSR

O&G 88%

Mining 10%

Utilities 2%

Energy Markets Bandwidth (Mbps) Comparisons

Source : NSR



Oil & Gas Regional Overview


2013 – Steady growth for offshore E&P and Onshore DIST… with

better growth prospects than last year

Asia

- Strongest Growth

Segment

- Settling political

tensions

- Increased E&P activity

South America

- Offshore, Deep water, Brazil,

and Venezuela strong

- C-band Remains Strong,

even with GEO-HTS and

MEO-HTS Options

North America

- Onshore boom boosting

growth

- Renewed focus on Gulf of

Mexico

- Terrestrial a strong threat to

onshore

Middle East & Africa

- Regional instability

Continues

- A rising Offshore Market

Europe

- North Sea… still.

- More Pipelines to

Russia/China/Asia Markets

- An Onshore Boom?

8


EU 25%

AOR 6%

ARC 0%

Rest of World 69%

Energy Markets O&G In-service Units, 2012 - 2022

Source : NSR


Europe, Atlantic, and Arctic Oil & Gas Trends


Paste file path reminder

from the Excel file

Source: NSR Source: NSR

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

In-s

erv

ice

Un

its

Energy Markets O&G In-service Units, by Region

EU AOR ARC Source : NSR

Regional Breakdown:

North America – 31%

Europe – 25%

Asia – 14%

Middle East, Africa – 10%

Latin America – 7%

Atlantic – 6%

Pacific – 5%

Indian – 3%

Arctic - <0.5%

9


Exploration & Production Trends

Units, Revenues, and Bandwidth


Offshore Rigs/Wells

• High Reliability a must

• Multiple communications links present

• Relatively infrequent movement

Offshore Support Vessels

• Varied communications demand

• Highly mobile

• Limited deck real estate

Onshore Rigs/Wells

• Likely access to terrestrial services

• Rigs move frequently

• Most located in U.S., but expanding elsewhere


Exploration & Production (E&P) Market Exploration and Production Trends

Onshore 91%

Offshore 9%

O&G Addressable Market: E&P

Source : NSR

11



E&P – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units

Exploration and Production Trends

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

In-s

erv

ice

Un

its

Energy Markets EP In-service Units, by Band

EP C EP Ku EP HTS (GEO-HTS) EP O3b (MEO-HTS) EP MSS

Source : NSR

EP C 25%

EP Ku 25%

EP HTS (GEO-HTS) 9%

EP O3b (MEO-HTS) 18%

EP MSS 23%

Energy Markets EP Total Retail Revenues, by Band

Source : NSR

12



E&P – Bandwidth Demand & the Bottom Line

Exploration and Production Trends

Bottom Line:

C-band deployments and bandwidth needs

will continue to increase… but higher-end

segments will begin to

supplement/replace their bandwidth

needs with both MEO and GEO-HTS

solutions.

Ku-band In-service units will increase by

4,500 In-service units but HTS and

terrestrial options are greater threats.

HTS (GEO-HTS) will add another 8,600 In-

Service Units, and contribute 14% of total

Retail Revenues in 2022.

O3b (MEO-HTS) is restricted to a limited

pool of locations with enough real estate

to support it… but they are also the

heaviest users of bandwidth. 0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gb

ps T

PE

s (

36

MH

z)

Energy Markets EP Bandwidth Demand, by Band

EP C TPEs EP Ku TPEsEP HTS (GEO-HTS) Gbps EP O3b (MEO-HTS) Gbps

Source : NSR

13


Distribution Trends

Units, and Revenues


Pipeline Miles 99%

Tankers 1%

O&G Addressable Market: DIST

Source : NSR

Offshore Tankers

• Cost is key

• Crew Amenities

• Support along major shipping routes

Onshore Pipelines

• Terrestrial connectivity likely

• SCADA required

• Video monitoring emerging


Distribution (DIST) Market

Distribution Trends

15


-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

In-s

erv

ice

Un

its

Energy Markets DIST In-service Units, by Band

DIST C DIST Ku DIST HTS (GEO-HTS) DIST O3b (MEO-HTS) DIST MSSSource : NSR


DIST – Total Retail Revenues & In-service Units

Distribution Market

DIST C 7%

DIST Ku 66%

DIST HTS (GEO-HTS)

2%

DIST O3b (MEO-HTS)

0%

DIST MSS 25%

Energy Markets DIST Total Retail Revenues, by Band

Source : NSR

Bottom Line

Ku-band continues to drive the Distribution

Market (Pipeline SCADA)

16


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2021

% S

har

e

Global HTS Bandwidth Demand by Application

Contribution & OUTV

Distribution

DTH

Gov/Mil

Commercial Mobility

Enterprise Data

Broadband Access

Source : NSR

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2021

% S

har

e

Global HTS Bandwidth Revenues by Application

Contribution & OUTV

Distribution

DTH

Gov/Mil

Commercial Mobility

Enterprise Data

Broadband Access

Source : NSR

What’s the Latest?

In pure usage terms, consumer-class broadband access will dominate HTS bandwidth

demand in future … a “high volumes business …”.

But wholesale revenues from HTS tell a different story …

“follow the revenues” to see drivers behind different HTS business plans

The HTS Era?

HTS- What is the Latest?


17


Order of Magnitude from MSS to FSS to HTS

L-Band

Ku-Band

C-band HTS

~ 500 Kbps

500 Kbps up

to 10 Mbps

Up to 350

Mbps

MSS Market Capacity Shift

The HTS Era?


18


HTS vs. FSS vs. MSS: Regional Coverage

The HTS Era?

Source: Viasat Source: Eutelsat Source: TBS

Source: Inmarsat Source: Intelsat

5 out of 6 HTS mobility value proposition offer regional coverage

Key areas of demand: airlines corridors, cruise ships and shipping lanes,

offshore platforms, government and military

Source: O3B Networks

2015

2012 2012 2014

2013 2014


19


Bottom Line: HTS and O3b will add an additional 16 Gbps of

throughput to Oil & Gas markets by 2022 – driven

by higher provisioning and In-service Unit growth.

Enhanced oil recovery, crew-welfare, and

business applications contribute to higher

bandwidth demands for the Oil & Gas market.

Traditional FSS capacity will still exist to provide

high-redundancy, but hybrid solutions utilizing

least-cost/highest throughput schemes

continue to become the status quo…. Even

with C-band users.

The Lower cost and Higher Throughputs

from HTS and O3b are shaping up to

significantly alter the Bandwidth Paradigm

within the Energy Markets


HTS and Oil & Gas Markets

The HTS Era?

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Mb

ps

Energy Markets O&G Bandwidth (Mbps)

C Mbps Ku Mbps HTS (GEO-HTS) Mbps O3b (MEO-HTS) Mbps

Source : NSR

20


The Bottom Line: Europe will remain a key market for the Oil & Gas SATCOM Industry – a market expected to generate

over $11B in cumulative retail revenues from 2012 – 2022.

Exploration and Production Segment will contribute the most to revenue and bandwidth growth – but

FSS faces pressures from HTS, MSS faces pressures from FSS, and everyone faces increasing

threats from terrestrial solutions.

Distribution Segment will continue to be a Ku-band market for SCADA services - tanker market shows

little signs of significant increase in activity going forward.

HTS Bandwidth (both GEO-HTS and MEO-HTS) will contribute 16 Gbps of total Oil & Gas bandwidth

demanded by 2022 , and Hybrid solutions will continue to become more commonplace.


Bottom Line

The Bottom Line

21


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Questions

Brad Grady Analyst, NSR Washington DC
