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Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not
authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying
or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no
warranty is made as to accuracy.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Monday, October 5, 2020
The global scorecard
India + 74,442 India + 903
US + 34,901 US + 400
France + 12,545 Brazil + 365
Spain + 11,325 Argentina + 223
Russia + 10,499 Iran + 211
Brazil + 8,456 Mexico + 208
Argentina + 7,668 Colombia + 156
UK + 6,968 Russia + 107
Colombia + 6,905 Philippines + 98
Ukraine + 4,230 Indonesia + 96
+ 177,939 + 2,767
World + 258,480 World + 3,814
Top ten 69% Top ten 73%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
46.412 bp of population infected
As of Oct 5
New confirmed cases
by continent
1.358 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 [email protected] Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 [email protected]
2
The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital
CA IN CA NY NY
FL FL TX NJ FL
TX WI FL CA GA
LA NJ NY TX NJ
GA SC GA FL AZ
AR MN IL MA VA
IL MD AZ IL AL
PA GA NC PA OH
TN OH NJ GA MD
NY WA TN MI IN
All states All states All states All states All states
Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries
United States
6.429 bp of population fatalities
+ 2,839
PA + 1,846
WI + 1,631
MN + 1,304
SC + 1,022
CO -61
VA -65
+ 80
+ 64
+ 58
+ 49
+ 1,615
+ 1,453
+ 1,393
+ 18
+ 17
+ 17
+ 43
+ 1,926
+ 33
+ 32
+ 28
+ 46
+ 42
-42
-1,275 FL
+ 17
+ 14
+ 264
+ 4,293
+ 2,884
+ 2,251
+ 1,868
CA
TX
PA
WI
FL
NY
All states
+ 20,231
+ 38,267
TN
IL
UT
MO + 1,326
+ 1,222
WI -1,128 TN -28
Five most improved US states
TX -4,122 TX -64 GA -99
NC -1,592 CA
SC -1,015 SC -22 MD -61
TX
823,729 25,519
716,459 16,120
304,280 9,510
220,754 9,040
464,582 16,025
322,925 14,845
Top ten
FL -96
MI -31
413,531
70%
The ten worst US states
+ 461
+ 642
72%
89,995
45,215
28,958
23,560
22,294
18,725
17,420
15,767
15,705
13,148
290,787
217,496 8,216
208,202 7,162
765,894 16,136
+ 41
+ 35
+ 34
+ 32
+ 25 201,210 7,124
4,245,531 129,697
38.1 median population age
227.737 bp of population infected
58% 64%
7,383,499 201,712
53%
+ 361
73%
Da
ily n
ew
ca
se
s a
nd
de
ath
s
Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
3
Recommended reading
After Biden’s Exposure to Trump, His Team Is Cagey on
Health Questions Thomas Kaplan, Apoorva Mandavilli and Katie Glueck
New York Times October 4, 2020
Trump Faking Covid? Michael Moore, Other Leftists
Peddle New Conspiracy Theory Tyler Durden
Zero Hedge October 2, 2020
CNN's Jim Acosta panned for tweeting Trump 'did not
stop for questions' en route to Walter Reed Medical
Center Joseph A. Wulfsohn
Fox News October 3, 2020
Editor Of Soros Outlet Tweets: “I Hope Trump Dies
From ANYTHING” Natalie Winters
The National Pulse October 2, 2020
Minnesota newspaper pulls article mocking Trump,
First Lady for catching COVID Daniel Payne
Just the News October 3, 2020
Meme of day
g
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Pictures"
4
The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
5
The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
6
Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: days to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death Flat indicates exponential spread Declining indicates supra-exponential spread Rising indicates sub-exponential spread
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
7
Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases
14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
8
Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
9
Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions
Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations
10
From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas264.14 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of Oct 5
38.1 median population age
238.82 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
227.03 bp of population infected
13.11 bp of population fatalities
6.00 bp of population fatalities
5.52 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
11
The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona
As of Oct 5
303.29 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
42.2 median population age
208.47 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
333.58 bp of population infected
4.07 bp of population fatalities
6.89 bp of population fatalities
7.84 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
12
Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Oct 5
28.8 median population age
0.65 bp of population infected
37.4 median population age
56.71 bp of population infected
1.66 bp of population mortalities
0.02 bp of population mortalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
13
Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Oct 5
41.2 median population age
92.40 bp of population infected
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
6.94 bp of population infected
36.21 bp of population infected
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
14
Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia9.81 bp of population infected
37.9 median population age
As of Oct 5
75.46 bp of population infected
40.5 median population age
43.85 bp of population infected
40.8 median population age
6.35 bp of population fatalities
2.50 bp of population fatalities
0.32 bp of population fatalities
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
15
Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of Oct 5
42.2 median population age
63.51 bp of population infected
44.9 median population age
45.5 median population age
53.90 bp of population infected
168.30 bp of population infected
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
16
Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
40.9 median population age
93.15 bp of population infected
5.82 bp of population fatalities
As of Oct 5
41.8 median population age
4.66 bp of population infected
101.36 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
0.08 bp of population fatalities
0.01 bp of population fatalities
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
17
Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
33.5 median population age
234.62 bp of population infected
6.97 bp of population fatalities
As of Oct 5
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
49.41 bp of population infected
8.41 bp of population infected
0.75 bp of population fatalities
0.15 bp of population fatalities
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
18
Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)10.99 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
0.26 bp of population fatalities
As of Oct 5
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
301.86 bp of population infected
53.90 bp of population infected
1.89 bp of population fatalities
3.06 bp of population fatalities
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Da
ily n
ew
ca
ses
an
d d
ea
ths
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
