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TREMOVEETISPLUS workshop
Griet De Ceuster
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 2
TRANSPORT DE MAND MODULE
VEHICLE STOCK MODULE
EMISSIONS MODULE
TRANSPORT COST/KM (prices, taxes, subsidies) source: SCENES, COWI + others
CONGESTION FUNCTIONS (SPEED -FLOW)
MOHRING FUNCTIONS (PUBLIC TRANSPORT)
SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES source: general literature CALIBRATED on SCENES and TIF
PKM TKM
detailed VKM
EMISSIONS FUNCTIONS sources: ROAD: draft COPERT IV with adapted fuel cons. RAIL, AIR: TRENDS IWW: preliminary ARTEMIS
FUEL & ENERGY CONSUMPTION
EMISSIONS
1995 = SCENES = TIF 2000 = TIF (+TRENDS, EUROSTAT) 2020 = SCENES (only for baseline2030 = based on PRIMES growth rate
baseline )
OCCUPANCY RATES LOAD FACTORS source: SCENES + others
VKM
VKM increase per year
STOCK IN 1995 source: TRENDS + UIC
SCRAPPAGE FUNCTIONS source: TRENDS + other
SALES FUNCTIONS source: sales in recent years CAILBRATED on COWI 99-00 + TRENDS-
VEHICLE STOCK
1995 = TRENDS
VKM detailed shares
SPEED
2000 ~ PRIMES / RAINS
LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS MODULE
LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS
total transport EXPENSES, CS, PS, GOVERN. REVENUE
WELFARE MODULE
EXTERNAL COST FACTORS source: CAFE CBA, GRACE
WELFARE differences
WTT EMISSION FACTORS sources: PRIMES, RAINS, ECOINVENT
1995 -2005 ~ actual sales
RAIL ROAD
IWW
AIR
module
input data & functions
output data
consistency check
PKM & TKM :
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 3
TREMOVE 1 for DG ENV
• … - 1999• Developed by : KUL, DRI• Application in Auto-Oil II programme
– Cost-effectiveness analysis of :• Vehicle emission standards• Fuel quality standards• Non-technical measures
– Public transport subsidies, scrappage, …
• Fuel taxes
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 4
TREMOVE 2.0–2.52 for DG ENV
• 2002 - 2007• Developed by : TML, KUL et al.• Cost-effectiveness analysis of :
• EURO 5 standards• Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives)• Maritime policies (aftertreatment, …)• Plane taxes
• Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 5
TREMOVE 2.7 : GRACE• Released November 2007• Development by TML• For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds)• Cost-effectiveness analysis of :
Km-charging policies (road and other modes)
• Can be executed without software licenses
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 6
TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT
EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO)
• Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS– TransTools is the new network-based
forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, …
– Development by TML and TRT
• TML also developed the EDIP model
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 7
TREMOVE 3.1 for JRC
• For JRC-IPTS• TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI• New car ‘materials’ module
– Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts
– Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model
• 4 Policy simulations :– Promoting smaller & lighter cars– Accelerated scrappage & replacement
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 8
TREMOVE 3.2 : iTREN
EC FP6 iTREN-2030 (coordinator : ISI)• Developing a common 2030 forecast with :
– TRANSTOOLS– POLES : Energy / technology model (JRC-IPTS,TRT)– ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer
ISI)
• Automated data exchange with TRANS-TOOLS
• Extension with new car technologies– Hydrogen– Electric
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 9
TREMOVE 3.3 for ENV
• Taxes and prices– VAT rates & evolution– National taxation– Fuel prices: IEA extract
• Demand baseline: from iTREN• Rail stock from EX-TREMIS• Road stock from FLEETS• BY set to 2005• Maritime model
– Updated with EX-TREMIS values• Issue in demand (buses) originating from iTREN• Validation• Calibration• Database clean-up• Alternative baseline: data is set• Sensitivity
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 10
TREMOVE 3.4 for JRC
• Baseline update• Purpose: DG MOVE White Paper
GLADYSTEETISPLUS workshop
Griet De Ceuster
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 12
Gladyste
• The new TREMOVE• World• System dynamics
– Demand module independent from other sources
– Demand can also be exogenous
• Vensim• Ready by end of 2010
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 13
Features
• Copy of TREMOVE• Additional demand module • Additional 24 world regions (+33
European zones)• 4 modules: Demand, Fleet,
Energy Use / Emissions, and Welfare
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 14
Linkages with other models
• Copy of TREMOVE• Demand module partly based on
ASTRA (not identical)• Link with POLES developed
– Export to Poles• Link with TRANS-TOOLS will be
developed– Overrule Gladyste demand and
replace by Trans-Tools demand
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 15
24/06/2010 ETISPLUS 16
Screenshot FLEET module
Thank you!