Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Informing Natural Disaster Response with Census Data
Jonathan Auerbach
Chris Eshleman
Constituent Generated Data Agency Generated Data
Linking Information
Agency Generated Data Constituent Generated Data
Parks Department Data
Linking Information
Constituent Generated Data
Picture from New York Times
Picture from AP
Picture from Reuters
Pictures from Reuters/CBS Picture from Reuters
Real-Time Policy Decisions
• Should a state of emergency be declared?
• How large should relief funds be? Where should they be distributed?
• Should the marathon be canceled?
Linking Information
Constituent Generated Data Parks Department Data
Linking Information
Service Request Data Parks Department Data
Service Request Data
Linking Information
Parks Department Data
Census Bureau Planning Data
Service Request Data Parks Department Data
Model Considerations
Parks Department Experts Say service requests consistent among resident groups
Model Considerations
Economists Say resident contacts city because benefit exceeds the cost
Parks Department Experts Say service requests consistent among resident groups
Model Considerations
Economists Say resident contacts city because benefit exceeds the cost
Sociologists Say benefit or cost due to heterogeneity in stake or social efficacy level of group
Parks Department Experts Say service requests consistent among resident groups
ith resident jth group
ith resident jth group
ith resident jth group
ith resident jth group
Few White, Owner Occupied, Single Unit
Moderate White, Owner Occupied, Single Unit
Many White, Owner Occupied, Single Unit
Many Hispanic, Renter Occupied, Multiple Unit
Moderate Hispanic, Renter Occupied, Multiple Unit
Few Hispanic, Renter Occupied, Multiple Unit
Census-Wide Association Study
Challenges:
1. High pairwise correlation among census variables
2. The number of variables are large
3. The regression model uses a noncanonical link function
Census-Wide Association Study
Solution:
1. & 2. Add L1 and L2 penalties to impose group selection on the regression coefficients. 3. Use statistical software Stan to implement Bayesian Elastic Net.
Census-Wide Association Study
