Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
0
50
100
150
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
TREASURY FINANCING REQUIREMENTSOctober - December 1997
February 2, 1998-1
0
50
100
150
Uses Sources$Bil.
CouponMaturities
Deficit
Coupon Refunding
Net MarketBorrowing Decrease in
CashBalance
1
1
164
$Bil.
Savings Bonds
41 17
212
1
123
11
123
Includes budget deficit, direct loan activity, changes in accrued interestand checks outstanding and minor miscellaneous debt transactions.
41
41
21
State and Local
12
41
41
14
34
0
50
100
150
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
TREASURY FINANCING REQUIREMENTSJanuary - March 1998
0
50
100
150
Uses Sources$Bil.
CouponMaturities
Deficit
Coupon Refunding
Net MarketBorrowing
Decrease inCash
Balance
1
1
156$Bil.
Savings Bonds
32 10
212
1
124
12
124
Includes budget deficit, direct loan activity, changes in accrued interestand checks outstanding and minor miscellaneous debt transactions.
41
State and Local
10
14
14
February 2, 1998-2
Assumes a $20 billion cash balance March 31, 1998.2
2
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
TREASURY OPERATING CASH BALANCE
$Bil.
Federal Reserve Account
Daily
Total OperatingBalance
Department of the Treasury
Office of Market Finance February 2, 1998-3
Assumes refunding of maturing issues.1
1
1997 1998
WithoutNew
Borrowing
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
WithoutNew
Borrowing 1Tax and Loan
Accounts Balance
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
53.4
8.140.6
61.2
74.5
25.3 25.7
48.1
77.2
-25.7
40.341.3 44.6
-71.5
6.517.0
TREASURY NET MARKET BORROWING$Bil.
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
$Bil.
1
Coupons
Bills
Over 10 yrs
5 - 10 yrs
2 - under 5 yrs
2
February 2,1998-4
1995 1996 19971994Excludes Federal Reserve and Government Account Transactions.7 year note discontinued after April 1993.
1
2
(Billions of Dollars)
NET MARKET BORROWINGJanuary – March 1998
Department of TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-4a
Issued or announced through January 30, 1998.1
Total 10.0
Done -31.9Bills
Regular weekly -4.652 week -4.6Cash Management -21.1 Total -30.3
Coupons7 year note -9.12 year note -1.65 year note 0.710 year inflation-indexed note 8.4
-1.6
To Be Done 41.9
1
DISTRIBUTION OF COMPETITIVE AUCTION AWARDS OFTREASURY NOTES
February 2, 1998-5Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
Primary Dealers
Foreign &International
Financial Insts.
InvestmentFunds
Pension Funds
Other
10-Year Fixed RateFebruary, May, August andNovember 1997 Auctions
1%
88%
5%6%
1%
51%
31%
2% *
7%8%
10-Year Inflation-IndexedJanuary & April 1997 andJanuary 1998 Auctions
*Less than 0.5 percent.
Note: Investment funds include investment mgrs., mutual funds, and hedge funds.Financial insts. include nonprimary dealers, depository insts., insurance cos., and financial cos.Other includes individuals, and nonfinancial cos.
PRICES FOR 5-YEAR 3-5/8% IIN AND 5-YEAR 6-1/4% FIXED-RATE NOTEDaily Data: Beginning 7/10/97
Price$
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
1
February 2, 1998-6
Price$
99
100
101
102
103
99
100
101
102
103
1 Real Price for inflation-indexed noteCorrelation: 29% STD IIN/STD Nominal = 0.32
6-1/4% of 6/30/02
NovJul Aug Sep Oct Dec Jan1997 1998
3-5/8% IIN of 7/15/02
94
96
98
100
102
104
94
96
98
100
102
104
PRICES FOR 10-YEAR 3-3/8% IIN AND 10-YEAR 6-1/4% FIXED-RATE NOTEDaily Data: Beginning 2/18/97
Price$
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
1
February 2, 1998-7
Price$
6-1/4% of 2/15/07
1997 1998OctMar DecFeb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Jan
1 Real Price for inflation-indexed noteCorrelation: -9% STD IIN/STD Nominal = 0.26
3-3/8% IIN of 1/15/07
94
96
98
100
102
104
260
280
300
320
340
360
PRICES FOR 10-YEAR 3-3/8% IIN vs. SPOT GOLDDaily Data: Beginning 2/6/97
IIN Price
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-7a
Gold Price ($)
OctMar DecFeb Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Jan1997 1998
Spot Gold
3-3/8% IIN of 1/15/07
1 Real Price for inflation-indexed noteCorrelation: 34% STD IIN/STD Gold = .04
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 19970
50
100
150
200
NET STRIPS OUTSTANDING (1985-1997)*$Bil.
End of Quarter
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-8
*Strips program began February 15, 1985.Reconstitution began May 1, 1987.Inflation-indexed securities had not been stripped as of January 23, 1998.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-1.7
-0.3
-4.7-2.3
-8.9
-1.1
-6.7-7.3 -7.6
-0.5 -2.2
5.7
2.5 1.5 3.3
13.8
9.7
Foreign Series
State and Local Series
Savings Bonds
e estimate
e
$Bil. $Bil.
TREASURY NET BORROWING FROM NONMARKETABLE ISSUES
February 2, 1998-9Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20Gross Issues
Redemptions
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SERIES$Bil.
$Bil.
$Bil.
$Bil.
Net SLGs
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-10
Note: SLGS sales were suspended from October 18, 1995 to March 29, 1996.
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV0
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
87.8
4.9
6.3
4.94.7
3.8
6.1
4.3 4.3
4.8
5.3
4.44.8
5.4
7.5
5.9
3.8
4.3
4.95.1
1.71.3
1.81.4
$Bil.$Bil.STATE AND LOCAL MATURITIES 1998-2003
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-11
20031998 1999 2000 2001 2002
QUARTERLY CHANGES IN FOREIGN AND INTERNATIONALHOLDINGS OF PUBLIC DEBT SECURITIES
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
14.5
3.5
23.6
31.6
10.3
-0.1
22.6
33.0
40.5
55.1
64.2
13.8
74.4
23.6
65.8
109.5
56.5
29.7
45.1
21.7
February 2, 1998-12Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
$Bil. $Bil.
excess of foreign custody account holdings of maturing securities. Foreign add-ons prohibitedNoncompetitive awards to foreign official accounts held in custody at the Federal Reserve in
from October 18, 1995 to March 29, 1996 to avoid exceeding the debt limit.
1
1
Nonmarketable
MarketableNet Auction Awards to Foreign
Other Transactions
2
2 Data through November 30, 1997.
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 199714
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
FOREIGN HOLDINGS AS A PERCENT OF TOTALPRIVATELY HELD PUBLIC DEBT
Quarterly
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-13
Percent Percent
MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIESDecember 31, 1995 December 31, 1996 November 30, 1997
As a % of As a % of As a % of As a % of As a % of As a % of$ Billions Total Total $ Billions Total Total $ Billions Total Total
Country Foreign Private Foreign Private Foreign Private
Japan $220.0 25.5% 6.7% $286.4 25.2% 8.4% $318.2 24.7% 9.3%
United Kingdom 123.6 14.3% 3.8% 190.6 16.8% 5.6% 289.6 22.5% 8.5%
Germany 53.7 6.2% 1.6% 72.5 6.4% 2.1% 88.6 6.9% 2.6%
Netherland Antilles 50.9 5.9% 1.5% 63.9 5.6% 1.9% 58.3 4.5% 1.7%
OPEC 28.0 3.2% 0.8% 44.0 3.9% 1.3% 54.0 4.2% 1.6%
Spain 19.3 2.2% 0.6% 46.4 4.1% 1.4% 52.6 4.1% 1.5%
Mainland China 34.9 4.0% 1.1% 46.6 4.1% 1.4% 45.8 3.6% 1.3%
Hong Kong 18.8 2.2% 0.6% 24.9 2.2% 0.7% 38.2 3.0% 1.1%
Singapore 29.7 3.4% 0.9% 39.2 2.8% 0.9% 34.0 2.6% 1.0%
Taiwan 24.0 2.8% 0.7% 32.0 3.5% 1.1% 28.0 2.2% 0.8%
Belgium 12.7 1.5% 0.4% 14.0 1.2% 0.4% 27.8 2.2% 0.8%
Canada 25.1 2.9% 0.8% 26.9 2.4% 0.8% 27.1 2.1% 0.8%
Switzerland 37.0 4.3% 1.1% 31.3 2.8% 0.9% 26.2 2.0% 0.8%
Mexico 16.4 1.9% 0.5% 19.9 1.8% 0.6% 17.7 1.4% 0.5%
France 9.2 1.1% 0.3% 9.6 0.8% 0.3% 10.0 0.8% 0.3%
Other 158.9 18.4% 4.8% 187.4 16.5% 5.5% 172.5 13.4% 5.0%
EstimatedForeign Total 862.2 100.0% 26.2% 1135.6 100.0% 33.3% 1288.6 100.0% 37.8%
Note: RP’s are included in “other”. Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
Source: Treasury Foreign Portfolio Investment Survey benchmark as of end-year 1989and monthly data collected under the Treasury International Capital reportingsystem.
Department of the Treasury February 2, 1998-14Office of Market Finance
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19982
4
6
8
10
2
4
6
8
10
SHORT TERM INTEREST RATESQuarterly Averages
% %
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1997-15
FederalFunds
Prime Rate
3 MonthTreasury Bill
PaperCommercial
Through
January 28
Department of the Treasury
Office of Market Finance February 2, 1998-16
SHORT TERM INTEREST RATESWeekly Averages
%%
4
5
6
7
8
4
5
6
7
8
Through
January 28
CommercialPaper
Federal Funds
3 MonthTreasury Bill
Prime Rate
1997 1998
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19985
6
7
8
9
10
5
6
7
8
9
10
New AaCorporates
30-Year Treasury
30-YearMunicipal Bonds
LONG TERM MARKET RATESQuarterly Averages
% %
Through
January 28
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-17
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
INTERMEDIATE TERM INTEREST RATESWeekly Averages
% %
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
FHLMC 30-YearConventional
Treasury 5-Year
AA 10-Year Industrial1
10-Year Inflation-Indexed Note 2
1
2 Salomon 10-yr. AA Industrial is a Thursday rate.The first 10-year inflation-indexed note settled on February 6, 1997.
Treasury10-Year
February 2, 1998-18
January 28Through
1997 1998
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 104.75
5.25
5.75
4.75
5.25
5.75
MARKET YIELDS ON GOVERNMENTS% %
Years to Maturity
February 2, 1998
October 27, 1997
February 3, 1998-19Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 305.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
%%
516.1
511.2
490.8
1008.8
461.7
PRIVATE HOLDINGS OF TREASURY MARKETABLE DEBTBY MATURITY
As of December 31
February 2, 1998-20
Department of the Treasury
Office of Market Finance
$Bil.June 30, 1994
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 19970
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Bills
1 year & under
1-2 years
2-10 years
Over 10 years 2988.6
PRIVATE HOLDINGS OF TREASURY MARKETABLE DEBT
As of December 31
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
100%
Percent Distribution By Maturity
Department of the Treasury
Office of Market Finance February 2, 1997-21
Coupons Over 10 years2-10 years
1-2 years
1 year & underBills
16
34
17
17
16
80
60
40
20
0
AVERAGE LENGTH OF THE MARKETABLE DEBTPrivately Held
YearsJune 1947
5 Months10 Years
5 Months2 YearsDecember 1975
February 2, 1998-22Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
J F M A M J J A S O N D60
62
64
66
53 61 63 65 71 79 91194547 49 51 55 57 59 67 69 73 75 77 81 83 85 87 89 93 95 97
Months
Excludes inflation-indexed notes; including IIN the average length was 5 years and 5 months as of December 31, 1997.
December 31, 19975 Years, 5 Months
ForeignInvestors
TotalMaturing Coupons
Federal Reserve PrivateInvestors
December 31, 1997
MATURING COUPON ISSUESFebruary - June 1998
(in millions of dollars)
Held by
Totals
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-23
1
9,15921,08030,87013,14921,7208,788
12,22521,4069,165
21,22612,35821,11012,59622,054
236,906
5351,2765,2681,7204,139
7151,7144,278
533,0292,0435,5071,9766,773
39,024
8,71917,24228,27811,85419,8728,154
11,61520,4558,302
17,13411,50320,00411,12520,877
215,134
4403,8382,5921,2951,848
634610951863
4,092855
1,1061,4711,177
21,772
F.R.B. custody accounts for foreign official institutions; included in Private Investors.1
8 1/8%7 1/4%5 1/8%5 1/8%6 1/8%7 7/8%5 1/8%5 7/8%9 %6 1/8%5 3/8%6 %5 1/8%6 1/4%
NoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNoteNote
02/15/9802/15/9802/28/9803/31/9803/31/9804/15/9804/30/9804/30/9805/15/9805/15/9805/31/9805/31/9806/30/9806/30/98
02468
101214161820222426283032343638
26.0
28.331.7
8.2
32.1
25.4
31.5 32.0
8.0
31.427.8
32.4 32.0
9.3
32.3
27.330.9 30.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D02468
101214161820222426283032343638
9.7
30.9
27.129.9 29.3
9.1
29.2 28.9 29.5 28.7
9.7
26.629.8
27.4 28.6
9.9
27.930.0
27.3 27.1
TREASURY MARKETABLE MATURITIESPrivately Held, Excluding Bills
$Bil.
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1997-24
1998
1999
Issued or announced through January 30, 1998New issues calendar year 1996
New issues calendar year 1997Securities issued prior to 1996
J F M A M J J A S O N D02468
101214161820222426
12.7
1.6
13.0 13.3 13.410.7
12.6 12.3
16.1
11.9
21.6
12.0 12.3 11.3
2.4
11.7 11.5
TREASURY MARKETABLE MATURITIESPrivately Held, Excluding Bills
02468
101214161820
12.7
18.3 21.3
13.5
02468
101214161820222426
12.3
23.7
2.9
27.3
6.5
02468
1012141618202224262830323436
9.4
27.829.3
11.2 11.810.2
11.4
28.0
11.9 11.7 11.9
26.7
11.3 11.0 11.5
25.0
11.7 11.9
02468
1012141618202224
12.3
15.5 16.0
20.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D02468
1012141618202224
18.8
13.9
20.5 20.02006
$Bil. $Bil.
2005
2004
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-25
20032000
02468
10121416182022242628303234
12.011.7
11.9 12.6 12.812.8
12.8 13.1 13.312.5
13.1 13.5 13.8
23.4
13.6 13.3
2002
2001
Issued or announced through January 30, 1998New issues calendar year 1996
New issues calendar year 1997Securities issued prior to 1996
J F M A M J J A S O N D024 4.1 4.2 4.8
02468
1012141618202224
15.3 15.3
12.2
23.5
1.1
2014J F M A M J J A S O N D
02468
101214161820
9.3 9.1
20.1
TREASURY MARKETABLE MATURITIESPrivately Held, Excluding Bills
$Bil. $Bil.
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-26
2007
02468
1012141618202224
8.0
1.33.6
2008
02 3.6 3.12009
024 1.6 1.8 3.52010
024 3.5 3.92011
02468 9.42012
02468
1012 11.72013
02468
1011.3
6.0 6.02015
02468
10121416
6.4
17.8 17.62016
02468
10121416 16.7
13.12017
02468
108.2
8.82018
02468
1012141618 18.3 18.5
2020
2019
Issued or announced through January 30, 1998
New issues calendar year 1997Securities issued prior to 1996
New issues calendar year 1996
J F M A M J J A S O N D02468
1012141618202224
02468
1012141618202224
9.9 10.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D02468
1012141618202224
17.0
21.9
02468
101214161820222426283032
10.1 11.0 11.5
31.6
02468
101214
10.0 10.0 10.02027
TREASURY MARKETABLE MATURITIESPrivately Held, Excluding Bills
$Bil. $Bil.
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 2, 1998-27
02468
101214
11.02024
02468
1012 10.9 11.4
2025
02468
1012 12.0 9.9 10.02026
2022
2021
20232028
Issued or announced through January 30, 1998
Securities issued prior to 1996
New issues calendar year 1996
New issues calendar year 1997
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 4, 1998-28
TENTATIVE SCHEDULE OF ISSUES TO BE ANNOUNCEDAND AUCTIONED IN FEBRUARY 1998
Monday Tuesday Thursday Friday
11 12 13
16
3 4
19 18 20
62
9 10
17
5
Wednesday
Announce2 year5 year
1 Does not include weekly bills2 For settlement February 173 For settlement March 24 For settlement March 5
Auction3 year
Auction10 year
23 26 25 27 24
Announce52 week
1
Auction2 year
Auction5 year3 3
Holiday
Auction30 year2
Auction52 week 4
22
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
20
30
26 23
19
13 12 10 9
6
17
3
16
2
TENTATIVE SCHEDULE OF ISSUES TO BE ANNOUNCEDAND AUCTIONED IN MARCH 1998
31
11
5
24 27
4
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 4, 1998-29
25
1 Does not include weekly bills2 For settlement March 313 For settlement April 2
1
Announce2 year5 year
Announce52 week
Auction52 week 3
Auction5 year
Auction2 year 2 2
18
Announce2 year5 year
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
17
27
23 20
16
10 9 7 6
3
14 13
TENTATIVE SCHEDULE OF ISSUES TO BE ANNOUNCEDAND AUCTIONED IN APRIL 1998
29 28
22
8
2
30
21
15
24
Department of the TreasuryOffice of Market Finance February 4, 1998-30a
1 Does not include weekly bills.2 For settlement April 153 For settlement April 30
Auction2 year 3
Auction5 year 3
1
Announce52 week
Auction52 week 3
1 Announce
Inflation-indexedsecurity
AuctionInflation-indexed
security2