Traps in the Traps in the Decision Making ProcessDecision Making Process

**************Thinking StylesThinking Styles

Recognizing and Countering Recognizing and Countering Heuristic TrapsHeuristic Traps

Harold V. LangloisHarold V. Langlois

Examining Flawed Decision MakingExamining Flawed Decision Making

Understanding thought processesUnderstanding thought processes Exploring barriers blocking translation of Exploring barriers blocking translation of

thoughts to effective behaviorthoughts to effective behavior Recognizing unconscious routines for Recognizing unconscious routines for

coping with complexity (Heuristics)coping with complexity (Heuristics) Balancing the perspectives of past, present Balancing the perspectives of past, present

and future behaviorsand future behaviors

The Framing Trap - ReviewThe Framing Trap - Review

Creating an argument that is self-Creating an argument that is self-fulfilling or guarantees a desired fulfilling or guarantees a desired outcome—can block development of outcome—can block development of alternativesalternatives

Strategy: Reframing the problem Strategy: Reframing the problem Considering other outcomesConsidering other outcomes Evaluating different framing optionsEvaluating different framing options

Anchoring TrapAnchoring Trap

Disproportionate weight to initial informationDisproportionate weight to initial information Estimates of risk or benefitEstimates of risk or benefit Suitability of a specific optionSuitability of a specific option

Strategy: Uncover these predispositionsStrategy: Uncover these predispositions Articulate goals and expectationsArticulate goals and expectations Unfreeze old connects that block reasessmentUnfreeze old connects that block reasessment Use past connections to enhance networkingUse past connections to enhance networking Recognize differences between past conditions Recognize differences between past conditions

and present realitiesand present realities Be aware of one’s discomfort with changeBe aware of one’s discomfort with change

The Status Quo TrapThe Status Quo Trap

Bias toward perpetuating the here and Bias toward perpetuating the here and nownow

Protective attitude about present Protective attitude about present assumptionsassumptions Identify status quoIdentify status quo Determine if defensiveness is based on a Determine if defensiveness is based on a

lack of knowledge, or an emotional lack of knowledge, or an emotional commitment (e.g., “originally my idea”)commitment (e.g., “originally my idea”)

Fear of the unknown if change occursFear of the unknown if change occurs

The Status Quo Trap The Status Quo Trap (continued)(continued)

Mindsets may mirror assumptions about Mindsets may mirror assumptions about one’s life or successone’s life or success Boundaries may be blurredBoundaries may be blurred Organizational assumptions may be linked to Organizational assumptions may be linked to

personal disappointmentspersonal disappointments Changes in the workplace represent Changes in the workplace represent

turbulence, and may result in anxietyturbulence, and may result in anxiety

The Status Quo Trap The Status Quo Trap (continued)(continued)

Over-representation of the benefits of Over-representation of the benefits of current organizational directioncurrent organizational direction Circular reasoning (I know what I have; I don’t Circular reasoning (I know what I have; I don’t

know what I might have had)know what I might have had) Reinforcement for maintaining the status quo Reinforcement for maintaining the status quo

(“don’t rock the boat”)(“don’t rock the boat”)

Navigating Around the Status QuoNavigating Around the Status Quo

Help others to identify their reasoningHelp others to identify their reasoning Determine where they are anchoredDetermine where they are anchored Talk about discomfort with changeTalk about discomfort with change Changing direction can be incrementalChanging direction can be incremental

Help others to focus on options with Help others to focus on options with cost/benefit implicationscost/benefit implications Use the “what if” approachUse the “what if” approach

Navigating Around the Status QuoNavigating Around the Status Quo(continued)(continued)

Accept incremental change in directionAccept incremental change in direction Focus on small steps (“today is the Focus on small steps (“today is the

beginning of the future”)beginning of the future”) Don’t focus on too many alternativesDon’t focus on too many alternatives Emphasize team member’s taking control Emphasize team member’s taking control

of his/her responsibilitiesof his/her responsibilities

The Sunk Cost TrapThe Sunk Cost Trap

Making choices that validate past decisionsMaking choices that validate past decisions Prior choices may have been costly, and may Prior choices may have been costly, and may

have required a large effort to “fix” a problemhave required a large effort to “fix” a problem Embarrassment about having failed in a past Embarrassment about having failed in a past

strategic interventionstrategic intervention• Need to protect your honor or dignityNeed to protect your honor or dignity• May have involved a career setbackMay have involved a career setback

Avoiding the Sunk Cost TrapAvoiding the Sunk Cost Trap

Seek feedback from others not involved in Seek feedback from others not involved in past decisionpast decision Provides a new perspectiveProvides a new perspective May also result in new contacts/outreachMay also result in new contacts/outreach

Assess needs of other stakeholders Assess needs of other stakeholders How these needs affect current optionsHow these needs affect current options Identifying possible conflictsIdentifying possible conflicts

Avoiding the Sunk Cost TrapAvoiding the Sunk Cost Trap(continued)(continued)

Clarify why past mistakes are distressingClarify why past mistakes are distressing May affect self-esteemMay affect self-esteem Decision may have matched realities of a Decision may have matched realities of a

past time, but no longer be appropriatepast time, but no longer be appropriate Extenuating circumstances may have Extenuating circumstances may have

changedchanged

Avoiding the Sunk Cost TrapAvoiding the Sunk Cost Trap(continued)(continued)

Stress importance of personal growthStress importance of personal growth Avoids creating a climate of “failure-fearing”Avoids creating a climate of “failure-fearing” Meets need for a well-constructed personal Meets need for a well-constructed personal

and professional planand professional plan Helps to align stakeholders “on the same Helps to align stakeholders “on the same

page”page”

The Confirming Evidence TrapThe Confirming Evidence Trap

Looking for evidence and confirmation Looking for evidence and confirmation from those who have a similar from those who have a similar perspective or a vested interestperspective or a vested interest

Overweighting supportive information, Overweighting supportive information, while avoiding the search for conflicting while avoiding the search for conflicting datadata

Avoiding the Confirming Avoiding the Confirming Evidence TrapEvidence Trap

Assist others in sorting evidenceAssist others in sorting evidence List people who benefit from the favored List people who benefit from the favored

approachapproach List those who might benefit from another List those who might benefit from another

scenarioscenario Collaborate on developing alternative Collaborate on developing alternative

scenariosscenarios

Avoiding the Confirming Avoiding the Confirming Evidence Trap Evidence Trap

(continued)(continued)

Emphasize need to identify specific Emphasize need to identify specific motives of team member and other motives of team member and other stakeholdersstakeholders

Focus on meeting individual and team Focus on meeting individual and team goals (not mutually exclusive)goals (not mutually exclusive)

Estimating & Forecasting Traps Estimating & Forecasting Traps

Needing to make estimates in the face of Needing to make estimates in the face of uncertaintyuncertainty

Overconfidence (rose-colored glasses)Overconfidence (rose-colored glasses) Understanding the difficultiesUnderstanding the difficulties Optimism may lead to quick fixes, or Optimism may lead to quick fixes, or

assuming you are smarter than everyone assuming you are smarter than everyone elseelse

Estimating & Forecasting TrapsEstimating & Forecasting Traps(continued)(continued)

Prudence (stakes are too high and we Prudence (stakes are too high and we need to duck and cover)need to duck and cover) Risk probabilities may be exaggeratedRisk probabilities may be exaggerated May act too conservatively without an effective May act too conservatively without an effective

action planaction plan Recallability (base predictions on what we Recallability (base predictions on what we

think we remember)think we remember) Likely to shade the data in our favorLikely to shade the data in our favor Usually don’t remember too wellUsually don’t remember too well

Avoiding Estimating & Avoiding Estimating & Forecasting Traps Forecasting Traps

Disciplined approach to making Disciplined approach to making forecasts or judging probabilitiesforecasts or judging probabilities

Look at up side & down side for Look at up side & down side for inconsistenciesinconsistencies Avoid regret as much as possibleAvoid regret as much as possible Don’t overpromise benefitsDon’t overpromise benefits Have client challenge his/her estimatesHave client challenge his/her estimates Try to minimize distortions in memoryTry to minimize distortions in memory

Managing HeuristicsManaging Heuristics Greater vulnerability to heuristic traps at Greater vulnerability to heuristic traps at

times of discontinuous changetimes of discontinuous change Recognize heuristic traps and develop Recognize heuristic traps and develop

countering strategiescountering strategies Organizational learning involves individual Organizational learning involves individual

efforts in taking responsibility for personal efforts in taking responsibility for personal mindsets and blocking behaviorsmindsets and blocking behaviors

Leading change initiatives requires strong Leading change initiatives requires strong commitment to examining one’s own commitment to examining one’s own mindsets and thinking style mindsets and thinking style

Thinking StylesThinking Styles

Synthesist - Challenge accepted viewsSynthesist - Challenge accepted views Idealist - Defend the value systemIdealist - Defend the value system Pragmatist - Get it donePragmatist - Get it done Analyst - Study the detailsAnalyst - Study the details Realist - Organize and then take actionRealist - Organize and then take action

Orientation Synthesist Idealist Pragmatist Analyst Realist

Characterized By:

Integrative view Seeks likeness in apparent unlikes Seeks conflict and synthesis Interested in change Speculative Data meaningless without interpretation

Assimilative or holistic view Broad range of views are welcomed Seeks ideal solutions Interested in values Receptive Data and theory of equal value

Eclectic view "Whatever works!" Seeks shortest route to payoff Interested in innovation Adaptive Any data or theory that gets us there

Formal and logic deduction Seeks one best way Seeks models and formulas Interested in "scientific" solutions Prescriptive Theory and method over data

Empirical view and induction Relies on "facts" and expert opinion Seeks solutions that meet current needs Interested in concrete results Corrective Data over theory

Strengths:

Focus on underlying assumptions Points out abstract conceptual aspects Good at preventing over-agreement Best in controversial, conflict-laden settings Provides debate and creativity

Focus on process and relationships Points out views and aspirations Good at articulating goals Best in unstructured, value-laden situations Provides broad view, goals and standards

Focus on payoff Points out tactics and strategies Good at identifying impacts Best in complex, incremental situations Provides experiment and innovation

Focus on method and plan Points out data and details Good at model-building and planning Best in structured, calculable situations Provides stability and structure

Focus on facts and results Points out realities and resources Good at simplifying and "cutting through" Best in well-defined, objective situations Provides drive and momentum

Liabilities:

May screen out agreement May seek unnecessary conflict May try too hard for change and newness May theorize excessively Can appear to be uncommitted

May screen out "hard" data May delay from too many choices May try too hard for perfect solutions May overlook situations Can appear to be overly sentimental

May screen out long- range aspects May rush too quickly to payoff May try too hard for expediency May rely too much on what "sells" Can appear to be over- compromising

May screen out values and subjectives May over-plan and over-analyze May try too hard for predictability May be inflexible, overly cautious Can appear to be tunnel-visioned

May screen out disagreement May rush to over- simplified solutions

Thinking Styles

I D Synthesist I dealist Pragmatist Analyst Realist

85018502 55 52 55 61 478503 51 66 40 58 558504 54 61 38 73 4485058506 45 62 50 60 538507 46 61 51 60 528508 46 54 52 63 558509 36 58 65 57 54851085118512 47 58 58 43 648513

8514 49 59 52 62 48851585168517 46 49 44 75 568518 60 59 58 45 488519852085218522 44 50 54 56 668523852485258526 43 56 48 59 64852785288529

I D Synthesist I dealist Pragmatist Analyst Realist

8530 49 43 53 58 678531 44 56 57 62 518532 55 56 48 54 578533 59 53 65 46 478534 72 63 41 53 418535 53 59 49 61 488536 39 54 53 63 6185378538 36 67 63 46 588539 44 57 50 61 58854085418542 57 62 47 58 468543 35 61 70 49 558544 43 53 60 56 588545 35 52 63 64 568546 58 61 55 59 378547 50 57 59 48 5685488549 47 52 53 65 538550 53 58 52 58 498551 36 56 53 65 6085528553 38 50 53 65 648554855585568557 39 65 43 67 568558 69 51 44 65 418559 46 46 49 71 58

I D Synthesist I dealist Pragmatist Analyst Realist

8560 55 55 56 55 49856185628563 42 72 41 66 498564 42 54 52 59 638565 44 57 60 53 568566 42 61 54 55 588567 54 59 42 63 528568 47 54 50 64 5585698570 42 52 55 63 58857185728573 38 70 55 51 568574 56 49 53 63 49857585768577 49 73 49 55 448578 38 53 51 63 6585798580 50 54 51 57 588581 54 59 56 44 5785828583 53 64 46 65 428584 33 55 56 66 608585 32 66 48 70 548586 45 56 56 55 588587 46 53 58 56 57

Synthesist Idealist Pragmatist Analyst Realist

Average 47.06 57.28 52.48 59.06 54.13

Thinking Style Summary for Thinking Style Summary for ClassClass

Thinking Style Comparisons

Synthesist (1) Idealist (2) Pragmatist (3) Analyst (4) Realist (5)

Match Compare Individual 1 Individual 2

1,2 Synthesist,

Idealist

Strengths

Focus on underlying assumptions Points out abstract conceptual aspects Good at preventing over-agreement Best in controversial, conflict-laden situations Provides debate and creativity

Focus on process and relationships Points out views and aspirations Good at articulating goals Best in unstructured, value-laden situations Provides broad view, goals and standards

Liabilities

May screen out agreement May seek unnecessary conflict May try too hard for change and newness May theorize excessively Can appear to be uncommitted

May screen out "hard" data May delay from too many choices May try too hard for perfect solutions May overlook situations Can appear to be overly sentimental

1,3 Synthesist, Pragmatist

Strengths

Focus on underlying assumptions Points out abstract conceptual aspects Good at preventing over-agreement Best in controversial, conflict-laden situations Provides debate and creativity

Focus on payoff Points out tactics and strategies Good at identifying impacts Best in complex, incremental situations Provides experiment and innovation

Liabilities

May screen out agreement May seek unnecessary conflict May try too hard for change and newness May theorize excessively Can appear to be uncommitted

May screen out long-range aspects May rush too quickly to payoff May try too hard for expediency May rely too much on what "sells" Can appear to be over-compromising

Thinking Style Comparisons

Synthesist (1) Idealist (2) Pragmatist (3) Analyst (4) Realist (5)

3,4 Pragmatist,

Analyst

Strengths

Focus on payoff Points out tactics and strategies Good at identifying impacts Best in complex, incremental situations Provides experiment and innovation

Focus on method and plan Points out data and details Good at model-building and planning Best in structured, calculable situations Provides stability and structure

Liabilities

May screen out agreement May seek unnecessary conflict May try too hard for change and newness May theorize excessively Can appear to be uncommitted

May screen out values and subjectives May over-plan and over-analyze May try too hard for predictability May be inflexible, overly cautious Can appear to be tunnel-visioned

SummarySummary

Thinking style analysis helps one to better Thinking style analysis helps one to better understand what underlies how you understand what underlies how you approach informationapproach information

Understanding heuristics helps one to Understanding heuristics helps one to avoid entrapment by unconscious thought avoid entrapment by unconscious thought routinesroutines

Still to come…Utilizing these skills within Still to come…Utilizing these skills within organizational settings for effective organizational settings for effective coachingcoaching