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Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd, which is authorised andregulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which Harris Williams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
0
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
PAGE |
www.harriswilliams.com
WHAT WE’RE READING
1
CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0151
Jeff BurkettDirector [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334
Jershon JonesDirector [email protected]+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff KiddVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0178
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director [email protected]+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
TRUCKING | FREIGHT GROWTH SEEN DESPITE DRIVER WOES
Trucking companies are likely to see a continuation of moderate business growthin 2016 as the shortage of qualified drivers keeps a lid on fleet expansion, analystssaid. On government issues, with a new highway funding plan signed into law,limited action is expected in Congress during a presidential election year, andindustry officials said they are turning their attention to regulatory activity at thefederal and state levels. “It’s going to be a heavy regulatory year,” said DaveOsiecki, chief of national advocacy for American Trucking Associations.
Transport Topics
MARINE | OCEAN IMPORTS TO REMAIN FLAT FOR SEVERAL MONTHS
Retail imports at U.S. ports are declining in line with a seasonal post-holiday lull andare unlikely to grow beyond historic norms as store operators continue to copewith stubbornly high inventories, a retail group said Friday. Beginning in November,import volumes at the nation’s major seaports fell below 1.5 million 20-footequivalent units, a standard measure for cargo containers, according to theGlobal Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and HackettAssociates LLC.
Wall Street Journal
AIR | DECLINE IN AIR FREIGHT VOLUMES BOTTOMS OUT
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air freightmarkets showing air cargo volumes (measured in Freight Tonne Kilometers) weredown 1.2% in November 2015, compared to November 2014. Total cargo volumes,however, expanded compared to October 2015, and were higher than the lowpoint in August. This indicates that the decline in cargo demand may bebottoming out.
IATA
RAIL | U.S. FREIGHT RAIL TRAFFIC ENDS 2015 WITH A WHIMPER
U.S. freight rail traffic was down 9.7 percent year-over-year in the week endingDec. 26 as a double-digit drop in carload traffic offset a 1.6 percent gain inintermodal volume, the Association of American Railroads reported…For the first51 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 14,058,461carloads, down 5.8 percent, and 13,522,726 intermodal units, up 1.6 percent. Totalcombined U.S. traffic for the first 51 weeks was 27,581,187 carloads and intermodalunits, a decrease of 2.3 percent from last year.
Journal of Commerce
Transportation and logistics companies of all sizes felt the urge to merge in 2015, asthe number of deals large and small sent acquisition activity to nearly frenziedlevels by year-end. Hardly a week went by last year without breaking news of abuyout, or new majority shareholder, or a fold-in acquisition in non-asset and asset-based sectors of logistics and transportation. The number of logistics-relatedmergers and acquisitions hit a nine-year high in the first nine months of 2015,according to global research firm PwC.
Journal of Commerce
LOGISTICS | MERGERS HIT NINE-YEAR HIGH IN 2015
LOGISTICS | WAREHOUSE SPACE GREW TIGHTER IN 4Q
Empty warehouses are becoming endangered species. Real-estate brokerageCBRE Inc. reports that the availability rate for industrial property – which meanswarehouses and distribution centers – fell to 9.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015,capping 23 consecutive quarters of falling availability, the longest such stretchsince CBRE started following it in 1989.
Wall Street Journal
PAGE |
M&A TRANSACTIONS
2
RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
*Denotes pending transactions
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Date Sector Target Business Description Acquirer
1/14/2016 Logistics EZ Alternative Transport Prov ides bulk chemical hauling serv ices. Heniff Transportation
Systems
1/12/2016 Logistics Enroute Systems
Corporation
Provides SaaS transportation management systems. Pitney Bowes Inc.
1/11/2016* Logistics Consolidated Aviation
Serv ices LLC
Provides cargo handling serv ices throughout the United States and
South America.
Worldwide Flight Serv ices,
Inc.
12/29/2015* Logistics Sinotrans & CSC Holdings
Co. Ltd.
Prov ides integrated logistics solutions for customers in China and
internationally.
China Merchants Group
Limited
12/9/2015 Logistics United Transportation
Co LLC, Motor Fuel
Delivery Fleet
Prov ides motor fuel delivery serv ices. Sentinel Transportation LLC
12/7/2015* Marine Neptune Orient Lines
Limited
Owns and operates charter vessels and other related assets and
provides global cargo container transportation serv ices.
CMA CGM S.A.
12/1/2015 Logistics Optimal Freight, LLC Provides truckload, less-than-truckload, intermodal, air, ocean, and
freight management serv ices.
Transport America, Inc.
12/1/2015 Logistics Bear Transportation
Serv ices, LP
Prov ides less-than-truckload and truckload freight brokerage
serv ices.
ABF Logistics I I , Inc.
11/18/2015 Logistics The Secor Group, Inc. Prov ides moving, storage, and logistics serv ices. The Suddath Companies
11/9/2015* Equipment TAL International Group,
Inc.
Leases intermodal transportation equipment and provides maritime
container management serv ices worldwide.
Triton Container
International Limited
11/4/2015 Logistics Juno Logistics Prov ides non-asset based, global third party logistics. Sojitz Logistics Corporation
11/2/2015 Logistics Copper Logistics, Inc. Prov ides domestic and international asset-light freight forwarding
serv ices.
Radiant Logistics, Inc.
11/2/2015 Logistics Dunbar Armored, Inc.,
Global Logistics
Operations
Prov ides armored logistics serv ices and cash management solutions. Loomis AB
10/29/2015* Logistics TransForce Waste
Management Segment
Prov ides an extended range of serv ices for residual materials
management in the residential, municipal, industrial, commercial,
and institutional sectors.
GFL Env ironmental Inc.
10/28/2015 Rail Pacific Imperial
Railroad, Inc.
Owns and operates shortline and freight railroad in California. Conatus Capital Group,
Inc.
10/21/2015 Logistics Courier Advisory Group
Inc.
Prov ides courier and managed delivery serv ices for pharmacy,
medical, retail, optical, and banking industries.
R.R. Donnelley Logistics,
Inc.
10/20/2015 Logistics Unishippers Global
Logistics, LLC
Provides non-asset based, third party logistics serv ices to small to
midsized businesses.
Ridgemont Equity Partners
10/13/2015 Equipment Great Western Leasing
& Sales, Inc.
Prov ides full-serv ice, integrated solutions to the flatbed and
specialized trailer industry.
Argosy Capital; Argosy
Investment Partners V,
L.P.; Headhaul Capital
10/9/2015* Logistics UTi Worldwide Inc. Operates as a non-asset-based supply chain serv ices and solutions
company.
DSV A/S
PAGE |
(2.7%)
4.1%
4.8%
7.2%
7.3%
Marine
Transportation
Equipment
Logistics Providers
Trucking
Rail & Rail Services
(0.6%)
2.2%
2.8%
4.9%
5.3%
Rail & Rail Services
Marine
Transportation
Equipment
Logistics Providers
Trucking
2.9%
3.8%
8.7%
11.1%
16.7%
Marine
Transportation
Equipment
Logistics
Providers
Rail & Rail
Services
Trucking
2.4%
6.4%
8.2%
8.8%
11.0%
Rail & Rail Services
Trucking
Transportation
Equipment
Logistics Providers
Marine
4.3x
4.6x
6.6x
7.4x
7.7x
Trucking
Transportation
Equipment
Marine
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers
4.4x
4.6x
7.5x
8.1x
9.2x
Transportation
Equipment
Trucking
Rail & Rail Services
Marine
Logistics Providers
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2016E EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015E) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015E – 2017P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015E) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015R – 2017P)
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
PAGE |
(43.4%)
(42.0%)
(41.8%)
(33.3%)
(18.5%)
(5.9%)
Trucking
Transportation Equipment
Marine
Rail & Rail Services
Logistics Providers
S&P 500
(16.1%)
(11.2%)
(9.9%)
(8.4%)
(4.7%)
(4.4%)
Marine
Transportation Equipment
Rail & Rail Services
Trucking
Logistics Providers
S&P 500
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
Jan-12-2015 Apr-12-2015 Jul-12-2015 Oct-12-2015 Jan-12-2016
Logistics Providers Trucking Rail and Rail Services
Marine Transportation Equipment S&P 500 Index
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
(Indexed to December 12, 2014)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
PAGE |
OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup serves companies in a broad range of attractive niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), truck, rail, marineand air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotive and heavy duty vehicle market.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIR TRANSPORTATION
5
a portfolio company of
has been acquired byhas been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
and
in partnership with
and
RCL Services Group
has sold
tohas been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has acquired
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Energy, Power& Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
PAGE |
HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. OFFICE LOCATIONS
UNITED STATES EUROPE
BostonTwo International Place24th FloorBoston, Massachusetts 02110Phone: +1 (617) 482-7501
Cleveland1900 East 9th Street20th FloorCleveland, Ohio 44114Phone: +1 (216) 689-2400
Minneapolis222 South 9th StreetSuite 3350Minneapolis, Minnesota 55402Phone: +1 (612) 359-2700
Richmond (Headquarters)1001 Haxall Point9th FloorRichmond, Virginia 23219Phone: +1 (804) 648-0072
San Francisco575 Market Street31st FloorSan Francisco, California 94105Phone: +1 (415) 288-4260
FrankfurtBockenheimer Landstrasse 33-3560325 FrankfurtGermanyPhone: +49 069 3650638 00
London63 Brook StreetLondon W1K 4HS, EnglandPhone: +44 (0) 20 7518 8900
NETWORK OFFICES
Beijing
Hong Kong
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New Delhi
Shanghai
Transportation & Logistics
Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities. Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence and collaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For more information, visit our website at www.harriswilliams.com/industries.
6
OUR FIRM
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
PAGE |
Logistics Providers
Agility Public Warehousing Company K.S.C.P. $1,605 $1.40 (15.2%) (41.6%) $2.60 53.8% 9.9x 8.4x 6.1x NA NA
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. $908 $9.54 5.1% 16.9% $10.96 87.0% 4.8x 5.2x 4.7x 4.3x 4.1x
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. $2,247 $33.74 (12.5%) (29.1%) $59.47 56.7% 8.5x 7.3x 5.8x 6.0x 5.9x
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. $9,763 $61.75 (0.4%) (14.3%) $76.18 81.1% 14.1x 12.0x 11.0x 10.1x 9.6x
Deutsche Post AG $34,862 $25.84 (4.0%) (17.5%) $33.97 76.1% 9.3x 11.2x 10.2x 6.6x 6.2x
DSV A/S $7,796 $38.23 (0.5%) 24.3% $42.30 90.4% 12.7x 13.9x 15.7x 14.3x 13.1x
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. $785 $20.45 (0.4%) (22.9%) $34.35 59.5% 17.1x NM 17.9x 8.6x 7.0x
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. $7,040 $42.99 (7.7%) (1.1%) $51.80 83.0% 11.4x 10.6x 9.4x 8.9x 8.4x
FedEx Corporation $41,497 $132.97 (7.8%) (23.0%) $185.19 71.8% 7.4x 7.2x 5.7x 5.4x 5.0x
Forward Air Corp. $1,377 $43.00 (1.1%) (8.6%) $57.65 74.6% 11.1x 12.7x 10.2x 8.2x 7.4x
Hub Group Inc. $1,024 $29.82 (14.0%) (16.2%) $44.00 67.8% 9.7x 10.7x 7.2x 7.1x 6.7x
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. $8,706 $67.35 (8.0%) (16.7%) $93.50 72.0% 11.1x 10.7x 8.4x 7.6x 6.8x
Kuehne + Nagel International AG $14,923 $128.47 (4.7%) (4.9%) $149.01 86.2% 15.5x 14.1x 14.4x 13.7x 13.0x
Landstar System Inc. $2,424 $56.87 (0.2%) (16.6%) $73.60 77.3% 12.1x 11.4x 9.0x 8.7x 8.1x
Panalpina World Transport Holding Ltd. $2,223 $105.72 (7.1%) (21.3%) $148.31 71.3% 19.1x 16.5x 15.5x 9.9x 8.4x
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. $792 $8.96 (8.9%) (59.9%) $28.51 31.4% 10.6x 10.1x 6.1x 5.8x 5.5x
Ryder System, Inc. $8,071 $50.46 (10.2%) (43.5%) $100.64 50.1% 5.6x 5.5x 4.6x 4.2x 4.0x
TransForce Inc. $2,798 $16.05 (4.4%) (36.3%) $22.26 72.1% 9.6x 8.5x 7.2x 7.7x 7.5x
United Parcel Service, Inc. $90,584 $91.66 (6.0%) (16.4%) $114.40 80.1% 15.4x 11.4x 10.8x 8.7x 8.2x
Universal Truckload Services Inc. $597 $13.13 0.0% (47.7%) $27.63 47.5% 8.5x 7.5x 5.4x 5.3x 5.1x
UTi Worldwide Inc. $1,298 $7.04 1.4% (40.9%) $14.18 49.7% NM NM NM NM 10.6x
World Fuel Services Corp. $3,006 $38.43 (3.6%) (18.5%) $58.50 65.7% 11.9x 12.3x 9.9x 8.9x 8.1x
XPO Logistics, Inc. $5,081 $22.58 (17.0%) (40.4%) $50.96 44.3% NM NM 16.0x 4.1x 3.5x
Median (4.7%) (18.5%) 71.8% 11.1x 10.7x 9.2x 7.7x 7.2x
Trucking
ArcBest Corporation $417 $18.70 (10.8%) (55.0%) $43.68 42.8% 6.6x 4.6x 2.4x 2.2x 2.1x
Celadon Group Inc. 802 7.62 (26.9%) (65.7%) 29.15 26.1% 7.8x 8.8x 6.5x 4.7x 4.4x
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. 516 16.24 (11.8%) (42.6%) 36.82 44.1% 8.1x 5.6x 4.4x 4.0x 3.7x
Heartland Express, Inc. 1,312 16.16 (4.8%) (38.3%) 27.80 58.1% 11.0x 8.4x 6.5x 5.7x 5.4x
Knight Transportation Inc. 1,878 21.85 (9.1%) (33.0%) 34.73 62.9% 11.2x 8.7x 6.5x 6.1x 5.6x
Marten Transport Ltd. 586 16.64 2.0% (21.5%) 24.92 66.8% 6.4x 5.8x 4.7x 4.0x 3.7x
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. 4,784 54.50 (7.7%) (26.5%) 80.96 67.3% 11.2x 9.2x 7.3x 6.6x 5.9x
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. 258 23.23 (14.1%) (55.1%) 67.61 34.4% 8.2x 8.6x 4.2x NA NA
Saia, Inc. 575 19.95 (6.6%) (61.0%) 52.53 38.0% 9.1x 6.7x 3.7x 3.7x 3.5x
Swift Transportation Company 3,271 13.27 (3.6%) (52.6%) 28.90 45.9% 9.2x 7.5x 5.3x 5.0x 4.8x
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 597 13.13 0.0% (47.7%) 27.63 47.5% 8.5x 7.5x 5.4x 5.3x 5.1x
USA Truck Inc. 228 15.56 (6.3%) (44.2%) 32.14 48.4% 6.7x 5.4x 3.8x 4.3x NA
Werner Enterprises Inc. 1,632 22.30 (9.5%) (25.6%) 33.42 66.7% 6.9x 5.7x 4.5x 4.0x 3.8x
YRC Worldwide Inc. 1,242 11.40 (21.3%) (41.7%) 21.37 53.3% 7.8x 5.0x 4.1x 3.3x 3.0x
Median (8.4%) (43.4%) 48.0% 8.1x 7.1x 4.6x 4.3x 4.1x
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jan-15 Jul-15 Current 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
PAGE |
Rail and Rail Services
American Railcar Industries, Inc. $1,288 $40.76 (16.2%) (20.1%) $67.31 60.6% 6.4x 5.4x 5.1x 5.2x 5.3x
Canadian National Railway Company 47,819 51.75 (2.1%) (22.6%) 62.61 82.7% 12.4x 10.9x 10.1x 10.1x 9.5x
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited 22,844 112.20 (9.4%) (37.4%) 172.60 65.0% 14.2x 12.5x 9.8x 9.3x 8.8x
CSX Corp. 32,086 23.52 (8.6%) (31.6%) 37.67 62.4% 9.0x 8.3x 6.6x 6.6x 6.3x
FreightCar America Inc. 90 17.48 (16.5%) (35.1%) 32.07 54.5% 14.7x 5.2x 2.2x 1.7x 2.1x
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. 5,040 47.90 (6.5%) (42.5%) 105.49 45.4% 10.7x 10.7x 8.5x 8.2x 7.8x
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. 1,122 24.07 (17.3%) (54.4%) 66.50 36.2% 7.2x 5.0x 2.1x 2.4x 3.7x
Kansas City Southern 10,158 69.77 (6.5%) (38.9%) 120.63 57.8% 13.4x 11.8x 9.4x 8.9x 8.0x
Norfolk Southern Corporation 32,025 75.97 (15.1%) (26.4%) 112.05 67.8% 8.7x 8.2x 7.7x 7.7x 7.3x
Trinity Industries Inc. 6,249 21.19 (10.6%) (21.2%) 37.15 57.0% 5.4x 4.8x 4.1x 4.6x 5.0x
Union Pacific Corporation 76,138 74.81 (3.2%) (34.9%) 124.52 60.1% 10.5x 9.1x 7.3x 7.2x 6.7x
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation 6,302 62.79 (10.5%) (26.0%) 105.10 59.7% 14.4x 14.4x 9.6x 8.9x 8.4x
Median (9.9%) (33.3%) 59.9% 10.6x 8.7x 7.5x 7.4x 7.0x
Marine
Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. $914 $6.83 (22.2%) (52.1%) $15.71 43.5% 14.9x 12.8x 9.1x 6.7x 6.4x
Costamare Inc. 2,157 8.20 (20.0%) (49.6%) 20.50 40.0% 9.1x 9.3x 6.8x 6.3x 6.7x
Diana Shipping Inc. 550 2.49 (37.0%) (63.4%) 8.27 30.1% 14.8x NM 15.2x NM 11.4x
Kirby Corporation 3,305 46.04 (15.8%) (44.2%) 84.24 54.7% 8.3x 8.3x 5.5x 5.7x 5.5x
Matson, Inc. 2,122 38.26 (13.7%) 10.6% 53.18 71.9% 8.1x 8.3x 8.1x 6.5x 6.3x
Neptune Orient Lines Limited 5,049 0.86 (1.3%) 27.8% 0.86 99.2% 19.7x NM NM NM NM
Nordic American Tankers Limited 1,448 13.96 (2.2%) 20.2% 17.45 80.0% 20.0x 11.1x 8.9x 7.0x 8.2x
Rand Logistics, Inc. 229 1.19 (40.2%) (69.7%) 3.98 29.9% 8.2x 7.7x 7.6x 6.8x 6.2x
SEACOR Holdings Inc. 1,378 45.59 (16.4%) (34.7%) 78.95 57.7% 7.4x 9.6x 7.7x 6.9x 6.6x
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA 1,764 3.76 (0.4%) (39.5%) 5.76 65.2% 15.9x 12.5x 9.4x 4.1x 3.9x
Median (16.1%) (41.8%) 56.2% 11.9x 9.5x 8.1x 6.6x 6.4x
Transportation Equipment
Accuride Corp. $341 $1.22 (43.8%) (74.2%) $5.47 22.3% 7.2x 6.0x 4.4x 4.6x 4.3x
Dana Holding Corporation 2,652 12.55 (11.2%) (42.0%) 23.48 53.4% 5.8x 5.6x 4.0x 3.9x 3.7x
Gentherm Incorporated 1,500 41.97 (9.7%) 12.2% 57.95 72.4% 10.2x 13.4x 10.0x 9.1x 8.1x
Spartan Motors Inc. 87 3.00 (15.5%) (43.5%) 5.69 52.7% 16.7x 11.9x 9.1x 8.0x 5.9x
Wabash National Corp. 859 10.87 2.0% (8.5%) 15.21 71.5% 6.7x 5.9x 4.3x 4.2x 4.9x
Median (11.2%) (42.0%) 53.4% 7.2x 6.0x 4.4x 4.6x 4.9x
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jan-15 Jul-15 Current 2016E 2017P
Transportation & Logistics
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
PAGE |
Logistics Providers
Agility Public Warehousing Company K.S.C.P. $5,039 $4,873 $4,633 NA NA NA NA NA $254 $296 $265 NA NA NA NA NA
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. 607 580 590 592 624 658 (0.8%) 5.4% 163 158 179 193 209 223 5.8% 7.4%
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. 1,632 1,643 1,785 1,843 1,861 1,913 4.1% 1.9% 296 307 344 379 372 379 8.6% 0.0%
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. 11,359 12,752 13,470 13,585 14,324 15,137 6.1% 5.6% 751 731 797 920 966 1,013 7.0% 4.9%
Deutsche Post AG 73,191 75,621 68,547 65,008 67,610 70,017 (3.9%) 3.8% 4,129 5,116 4,469 4,382 5,253 5,656 2.0% 13.6%
DSV A/S 7,937 8,439 7,896 7,478 7,771 8,083 (2.0%) 4.0% 519 543 486 519 549 576 0.0% 5.3%
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. 758 884 1,173 1,528 1,886 2,322 26.3% 23.3% 27 27 36 66 87 111 35.0% 29.8%
Expeditors International of Washington Inc. 5,992 6,080 6,565 6,727 7,007 7,333 3.9% 4.4% 571 600 644 769 792 839 10.4% 4.4%
FedEx Corporation 42,680 44,287 45,567 47,609 49,900 52,016 3.7% 4.5% 5,367 6,112 6,417 6,891 7,604 8,342 8.7% 10.0%
Forward Air Corp. 584 652 781 959 1,036 1,102 18.0% 7.2% 104 107 127 144 167 186 11.6% 13.6%
Hub Group Inc. 3,124 3,374 3,571 3,542 3,706 3,888 4.3% 4.8% 134 138 135 125 143 147 (2.4%) 8.5%
JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. 4,058 4,527 5,083 6,185 6,787 7,414 15.1% 9.5% 759 830 926 1,055 1,144 1,269 11.6% 9.7%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG 18,699 19,290 17,618 20,249 21,467 22,356 2.7% 5.1% 979 1,070 987 1,050 1,090 1,155 2.4% 4.9%
Landstar System Inc. 2,735 2,628 3,145 3,315 3,421 3,718 6.6% 5.9% 223 201 250 269 281 301 6.4% 5.7%
Panalpina World Transport Holding Ltd. 7,227 7,589 6,752 6,153 6,357 6,583 (5.2%) 3.4% 92 161 150 176 218 258 24.3% 21.1%
Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc. 1,073 1,361 1,873 1,999 2,020 2,135 23.0% 3.3% 81 99 121 129 135 146 16.8% 6.1%
Ryder System, Inc. 6,257 6,419 6,639 6,581 6,893 7,245 1.7% 4.9% 1,396 1,459 1,628 1,799 1,893 2,014 8.8% 5.8%
TransForce Inc. 2,822 2,620 2,817 3,093 3,010 3,063 3.1% (0.5%) 392 318 361 371 376 369 (1.8%) (0.3%)
United Parcel Service, Inc. 54,127 55,438 58,232 58,600 61,714 65,232 2.7% 5.5% 3,201 8,868 6,864 9,756 10,428 11,035 45.0% 6.4%
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 1,037 1,033 1,192 1,122 1,157 1,202 2.7% 3.5% 96 105 115 108 110 116 4.2% 3.4%
UTi Worldwide Inc. 4,914 4,608 4,436 4,284 3,646 3,872 (4.5%) (4.9%) 213 146 84 96 40 124 (23.2%) 13.5%
World Fuel Services Corp. 38,945 41,562 43,386 31,516 31,704 33,151 (6.8%) 2.6% 287 301 319 305 350 374 2.1% 10.8%
XPO Logistics, Inc. 279 702 2,357 7,481 15,274 16,578 NM NM (25) (20) 95 493 1,250 1,446 NM NM
Total $295,078 $306,963 $308,106 $299,449 $319,174 $335,019 4.8% 4.9% $20,009 $27,672 $25,797 $29,996 $33,460 $36,078 8.7% 8.8%
Trucking
ArcBest Corporation $2,066 $2,300 $2,613 $2,670 $2,791 $2,895 8.9% 4.1% $70 $104 $155 $173 $182 $194 35.2% 6.0%
Celadon Group Inc. 475 489 615 888 1,082 1,135 23.2% 13.0% 103 100 97 136 170 179 10.0% 14.7%
Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. 527 539 579 703 726 766 10.1% 4.4% 71 65 89 126 130 138 21.0% 4.6%
Heartland Express, Inc. 546 582 871 742 756 776 10.8% 2.2% 138 149 208 226 225 239 18.0% 2.8%
Knight Transportation Inc. 752 792 926 1,197 1,241 1,345 16.8% 6.0% 184 192 239 294 303 328 16.8% 5.6%
Marten Transport Ltd. 638 659 673 672 735 798 1.7% 9.0% 101 110 115 134 148 158 9.7% 8.6%
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. 2,135 2,338 2,788 2,980 3,165 3,449 11.8% 7.6% 396 460 587 668 739 816 19.0% 10.5%
P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc. 298 313 317 NA NA NA NA NA 41 50 55 NA NA NA NA NA
Saia, Inc. 1,099 1,139 1,272 1,225 1,232 1,274 3.7% 2.0% 107 126 145 151 149 166 12.3% 4.7%
Swift Transportation Company 3,976 4,118 4,299 4,244 4,431 4,615 2.2% 4.3% 573 577 583 629 642 676 3.2% 3.7%
Universal Truckload Services Inc. 1,037 1,033 1,192 1,122 1,157 1,202 2.7% 3.5% 96 105 115 108 110 116 4.2% 3.4%
USA Truck Inc. 512 555 602 520 552 NA 0.5% NA 20 35 60 59 53 NA 44.3% NA
Werner Enterprises Inc. 2,036 2,029 2,139 2,108 2,200 2,294 1.2% 4.3% 318 296 318 391 407 435 7.1% 5.5%
YRC Worldwide Inc. 4,851 4,865 5,069 4,832 4,930 5,122 (0.1%) 3.0% 198 199 197 352 393 415 NM NM
Total $20,948 $21,752 $23,955 $23,903 $24,996 $25,672 7.2% 5.3% $2,415 $2,567 $2,962 $3,448 $3,651 $3,860 16.7% 6.4%
Revenue Avg. Revenue Growth EBITDA Avg. EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P
Transportation & Logistics
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Rail and Rail Services
American Railcar Industries, Inc. $712 $751 $733 $853 $821 $757 6.2% (5.8%) $145 $179 $204 $270 $250 $242 NM (5.4%)
Canadian National Railway Company 9,952 9,954 10,478 9,123 9,189 9,666 (2.9%) 2.9% 4,624 4,568 4,900 4,611 4,723 5,010 (0.1%) 4.2%
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited 5,568 5,631 5,582 4,863 4,902 5,169 (4.4%) 3.1% 1,774 2,194 2,434 2,338 2,449 2,592 9.6% 5.3%
CSX Corp. 11,763 12,026 12,669 11,868 11,276 12,161 0.3% 1.2% 4,523 4,577 4,764 4,812 4,727 5,089 2.1% 2.8%
FreightCar America Inc. 677 290 599 812 719 660 6.2% (9.8%) 41 (8) 17 55 52 39 10.7% NM
Genesee & Wyoming Inc. 875 1,569 1,639 2,001 2,153 2,190 31.8% 4.6% 277 534 574 584 607 641 28.3% 4.8%
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. 1,736 1,685 2,121 2,652 2,771 2,157 15.2% (9.8%) 152 145 237 431 471 319 NM NM
Kansas City Southern 2,239 2,369 2,577 2,419 2,481 2,638 2.6% 4.4% 872 962 1,106 1,080 1,153 1,271 7.4% 8.5%
Norfolk Southern Corporation 11,040 11,245 11,624 10,562 10,600 10,952 (1.5%) 1.8% 4,046 4,179 4,531 4,008 4,172 4,425 (0.3%) 5.1%
Trinity Industries Inc. 3,812 4,365 6,170 6,424 5,873 5,668 19.0% (6.1%) 730 963 1,400 1,651 1,381 1,289 31.3% (11.6%)
Union Pacific Corporation 19,686 20,684 22,560 22,052 22,079 23,283 3.9% 2.8% 8,505 9,223 10,657 10,233 10,601 11,356 6.4% 5.3%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation 2,391 2,566 3,044 3,318 3,490 3,558 11.5% 3.6% 436 485 588 672 710 740 15.5% 4.9%
Total $70,451 $73,136 $79,795 $76,947 $76,354 $78,858 7.3% (0.6%) $26,125 $28,000 $31,412 $30,745 $31,294 $33,013 11.1% 2.4%
Marine
Aegean Marine Petroleum Network Inc. $7,259 $6,335 $6,662 $4,438 $5,005 $4,831 (15.1%) 4.3% $85 $75 $98 $116 $136 $145 11.2% 11.6%
Costamare Inc. 386 414 484 491 501 476 8.3% (1.5%) 238 258 318 340 334 324 12.7% (2.4%)
Diana Shipping Inc. 221 164 176 143 131 151 (13.5%) 2.8% 124 53 50 31 22 49 (36.9%) 24.9%
Kirby Corporation 2,113 2,242 2,566 2,180 2,117 2,222 1.1% 0.9% 509 582 647 576 578 609 4.2% 2.8%
Matson, Inc. 1,560 1,637 1,714 1,903 2,079 2,154 6.9% 6.4% 175 172 203 316 327 341 21.8% 4.0%
Neptune Orient Lines Limited 9,512 8,831 8,617 6,029 5,854 6,113 (14.1%) 0.7% 96 131 294 304 433 519 NM 30.7%
Nordic American Tankers Limited 131 244 351 294 287 265 NM NM 13 (21) 60 220 201 173 NM NM
Rand Logistics, Inc. 109 119 129 149 144 149 11.1% (0.2%) 28 25 29 35 34 37 8.1% 2.3%
SEACOR Holdings Inc. 1,308 1,247 1,319 1,074 1,088 1,173 (6.4%) 4.5% 165 194 241 160 199 209 (0.9%) 14.1%
Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA 395 325 285 2,330 2,368 2,396 NM NM 227 154 140 350 430 444 NM NM
Total $22,993 $21,559 $22,303 $19,031 $19,575 $19,929 (2.7%) 2.2% $1,658 $1,624 $2,080 $2,449 $2,694 $2,850 2.9% 11.0%
Transportation Equipment
Accuride Corp. $795 $643 $705 $690 $679 $701 (4.6%) 0.8% $65 $43 $75 $82 $72 $82 8.1% 0.2%
Dana Holding Corporation 7,224 6,769 6,617 6,042 6,006 6,258 (5.8%) 1.8% 753 706 705 670 669 714 (3.8%) 3.2%
Gentherm Incorporated 555 662 811 860 946 1,046 15.7% 10.3% 67 84 135 149 166 185 30.3% 11.3%
Spartan Motors Inc. 471 470 507 536 553 578 4.5% 3.8% 16 6 9 8 11 15 (19.5%) 35.2%
Wabash National Corp. 1,462 1,636 1,863 1,993 1,954 1,883 10.9% (2.8%) 108 142 161 214 209 176 NM (9.1%)
Total $10,506 $10,179 $10,504 $10,122 $10,137 $10,466 4.1% 2.8% $1,008 $981 $1,084 $1,122 $1,127 $1,172 3.8% 8.2%
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Revenue Avg. Revenue Growth EBITDA Avg. EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P
Transportation & Logistics
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
1. Capital IQ.
2. MergerMarket.
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DISCLOSURES
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INDUSTRY UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
