Joint GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop Joint Global Change Research Institute College Park, Maryland, USA

Transportation in GCAM – A Community-Based Approach for Model Improvement PAGE KYLE, LEON CLARKE, SON KIM (JGCRI/PNNL) GOURI SHANKAR MISHRA, JACOB TETER, GEOFF MORRISON, SONIA YEH (INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION STUDIES, UC-DAVIS)

September 18, 2012

Motivation of Present Work

!   This project is unique in that its original motivation was to enhance the modeling capability for ITS, but ITS wanted the improvements to be incorporated into the core version of GCAM (and therefore made available to the whole community)

!   Customization of the structure and the data to specific regions !   E.g., light duty vehicles are very different between the USA and India, in

more ways than can be appropriately captured by stock average efficiency and occupancy factor

!   Separation of vehicle size classes !   To allow for separation between technology improvement and changes

in vehicle sizes over time as nations develop !   Explicit tracking of vehicle stocks

!   Existing representation was built when GCAM had 15-year timesteps, so stock carryover wasn’t as important

!   Exploring the inclusion of non-motorized modes (walking, biking) !   [Future] Changing the energy balances in several regions

Existing Transportation Sector in GCAM

!   Demands: Passenger, Freight, and International Shipping !   Services are tracked in physical units (e.g. pass-km, tonne-km) !   Symmetrical representation in all regions

Process for collaboration

!   ITS collected data and put together representations of the transportation sector in the 14 GCAM regions !   Data sources for light-duty vehicle disaggregation include (1) national inventories

of passenger travel, (2) estimates of vehicle stocks, and (3) manufacturers’ data on vehicle sales

!   Variables provided include base year energy consumption, and the following for all time periods: vehicle energy intensity, load factor, and costs (levelized capital, non-fuel variable costs, subsidies)

!   Data were provided in a standard reporting template

!   JGCRI consulted on which technologies to include, adjusted technology names for inter-regional consistency, and generated a system for building model input XML files !   In each region

!   Up to four size classes of cars and light trucks !   Up to three engine capacity classes of motorized two-wheelers !   Up to four size classes of freight trucks

Example of Passenger Sector Structure

!   This structure is for the USA; the structure is tailored to each region

Light Duty Vehicle Characteristics

!   Nine classes of cars and light trucks defined, along with four motorcycle size classes !   Horsepower and vehicle weight were the primary factors in determining

the classes !   The same car in different regions is mapped to the same size class !   There is still inter-regional variation in the technologies (see below)

0   50   100   150   200   250   300   350  

Mini  Car  

Subcompact  Car  

Compact  Car  

Midsize  Car  

Large  Car  

Van  

Mul=purpose  Vehicle  

Large  Car  and  SUV  

Light  Truck  and  SUV  

Horsepower  (hp)  

Max  

Min  

0   1   2   3   4   5   6  

Energy  Intensity  (MJ/vkm)  

Max  

Min  

Potential New Research Questions

!   Effect of income-related preference for larger vehicles on energy consumption and emissions !   Disaggregation of impacts of technology change and consumer choice

!   Endogenous modeling of impact of vehicle retirement policies on energy consumption and stock average efficiency

!   Costs of CAFE standards

0  

500  

1000  

1500  

2000  

2500  

3000  

3500  

4000  

2005  

2010  

2015  

2020  

2025  

2030  

2035  

2040  

2045  

2050  

2055  

2060  

2065  

2070  

2075  

2080  

2085  

2090  

2095  

Billion

 pass-­‐km

 

Compact  Cars,  USA