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Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary Local Travel Model Results Ralph D. Samuelson, Ministry of Transport

Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

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Page 1: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary Local Travel Model Results

Ralph D. Samuelson, Ministry of Transport

Page 2: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

How Transport Outlook’s Models Fill a Need

► Almost all policy analysis requires projecting the future, such as:

► travel demand and traffic volumes

► fuel use/emissions

► public health and safety

► Models can bring consistency and rigour to these projections

► However, in order to provide maximum value, the models should be consistent and continually improved

► Outlook’s modelling effort is therefore very much a means to a broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability at MoT

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Page 3: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Outlook’s Set of Interlinked, System-Level Models

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Aviation Sector Local Travel Sector Freight Sector

Domestic Air

Travel

International

Air Travel

Airport Departures/ Leg-

Based Air Travel

Aircraft Vehicle-

Kilometres

Travelled/ Fleet

Aircraft Fuel and Emissions

Household Travel

Vehicle-Kilometres

Travelled/Vehicle

Numbers

Road Fleet/Fuel/

Emissions

Health

Outcomes

Freight Flows

Freight Tonne-

KM by Region

Rail/Shipping

Fuel/Emissions

Page 4: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

The Base Scenario

►The Base Scenario portrays where demography and economic growth alone is likely to take us, assuming no changes in either technology or consumer behaviour

►Does not take into account planned infrastructure investments

►Exception: Public transport in Auckland is based on Auckland Transport projections incorporating the City Rail Link and other planned public transport enhancements in Auckland

► In this sense it is a very ‘business as usual’ scenario

► Not a mid-point of the four alternative scenarios

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Page 5: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Base Scenario – Projected Number of Trips (All Modes)

5

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2012/13 2017/18 2022/23 2027/28 2032/33 2037/38 2042/43

Mill

ion

s o

f Tr

ips/

Year

Light vehicle driver Light vehicle passenger Pedestrian Public transport Bike, motorcycle, vehicle share/taxi, other

Page 6: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Base Scenario – Change in Local Trips Per Capita by Mode

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2012/13 2042/43

Light vehicle driver 695.5 703.2

Light vehicle

passenger 340.6 292.1

Pedestrian 222.1 210.6

Bus 30.5 42.1

Cyclist 16.0 14.4

Train 4.6 10.9

Motorcycle 4.3 3.8

Vehicle share, taxi 3.5 4.5

Ferry 1.3 1.4

Other 2.3 2.7

TOTAL 1,321.8 1,285.7

Page 7: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Base Scenario – Percent Change in Population and Trips by Region 2012/13->2042/43

7 * Based on Statistics New Zealand Medium Projection 2013(base)

Page 8: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Five Scenarios: Base Case + Four Alternatives

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“Staying Close to the Action”

scenario: Live in Transit-

Friendly/Dense Big Cities

“Golden Triangle”

scenario: Live in

Suburban/Sprawling

Big Cities

“@Home in Town and Country”

scenario: Live and Work

Anywhere You Please

“Metro Connected”

scenario: Live in Big and

Smaller Cities

Moderate Technological Progress/

Economic Growth/Population Growth

Face-to-Face

Interaction

Highly Valued

Digital

Communications

Can Substitute for

Transport

Rapid Technological Progress/Economic

Growth/Population Growth

Page 9: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Comparison of Projected 2042/43 Population by Region by Scenario

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Page 10: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Comparison of Projected 2042/43 Distance Travelled Per Person by Mode in New Zealand

10

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

An

nu

al K

M p

er P

erso

n

Vehicle share/taxi

Bike/motorcycle/other

Pedestrian

Public transport

Light vehicle passenger

Light vehicle driver

Page 11: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Comparison of Projected 2042/43 Distance Travelled per Person by Mode in the Auckland Region

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Page 12: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Comparison of New Zealand Vehicle Kilometres Travelled Across Scenarios

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Page 13: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Comparison of Auckland Region Vehicle Kilometres Travelled Across Scenarios

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Page 14: Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary€¦ · Transport Outlook Modelling Programme and Preliminary ... broader end: developing an ongoing in-house modelling capability

Where to From Here?

► Currently reviewing model results and preparing for publication

► Outlook to be published in March

► Plans are to publish on-line:

► Model results in full detail

► Models themselves, for those who wish to extend the analysis

► The project does not end in March:

► Continually improve the models

► Respond to needs as they are identified

► Produce updated editions of the Outlook publication

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