Transport Data Availability for ASIF Analysis

in Asia

Sudhir Gota Technical Manager, Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia)

International Expert Meeting (IEM)-UNECE Geneva

24 April 2012

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CO2 Emission from Energy Consumption in Transport (Million tons)

Can you guess which Asian developing country is this?

High growth in emissions?

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Transport CO2 emissionsGDP/Capitavehiclesfuel price (gasoline)

Thailand - High growth in emissions?

The estimates for CO2 emissions using top down and bottom up varies from 48 to 80 Million tons in 2005 !!

Data and CO2 Quantifications Needed at

Multiple Analysis Scales

Project

Plan & Region

Nation

Need to take care to evaluate system-wide impacts, induced demand

Optimal scale to consider system impacts for metropolitan plans/programs

Often best for evaluating large networks and system policies

Source – Michael Replogle

Issues - Need-based Data Collection

CAI-Asia, 2010

On demand Adhoc Routinely collected

Issues - Lack of Coordination

Ministry Data

Transport

Motor vehicle registration

Licenses issued

Passenger and freight kilometers

Rail Length of railways

Passenger and freight kilometers

Public Works

Length of roads

Surface type and paved roads

Number and length of bridges

Road accidents

Energy

Fuel consumption by volume and by type of

fuel

Fuel pump price

Environment Emissions inventories

Economy/

Trade/ Customs

Economic growth – , etc.

Volume of trade; Vehicle imports

Finance Economic growth and infrastructure growth

Transport investment

Census Population Source: CAI Asia (2011)

Issues - Budget Limitations

CAI-Asia, 2010

GDP at current prices by economic sectorGDP at constant 1994 prices by economic sectorPopulation and population density by provinceAverage urban population by provinceAsphalted, stone paved, mixed stone, soil road (km)Volume of passengers traffic by type of transportVolume of passengers traffic by the road by provinceVolume of freight traffic by type of transportVolume of freight by type of transportVolume of freight by transport sectorInland waterways (km)Total length of bridges (m)Number of bridgesVehicle registration by vehicle type and by fuel typeOrigin-destination surveysVehicle kilometer travelled (VKT) per veh-fuel typeIn-use veh populationby veh type and fuel typeTraffic countOccupancyRidership.……...…...

By

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Needed for data planning

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Funding needs to be structural and not project driven or dependent on foreign assistance ( except capacity building)

Issues - Lack of Harmonized Methodologies,

definitions and Limited Data Sharing

Academic/ Private sector databases not shared with

government

CAI-Asia, 2010

Data with

consultant

Data with

consultantData with

consultant

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consultant

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consultant

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consultant

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consultant

Data with

consultant

Reported to Government

Agency (client)

Data to be

collected

Inconsistent government data

National level

Province-level

data

Other countries

City-level

data

Data Quality and Accessibility

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Dept of Census & Statistics

Dept of Motor Traffic: Data Generator

New Registrations: Vehicle make, Color, Manufacture year, Model, Veh. No., Engine No., Tire size, Wheel base, Chassis No., Type of body, Gross veh. weight., Veh category, Ownership, Usage, Import license, Overall measurement, Purpose of use, Registration status, Driving side, Country of origin, Fuel used, Pay load, Cylinder capacity, Seating capacity, Veh type description by manufacturer

Divisional Secretariat: Data Generator

Example: Vehicle Registration Data Flow in Sri Lanka

For annual revenue license: Vehicle class, Fuel used, Vehicle weight, others Da

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Central Bank of SL

Vehicle class

Veh class, Fuel used Easily accessible to data users

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CAI-Asia, 2010

Data Mapping for Transport Input Parameters

IND INO NEP PAK PHI PRC SIN SRI THA VIE

CAI-Asia, 2012

Result: Guesswork

India transport emissions baseline and forecast done by more than 20 reputed institutions and publications

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India Transport CO2 Emissions (million tons) BAU

Source - Crunching Numbers – Sudhir Gota

Result: Guesswork

India transport emissions baseline and forecast done by more than 20 reputed institutions and publications

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India Transport CO2 Emissions (million tons) BAU

Source - Crunching Numbers – Sudhir Gota

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Result: Guesswork

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India Transport CO2 Emissions (million tons) BAU

How about the future? Source - Crunching Numbers – Sudhir Gota

ASIF Assumptions ?

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IEA (2005) Schipper

etal. (2005) India Vision 2020

(1995)

ADB/CAI Asia

(2008) Planning Commission

(2001) Others

Two Wheelers 7500 9000 3500 7500 4140 (IVEM)

Three Wheelers 40000 30000 - 19000

29200 km/year (in 1980 with increase of

80 km/year) 16500

Car/LDV 8000 10000

7000 (in 1995 and increasing 100km

every year)

28100 14685 (BEE)

Light Commercial Vehicle 20000

23000 in 1995 with 200 km every year 36500

Heavy Commercial Vehicles (incl Bus)

60000 Truck / 40000 Bus

40000 in 1995 with increasing 400km

every year 60000

40000 in 1995 with increasing 400km

every year Bus > 100000

(MORTH)

Vehicles Registered = 100 million in 2007 (MORTH), PARC (Y segment) = 64 million in 2008,

PARC (ACMA) = 95 million in 2010 PARC (SIAM) = 87 million in 2005

Example - India

Consumption of oil in transport - Annual Growth

Rates

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1980 to 1990 1990 to 2000 2000 to 2009

Bottom-up data not available to validate this.

don’t show this to policy makers yet !! Source : IEA data

What is CAI Asia trying to do?

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1. Select Indicators + Input Parameters (Long list)

2. Data Mapping for Energy and Transport Input Parameters

4. Develop Guidelines for development, measurement and use of GHG and AP Indicators

3. Select Indicators + Input Parameters (short list)

5. Data collection of transport and energy input parameters (input data)

Collection of available data

Estimation for unknown data

6. Derive indicators + 7. Review results 8. Upload of data and Indicators in CitiesACT

10. Dissemination and Communication

Launch at BAQ 2012

9. Benchmarking Report

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ADB Transport Data in Asia

Study

UNCRD EST Data and Indicators

Low Emissions Cities Project

ADB Data Initiative

TEEMP (ITDP, Veolia,

ADB, WB)

IGES MRV

Shell PHI

TRL: Comp Review

Transport + CC

ITPS Low Carbon Transport ASEAN

GIZ Country Profiles

EF Green Freight China

Program

Knowledge Partnership for measuring Air

Pollution and GHG Emissions in Asia

Open Data: CitiesACT – www.citiesACT.org

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CitiesACT is an online database that features data and information on Air Quality, Climate Change & Energy, and Transport.

Dissemination and Communication

• Launch at BAQ 2012 (Dec 2012) • Dissemination at other events

and through partners

Thanks Lee

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For more information

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center@cai-asia.org Unit 3505 Robinsons-Equitable Tower

ADB Avenue, Pasig City Metro Manila 1605

Philippines

CAI-Asia Center

cpo@cai-asia.org 901A Reignwood Building,

No. 8 YongAnDongLi Jianguomenwai Avenue Beijing

China

CAI-Asia China Office

india@cai-asia.org Regus Elegance

Elegance Tower, Mathura Road, Jasola Vihar, New Delhi

India

CAI-Asia India Office

CAI-Asia Country Networks

China . India . Indonesia . Nepal . Pakistan . Philippines . Sri Lanka . Vietnam

CAI-Asia Center Members 231 CAI-Asia Partnership Members

• 45 Cities

• 19 Environment ministries

• 13 Other Government agencies

• 17 Development agencies and foundations

• 66 NGOs

• 37 Academic and research institutes

• 32 Private sector companies

Donors in 2011 Asian Development Bank ClimateWorks Foundation Energy Foundation

Fredskorpset Norway Fu Tak Iam Foundation German International

Cooperation (GIZ) Guangdong Government Institute for Global

Environmental Strategies (IGES) Institute for Transport Policy Studies

Institute for Transportation and Development Policy International Union for

Conservation of Nature Korea Transport Institute MAHA Philippine

Business for the Environment United Nations Centre for Regional

Development (UNCRD) United Nations Environment Program Partnership

for Clean Fuels and Vehicles (UNEP PCFV) Veolia World Bank

www.cleanairinitiative.org