Transport and Climate ChangeDifferent Policy Scenario in France

Maurice GIRAULTMinistère de l'Equipement, des Transports et du Logement, France

I - Passenger and Freight Transport 1970-1996

II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020 methodology and field of projection hypothesis and scenarios for transport policy

III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results

IV - Projection of pollution and CO2 1996-2020 methodology and results

V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector

Annex I Expert Group meeting - Transport Roundtable, 18 February 2000

I - Passenger and Freight Transport 1970-1996

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

GDP

Passengers-km

Freight t-km

100 in 1990

GDP, Passengers-km and ton-km - Road, rail, air or Inland waterways

II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020

Methodology and field of projection

Analysis of trends and econometric model for: interurban passengers transport road, rail

and air transport on national network

passenger road traffic local and urban traffic included

freight transport in France road, rail and inland waterways

II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020

scenarios and hypothesis for transport policy

3 scenarios for GDP  1,9% 2,3% 2,9% per year

II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020

4 hypothesis for regulation and transport policy hypothesis A: market and liberal policy =

fuel taxes constant hypothesis C: taxes for charging external

cost diesel excise from 0.37 to 0.65 Euro/l for road freight : regulations are respected

complied with 35 working hours a week under «cheep conditions».

external costs include safety, congestion and environmental costs.

II - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020

4 hypothesis for regulation and transport policy (ctd.) hypothesis B: policy is middle way

between A and C = BAU hypothesis D: high transport taxes for

slowing down road traffic for road freight: regulations are respected

complied with «expensive conditions» for 35 working hours a week.

III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results

Example of freight transport: the 3 scenario for GDP

Annual growth period 1996 - 2020

GDP: 2,9% Medium growth : 2.3% GDP: 1,9%1970-1996 Transport regulation scénario

B B BRoad 3,8% 3,5% 2,6% 1,9%Rail -1,1% 1,6% 1,0% 0,4%Inlandwaterways

-3,1% -0,1% -1,0% -2,0%

TOTAL 2,4% 3,1% 2,3% 1,6%

III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results

Impact of hypothesis for regulation and transport policyPassengers transport, passenger-km

Annual growth period 1996 - 2020Medium growth of GDP: 2.3% per

year1970-1996 Transport regulation scénario

A B C DRoad (national network) 4,4% 2,8% 2,6% 2,5% 1,4% of which motorway 9,7% 4,2% 4,0% 3,8% 2,2%

Rail 1,6% 1,6% 1,7% 2,1% 2,7%Air 9,3% 4,2% 3,4% 3,2% 3,0%TOTAL 3,6% 2,7% 2,5% 2,5% 1,7%

III - Projection of Transport Demand 1996-2020: results

Freight transport: 1970-1996-2020t-km

Annual growth period 1996 - 2020Medium growth of GDP: 2.3%

1970-1996 Transport regulation scénarioA B C D

Road 3,8% 2,9% 2,6% 2,5% 1,9%Rail -1,1% 0,7% 1,0% 1,1% 1,7%Inland waterways -3,1% -1,5% -1,0% -0,8% 0,0%

TOTAL 2,4% 2,5% 2,3% 2,2% 1,8%

IV - Projection of pollution and CO2 1995-2010-2020

Growth of CO2 emissions for road transport depends on changes in regulations and in % of diesel car.

% of diesel car: steady (flat)

Scenario A B C D

2010/1995 21% 19% 17% 6%2020/1995 25% 23% 20% -4%

% of diesel car: decrease

Scenario A B C D2010/1995 21% 20% 21% 8%2020/1995 24% 24% 26% -2%

CO2 emissions with ACEA agreement

Impact of air conditioning included

IV - Projection of pollution and CO2 1995-2010-2020

Emission of carbon (with air conditioning)

Millions tons of carbon

Impact of air conditioning about emission of CO2: three millions tons in 2020.

= 3,5% of car emissions or 2% of all vehicles emissions.

% of diesel car: steady (flat)2010 2020

1995 A B C D A B C D

33,3 40,2 39,6 39,1 35,3 41,8 40,9 40,1 31,9

V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector

Projects and policies of non technical measures in France Present national Program don’t allow to reach Kyoto’s

targets Six sectorial groups have been convened to propose new

measures : Transport Housing Energy Specific uses of electricity Agriculture and forestry Industry

What reduction of carbon emission for each sector in France ?

What reduction for each sector in other European country ?

V - Other specific measures against greenhouse effect in transport sector

An integrated approach, closely co-ordinated with Transport services master plans

A new approach at national and regional levels to define transport system objectives

Urban transport plans A renewed approach to organise transport

systems in big cities aiming to reduce road traffic and to improve other modes

Twelve measures have been assessed:

Actions on HGV drivers Speed reduction for LGV Private drivers training Speed enforcement TERN traffic management Traffic lights management Public transport priority with TLM Urban motorways traffic management Supplementary measures to Cars

Manufacturers agreement Alternative vehicles Urban transport plans Urban policies (land use planning)

4 Transport scenarios used for services master plans

A scenariostability of excises and railways faredecreasing of air fare and of freight costs

B scenariostability of petrol excise and moderate rise of dieselstability of railways fareweak rise of freight costs

C scenariocorrection of diesel excisefall of railways fare for people

D scenariodiesel and petrol price 2€/litre in 2020fall of railways fare for peopleKerosene taxation (50%)Big improvement of working conditions in road freight transport

Only D scenario allows to reach Kyoto targets

But it entails a social cost of 750 Euros /tCIt is not socially acceptable.We need other solutions to reach this target.

1990 2010 2020Baseline 30.3 44.4 54.4Tech.Meas. 3.3 7 to 8functionning of Transp. 0.8 1Transport Policy 0.5 to 3 1 to 7Total of reduction 4.6 to 7.1 9 to 16

Main findings :Importance of transport policy and land use planning, particularly at European level

Technical complementary measures, in continuation of Auto-Oil program:

• an agreement with light and heavy goods vehicles

manufacturers,• inclusion of N2O (resulting from cars catalyst) in

Auto-Oil program,• better vehicles design for air conditioning,• speed limitation of cars by construction.

European policy for energy taxation:• with important increasing of petrol and diesel

minima of taxation,• with a common European position for kerosene

taxation in IACO.

Common elements of transport policy:

• harmonisation of national policies for HGV (notably

for speed limitors and tachometers control),• harmonisation of working condition in road

transport,• development of light public transport systems in

urban areas,• development of a real intermodal and multimodal

European system for goods transport (with a very

important part of railways and sea shipping), and

including regulation and strict management of road

goods transport.