© OECD/IEA 2014

Translating Bioenergy Global Analysis into National Policies, Strategies and Roadmaps

Asia Pacific Regional Workshop on Biomass Energy Resource Assessment

Bangkok, Thailand - 6 July 2015

Simone LandolinaActing Head, International Partnerships and Initiatives

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Key role of bioenergy to reduce CO2 emissions globally

Reaching the 2DS will require 42 Gt CO2 annual emissions reduction by 2050

Biomass is the only renewable energy source that can make a contribution in all sectors, providing around 10% of total CO2 emissions reduction

Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2015

6°C Scenario emissions: 58 Gt ------------>

2°C Scenario emissions: 16 Gt ------------>

Bioenergytechnologies

Emissions reduction in 2050

Bioenergy power 1.0 Gt CO2-eq

Bio-power + CCS 0.3 Gt CO2-eq

Bioenergy heat (industry)

0.5 Gt CO2-eq

Bioenergy heat (buildings)

0.1 Gt CO2-eq

Biofuels 2.1 Gt CO2-eq

Total 4.1 Gt CO2-eq

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Renewable electricity projected to scale up by 45% from 2013 to 2020

Renewable Energy Medium-Term Forecast

Source: Medium-Term Renewable Energy

Market Report 2014

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0%

5%

10%

15%

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500

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TWh

Hydropower Bioenergy Onshore wind

Offshore wind Solar PV Geothermal

STE/CSP Ocean % total generation (right axis)

Historical data and estimates Forecast

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Bioenergy currently provides some 2% of global electricity production, and generation is expected to rise by 55% by 2020.

Significant increase expected in China and other non-OECD Asian countries

Bioenergy Medium-Term Forecast

Source: Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

0

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TWh

OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe Africa Non-OECD Asia China Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East MTRMR 2013

World bioenergy power generation and projection by region

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Bioenergy by far the most important source of renewable heat.

Traditional use of biomass continues to dominate the production of heat. Modern uses of biomass for heating are increasing and are expected to rise from ca. 13 EJ today to around 15EJ by 2020.

Bioenergy Medium-Term Forecast

Source: Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

World final renewable energy use for heat by source

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Non‐OECD countries account for more than 90% of global bioenergy used for heat.

In Asia, China and India are the biggest consumers of bioenergy for heat in the buildings sector, however significant use of bioenergy in ASEAN countries in general (particularly for water heating).

Bioenergy Medium-Term Forecast

Source: Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

Share of RE in total final energy consumption for heating by world regions (2012)

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2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

billio

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volumetric

United States biofuels Brazil biofuelsOECD Europe biofuels Rest of the world biofuels

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Biofuels supply (adj. for energy content)As % of global road transport fuel demand

Biofuels production rose sharply between 2007 and 2011 before levelling off due to policy uncertainties in a number of key markets.

Today about 3.5% of road transport fuels comes from biofuels, and this is expected to rise to around 4% by 2020. Growth is particularly expected in a number of SE Asian countries which are aiming to improve energy security.

Source: Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2014

Bioenergy Medium-Term Forecast

3.5% Road Transport Fuel

World biofuel production

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Biofuels production falling behind targets of IEA Biofuel Roadmap

In a low CO2 scenario (IEA 2DS) biofuels’ share in total transport increases to 27% in 2050

Without significant improvements of the policy framework for advanced biofuels, targets in the 2DS will not be met!

Source: IEA (2014) Tracking Clean Energy Progress

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Even with growing competitiveness, policies remain vital to stimulating investments

The right support depends on the maturity of the technology and the degree of market uptake

Supporting bioenergy deployment (I)

Solid biomass boilersHousehold biogas systems

Combustion and steam cycle Direct co-firing

Advanced biomass cookstovesConventional biofuels

GasificationTorrefaction

Advanced biofuelsBioenergy CCS

© OECD/IEA 2015

Source: adapted from

Energy Technology

Perspectives 2015

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Better understanding innovation can increase confidence in its outcomes

In order to accelerate technological progress in low-carbon technologies, innovation policies should be systemic

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Bioenergy provides numerous examples of technologies which no longer require high levels of financial support, if resource and appropriate market and regulatory framework in place (affects system prices and financing)

So, the focus of policies should shift away from economic incentives towards creating the conditions by: Providing a long term stable policy framework that leads to a predictable market

Provide certainty of income through long term PPAs

Dynamic policy approach differentiating by sector (industry / buildings / transport)

Develop regulation and business models for distributed generation (heat / power)

Tackle non-economic barriers

Address system integration issues

Supporting bioenergy deployment (II)

IEA Bioenergy Technology Roadmaps provide global vision and guidance on deployment pathways, however there is no “one size fits all”…

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Operative since 2010 upon mandate of the IEA Ministers to foster international collaboration on low-carbon energy technologies

Mission:

Disseminating IEA analysis and policy recommendations aimed at accelerating the deployment of low-carbon energy technologies, in line with 2DS efforts

Enhancing multilateral engagement with emerging and developing economies

Adapting IEA global analysis to regional and local contexts

International Low-Carbon Energy Technology Platform

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Defines the process of developing and implementing a bioenergy technology roadmap

Collaboration between the IEA and the FAO, with IRENA and GBEP key contributors

Roadmap methodology guidance through four steps, illustrated by case studies

Case studies from IEA Member and Partner countries (Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, South America)

Comprehensive decision support toolbox, including and referencing work of other international/regional organisations

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How2Guide for Bioenergy

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South East Asia Bioenergy Expert Workshop

23-24 July 2014 – Bangkok, Thailand

Jointly organised by IEA, FAO and IRENA in collaboration with the Ministry of Energy of Thailand

Thematic focus on sustainability of bioenergy

Over 60 participants including 7 countries in the ASEAN region as well as the European Commission and other int. orgs.

Information we sought to capture:

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• How and to what extent have policy makers and regulators in SEA

undertaken/supported bioenergy technology roadmaps?

• Which are the drivers for bioenergy roadmaps in the different

countries? Are drivers in SEA different from those in other world

regions?

• Have project developers participated (and how) in the development

of bioenergy technology policies and roadmaps?

• Which indicators have been used to track progress in the region?

Were roadmaps adjusted in light of experiences gained through

implementation?

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Ind

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tive

str

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of

the

rep

ort

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• Introduction• Background and context

• Bioenergy outlook and technology perspectives

1

• Planning and preparation• Conducting baseline research

• Identifying bioenergy stakeholders

2

• Visioning• Strategic considerations in bioenergy policy (e.g. drivers)

• Assessing bioenergy sustainability

3

• Roadmap Development• Identifying barriers and action options to the deployment of bioenergy

• Setting milestones and responsible actors

4• Implementation, monitoring and adjustment• Qualitative and quantitative indicators for monitoring progress

Short ‘signposting’ document (40-50 pages)

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Building capacity is key to successful technology deployment

Collaboration between international organisations can help maximising the impact of capacity building 16

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Conclusions

Bioenergy has the potential to provide a growing contribution to energy needs and plays a very important role in low-carbon energy scenarios in each energy sector

To deliver this enhanced contribution will be challenging. A supportive, long-term policy framework which allows the next generation of plants to be built and operated is essential

Key issues that must be addressed include:

• Ways to reduce costs of the energy delivered so as to reduce the need for financial support

• The resolution of outstanding sustainability uncertainties

• The development of cost effective and sustainable supply chains

• The development of supportive policy and regulatory frameworks appropriate to the maturity of the technologies and markets

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Thank you for your attention!