Transitions to Democracy

How and why they occur

Transitional vs. consolidated democracies

• Transitional democracies -- newly launched or re-democratized liberal democracies

• Consolidated democracies:– no significant challenges to regime

– “the only game in town” (Schmitter & Karl)

• Some questions:– How do we know a regime is consolidated?

– How do regimes become consolidated?

How and why do transitions occur?

Different scenarios:

1. Voluntary: powers that be decide or facilitate transition

2. Internal pressure/interplay

3. External pressures

4. Regime collapse

Voluntary transition:

Ruling elite decides to withdraw, facilitates transition:

• Military regimes: – Military does what it set out to do, exits (Turkey,

Ghana)

– Military realizes that power is corrupting, time to leave• Possible case: Brazil?

• Governing elites or their successors pack it in

Internal pressure/interplay

• Authoritarian regime slackens, allows space for opposition

• Opposition forces take advantage – demonstrate, etc

• Authorities divided about what to do:– Hard-liners v. soft-liners

• Soft-liners win out…popular pressure continues…– More divisions…. A transition which was never

intended occurs

Variant

• Opposition forces take advantage of openings in authoritarian regime’s constitution:

• Chile under Pinochet: – Constitution provided for referendum on his continuing

as president

– Citizens use that opportunity to say no

– Transition takes place under Pinochet’s constitution

Cases:

• Spain in 1975

• Brazil, Argentina & others, early 1980s;

• Poland in 1989

• German Democratic Republic, 1989

Poland

Ineffective Communist regime• Periodic demonstrations rollback price increases• Solidarity Trade Unions: Gdansk & elsewhere

– 1981 strikes and demonstrations– Military rule under Gen Jaruzelski

• The Roman Catholic Church: sanctuary?• 1989 Exit pact

– Solidarity and Gen Jaruzelski agree to share power

• 1991 – definitive transition

German Democratic Republic, 1989: How do you get a wall open?

• Mass demonstrations in Leipzig

• Exit via Hungary: people vote w. their feet

• Signals from USSR: Gorbachev’s message

• Loss of political will

• Underlying factor: – TV -- people knew how much better it was in

the west

External pressure:

• Other countries demand transition: make aid and trade conditional on transition taking place, laws being followed

• External demands provide opportunities for internal forces:

• Cases: Mexico, other countries in Latin America

Regime collapse in the USSR

• Gorbachev’s attempts at reform– Glasnost– Perestroika

• Both attempts to reform CPSU from within

• Weakening the party removes lynchpin which held USSR together

Facilitating factors:

• Constitutions which are nominally democratic• Incentives –

– membership in EU for southern and eastern European countries

– trade?• Failing economic model?• Educated citizenry?• Restraint among opposition forces?• Globalization?

– If so, which facets and what difference do they make?

Examples of restraint:• Pacts among outgoing and incoming

forces:– Venezuela 1958– Spain 1977– Poland 1989

• ‘Safe conduct:’ Agreement not to prosecute members of the outgoing regime

An end to transitions?

• Iran: – Has it ever reached the tipping point?

• Russia, Ukraine, most ex-USSR:– What you see is what you get?

• China?

• Iraq??

• Syria??

Question:

Are there certain circumstances under which transition and consolidation are more likely or less likely?

• Level of wealth?

• Level of education?

• Media access?

• Failing economy? Or growing economy?