Kevin K. Yee

Oct 15, 2014

MemCon 2014

Transitions: A Roadmap to Low-Power Memory

2 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Look at HistoryLast three decades – PC driven

1980 1990 2000 2010

Mem

ory

Density

1981 IBM PC

16 kB base memory

1990 office standard

640 kB memory

2013 gaming laptop

32 GB

2000 gaming computer

4 GB memory

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What drives the market now…next? The next 3 decades - ?

Source: ISH (iSuppli) for 2013

52%43%

32%

31%

13%

13%

13%

2009 2015

Memory Use by Market Segment

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A Look at the Present…FutureNew Applications, new systems…new challenges

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Shifting Memory RequirementsMobile changes the priority

Bandwidth Power Cost Capacity

Mobile ♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦♦ ♦♦

Consumer ♦ ♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦

Networking ♦♦♦ ♦ ♦ ♦♦

PC/Server ♦♦♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦♦♦

* Cadence assessments

Mobile shifts focus from DDR to LPDDR!

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• LPDDR4 is more power efficient than LPDDR3 for certain tasks

• For Mobile applications, this is everything

Mobile and Low Power DDRLPDDR3 vs. LPDDR4

Power

Power

Time

Time

Active

Active

Standby

StandbyLPDDR4

LPDDR3

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Proof in Point Today’s Smartphones

Xaiomi Mi4

16G

Samsung

Galaxy S5

32G

Apple

iPhone 6

128G

Perf

orm

an

ce

2014 20152013

Apple iPhone 5

32G

The DDR Memory Roadmap

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• Not really

• JEDEC drives memory specifications

• Memory is a high volume manufacturing business– Driver1: Price – low cost and volume

– Driver 2: Need – power or performance

• What is the inflection point?– Price vs. need

– Chicken & Egg – low price first or volume demand first (cost)

Does JEDEC drive transitions?

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The DDR Memory RoadmapMemory Specifications

SDRAM

DDR

DDR2

DDR3

LPDDR

DDR4

LPDDR2

LPDDR3

LPDDR4

Wide IO

Wide IO 2

HMC

HBM

GDDR2

GDDR3

GDDR4

GDDR5

1993 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20142012

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• Technology or Price?– New technology hard to adopt

– High initial price limits adoption or transition

– Low initial volume keeps prices high

– The vicious cycle

• Breaking the cycle– Mobile could be the thing that breaks the cycle

– Need is great and the volumes high (quickly)

– This means that prices can drop quickly leading to faster adoption

– Economy of Scales

What drives Memory Adoption?Breaking the Cycle

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• End Product Needs– Larger and higher resolution displays and cameras

– Bigger and faster applications

– Bragging rights

• Memory costs– Memory is traditionally driven by cost

– If the need is not there it is all about costs

– The lower the cost, the faster the adoption

What drives Memory Adoption?Need vs. Cost

Multi-core Processing Power

(1.5 GHz+)

New Content Consumption

User Experience

Larger Display (HD UHD)

Hi-speed Wireless (4G LTE, WiFi

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• Screens are getting larger

• Smartphones going from 4 inch to 4.7 inch to 5.5 inch

• Tablets going from 7 inch to 8.0 inch to 10 inch

What drives the mobile need?Beyond Power: Density

Year Memory Density Memory Type

2009 256MB LPDDR

2010 512MB LPDDR

2011 1GB LPDDR2

2012 2GB LPDDR2

2013 2GB LPDDR3

2014 3GB LPDDR3

2015 4GB ? LPDDR3/4 ?

Flagship Smartphone Memory Density

2Gb LPDDRx

4Gb LPDDRx

6~8Gb LPDDRx

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More Bandwidth in MobileHigher resolution and screen size

1

2.3

3.4

4.5

5.7

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

Resolution is getting higher

From 1280x720 to 3840x2160 and beyond

> size and resolution = > Memory

Inch

es

Screen size progression for smartphone and tablets

HD

1280x720

FHD

1920x1280

QXGA

2048x1536

WQXGA

2560x16006

QSXGA

2560x2048

UHD

3840x2160

Smartphones

Tablets

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More Performance in MobileFrom 400 to over 3200

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

400 400

800

1066 1066

1600

2133

3200

4266

LPDDR2

LPDDR3

LPDDR4

PC-DDR4 Bandwidth

Me

mo

ry S

pe

ed

in

Mb

ps

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Case Study: Apple iPhone and iPadVolume and ramp rates

Source: Macworld

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013

iPhone Unit Sales

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Q3 Q4 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013

iPad Unit Sales

8752 839814102

1623518647 20338

17073

37044

8700

35064

26028 26910

3270 41887331

4694

11123

47789

1543411798

17042

22860

924614036

Data from Macworld

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Case Study: Apple iPhoneApple iPhone volume and ramp rates!

Source: Macworld

A Game Changer:

5 Million phones in a weekend

20 Million phones in a month

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LPDDR transitions in Apple iPhone Models

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

iPhone2007

iPhone 3G2008

iPhone3GS2009

iPhone 42010

iPhone 4S2011

iPhone 52012

iPhone 5C2013

iPhone 5S2014

iPhone 62014

2015

iPhone Memory Size/Type

1 GB

LPDDR3

128MB

LPDDR

256MB

LPDDR

512MB

LPDDR2

1 GB

LPDDR2

?

Source: Wikipedia, 10/2014

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Case Study: Xiaomi SmartphoneRecord Shipment in 2014

Source: Xiaomi web site, 10/2014

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WW smartphone shipments2009~2018

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mobile Volumes will impact

the Low-Power Memory Transition !

Units in M

illio

ns

Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014

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Smartphone shipments in China 2011~2013

1715

26

3336

45

62

70

78

87

95

91

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q1, 11 Q2,11 Q3, 11 Q4, 11 Q1, 12 Q2, 12 Q3, 12 Q4, 12 Q1, 13 Q2, 13 Q3, 13 Q4, 13

Units in Millions

Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014

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LPDDR Exceed DDR in PerformanceMobile moves into PC space

LPDDR Performance is converging!

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LPDDR & DDR Price convergingLittle to No Premium for Low Power

1Q 2012 Pricing

− 4Gb LPDDR -> $6.80

− 4Gb DDR3L -> $4.20

− LP Premium = 62%

Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast

− 4Gb LPDDR2 -> $4.75

− 4Gb DDR3L -> $3.60

− LP Premium = 32%

Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast

− 4Gb LPDDR3 -> $6.40

− 4Gb DDR3L -> $3.60

− LP Premium = 78%

Source: JEDEC Mobile Forum 2013

Convergence

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2014

LPDDR3 x32

LPDDR2 x32

DDR3L x16

DDR3L-RS x32

DDR3L-RS x16

4Gb Equivalent prices of DRAM Alternatives

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

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Mobile Market TransitionLow Power High B/W Memory

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

LPDDR LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 Wide IO

LPDDR Roadmap Transition is happening!

LPDDR2 LPDDR3LPDDR4

WideIO2

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• Factors Driving Transition– Lower power

– Greater bandwidth

– Higher volume/lower cost

• Transition is happening NOW!– From DDR to LPDDR

– From LPDDR3 to LPDDR4

The Low-Power Memory Roadmap TransitionSummary

DDR

LPDDR4

LPDDR3

LPDDR2

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