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Transitioning Toward Retirement:
Observations and Outlook
Pierre-Carl Michaud Industrial Alliance Research Chair for the Economic Challenges of
Changing Demographics Retirement and Savings Institute, HEC Montréal
November 2018 with David Boisclair, François Laliberté-Auger,
Maxime Juckenack-Mellinger and Jeiel-Onel Mezil
Agenda
The changing face of retirement in Quebec
Challenges to monitor: Is delayed retirement desirable? Health and the ability to work
What is the future for retirement?
The Changing Face of Retirement in Quebec
The Many Paths to Retirement
Key points entailing changes to employment status:
� Start of SPP benefits (often before age 60)
� Eligibility for a QPP retirement pension
� Old Age Security (and GIS)
� Disability and other conditions prior to age 65
Older Workers
Figure – Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0018-01
Employment Rate Evolution in Quebec (Men and Women)
Years
Empl
oym
ent
Rat
e
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Start of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Age
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Retraite Québec
Evolution of the Starting Age of QPP Benefits (Men and Women)
More than 60 years old
Tran
siti
on
Per
cen
tage
Year
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Age
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999
QPP/CPP Benefits
Application for QPP
Pensionsente RRQ
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Age
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999 CPP 2000-2011 QPP 2000-2011
QPP/CPP Benefits
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Employment Termination
Employment Termination
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999
Age
Figure – Statistics Canada, LISA
Employment Termination
Employment Termination
Age
Pro
bab
ility
CPP 1990-1999 QPP 1990-1999 CPP 2000-2011 QPP 2000-2011
Retirement Reasons
Figure – Statistics Canada, General Social Survey
Retirement Reasons for Retirees General Social Survey 1994-2007, Age 68+
Women Men
Health Mandatory Anticipated Technology Unemployment Health Mandatory Anticipated Technology Unemployment
Retirement Reasons
� Increased number of disability pensions
� Increased prevalence of RRSP withdrawals to fund (early)
retirement
� Observed stable tendency to re-enter the workforce
Reasons for Re-entering the Workforc Of those not working at the age of 59, only 13% re-enter the workforce (LISA, 1990-2011)
Reasons for Re-entering the Workforc Of those not working at the age of 59, only 13% re-enter the
workforce (LISA, 1990-2011)
Figure – Statistics Canada, General Social Survey
Reasons to re-enter Workforce General Social Survey 1994-2007
Women Men
Financial Help Health Offers Dislike Financial Help Health Offers Dislike
Challenges to Monitor
Agenda
The changing face of retirement in Quebec
Challenges to monitor: Is delayed retirement desirable? Health and the ability to work
What is the future for retirement?
Gains from Delayed Retirement
{ } −
GAINt (r ) = max PV(BENEFITa, r) PV(BENEFITt , r ) a>t
� Mortality (Statistics Canada projections)
� Federal benefits gains test (SimTax)
� Provincial and federal tax gains (SimTax)
Without Tax Effect (Optimal Age)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
With Tax Effect (Optimal Age)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
Without Tax Effect (Gains in Thousands)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
With Tax Effect (Gains in Thousands)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
Tax Effect
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
Figure – Calculations: iA Chair with SimTax and SIMUL
Without Age Credit
SPP
Inco
me
(Mu
ltip
le Y
MP
E)
QPP Income (Multiple YMPE)
Who Applies at Age 60? Regression of the probability of application at age 60 among those
aged 59 (LISA, 1984-2011)
Figure – Impact on probability of pension application at age 60
Ben
efit
Pro
bab
ility
Eff
ect
at 6
0
Who Applies at Age 60? Regression of the probability of application at age 60 among those
aged 59 (LISA, 1984-2011)
Figure – Impact on probability of pension application at age 60
Ben
efit
Pro
bab
ility
Eff
ect
at 6
0
Other Changes to Monitor
� Pension supplement
� Actuarial increase/decrease
� Employment termination no longer a concern
� Increased credit for experienced worker
� Plan improvement
Agenda
The changing face of retirement in Quebec
Challenges to monitor: Is delayed retirement desirable? Health and the ability to work
What is the future for retirement?
Longer Lifespans and the Ability to Work
� Longevity is on the rise
� Implications for health (e.g., chronic illness)
� What could the future hold for experienced Quebec
workers?
Projected Changes in Workers’ Health
Figure – COMPAS projections for ages 60-69
Pre
vale
nce
Prevalence Projection, Age 60-69
Year
Cancer Diabetes Respiratory Cardiac Stroke Cognitive Disability
Ability to Work
Work determinants (ESCC 2014) applied to COMPAS projections
Ability to Work
Work determinants (ESCC 2014) applied to COMPAS projections
Figure – COMPAS projections of ability to work
Work Projection, Ages 60-69 (Fixed Education 2018) W
ork
Fra
ctio
n
Year
Work Fraction
What is the future for retirement?
The Future for Retirement
There are reasons for optimism, though the future is uncertain. Positive signs:
The Future for Retirement
There are reasons for optimism, though the future is uncertain. Positive signs:
� Employment rates of older workers should continue to rise
� Tax changes and favourable plans (tax credits, pension
supplement)
� Potentially lighter penalties (GIS/OAS)
The Future for Retirement
There are reasons for optimism, though the future is uncertain. Positive signs:
� Employment rates of older workers should continue to rise
� Tax changes and favourable plans (tax credits, pension
supplement)
� Potentially lighter penalties(GIS/OAS)
Negative signs:
� Chronic illness among older workers
� A changing workplace (adjustment to technological change)
� Low level of financial literacy makes it difficult to access
increased incentives