Transitioning CMAQ for NWS Operational AQ Forecasting

Jeff McQueen*, Pius Lee*, Marina Tsildulko*, G. DiMego*, B. Katz*

R. Mathur,T. Otte, J. Pleim, J. Young, G. Pouliout, D. Wong, K. Schere(NOAA/ARL/ASMD & EPA)

P. Davidson(NWS/OST)

*NOAA/NCEPEnvironmental Modeling Center

Operational Requirements• Driven by NCEP Operational Meteorological Model (Eta-12)

• I/O Formats:– Only machine binary, GRIB and BUFR, disk space limitations

• Time Requirement:– 12 Z 48 hour forecast available by 17:25 Z (1:25 pm EDT)– 06 Z 48 hour forecast available by 13:00 Z ( 9 am EDT)– 65 IBM Power 4 procs available– 12 Z start after Eta is complete (14:30 Z)

• Robustness:– Thoroughly tested & evaluated with retrospective and real-time

experimental runs– Available to NWS Gateway, NDGD: 99% reliability, 24x7 NCEP support– Accuracy: 90% exceedence hit rate

Air Quality Forecasting Configuration for Operational

Implementation● NE Domain: 12 km 166x142x22 top at 100 mb

● 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O3) : 06 and 12 UTC runs

✔ Eta-Post corrections to Land-Use, vertical temperature interp

✔ Updated emissions inventories:

✔ Project 2002 point and area source inventories for 2004

✔ Updated Mobile Emissions using MOBILE6 inventory

✔ Simplified Temperature dependency on mobile emissions

✔ Use of GFS ozone for upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above 6 km

✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below

✔ 6 hour cycling

✔ Minimum Kz in CMAQ PBL set over rural areas to increase mixing and help reduce O3 overprediction at night (initiated on 7/22/04)

● Real-time Verification

● BUFR O3 and CMAQ output evaluated with VSDB/FVS system

Air Quality Forecasting Experimental Expanded Domain Configuration● Eastern US : 48 hour forecasts of ozone (O3) : 06 and 12 UTC runs

✔ 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies, 268x259x22) run in parallel

✔ Minimum Kz mixing

✔ Transformed grid to reduce interpolation error bet. Eta, emissions processor and CMAQ

✔ Expanded emissions inventories

✔ GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary

Conditions above 6 km

✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary

conditions below (Initiated on 8/3/04)

✔ Additional processors (~65) used

✔ 12 z Available by 17:30 UTC

Air Quality Forecasting Research Aerosol Domain Configuration

● Eastern US : 24 hour forecasts of O3 & Aerosols: 12 UTC run only

✔ Same system as operational except

✔ 3x expanded domain (East of Rockies) run

✔ Began July 16, 12z w/ 24 hr cycling

✔ Expanded emissions inventories

✔ GFS ozone as upper Lateral Boundary Conditions above top 6 km

✔ “ Cleaner” chemistry lateral boundary conditions below

✔ 33 processors on Development Machine (less (less reliability, 8x5)

✔ Available by 21 UTC

00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18

soilozone

Forecast:etapremaqcmaq

6h

6h

6h

6h

6h

48h

48h

48h48h

48h20 August 2003:NCO parallel implemented6h Cycling

GRIB outputto TOC

AIRNOW Ozone obs

With wrong land-use

With correct land-use

Land-use Coupling to Eta

Eta-Post Temperature Interpolation Error

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

285 290 295 300

eta

T hydrst

TV hydrst

Current Physics Coupling w/ NCEP Eta-12

Current

Capability

Met Model (Eta, NMM, WRF)

AQ Model (CMAQ)

Core E grid C Grid

Clouds Full Cloud Microphysics

Eta cloud water

Radiation GFS/NASA RRTM Derived from RH for photolysis

PBL Mellor-Yamada Pleim-Xu

Land Surface NOAH common Eta canopy conductance terms for Pleim-Xu

Air Quality Forecasting2004 User Access

✔ NE Domain (1x, O3) :

✔ Public: NDGD and TOC ftp server

✔ Surface ozone predictions

✔ State Forecasters: HPC web site

✔ Sfc O3 & met plots

✔ Daily (2pm) conference calls

✔ HPC forecasters trained

✔ Focus group: EMC web site

✔ Expanded met plots (pbl hgt, sw rad, ventilation index….)

✔ Sfc & upper level O3 and precurser plots (NOx, NOy,CO,SO2)

✔ ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone

✔ Experimental Domain (3x, O3):

✔ Focus group only: EMC Web page

Products

Predicted Sfc Ozone(1, 8h, max)

Eta cloud cover Eta PB L hgt

Air Quality Forecasting2004 Verification (1x and 3x)

✔ NCEP EMC FVS System :

✔ 1 and 8 hour O3 averages

✔ RMSE, Bias, STD, correlation coefficients Time series by fhr and day, subregion

✔ using EPA AIRNOW O3 network began 7/12/04

✔ FHO contingency exceedence stats (POD, FAR, threat scores)

✔ Began 8/1/04

✔ NWS/MDL

✔ Daily Spatial obs vs predicted exceedence maps

✔ Contingency exceedence stats since June 1

✔ NOAA/OAR/EPA

✔ Retrospective evaluations (8/12-19, 2003)

✔ RT:Similar Stats except stations averaged over CMAQ grid points

✔ ICARRT web page: sfc & UL ozone timeseries vs observations

NE DOMAIN Retrospective Evaluation

Maximum 1 Hr ozone Errors (Aug.12-19,2003)

 

 

Runs RMSE(ppb)

MAGE MNGE MNB MFB MB NMB NME R

NO GFS 15.37 11.81 21.85 11.76 7.96 4.88 8.15 19.71 0.64

W/ GFS 16.21 12.59 23.45 14.00 9.75 6.10 10.17 21.00 0.62

W/ GFSMobile6New pt/area

14.50Final2004

11.19 21.00 11.91 8.36 4.69 7.83 18.68 0.64

LU_flawd (2003 config)

22.84

2003

        16.0 26.76 30.88 0.62

LUcorrect

16.42         7.45 12.43 21.04 0.63

Eta Real-Time VerificationAugust 2004

Temperature Downward SW

Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS time-series binned by FHR

RMSE Bias

Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS 36 h forecast time-series by day

RMSE Bias

Real-Time VerificationEMC FVS forecast by sub-region

BIAS 1x vs 3xNE, SE US

BIAS 1x vs 3xE. Canada, APL US

Real-Time VerificationNWS MDL Evaluation Predicted vs Obs Exceedence

Summary

● NCEP Currently running 3 systems:● Operational NE (1x) ● Experimental (3x)● Research Aerosols (3x)

● Retrospective and real-time results show improvements from 2003:

● Mean daytime bias reduced from ~17 to 5 ppb● Mean daytime rmse reduced from 22.8 to 14.5 ppb● However, still general overprediction in day, poorer

performance at night

FY05 Planned NCEP Runs

• Production (2x/day to 48 hrs) – Operational:  Eastern U.S.(3x) Eta CMAQ-Ozone pending evaluation – Experimental:  CONUS Eta/WRF CMAQ

• Improved Coupling w/ Radiation

–  Development/Research – Eastern U.S. CMAQ w/WRF coupling

– Eastern U.S. retrospective aerosol runs

BACKUPS

NE DOMAIN Retros. Evaluation1 Hr Avg ozone Errors (8/12-19, 2003)

 

 

-92 -90 -88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -78 -76 -74 -72 -70 -68

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

-20 to -10 -10 to 0 0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40

-92 -90 -88 -86 -84 -82 -80 -78 -76 -74 -72 -70 -68

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

0 to 10 10 to 20 20 to 30 30 to 40 40 to 50

RMSE

Mean Bias

ICARRT Evaluation