Transitioning a Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System to Operations

1. Introduction• NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Draft

Strategic Plan (22 Feb 2010) lists five long term

goals, including:

o Enable Integrated Environmental Prediction

Capabilities and Services Supporting Healthy

Communities and Ecosystems.

• Develop a prototype ecological system to predict the

likelihood of encountering sea nettles (Chrysaora

quinquecirrha), a stinging jellyfish, in the

Chesapeake Bay

(http://155.206.18.162/seanettles/index.php).

o Advance the proof-of-concept for a NOAA

Ecological Forecasting System that is scalable

and extensible.

2. Sea Nettle Predictions• Sea nettles seasonally infest the Chesapeake Bay

and affect many activities.

• Recreational boaters, swimmers, commercial

waterman, and energy producers (Calvert Cliffs

Nuclear Power Plant) currently use these prototype

sea nettle predictions.

• Operational system will produce gridded forecasts

of sea nettle predictions (e.g., Fig. 1).

• Sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity from the

Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecasting System

(CBOFS2) drives a habitat model (Fig. 2).

• CBOFS2 is a 3-dimensional hydrodynamic model

developed by NOAA’s National Ocean Service

(NOS) for the Chesapeake Bay & run at the National

Centers for Environmental Prediction (Fig. 3).

Figure 1. Example prediction of the likelihood of encountering sea nettles, on 17 August 2007 in the Chesapeake Bay.

Figure 2. Conceptual approach of the sea nettle ecological prediction system. Salinity expressed in Practical Salinity Units (psu).

Salinity psu

SST oC Likelihood of Sea Nettles

Frank Aikman1, Christopher Brown2, Mary Erickson1, David Green3, Edward Mandel3, David Manning4, Therese Pierce3, Steven Pritchett3, Anthony Siebers5, David Soroka3, Hendrik Tolman6, Elizabeth Turner1 , Nathalie Valette-Silver7, Doug Wilson8

1NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 2NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, College Park, MD, 3NOAA, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, 4NOAA, National Weather Service, Eastern Region, Bohemia, NY, 5NOAA, National Weather Service Forecast Office, Wakefield, VA, 6NOAA, National Weather Service,

National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD, 7NOAA National Ocean Service, Durham, NH, 8NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office, Annapolis, MD

Figure 3. Schematic of the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecasting System (CBOFS2). CBOFS2 simulates salinity, temperature, and other physical variables in the bay.

Figure 4. Five sequential stages of the Operations and Services Improvement Process (OSIP) of the National Weather Service and their intent.

Stage 1: Develop Statement of Need, and construct initial project plan.

Stage 2: Develop Concept of Operations.

Stage 3: Define technical requirements, develop business case, operational development plan, and national strategic training and educational plan.

Stage 4: Present plans for approval to deploy operational system.

Stage 5: Deploy, maintain, and assess operational system.

Collection &

Validation

Concept Exploration & Definition

Applied Research &

Analysis

Operational Development

Deploy, Maintain &

Assess

Temperature and Salinity

Wind River Flow and Load

Precipitation

Solar Radiation

Tidal Harmonics

CurrentsAtmospheric Deposition & Ventilation

Heat Flux

0%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Conditions at the mouth of the Bay• Near-real time water level• Climatological vertical profiles

of temperature, salinity, and NO3, PO4, O2 concentrations

4. Significance• Help establish an Ecological Forecasting System at

NOAA.

• Can be modified for other ecological forecasts,

including harmful algal blooms and water-borne

pathogens in the Chesapeake Bay.

• Represents a test case for integrated environmental

service at NOAA, where several NOAA Line Offices

contribute. o Promote an enterprise architecture and earth

system management infrastructure,o Link multidisciplinary capabilities and leverage

existing observing, data and computational

infrastructures,o Disseminate ecological forecasts along with

weather and water forecasts. These will be

integrated with the NWS Internet, coastal waters

and/or surf zone forecasts.

3. Transition Process• Use the NWS Operations and Services

Improvement Process (OSIP) 5-stage requirements

management process for bringing research results

into NWS operational environment (Fig. 4).

• Charter an Integrated Work Team (IWT) with

appropriate governance practices, and identify

milestones and outputs.

oThe IWT has been established and is composed

of members from NWS, NOS, and NESDIS.

• Statement of Need and Project Plan are complete.

• The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction system

is anticipated to be operational by the end of 2010.

Habitat Model

SST 26-30oCSalinity 10-16 psu

Likelihood of Sea Nettles

35

0

30

25

20

15

10

5

35

0

30

25

20

15

10

5

0%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100