Transition to fossil free transport system (Using Sk¥ne as a case)

IIIEE Theses 2010:22

Future without oil Transition to fossil free transport system

(Using Skåne as a case)

Laura Kazlauskaitė

Supervisors

Andrius Plepys

Mikael Backman

Thesis for the fulfilment of the Master of Science in Environmental Management and Policy

Lund, Sweden, September 2010

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Published in 2010 by IIIEE, Lund University, P.O. Box 196, S-221 00 LUND, Sweden, Tel: +46 – 46 222 02 00, Fax: +46 – 46 222 02 10, e-mail: [email protected].

ISSN 1401-9191

Future without oil: Transition to fossil free transport system

Acknowledgements

Note to self:

Well done You for surviving and not “killing” yourself or somebody else


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Abstract Due to reasons such as climate change and fuel security, the Skåne County have arrived at a clear political vision to become fossil-free. A large part of this vision is seen as the transition phase in transportation, which is also the most demanding. The challenge is how to balance between tradeoffs as well as achieve the goal without sacrificing too much on the way. In order to accomplish this research the thesis question therefore asks: How could the transition to a fossil-free transport system in Skåne be achieved?

Laura Kazlauskaitė, IIIEE, Lund University

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Executive Summary Due to reasons such as climate change and fuel security, the Skåne County have arrived at a clear political vision to become fossil-free. A large part of this vision is seen as an immense transition phase in transportation sector, which is also the most demanding as currently transport in Skåne is about 94 % dependent on fossil fuels (Olsson, 2010). Such transition appears to be feasible based on existing and projected technologies, resource availability, and associated expenses, though requires purposeful steering by government and other key actors in society. In order to accomplish this research the thesis therefore focuses on how the transition to fossil-free transport system in Skåne could be achieved.

Carrying out such transition involves exceptional challenges for political institutions and almost certainly requires new and innovative governance approaches. Satisfying the goal to reach fossil-free transport system can look like a daunting task for the region therefore the objective here is to propose a framework which could act as a guideline to evaluate if efforts are progressing into the right direction.

The research mainly focuses on the transition governance, although specific technological, economical and political issues as well as the importance of information are also considered since those can not be left aside since one does not go without others. The successful transition in public sector could be inspirational for other stakeholders interested in more sustainable transportation and on a long run could lead to a new fossil free transport system in Skåne. It is also important to realise, that transition to fossil free transport system is not just about the fuel substitution; preventative approach, namely eliminating the mobility needs, is as much important.

The research focuses on land-based transport, which is divided into three areas according to the potential levels of influence from the side of the regional government. The highest potential for influence is in the public transport, while the lowest potential for influence is for private mobility, where national influence is assumed to be of core importance and need; likewise the private transport area can in a way be influenced by regional government, though the most influence on it comes from national level.

The author is aware of the fact that concrete strategic decisions very much depend on particular conditions and that there is no single solution for everyone, thus it was chosen to focus on a more general level of transition governance. Still some examples of currently available and practised means that could be explored and adapted for local needs by using the suggested Transition Management framework are described.

Transition Management is an iterative and cyclical form of multi level governance which includes the following activities on the different levels (Grin, et al., 2010; Kemp, et al., 2007):

Strategic level: visioning, strategic discussions leading to formulation of long term goals;

Tactical level: process of networking, negotiating, building agendas and coalitions;

Operational level: process of experimentation and implementation;

Reflexive level: monitoring, evaluating and learning.

The key focus in transition management is on anticipation and adaptation. Based on this Transition Management framework could be of assistance to guide and govern the transition to fossil free transport in Skåne. It could be used not only for planning and improvement of communication between various levels of administration and different stakeholders, but also


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as the tool that would support the accomplishment of the set goal (to have a fossil free transport system) in a structured manner. Moreover, Transition Management model could help Administrative Board of Skåne County - Region Skåne - to coordinate the transition on a strategic level, namely it could serve as a guideline to evaluate if efforts are progressing into the right direction and to ensure that each action along the way contributes to the desired end – a fossil free transport system.

By being among country’s pioneers in the transition to fossil-free transport system, Skåne could have more gain than loss. To begin with, it could improve not only the environmental performance, but also create new business opportunities, start up new enterprises thus contributing to economic development which would also lead to the improved image of the Region and attract more investment in the long run. If the region is to succeed in transition to fossil free transport it needs long-term and effective policies that send clear signal to the society about reduced dependency on fossil fuels. Likewise the proposed Transition Management framework could help Region Skåne to govern transition to fossil free transport system within its own vehicle fleet. Accordingly other stakeholders interested in making the change within their transport fleet would have more material and a valid example of the transformation.

Among the recognized region specific success factors are: Raw materials, Infrastructural prerequisites, Pioneering position, Enthusiastic players, Interested politicians and A "significant" market. In addition the County is considered to have especially good conditions for biogas production as well as rapidly expanding infrastructure, and support from strong players. Thus it is likely that Skåne can go before the rest of Sweden and the rest of the world in reaching the fossil-free transport system; what would not only lead to the environmental improvement but also let to prepare for the anticipated shortage of fossil fuels.


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Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES.................................................................................................................................III

LIST OF TABLES...................................................................................................................................III

ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................................................................III

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................1 1.1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................................................1 1.2 PROBLEM DEFINITION ............................................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 RESEARCH OBJECTIVE AND QUESTIONS ................................................................................................................. 2 1.4 RESEARCH METHODS ................................................................................................................................................. 3

1.4.1 Data collection and sources .................................................................................................................................... 3 1.4.2 Data analysis ........................................................................................................................................................4

1.5 SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS .......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.6 THESIS OUTLINE..........................................................................................................................................................6

2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................................... 7 2.1 BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................................................................7

2.1.1 Fore- and backcasting ......................................................................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Transition theory ...................................................................................................................................................8 2.1.3 Systems theory/thinking........................................................................................................................................ 8 2.1.4 Top-down, bottom-up approaches...........................................................................................................................8

2.2 TRANSITION MANAGEMENT MODEL .......................................................................................................................9 2.2.1 Circular elements of Transition Management ......................................................................................................11 2.2.2 Role of government ...............................................................................................................................................12

3 FACTUAL BACKGROUND: TRANSPORT IN EUROPEAN UNION AND SWEDEN...........14 3.1 EU ...............................................................................................................................................................................14 3.2 SWEDEN......................................................................................................................................................................15

4 CASE STUDY BACKGROUND: SKÅNE - CURRENT SITUATION .........................................17 4.1 GENERAL INFORMATION.........................................................................................................................................17 4.2 REGION SKÅNE .........................................................................................................................................................17

4.2.1 Transport ............................................................................................................................................................18 4.2.2 Public transport: Skånetrafiken ..........................................................................................................................19

4.3 BIOGAS IN SKÅNE .....................................................................................................................................................20 4.4 FACTS: BIO-GAS IN THE CITY OF MALMÖ..............................................................................................................21 4.5 FACTS: VÄXJÖ ............................................................................................................................................................21 4.6 FACTS: KRISTIANSTAD MUNICIPALITY...................................................................................................................22 4.7 CONSTRAINTS TO THE TRANSITION TO FOSSIL FREE TRANSPORT SYSTEM .....................................................23 4.8 TRANSITION POTENTIAL .........................................................................................................................................23

5 ANALYSIS........................................................................................................................................25 5.1 INTERVIEW RESULTS.................................................................................................................................................25

5.1.1 Transition Stakeholders ......................................................................................................................................25 5.2 SKÅNE THROUGH THE GLASSES OF TM (PHASES) ...............................................................................................26

5.2.1 Public Transport .................................................................................................................................................27 5.2.2 Private mobility ...................................................................................................................................................28 5.2.3 Personal mobility .................................................................................................................................................28

5.3 SKÅNE THROUGH THE GLASSES OF TM (CYCLES) ...............................................................................................29 5.3.1 Public Transport .................................................................................................................................................29

6 DISCUSSION...................................................................................................................................31


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6.1 TRANSITION GOVERNANCE .................................................................................................................................... 31 6.2 COMMUNICATION OF TRANSITION........................................................................................................................ 32 6.3 TRANSITION CONSTRAINTS AND POTENTIAL ...................................................................................................... 33 6.4 PROMISING TRANSITION PATHWAYS: WHAT CAN A REGION DO? .................................................................... 34

7 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......................................................................... 36 7.1 GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS............................................................................................................................. 37

REFERENCES........................................................................................................................................ 38

APPENDIX I........................................................................................................................................... 41

APPENDIX II ......................................................................................................................................... 43

APPENDIX III........................................................................................................................................ 44

APPENDIX IV ........................................................................................................................................ 46


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List of Figures Figure 1-1 The questionnaire design process adapted from (Fox, 2008)....................................... 4 Figure 2-1 Top-down and bottom-up views Source: http://jurmo.us/log/wp-

content/uploads/2007/04/topdownbottomup.jpg................................................................. 8 Figure 2-2 Transition management model adapted from (Sondeijker, 2009)..............................10 Figure 2-5 Regular policy versus transition management process (Loorbach, 2007).................13 Figure 3-1 Share of GHG emissions in the EU-27, by main activity (Larsson & Ihren,

May 2010)......................................................................................................................................14 Figure 4-1 The Skåne county (adapted from Swedish National Atlas) ........................................17 Figure 4-2 The distribution of fuel in Kristianstad in 2006 Adapted from (Kristianstad

kommun, 2009) ............................................................................................................................22 Figure 5-1 Positioning Skåne within TM framework......................................................................28 Figure 6-1 Interaction and influence between different power levels ..........................................35

List of Tables Table 1-1 Thesis outline......................................................................................................................... 6 Table 0-1 List of interviewees.............................................................................................................41

Abbreviations CO2 – carbon dioxide;

EU – European Union;

EV – electric vehicle;

GDP – gross domestic product;

GHG – green house gas (-es);

IT – information technology;

RME - rapeseed methyl ester;

TM – transition management;


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1 Introduction Two roads diverged in a wood

And I took the one less travelled by And that has made all the difference

-- Robert Frost

1.1 Background The threat of severe climate change caused by emissions of so-called greenhouse gases (GHG) is perhaps the biggest global challenge the humanity has ever faced. (Li, 2009)

The amount of GHG in the atmosphere keeps on rising. Between 1990 and 2005 the global GHG emissions increased by 25% and the further increase is expected unless proper actions to reduce them will be taken (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2009). According to Chapman (2007), about 26% of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions come from transportation sector1 which is also among those few sectors where the emissions grow the most. In the European Union (EU) the transport sector is the main source of CO2 emissions representing 21% of the total GHGs. Reduction of fuel consumption and a shift towards alternative non-fossil fuels allowing for a reduction of CO2 emissions from road transportation are among the chief EU strategies for the development of a sustainable transport system and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (Li, 2009).

In Sweden the transport sector (excluding the railway) is still completely dependent on fossil fuels and is dominated by road system. Although the vehicles have become more energy efficient, the emissions in Sweden have increased since 1990 along with the increased transport volumes. Between 1990 and 2005, the increase in GHG emissions from transport in Sweden was about 10%. (Energimyndigheten och Naturvårdsverket, 2007) According to Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (2009), the biggest increase of CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuel comes from energy and transport sectors. In 2008 Sweden managed to reduce the total CO2 emissions from road transport by 2%, in part due to the measures that were promoting the broader use of bio fuels, more fuel efficient vehicles, etc.

On the other hand, the global oil production has already reached its maximum, the so called “peak oil”(Aleklett & Campbell, 2003). Since mid 1990s Sweden has managed to reduce its oil use in all sectors, except one – transport; where on the contrary, the dependence on oil has been increasing over the last two decades (Venuppropet, 2010). Moreover, the transport sector is considered to be the most difficult one to make a change and thus perhaps requiring the most attention due to the expected decline in global production of oil in the near future after the “peak oil” (Governmental Commission, 2006). Consequently, while expecting a decline in fossil fuel stocks a transition to alternative fuels seems to be imminent. Besides the environmental improvement, a break through in the oil dependency and the security of fuel supply are other key reasons calling for the transition to fossil free transport system.

In line with the EU Climate mitigation goals, policies and strategies and in order to decrease its dependency on oil, the Swedish government has created a new vision for the country aiming to have an independent (from fossil fuels) vehicle stock by 2030 (Ministry of Enterprise Energy and Communications, 2009). If this takes place, it would bring not only a reduction of GHGs emissions and reduced environmental impacts, but also it would lead to

1 Car use, road freight and aviation


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an apparent possibility to secure energy supply, strengthen Swedish economy as well as promote sustainable development and create new business opportunities for industry. In brief “the phase-out of oil can further strengthen (Swedish) position as one of the world’s leading nations in sustainable development” (Commission on Oil Independence, 2006).

Skåne, Sweden's southernmost county has decided to go beyond the national requirements and adopted an ambitious plan. Administrative Board of Skåne aims to take the lead and be a front runner in the environmental field. In order to phase out fossil fuels and contribute to the development of a sustainable society the Regional Council have set a strategy with the ambition to have vehicles used by regional public services and administrated by the Regional authorities run on renewables by 2020. (Jansson, 2010; Regional Council, 2009)

1.2 Problem definition Due to the motives mentioned above there are a lot of efforts taking place to reduce the amount of fossil fuel used in the transport sector. The Administrative Board of Skåne aims to take the lead and be a front runner in the environmental field. In order to phase out fossil fuels and contribute to the development of a sustainable society The Board has set a strategy for putting all vehicles used by regional public services run on renewable fuels by 2020. (Jansson, 2010; Regional Council, 2009)

Measures to promote environmentally friendly transport concepts in Skåne will require interventions and collaboration between various stakeholders, from government to industry. To make a gradual transition to a sustainable mobility system it is important to direct and steer it. A lot has been already done in Skåne. Currently, the proportion of renewable fuels in vehicles in Region Skåne (Administrative Board of Skåne) is 24%, of which biogas constitutes for 5%. And Region Skåne would like to use biogas and other locally produced fuels (e.g. bio-diesel) as substitutes for fossil ones. The main advantages of such alternatives are environmental as well as the security of supply (Region Skåne, 2009a). However the efforts has not been well structured thus region could do much better by using a more organized management and/or governance framework. Accordingly reaching its goals in the remaining ten years would be more realistic.

Transition to fossil free transport system does not only contain the change in the technology, it involves the change in human mind, behaviour and likely in the lifestyle as well, while not putting aside direct bearings on the economy. For this a framework could be of assistance to guide and govern the transition. The parallel benefit of the successful transition in public sector would subsequently act as an inspirational springboard to other stakeholders interested in more sustainable transportation and in long term could lead to a new fossil free transport system including all vehicles running in the entire geographical area of Skåne. It is also important to realise, that transition to fossil free transport system is not just about the fuel substitution, preventative approach is as much important. Therefore a considerable part of the transition accounts for avoiding unnecessary transport and promoting alternatives to fuel driven vehicles, such as use of bicycles and walking.

There is a clear political goal in the region. Challenge is how to reach it balancing other trade-offs as well as accomplishing the goal without scarifying too much on the way.

1.3 Research objective and questions This research intends to study how to govern regional transition towards a fossil free transport system based on case studies of Region Skåne (Administrative Board of Skåne


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County) and Regional commuter traffic operator Skånetrafiken. The most important research part is transition governance, although technological, economical and political matters as well as the importance of information are also considered since those can not be left aside as one does not go without others.

The main research question is as follows:

How a transition to fossil free transport system in Skåne could be achieved?

To form the understanding how the transition could be accomplished, the following sub questions were raised:

– Who are the main stakeholders involved in Skåne and what should be their role within the transition?

– Which pre-conditions are in place and which ones should be created in Skåne to facilitate the transition?

– What additional national and/or international support may be needed to enhance the transition?

1.4 Research methods

1.4.1 Data collection and sources The data for the analysis was collected through the combination of several research methods, i.e. literature review and qualitative interviews.

1.4.1.1 Literature review Foremost literature sources were academic peer-reviewed papers plus national/regional government policies, plans, strategies and other material. Databases (the primary ones were LOVISA (the Lund University library catalogue) and ELIN (Lund University online database), citations of other articles and accessible online government publication archives were also used to obtain information.

The purpose of literature review was to find and adapt a theory and/or framework that would be suitable to govern the regional transition towards fossil free transport system.

From literary investigation the general background information regarding the transport sector and studied region was obtained, various innovation and system transition theories were studied aiming to define the theoretical framework. Analysis of literature sources and various additional documents was also helpful in identifying the relevant stakeholders.

Much of the literature review was used to identify strategies and visions supporting and driving the transition to fossil free transport system in Skåne County. In addition, a good foundation of the Transition Management theory was established to better understand how it could be incorporated within Skåne context. Literature review is presented in Chapter 2.

1.4.1.2 Interviews Following, the case of Skåne was explored by looking at ongoing initiatives within the regional boundaries. Skåne was chosen to be explored as a case study because of its front


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runner position the environmental field. According to Quist (2007), the stakeholders are especially important source of context-specific knowledge for generation of common future vision, learning, facilitation of social acceptance in the case of system transition. Based on that, conducted (structured and semi structured) qualitative interviews served several purposes: provision of general context to understand the current situation and future development trends of transport sector in Skåne, compilation of the specific background information to be able to comprehensively analyse the situation and triangulate the collected data to confirm the comments from other informants and supplement data sources obtained during literature review.

The interviewees were selected using the so called “snow-ball” method (O'Leary, 2005): first the respondents were identified through thesis supervisors; then these contact persons were asked to point out further relevant people to interview; in this way the sample was built up. A limitation of this method is that from the start it does not guarantee the representativeness of all stakeholder groups. Therefore the representativeness had to be controlled throughout data collection process deducting the relevant stakeholders from the context of issues identified.

A questionnaire (q.v. Appendix II) was developed for conducting the interviews. It was tailored for each interviewee according to the knowledge he was assumed to obtain due to the background. Figure 1-1 represents the questionnaire development process.

Figure 1-1 The questionnaire design process adapted from (Fox, 2008)

Initially individuals were contacted by e-mail to provide them with the background information about the thesis research and ask for a suitable time slot to meet them. Afterwards, the face-to-face interviews were conducted. The list of interview informants is given in the Appendix I. For follow up information some of the persons were contacted more than once.

1.4.2 Data analysis In order to explore the transition towards fossil free transport system in Skåne elements of various theoretical, analytical and designing approaches and techniques were studied (more about them in Chapter 2). The collected information (primary and secondary data) was compared and inconsistent data was followed up and re-checked for confirmation. Afterwards the findings were organized in accordance to the research objectives and questions.


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Literature analysis led to the choice of Transition Management (TM) framework as the tool for analyzing the current transition situation in Skåne (reasoning behind this choice is given in the Chapter 2). Accordingly Skåne was placed within the frame of TM by putting more emphasis on public transport while still taking a look at private (companies) and personal vehicle fleets. Furthermore, information collected during the interviews was summarized.

Subsequently, the pre-conditions for successful achievement of transition to fossil free transport system in Skåne together with the obstacles and possible ways to overcome them were identified in the course of analysis. In addition, the possible pathway to reach the set vision was described. A discussion on what a region itself can do (e.g. starting from combination of various information campaigns to raise the awareness of local residents to economic incentives and pilot projects) is given. Last, but not least it was examined what assistance and/or support from national or even international government is seen to be necessary for the achievement of complete transition including not only public, but also private (companies) as well as individual vehicle fleets.

1.5 Scope and limitations The geographical focus of this thesis is Skåne, the south most administrative county of Sweden. Considering that transport sector at regional level is highly influenced by national and international trends, a short overview of transport related policies and of the situation at the national and European levels was made in order to better understand the relationships between them. Both descriptive information as well as analytical discussion is given.

This research is particularly focused on land-based transport (excluding the railways as in Sweden 100% of railroad transport is run on electricity). The reason for this is that road transport represents a significant proportion of the total transport, and its share is increasing over the years (Chapman, 2007). Therefore air and sea transport will not be discussed in this report (what is still in line with the Region Skåne vision). Likewise, the transit traffic will not be included as it requires more that regional coordination alone. Hence, the research will focus mainly on the transportation within the region, putting more emphasis on public sector, while still briefly examining private (companies) and personal mobility.

The target audience for the thesis are people working with strategic environmental issues in municipal and regional authorities. This includes other organizations having a special interest in and/or working with the transport issues as well as active and interested citizens in Skåne County. The outcome of the research is also likely to be of use for other regions within Sweden, as well as on the European level.

The whole road transport sector was divided into three areas according to the domain of influence by regional government. It is estimated, that the highest potential for influence is in the public transport, while the lowest is for private mobility, where national influence is thought to be of core importance and need, likewise the private transport area can in a way be influenced by regional government, though more influence on it is likely to come from national level.

The author is aware of the fact that concrete strategic decisions are dependent on particular conditions and there is no “single bullet” solution for everyone, thus it was chosen to focus on a more general level of transition governance, while still presenting some examples of currently available and practised means, that could be explored and adapted for local needs by using the suggested Transition Management framework.


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Usually coal, oil and gas are called “fossil fuels” owning largely to their main origin. For road vehicles petrol, diesel and gas are the most common fossil fuels. In this research the fossil free fuel would be anything besides fore mentioned, e.g. biogas, bio-ethanol, electricity (assuming it is produced without using fossil fuels), etc., taking into account that it is regarded as more environmentally friendly than the fossil ones in terms of environmental impact and provision of fuel security.

Since the time of this research coincided with the summer holidays, not all intended stakeholders were available for consultation. Language barrier was another limitation in accessing and translating the relevant literature as well as conducting face-to-face interviews. Therefore it was not possible to undertake a full review of actions done in Skåne with regard to environmental improvement in transport sector. Moreover, it was difficult to obtain information related to transport sector per se, as most of the times it was integrated within the Climate and/or Energy questions. However, despite of this, the best effort has been made to translate and interpret the obtained information as accurately as the given time frame allowed for. The examples used in this report are thus regarded as adequate and sufficient case studies.

In addition, due to time and scope limitation social implications and technological feasibility were not studied in a deep manner, though they were taken into account in order to have a more realistic and practical approach.

The inventory of activities and projects related to transport has been performed with the geographical area of Skåne County. The goal was to collect material from different stakeholders, including Region Skåne, regional public transport provider Skånetrafiken, energy producers (E.ON) and area experts (e.g. Bio-gas expert). Despite the fact that transition to fossil free transport is a very hot topic in the region, there is relatively little documented information thus the overview of the situation based on stakeholders view and opinions had to be trusted; trying to clarify the objective part, even though it was not always possible to fully confirm it by written sources.

1.6 Thesis outline The structure of the thesis is presented in the table below.

Table 1-1 Thesis outline

Chapter Content 1 Background information is presented, the overall objective and raised research questions are

discusses together with the scope, limitations and methodological approach. 2 Outlines findings from the literature review and presents the theoretical framework. 3 Gives a brief insight into the current situation in EU and Sweden with regard to transport. 4 Case studies based on Region Skåne and Skånetrafiken are described. 5 Provides data analysis. 6 Gives the discussion of the findings. 7 Concluding remarks are given.


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2 Theoretical framework In this chapter theoretical background for the research is outlined.

2.1 Background In general terms transition can be described as a structural transformation or as a “long-term process of change during which the society or a subsystem of society fundamentally changes” (Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006). Even though transition can not be directly controlled, it still can be influenced and shaped in a preferred direction through various types of steering, adjustment and coordination means to ensure that each action along the way contributes to the desired end. Since transition is a dynamic, non linear process, where slow change is followed by a fast one, and vice versa afterwards, it does require appropriate supervision. (Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006)

Satisfying the goal to reach fossil-free transport system can look like a daunting task for the region. A solid methodological framework could act as a guideline to evaluate whether the efforts are progressing into the right direction. According to Loorbach & Rotmans (2006) it is important to bear in mind, that the path to fossil-free transport system can not be accomplished all at once and in a short time frame, as well as that it is essential to be aware of the involvement of many steps and transitions along the way that would eventually lead to a desired long term change.

There are several types of transition theories and approaches which are closely related. Below the concise description of the most common ones is given.

2.1.1 Fore- and backcasting In brief processes of back- and fore-casting can be described as “setting of short-term goals based on long-term goals and the reflection on future developments through the use of scenarios” (Loorbach, 2007). In principle, both approaches are used for the creation of future scenarios. Present situation is the starting point for the forecasting scenarios, while for backcasting scenarios future target/vision is the starting point (van Notten, Rotmans, van Asselt, & Rothman, 2003). Backcasting is seen as an alternative to the more traditional forecasting approach (Anderson, 2001). “Backcasting is a process whereby the construction of a future vision or normative scenario is followed by looking back in time and creating a strategy or action plan for proceeding from the present towards that desired future” (Quist & Vergragt, 2004), the same, just vice versa is applicable for the forecasting. As the common data collection for the fore- and backcasting scenarios is done through an interactive participatory process including stakeholders and experts (Partidario & Vergragt, 2002; Quist, 2007), those are not the intended frameworks to use for the current research.


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2.1.2 Transition theory Two main analytical concepts comprise transition theory, namely multi-phase and multi-level (q.v. Chapter 2.2). Both of them are closely linked and are helpful when analysing the dynamics of transitions (Loorbach, 2007). Though it is good when used as means for transition analysis and deeper understanding of how transitions come about, alone it is not enough for understanding how to manage them, thus it was not studied in a deeper manner.

2.1.3 Systems theory/thinking According to Loorbach (2007) “‘Systems theory’ and ‘systems thinking’ are very general terms and refer to a universal language to address complex patterns of interaction between different components.” In general, they connect ‘systems’ with ‘complexity’ and introduce such concepts as generic patterns and feedback to be able to deal with complications arising within systems. Basically, ‘Systems thinking’ sees complexity as a specific feature of a system. Systems’ thinking is used as a helpful analytical approach in various fields (e.g. ecology, organizational sciences, sociology, and economics). Lately this approach was introduced into the governance science throughout the transition management concept (Loorbach, 2007). Thus it would be not cautious to use it as a stand alone approach for the analysis.

2.1.4 Top-down, bottom-up approaches

Figure 2-1 Top-down and bottom-up views Source: http://jurmo.us/log/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/topdownbottomup.jpg

The best explanation of top-down and bottom-up ways of decision making could be made through comparative picture (q.v. figure above). Though approaches are complete opposites of each other, normally they are to come together. In principal top-down is driven from the highest power point, whereas bottom-up is grassroots driven. Classical way of top-down is hierarchical governmental steering, when the decisions are “landed” to the society, which is not seen as an effective and/or practical management mechanism when it comes to sustainability management (Loorbach, 2007). While top-down management, still has a function in our society, the complex issues people are dealing with requires additional approaches and strategies. As main changes in society originate in part due to the interference


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between various levels neither top-down, nor bottom-up alone, but a combination of these is necessary. (Loorbach, 2007)

According to Loorbach (2007), “transition management is a new governance concept that combines strengths of top-down and bottom-up approaches without falling into the pitfalls of becoming either too hierarchical and rigid or too free-floating”.

2.2 Transition management model For this thesis the Transition management (TM) framework, developed by Dutch researches and widely used in the Netherlands as a governance concept since 2001, was chosen, as it offers a useful structure explaining how to deal with the societal change (Loorbach, 2007; Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006; Rotmans & Loorbach, 2009; Voß, Smith, & Grin, 2009). TM is a way to deliberately guide a transformation so that actors involved are aware of their actions and how it will add up to the whole process (Rotmans, et al., 2000).

Foremost elements of TM are (Kemp & Loorbach, 2006; Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Loorbach, 2007; Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006):

Systems-thinking in terms of more than one domain (multi-domain), different phases and different scale levels (multi-level);

Flexible, long-term visions (at least 25 years) as a framework for shaping short-term agendas and actions;

Back- and forecasting: the setting of short-term and mid-term goals based on long-term sustainability visions;

A focus on learning and the use of a special learning philosophy of learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning;

An orientation towards transition and system innovation;

Combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches;

Interaction and communication between various stakeholders.

Literature about TM (Grin, et al., 2010; Kemp & Loorbach, 2006; Kemp, et al., 2007; Kemp, Parto, & Gibson, 2005; Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Loorbach, 2007, 2010; Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006; Rotmans, Kemp, & Van Asselt, 2001; Rotmans & Loorbach, 2009; Sondeijker, 2009; Voß, et al., 2009) suggests that this concept combines long term visions with short term goals, top-down and bottom-up approaches, guidance and uncertainty, design and dynamics, as well as private interest and common good. Accordingly TM framework combines strengths of the above mentioned theories, and by taking the best out of them, evading or acknowledging the drawbacks it is thought by the author of this thesis to be the best currently available model for the coordination of complicated transition process. More over, the TM model is appropriate for this research because the success of transition to fossil-free transport system needs to be based on structural systemic changes across different fields, such as technological, institutional, behavioural and economical.

The TM framework comprises two concepts coming from transition theory (Figure 2-2): the multi-phase and multi-level (Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006; Sondeijker, 2009). The first one indicates that transition is a non-linear process, which (with the intention to shift from one equilibrium to another) undergoes four stages:

1. A pre-development phase;


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2. A take-off phase;

3. An acceleration phase;

4. A stabilization phase.

In the first stage there is little visible change seen in the system level, nevertheless at the individual level a lot of innovations and experimentation occur. In the second stage various innovations help to start the process of change in the system level. In the third stage the structural change becomes visible; the most change happens at this phase and with the highest speed through the accumulation and interaction of economic, social, cultural, ecological, etc. changes. Collective learning process also takes place in this stage. In the last stage the speed of change is decreasing and a new equilibrium is reached. (Kemp & Loorbach, 2006; Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006; Rotmans, et al., 2001)

Figure 2-2 Transition management model adapted from (Sondeijker, 2009)

While the concept of multi-level transition explains the relation between niches, regimes and the socio-technical landscape, in other words it divides transition among three levels: micro-, meso- and macro-. The micro-(niche)-level represents local practices, actions taken by individuals. The meso-(regime)-level stands for the dominant practises, strategies and policies created by various companies, networks, organizations and institutions which are resulting from social rules, norms, and belief systems which are guiding the decision making process as well as giving the stability. While the macro-(landscape)-level represents society as a whole, e.g. one country, nation or even continent, therefore the change at this point is very slow. Niches are embedded within regimes and regimes within landscapes. (Geels, 2002; Geels & Kemp, 2007; Kemp & Loorbach, 2006; Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006; Rotmans, et al., 2001)

According to Kemp & Rotmans (2004) “The distinction between niches, regimes and landscape helps to understand processes of structural change that are seen as the outcome of the interaction of multi-level processes. A common mechanism is landscape factors that put pressure on a regime of production, whose practices and technologies are challenged by new solutions pioneered in niches, with regime actors initially fighting and


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resisting alternative solutions focusing their attention and money on improving existing technologies, but over time changing course by investing in radical solutions.”

The coordination of transition can be achieved by (directly or indirectly) using markets, planning and institutions separately or (best) in various combinations. The key of the transition management is the “anticipation and adaptation, starting from a macro-vision on sustainability, building upon bottom-up (micro) initiatives, while in the meantime influencing the meso-regime” (Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006).

2.2.1 Circular elements of Transition Management Transition management is not a step plan. It is an iterative and cyclical form of multi level governance which includes the following activities (Figure 2-3) on different levels (Grin, et al., 2010; Kemp, et al., 2007):

Strategic level: visioning, strategic discussions leading to formulation of long term goals;

Tactical level: process of networking, negotiating and building of agendas and coalitions;

Operational level: process of experimenting and implementation;

Reflexive level: monitoring, evaluating and learning.

The core elements in the cycle of transition management are: anticipation, learning and adaptation. Each cycle of TM includes four main activities: establishment and development of the transition arena for the specific subject matter (e.g. mobility); developing long-term visions and objectives leading to common transition agenda; then transition projects and experiments take place; followed by monitoring and evaluation of the transition progression. (Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Loorbach, 2007)

Figure 2-3 Multilevel approach to transition management adapted from (Grin, et al., 2010; Kemp, Loorbach, & Rotmans, 2007)

Figure 2-4 The cycle of transition management (Loorbach, 2007)


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The TM cycle (Figure 2-4) starts with recognition and structuring of the problem leading to the long-term vision(s) as the way out of it. The integrated vision should be developed in collaboration with as many affected and interested stakeholders as possible, in the so called “transition arena”. It is followed by short-term programmes and try-out, pilot projects with intention to choose the best available solution for the identified problematic issue. For this to happen the constant monitoring and evaluation of actions, namely programmes, experiments and the transition process is necessary. In this way the learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning approach is taken, putting more emphasis on the learning and adjusting to new circumstances instead of controlling and trying to stick to initial plan neglecting the changing conditions. In this way choices are made “along the way” on the basis of learning experience. Transition arena should involve various stakeholders, including people from business, government, academia and civil society and would play the key role in identifying possible transition paths and experiments to take place, as well as develop a transition community. (Kemp & Martens, 2007)

The baseline of the transition management is system improvement and system innovation, in other words the two-sided orientation. TM is a process-oriented and goal-seeking way of governance. Instead of usual planning and controlling it puts emphasis on nurturing and growing. The general time horizon of transition is 25-50 years. It is important to mention, that throughout TM transition path is not chosen rather it is created during the way. (Voß, et al., 2009)

2.2.2 Role of government Very often there is more than one actor playing a role in transition management. It is quite common that one actor is strong and leading, while others are weaker hence following and supporting the process. It is rear that one single actor is managing the transition on its own, even though most of the times social actors are waiting for the government to take the lead and do the guiding part. For that reason an important task for the government is to assist in setting-up the vision, inspire, motivate and mobilize various actors for the action. Governments’ role in the transition management is among the leading one, besides coordination it could/should ensure the creation of real market with the help of new rules and/or laws. (Rotmans, et al., 2001)

Twofold support from government is necessary for the transition to take place: namely procedural and financial (sometimes either of the two can work well alone); nonetheless the role of government varies in different transition stages. For instance, there is a huge necessity for visioning and experimentation in the pre-development stage, though it should not be terminated within this one rather continue in the following phases as well. In the take-off stage mobilization of other actors is crucial. While in the acceleration stage there is a special need for the control of side effects when technologies are applied on a large scale basis not forgetting the stimulation of learning process with regard to possible solutions of the critical issue. Even though it is not an easy task, as taxes are not appreciated by anyone who is obliged to pay them, still throughout the whole transition process it is important to have the external costs of technologies (both old and new ones) revealed in prices. On way out of this could be the introduction of some charges as a “politically-accepted transition endeavour” with the revenues used for the funding of alternative developments. (Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Rotmans, et al., 2001)


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Figure 2-5 Regular policy versus transition management process (Loorbach, 2007)

Schematic outlook of the transition management (forward and backward reasoning) is shown in the Figure 2-5. The main distinction between regular policy and transition management processes is that the first one is based on a linear type of acting while the latter has the cyclical approach. TM aims include not only the content but also the process goal, i.e. it is oriented into reaching the structural change in a stepwise mode and is aiming at both the system improvement and system innovation. Moreover, TM involves the back-casting process, in this context it means looking backward from the final vision to develop pathways, create a strategy or action plan how to get there, how to proceed towards the desired future from the present situation. (Kemp & Rotmans, 2004; Loorbach, 2007)


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3 Factual Background: Transport in European Union and Sweden

The aim of this chapter is to give some brief insight into the transport in EU and Sweden, including drivers and constrains leading to the call for transition to fossil free transport system.

3.1 EU In EU road transportation is responsible for 18% of all GHG emissions (Figure 3-1). On the other hand it generates 10% of EU’s wealth in terms of GDP and provides more than ten million jobs. (European Commision, 2003, 2010)

Figure 3-1 Share of GHG emissions in the EU-27, by main activity (Larsson & Ihren, May 2010)

By road goes 44% of the EU goods; even more domination is seen in passenger transport (largely car journeys) which accounts for even 812% of all transport. Due to its incredible growth, transport sector is becoming a victim of its own success. The increasing mobility is exposed to congestion resulting in delays and pollution. The use of alternative fuels, better fuel efficiency is among the measures that the EU is striving for. There is an urgent need for change, and the EU transport policy is designed to make it happen with intention to promote safe, clean and efficient transportation in Europe. “The European Commission is working towards a form of mobility that is sustainable, energy-efficient and respectful of the environment” (European Commision, 2003, 2010). Moreover, the EU biofuels strategy has a threefold purpose: to further promote biofuels in the EU and developing countries, to prepare for large scale use of biofuels and to strengthen the cooperation with developing countries with regard to sustainable production of biofuels (European Commision, 2006). For 2020, the EU’s goal is

2 100% = road + air + rail.


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that each member country should have at least 10% renewable fuels for road transport. (Olsson, 2010)

3.2 Sweden Within the EU Sweden is recognized as consistently being in the forefront when it comes to environmental issues and environmental initiatives. The country is considered to be a leader when it comes to supporting efforts to guarantee the protection of the environment within and across its boarders. Efforts to pursue sustainable development are continuously supported by the Swedish government through funding and support for the research in relevant areas.

Already in 1998 in its transport policy decisions Swedish parliament has indicated that the overall objective is “to ensure an economically efficient and sustainable provision of transport for citizens and businesses throughout the country” (Transport policy for sustainable development. Prop. 1997/98: 56 cited in Region Skåne's Climate Committee, March 2009).

Sweden has set ambitious goals in the form of 16 environmental quality objectives (q.v. Appendix IV) to preserve its environment for future generations. Adopted by Swedish Parliament (already in 1999) objectives are aiming to solve Sweden’s environmental problems by 2020 (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2009). Transport together with energy consumption and flows of various products are seen as the major causes of today’s environmental problems. In Sweden nearly one third of GHG emissions comes from transport sector alone (it was accountable for 31% of GHG emissions in 2006). (Region Skåne's Climate Committee, March 2009)

In December 2005 the Swedish government appointed the so called “Oil Commission” to prepare a programme for tackling environmental problems by reducing country’s dependence on oil. Phasing out oil was focused on due to several reasons including the fluctuating price of oil which has a negative affect on the economy, the great potential of locally available alternative materials for substituting oil as well as extensive environmental impact that burning fossil fuels has to the climate change. An additional purpose of the “Oil Commission” was to draw a pathway to reach the goal of becoming a fossil-fuel free Country by 2030. The outcome of the Commission’s work related to the transport sector suggests the reduction of petrol and diesel use by 40-50% by 2020 using a combination of more efficient vehicles and fuel substitution. (Commission on Oil Independence, 2006)

Moreover, in one paragraph of the Commission’s report it is stated that “We are technology optimists and want Sweden to be at the forefront in the gradual use of new, resource-efficient, renewable technology hybrid vehicles, <…> fuel cell vehicles, new biofuels, and energy-saving IT solutions and also technology we cannot know anything about yet or can just divine. We prepare for this type of development in our proposals by massive support to research, development and commercialisation of new technology” (Commission on Oil Independence, 2006). This corresponds well with the Minister for the Environment Andreas Carlgren statement that “targets are being set whereby, by 2030, Sweden should have a fleet of vehicles that is independent of fossil fuels, and Swedish industry will be world-leading in the transition, through the development of hybrid vehicles, electric cars, biofuels and other innovations” (Ministry of the Environment, 2009). This in principal should give a clear view on the position of Swedish government with regard to the transition to fossil-free/more environmentally sound transport system as well as point out the ambitious and leading role that Sweden is trying to take in tackling the environmental problems. The current Alliance government has set a goal for Sweden's vehicle fleet to be independent of fossil fuel in 2030, however has not defined what "fossil-independent" means. (Olsson, 2010)


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Several economic measures have been introduced in order to accelerate and stimulate the transition to a more environmentally friendly car fleet. Sweden uses tax breaks and other financial incentives, such as exemption from tolls and parking fees, to encourage citizens to drive cars that use renewable fuels; though the main tools are still carbon taxes and emission trading. (Government Offices of Sweden, 2009b)

A way of preparing public to the adaptation to the upcoming changes started with the rebate scheme for purchasing a “green car” which was in force from 1 April 2007 until 31 December 2009. It offered a rebate to private individuals with the size of 10 000 SEK (which corresponds to around 1110 €) when buying a new “green” car. At present the rebate scheme is replaced by a long term (5 years) tax exemption, which is applicable not only to the private individual but also includes the cars purchased by business. The amendment entered into force from 1 January 2010 and is also applicable to the cars taken into service from 1 July 2009 onwards. (Government Offices of Sweden, 2009a, 2009b; Ministry of the Environment, 2007) Green car support schemes are also used on the local level, for instance providing free parking for green vehicles in cities.

In line with the governmental actions a definition of green car was established by Swedish Road administration. The green cars are considered to be the (Ministry of the Environment, 2007):

Conventional cars: Petrol and diesel cars with carbon dioxide emissions that do not exceed 120 grams/km.

Alternative fuel cars: Cars that can run on fuels other than petrol or diesel and with fuel consumption that does not exceed 0.92 litre petrol/10 km, 0.84 litre diesel/10 km or 0.97 cubic metre gas/10 km.

Electric cars: A passenger car meeting environmental class Mk EL standards and with electric energy consumption that does not exceed 3.7 kilowatt hours/10 km.


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4 Case study background: Skåne - Current situation Case study based on Region Skåne and Skånetrafiken is described in this chapter

4.1 General information

Figure 4-1 The Skåne county (adapted from Swedish National Atlas)

Skåne is the south most administrative county of Sweden. It is divided into 33 municipalities (Figure 3-1). Even though it covers only about 3% (11 007 km2) of Sweden’s area, Skåne is home to the approximately 13% (1 182 217 (2007)) of inhabitants in Sweden. (National Encyclopaedia, 2010; Region Skåne, 2010b) The area is densely populated, has a dense road network, and is considered to be the largest traffic hub in Scandinavia. It is also known as place housing large universities (e.g. Lund University) and innovation centers (E.g. Ideon, The European Spallation Source is about to be built). In addition, a high share of economy in Skåne is built on agriculture. (Venuppropet, 2010)

4.2 Region Skåne Skåne is a united county with Region Skåne (Administrative Board of Skåne county3) acting as its coordinator in a number of important regional matters. With its 34,000 employees Region Skåne is one of the largest employers in the county. The competences of Region Skåne include: health and medical services; regional growth and development; public transport; culture; interregional and cross-border cooperation. (Region Skåne, 2009; A.Åkesson, personal

3 The function of the County Administrative Board is to be a representative of the state in county, and serve as a link

between the inhabitants, the municipal authorities, the Central Government, the Swedish Parliament and the central state authorities.


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communication, July 16, 2010) In addition, Region Skåne is responsible for the County Plan for regional transport infrastructure, which is an important task with regard to transition to fossil-free transport system. (Region Skåne's Climate Committee, 2009a)

Skåne County is somewhat unique when compared to other regions because a lot of local governance levels are concentrated in the hands of Region Skåne, as opposed to Länsstyrelsen as in other regions. Only one area of governance relevant to this research is largely in the hands of Länsstyrelsen in Skånes Län. That is environmental monitoring.

The work on improving regions climate requires contributions from the society, businesses and individuals. Region Skåne collaborates with a number of operators and participates in regional, national and international networks in the hope of collectively achieving a sustainable society. (A.Åkesson, personal communication, July 16, 2010)

Environmental work in southern Sweden is regarded as being efficient and meritorious. Some balanced priorities and boundaries are made as everything can not happen simultaneously, and all is not equally important or rewarding. It is also strategically prudent to choose investments that unite different purposes and favour many goals simultaneously. Based on this, following six strategic areas were selected to focus on during the period of 2009-2020: Transport, Biogas, Energy, Agriculture and forestry, spatial planning and climate adaptation. For this report the focus on Transport area is the most interesting and relevant. (Region Skåne's Climate Committee, 2009a; Region Skåne, 2010a)

4.2.1 Transport Transport has been identified as a strategic priority area in Region Skåne due to several reasons. First of all, transport has a major impact on the environment and climate and a high proportion of GHGs in Skåne come from transport. Secondly, sustainable mobility is the key factor to enhance the region's growth and attractiveness. What is more, sustainable transport can help to reduce medical costs and improved public health. In 2006, 34 % of Skåne’s GHG emissions came from this sector; and last but not least the fact that sustainable transport has been identified as a priority area within the EU, and at the national level.

Moreover, about 94 % of transport in Skåne is currently dependent on fossil fuels (Olsson, 8 June 2010), and this needs to be changed urgently resulting in a significant reduction of GHG emissions. Potential for alternative solutions does exist in the region, but development needs to be accelerated by the use of national, regional and local economic and other instruments. For example, most of the organizations, municipalities and companies focus on accessibility rather than the movement to reduce the transport process. Investments in infrastructure, placement of homes and businesses near public transport and measures to facilitate behavioural changes are needed. It is also necessary to develop various economic instruments, such as changes in carbon tax, kilometer tax for heavy traffic and congestion taxes. (Region Skåne's Climate Committee, 2009a, 2009b; Region Skåne, 2010a)

The ambition of Region Skåne is to reduce its emissions of GHG and to become climate neutral. Under such approach, namely fuel strategy, which is addressed to all administrations of Region Skåne as well as activities financed by it, all vehicles used by Region Skåne’s administration should run on renewable fuels in 2020. In addition, regional council has decided that from 2009 only green cars will be purchased by Region Skåne for its car fleet, thus pursuing the development. In its fuel strategy Region Skåne goes one step further than the national targets in this area, which state that Sweden should have a vehicle fleet that is independent from fossil fuels in 2030. (Region Skåne, 2010a)


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In Region Skåne the proportion of renewable fuels for vehicles currently is 24%, of which biogas accounts for 5% (Region Skåne, 2009b). In order to achieve the target of 100% renewable fuels, interim targets were set: 50% by 2012 and 75% by 2016. Region Skåne strongly favours the use of locally produced biogas; although priority may be given to other fuels, such as bio-diesel/rape methyl ester (RME), produced within region; as the mentioned fuels are not only more attractive form the environmental point of view, but also are seen as possibility to provide local employment and supply security. (Region Skåne, 2009)

Among transport related activities of Region Skåne are deliveries of goods, transport of patients (ambulances), business trips using either own or leased/rental cars. Then there are also journeys to and from work by the staff. The latter is not addressed by the fuel strategy.

So far the political management Region Skåne has taken several important decisions entailing less impact on the climate, such as(Region Skåne, 2009):

Guidelines for an increased proportion of green cars in 2005; A climate investment programme (KLIMP) in 2006 and 2008; Fossil free fuels at Skånetrafiken 2007; Environmental programme 2006–2012; Guidelines for meetings and travel 2008.

4.2.2 Public transport: Skånetrafiken Regional commuter traffic operator Skånetrafiken is part of a regional public body called Region Skåne. The duties of Skånetrafiken include planning, developing and promoting public traffic; while buses and some 400 vehicle fleet (e.g. small busses serving for the transportation of elderly and sick people) are owned by many entrepreneurs, Skånetrafiken directly owns trains, several trolleybuses. Skånetrafiken's activities are governed, developed and co-ordinated by the Board of Public Transport. (K.Christensson, personal communication, July 8, 2010)

In October 2007 the Board of Public Transport has decided to gradually phase out fossil fuels by setting the following goals (K.Christensson, personal communication, July 8, 2010; G. Ahlberg, personal communication, August 11, 2010):

all city busses should run of fossil-free fuel by 2015; all regional busses should run on fossil-free fuel by 2018; all vehicles should be fossil-free fuelled by 2020.

Progress so far (K.Christensson, personal communication, July 8, 2010; G.Ahlberg, personal communication, August 11, 2010):

All trains are driven by renewable hydro or wind power, More than 90% of city busses are fuelled with so called “vehicle gas4”, while in the

cities of Eslöv and Kristianstad busses are 100% biogas driven; 10% of regional busses are driven by “vehicle gas”.

Transition bottlenecks (K.Christensson, personal communication, July 8, 2010; G.Ahlberg, personal communication, August 11, 2010):

Fuel supply (refilling stations vs. filling in bus depot); Vehicle supply;

4 The mix of natural and biogas.


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Infrastructure (gas grid, fuelling stations); Economic situation (market development); Legal boundaries (public procurement); Cooperation (“everyone waiting for others to start”).

According to K.Christensson (personal communication, July 8, 2010) biogas was chosen as a focal fuel due to evident advantages. First of all, it is perceived as a green fuel. Secondly, fuel prices are affordable; moreover the technology is already there - biogas busses that run on gas are already on the market for quite some time. Last, but not least, the supply of refuse, from which biogas is produced in Skåne, is seen as a resource that will never run out. Apparently biogas has really good development opportunities in Skåne, therefore it is the fuel Skånetrafiken is primarily aiming at. Moreover the initial focus on gas driven busses started already in 1992 by trying to convert busses run by diesel to gas driven ones.

The age limit for busses is about 10 years, after that they are believed to be worn out. Consequently to support the transition to fossil-free fuelled vehicles in new procurements Skånetrafiken puts the precondition that new busses should be gas driven. Skånetrafiken is open to technological innovation and in case the price would be affordable and the vehicles would be available it would consider using busses driven by other fossil free fuels (e.g. hydrogen, EV). At the moment bio gas driven busses is the best ready available option to aim for. Moreover the potential for local biogas supply (see section 4.3) is tremendous and could serve not only public transport sector but at least a part of private fleet as well. (K.Christensson, personal communication, July 8, 2010; G.Ahlberg, personal communication, August 11, 2010)

Skånetrafiken’s environmental goal - Public transport free of fossil fuels - contributes to the realisation of Region Skåne’s fuel strategy. The aim is to have town buses which do not run on fossil fuels in 2015, regional buses in 2018 and light vehicles in 2020. The fact that Skånetrafiken use more biogas increases the demand, which is necessary in order to extend production and the number of filling stations. Moreover, Skånetrafiken is intensively working to encourage more people to use public transport, as the more people use it, the greater is the gain for the environment. So far a target has been set to increase the number of passengers by 3% per annum; 2007 was the 8th year in a row that this target has been accomplished. (Ahlberg, 2010)

4.3 Biogas in Skåne The conditions for production of biogas are unusually good in Skåne, but the lack of distribution network is a major restriction for the further development. The potential of biogas is strongly dependent on the price variations (against the fossil fuels) and the expansion of the distribution networks. The calculated biogas energy potential for Skåne taking into account agricultural waste and slaughter house residues (not including forest residues) is about 4 TWh/year. In addition to environmental benefits, further development of biogas is seen as a good opportunity for Skåne’s growth in addition to export of knowledge and technologies. (Kristianstad kommun, 2009)

Skåne is already ahead in terms of using biogas. As the evidence, Skåne has recently been appointed by the government as a pilot county for biogas - which will mean further investment. Being a Pilot County means leveraging the shift to a green economy and involves both the further development and the right to guide and assist other counties, which are less advanced in the transition. (A.Åkesson, personal communication, July 16, 2010).


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Some of the success factors are: The county is considered to have especially good conditions for biogas production; Sufficient amount of successful research conducted in this area; Strong players (such as large energy producer E. ON) support the development.

4.4 Facts: bio-gas in the city of Malmö The city of Malmö and energy provider E.ON has launched a biogas cooperation in Malmö to gradually replace fossil based natural gas with renewable biogas fuel and hydrogen in the longer term. The new biogas plant in Malmö is expected to deliver more than 20 GWh of biogas per year, representing 2 million liters of gasoline. It corresponds to 13 000 – 14 000 of private cars’ needs per year5, what is more than enough to fuel entire vehicle fleet of Region Skåne.

Biogas will be fed into the natural gas network in Malmö to fuel city busses and cars. Among other things it is planned to build one of the world's largest biogas production facilities in the port of Malmö. Besides, City of Malmö has a green car strategy, stating that at the end of 2015 the entire light vehicle fleet of the City of Malmö should be environmentally friendly; while 75% of them should be powered by biogas, hydrogen, electricity or use hybrid engine. (Malmö stad, 2009; R.Zinkernagel, personal communication, June 03, 2010)

4.5 Facts: Växjö One of the local frontrunners, the City of Växjö politicians, already in 1996, unanimously decided to become a fossil fuel free city. Among other areas the City of Växjö strives to shift to a fossil fuel free transport system by 2030. To be able to fulfil the made commitment several environmentally focused transport projects are running and currently available alternative vehicle fuels explored by the City of Växjö are ethanol, DME6 and biogas. Following are some of the so far accomplished actions within transport sector (Växjö kommun, 2007):

1997 Beginning of the municipal efforts to produce an alternative to diesel (bio-DME).

1999 First filling station for ethanol is built.

2002 Continuous work in establishment of cycle paths in combination with information encouraging more citizens to use bikes instead of cars.

2002 Free parking for environmentally adapted cars.

2002 – 2004 Municipal Mobility Office intensively works with the change of attitude and behaviour among the inhabitants of the City of Växjö when it comes to travelling by making public transport more attractive and holding campaigns that promote use of bicycles by showing the financial and health advantages of doing so.

2002 – 2005 Municipal subsidies are given for the purchase of environmentally adapted cars.

5 Average personal car in Sweden drives 15 000 km/year, that is c.a. 1 500 litres/year.

6 DME means Di-Methyl Ether; it is a gas that can be used as a fuel in adapted diesel motors.


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2004 Växjö Taxi use positioning system for more efficient transportation. Total driving distance is reduced by 20 %.

2007 The first filling station in Växjö for biogas is built. The biogas is produced at the municipal sewage treatment plant.

2009 The DME fleet is tested on a small scale.

Even though during the period between 1993 and 2005 the emissions per inhabitant in the transport sector increased by 19%, good effects of the taken actions (q.v. above), among other things, are observed. Additional improvement comes from increased blending of biofuels into diesel and petrol. (Växjö kommun, 2007)

4.6 Facts: Kristianstad municipality The executive committee of Kristianstad Municipality in 1999 unanimously declared goal to become a fossil fuel free municipality. The work in Kristianstad is focused on: reduction of petrol and diesel use by phasing in such renewable fuels as biogas, ethanol and RME; reduction of total vehicle mileage and emissions of air pollutants by improving operation and behavioural change. During the period between 2001 and 2006 the share of renewable fuels in municipality has increased from 0,56% to 3,72%. This can be one of the indicators of successful implementation of actions, which are presented below. (Kristianstad kommun, 2009)

Their undertaken actions and achievements by now are as follows (Kristianstad kommun, 2003, 2007):

Locally produced biogas was upgraded and from November 1999 is used as a fuel for vehicles.

All city busses run on biogas;

Car pools with biogas fuelled vehicles are available for city hall employees.

Municipality encourages local residents to purchase biogas driven vehicles by offering some free parking places and supplementary subsidies, covering 50% of the additional costs when buying biogas fuelled cars.

In June 2007 around 230 biogas fuelled vehicles were running in Kristianstad.

Figure 4-2 The distribution of fuel in Kristianstad in 2006 Adapted from (Kristianstad kommun, 2009)


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The illustrating examples show that there is a considerable engagement in the Region leading to not only discussions, but substantial actions as well. This can be easily supported by the fact that currently there are a number of public filling stations for vehicle gas and biogas in eleven out of thirty-three municipalities in Skåne County. The next stage of development involves the construction of another four public filling stations, which are planned to be located in Svalöv, Hörby, Tomelilla and Osby. (Region Skåne's Climate Committee, 2009b)

4.7 Constraints to the transition to fossil free transport system According to Olsson (2010), in order to achieve the goal of fossil-free transportation in Skåne, there are three main barriers to overcome – Technological, Economic and Human.

The technology used must be proven and it must be made available; e.g. For electric cars some development of the cars and especially batteries is still necessary; For biogas infrastructure development is an issue: more filling stations in accessible locations are needed and this should go simultaneously with increasing the number of gas fuelled vehicles on the market and the development of biogas production.

The introduction and the growth of new technologies needs economic development tool that provides the opportunity to take off. For instance, while running on gas is more or less 20% cheaper than running on petrol and running on electricity could cost 2 SEK (~0,22 €) per km that is up to 20 times less than using conventional fuels. Moreover cars that can run on electricity are more expensive in purchase and gas driven vehicles need a well-developed infrastructure, which must be subsidized in order to achieve the fossil-free transport system. Still, a lot can be done locally/regionally to help improve the economic calculations for the gas and electric cars, including free parking, a clever extension of the infrastructure for refuelling and recharging, and by running pilot projects that drive the market.

Perhaps one of the biggest obstacles to the transition to fossil free transport is the natural reluctance of people to try something new. With the introduction of new technology, communication and dissemination of knowledge for public is essential in order to achieve the acceptance. For example the gas cars can be seen as a bit awkward or even unsafe at the first time, yet this can be overcome by proper communication. In addition, for both gas and electricity as power, many users’ perceptions of how their transportation needs are, and how far they travel each day needs to be proven, as when one examines how it looks in reality their driving pattern can be completely different from the ones they’ve thought to be. For instance, the demonstration of electric cars carried out by E. ON and some other operators have shown that it is not until people have tried to run on rechargeable power they can say for sure if they preferred a pure electric car, without any internal combustion engine as backup or if they need a plug-in hybrid, which has an internal combustion engine that can go in and run the car on a back-up fuel when the battery is empty.

In order to overcome the above stated barriers collaboration of stakeholders and interested parties is necessary.

4.8 Transition Potential Skåne County has the best conditions for the transition to fossil-free transport system: Raw materials, Infrastructural prerequisites, Pioneering position in alternative fuels (namely biogas), Enthusiastic players, Interested politicians and A "significant" market (Olsson, 2010):

Raw materials: There is a lot of agriculture that may contribute to the production of biogas, which is considered to be a fossil free fuel. Residues from biogas production can be used further as fertilizer in agriculture;


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Infrastructural prerequisites: Skåne County is relatively densely populated and there are clear commuting routes, which means that a few biogas filling stations and commuter parking lots with charging option could have very many users and thus quickly could be very useful;

Pioneering position: Region Skåne has already gone before the rest of Sweden in the use of biogas and there are good opportunities to build on that to make all of Skåne's transport fossil-free;

Enthusiastic players: There is already a large number of environmental stakeholders involved in southern Sweden, and this was demonstrated, inter alia, when the biogas has penetrated in Skåne to a greater extent than in the rest of Sweden;

Interested politicians: When talking to politicians it is simple to notice that there is a considerable interest in sustainable transport; and the fact is that politicians in Region Skåne are not only ready to go, but are already going ahead of the rest of Sweden;

A "significant" market: 1.2 million people in southern Sweden is a large market on a relatively small area; both the electric and gas vehicles, have a great advantage to have access to this market.

According to Olsson (2010) and A.Åkesson (personal communication, July 16, 2010) given the great potential and commitment that exists in Skåne, County can go before the rest of Sweden and the rest of the world in the fossil-free transport. This would not only lead to the environmental improvement but also would let to prepare for the anticipated shortage of fossil fuels. In addition, Bengt E.Svensson (personal communication, July 05, 2010) claims that Skåne is a good test area for the transition to fossil-free transport system, because of its size and dense population distribution.


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5 Analysis Data analysis is presented in this chapter.

5.1 Interview results One of utmost apparent observations from interviews is that all of the informants had a very similar view on what fossil free fuels are. Most of them saw biogas and electric vehicles as a very promising combination for the future transport system, as the development and application of biogas is already in progress and the progress within electric vehicles seems promising to them. Few of them mentioned rapeseed methyl ester (RME), so called bio diesel as an alternative fuel option, due to the fact, that some of it is being produced on a local basis. Some saw hydrogen fuel as a possible solution, though only in a very far future, counting not less than 20-30 years ahead, as so far the technology is as a minimum not market ready.

Another matter emphasised by informants was the common understanding what is about to come together with transition. Most of them agreed that it is not only a technical change, but also the shift in human mind and behaviour which is logically accompanied by the direct bearing on the economy.

All informants pointed out that they see future transport system very much different from what we are used to now. Instead of nowadays common one (fossil dependant) vehicle system, interviewees saw the combination of various technological solutions for different types of trips, depending on the distance, range, purpose etc. However that would hold true only if society is up to reaching sustainable development goals.

Another issue highlighted by most of the interviewees is the tremendous potential lying in Skåne for the transition to fossil free transport system. All of the informants saw many opportunities opening up from transition to fossil free transport system, from both, environmental and economic points of view, namely new enterprises, more regional jobs, increased investment, leading to the further development of the region as well as the improved profile of the region, not forgetting to mention that dependency on imported oil would also be significantly decreased in the long run. The same matters were also discussed as being among main drivers for the transition.

5.1.1 Transition Stakeholders The discussion was held with interviewees regarding who could lead the transition to fossil free transport system in the region. While the majority of them agreed that most responsibility goes to authorities (Region Skåne and municipalities) some were keen on individuals and/or private actors taking the lead as those were considered as the ones having enough financial capacity to start it [transition] off, though it was also thought that even if it would be a good thing for greening their profile, it is still not likely to happen due to relatively low financial incentives. Consequently after discussions, all agreed that there is a need for authorities to take the lead in the transition towards fossil free transport system and by its own work show the example and inspire the rest of stakeholders to follow.


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During interviews the following stakeholders were pointed out as important for the transition to take place:

Government/local-regional authorities; Energy suppliers; Active environmental movements; Companies; University/research centers.

As already mentioned authorities are seen as the stakeholder to take most responsibility in triggering the further change, mobilizing actors and creating conditions for them to proceed with actions.

The energy providers are seen as important actors in the transition to fossil free transport system as they would have the primary interest within the development of EV driven transport, thus could contribute with the knowledge and experience in this field.

Active environmental movements are seen as actors who could work with communication and dissemination questions. In addition, they are perceived as the ones that would be interested in spreading the information concerning the importance of evolving transition to the society.

While companies are seen as intermediate transition partners, namely taking the experience and knowledge accumulated in the public sector and applying it to their own circumstances and vehicles, consequently including more people in the change and being as intermediates between public and private sectors.

Last, but not least is expected from research done in Universities (e.g. Lund University is well known for its high level research), which could assist the transition to fossil free transport by offering no less than innovative solutions and technologies.

Chicken & egg: who makes a move first?

One possibility to solve the chicken & egg issue (a common dilemma of who comes first) was seen in making agreements between suppliers and big consumers (e.g. Region Skåne, municipality with substantial vehicle fleet, companies, etc.), i.e. if a company commits to use a sufficient number of vehicles running on e.g. biogas, thus the provider, e.g. E.ON would commit to establish a certain amount of fuelling stations to support such fleet. In this way it would be a win-win situation for both sides and in addition they would contribute and stimulate the process of transition to fossil-free transport system in the County.

5.2 Skåne through the glasses of TM (phases) The key of the transition management is “anticipation and adaptation, starting from a macro-vision on sustainability, building upon bottom-up (micro) initiatives, while in the meantime influencing the meso-regime” (Loorbach & Rotmans, 2006). Based on this the Transition Management framework can be of assistance to guide and govern the transition to fossil free transport in Skåne by using it not only for planning and communication between various levels of administration and different stakeholders, but also as a tool that would support the achievement of a fossil free transport system in a structured manner. Moreover, the TM model could help region to coordinate transition on a strategic level as a guideline to evaluate if efforts are progressing into the right direction and to ensure that each action along the way contributes to the


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desired end – a fossil free transport system. One of the main advantages of TM framework is that it allows to position oneself in the transition pathway seeing how much is already achieved and how much is left to do.

TM theory describes several stages of a transition, which occur not only in an auspicious transition, but also in failed ones. A successful transition undergoes four different stages: pre-development, take-off, acceleration and stabilization (as described in Chapter 2). In Skåne’s case, a failed transition in the transport sector would mean a continued dependence on fossil fuel powered vehicles for transportation.

Although transition to fossil-free transport in Skåne County is in the relatively early stage, it can already be positioned within the TM framework. In fact, in terms of alignment, it is often in an early stage where the most change can be made. It is a critical time for development of right vision, goals and mindset leading to the chosen direction. In this section Skåne transport segments will be positioned within TM framework.

5.2.1 Public Transport The area of public transport is the transport sector domain where Region Skåne has a prominent power to influence a change; therefore it is interesting to investigate, from a theoretical point of view, how this dependence can be avoided. There could be three illustrative examples where the TM framework could be applicable to facilitate the transition. These examples include Skånetrafiken, transport infrastructure and the own fleet of Region Skåne.

5.2.1.1 Skånetrafiken Consistent with the research, so far the most advanced is the Public transport guided by Skånetrafiken and its goal to be fossil-free by 2020. Within TM framework 1990s can be taken as the starting point and the beginning of the Pre-development phase for the transition in Public transport with the coming attempts to convert diesel busses to run on natural gas. It is estimated that the Take-off phase was reached in (around) the year 2007 with the official decision to gradually phase out fossil fuels by setting the goal to become fossil-free by 2020. Public transport could be currently placed in the Acceleration phase, due to the actions (q.v. Chapter 4) taken by Skånetrafiken to stimulate the change in the fleet. In line with TM framework the Acceleration phase is characterised as the one where the change becomes visible; and this is well represented by Busses running on fossil-free fuel, i.e. biogas, along the Skåne County. Actions are following the overall vision to have a fossil-free Public transport by 2020; strategies and inception goals are there to guide the transition process in a structured way in the step wise manner.

5.2.1.2 Region Skåne According to the research, Region Skåne, along with its more or less newly officially adopted vision to become Fossil free by 2020 can be located in the Take-off phase.

As Region Skåne is responsible for the County Plan for regional transport infrastructure, which is an important task with regard to transition to fossil-free transport system, this is a good opportunity for them through the planning of regional transport infrastructure further develop the public transport and open up the capacity for sustainable transport modes, such as urban railway transport, light rail and biogas, hybrid or other environmentally sound types of cars. Additionally the amount of bike lanes could be increased.


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Close cooperation between Region Skåne Association of Local Authorities and the County Council as well as other organizations would just strengthen and support the transition, and could enhance the knowledge dissemination. Through the collaboration and joint efforts, the advantage of the preparatory work carried out could be used to achieve even more. By helping other actors with the guidance Region Skåne could become a leader in the transition to fossil free transport system in Skåne and by its own example accelerate the change in other vehicle fleets.

5.2.1.3 Municipal vehicle fleet Skåne County is divided into 33 municipalities. As could be seen from few examples provided in Chapter 4 some of the municipalities (e.g. Växjö, Kristianstad) are quite advanced and have profound experience when it comes to efforts and actions supporting the transition to fossil free transport system in the region; while some were found out to be lacking behind mostly due to lack of financial capacity. Therefore it is more difficult to generalize the transition phase of all municipalities as there is a considerable difference among all 33 of them. In principle they could be spread out in somewhere in between the pre-development, take-off and acceleration phases, but to be able to take a broader view it was chosen to take the golden middle and put them on average in take-off phase. In this way the more advances ones could support the development of lacking behind ones, while at the same time still striking forward their own transition to fossil free transport system.

Figure 5-1 Positioning Skåne within TM framework

5.2.2 Private mobility Even though the private (Companies) vehicle fleets were out of the scope for this research, it is supposed that as in every sector there are active and interested in positive change actors. Thus this one should not be seen differently. With the attempt to position it within TM framework it is supposed to be on average still in the pre-development stage due to the obvious lack of incentive and possibility for the change without the support from the higher, namely the governmental level.

5.2.3 Personal mobility Some stimulation of transition in personal mobility is seen from the national level, i.e. rebate scheme for purchasing a “green car” followed by tax exemption. However, it is perceived as rather vague as the national definition of “green car” does not correspond neither with


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national nor with regional vision to become fossil-free. Leaving it up to individual to decide whether they are willing to contribute to it or not yet. This is very likely to lead to the delay in achieving the set vision, as personal mobility, concerning individuals, is considered to be the hardest part of transport sector to change, thus it is positioned in the pre-development phase within TM model, with likely minor deviations by the minority of active environmentally aware individuals.

Yet the speeding up of transition could be achieved by first introducing vehicles and creating market for them within public sector, and afterwards with showing that it works well transferring it to the private persons possibly through the assistance of the second hand market. This would be one of the most prudent ways to influence and accelerate the transition to fossil-free transport system in the personal mobility part.

On the regional level this sector is not seen as the one where change has really started up (besides the few active individuals, who are likely to contribute to the improved environmental performance of the region/country due to their personal commitment and interest). This can be easily explained by the need of national action. There is more possibility that personal mobility can be reached out from the national level, as the central government has more power and legitimacy to interfere with the private individuals. On the other hand, even though several financial incentives (described in Chapter 3) have been introduced on the national level it seems that those were not as successful as planned and gives the impression that only economic benefit is not enough to stimulate the transition forward.

Thus Region Skåne could still play a significant role in the transition to fossil-free transport by encouraging private individuals to contribute to the fulfilment of regional vision by first of all informing individuals of the different possibilities and various choices there are, secondly by introducing some economic incentives while showing that it is not only possible, but also safe and economically viable to change to fossil-free vehicles.

5.3 Skåne through the glasses of TM (cycles) Each stage of the transition consists of open-ended number of so called cycles, which are periodically repeated and are necessary for the overall progress (as described more in detail in Chapter 2). The TM cycles in general include four steps: 1. Problem structuring and network organization, 2. Visions, negotiations and strategy building, 3. Projects/experiments, mobilization of actors and implementation, 4. Monitoring, evaluation and learning.

As private (companies) and personal mobility areas were observed to be in a very early stage, they could in principal be positioned within the first step of TM cycle, though it could still be a bit biased, as there is not even a common vision observed within those two sectors, most likely due to the vast amount of actors and individuals involved. Therefore just the analysis of public transport is given below.

5.3.1 Public Transport

5.3.1.1 Skånetrafiken Overlooking the case of Public transport lead by Skånetrafiken, it is easy to recognise that the cycle was once again started up with the recognition and structuring of the problem (unsustainable public transport system) leading to the long-term vision (fossil-free public transport by 2020). It already went a step further by creating the more or less clear strategy to achieve the set target (interim goals). The next two (3rd and 4th) TM cycle steps could be in a


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way merged and come simultaneously, as it is seen within the Public transport case. Currently Public transport is undergoing the mobilization of actors and try-out, pilot projects with the constant monitoring and evaluation of actions. Surpassingly, learning from them is waiting in the future, together with the subsequent TM cycle.

5.3.1.2 Region Skåne Region Skåne in this cycle is a bit behind if compared to Public transport lead by Skånetrafiken. It is reasonable to say that it has already undergo the 1st step of the cycle and has structured the problem, and made up the vision for the coming future (fossil-free vehicles by 2020) thus moving into somewhat like the middle the 2nd step and currently going through the process of developing the strategy for successful accomplishment of the set vision. In order to go further, and in line with TM framework, the next step is mobilizing the interested stakeholders and starting up various experimental and/or pilot projects which would of course have to be constantly monitored and evaluated to be able to proceed further and adjust to the upcoming conditions. One of the potentially interesting stakeholders to cooperate with could be the energy provider E.ON, as this company was identified as the one having interest, as well as technological and financial capacity to support Region Skåne in achieving its vision to have a fossil free vehicle fleet by 2020.


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6 Discussion Discussion of the data analysis is presented in this chapter

6.1 Transition governance At the micro level in Skåne there are many initiatives and projects going on. In addition there are many projects on the individual level, supporting the bottom-up part, and thus influencing the meso-regime and pushing for the change. At the meso level, the visions are already created and strategies to fulfil them are about to come (e.g. Region Skåne). In order to reach change at the macro level, representing the change in whole society, still a lot needs to be done, and this can not be achieved without the assistance of the national government. Nevertheless the transition process has already started and the main thing needed now is a proper coordination and governance. In order to accelerate and steer the process into the right direction, i.e. to reach the fossil free transport system, there is a need for the coordination of the system change in a structured manner, which could be done with the help of TM framework. As explained in Chapter 2 at least twofold support from government is necessary for the transition to take place: namely procedural and financial; by government meaning not only national, but also regional as well as local authorities.

As already mentioned in the Chapter 3, in Skåne there is a number of pre-conditions already in place (Raw materials, Infrastructural prerequisites, Pioneering position, Enthusiastic players, Interested politicians and A "significant" market) which are expected to support and accelerate the transition to fossil-free transport system. All this could be used as a springboard for the further actions, starting from mobilization of other actors, what is a crucial part in the transition. Thereafter there will be a need for the process of visioning and making all of them to come to a united goal to work for, which is for the moment the fossil fuel free transport system. This it considered to be a strategically important and valuable vision, as it is not favouring any specific technology, thus making it easier to adapt to the forthcoming conditions in the future. And this, namely space for adaptation, is a very important part of the TM framework as it allows experimenting and seeking for the best solution which may be found not instantly, but on the way. Moreover, as TM aims include not only the content but also the process goal, i.e. it is oriented into reaching the structural change in a stepwise mode and is aiming at both the system improvement and system innovation what would let regional authorities to steer and adjust the planned actions along the way. In this way the new governance mode, suggested by TM framework would be adapted in the region leading to take up of learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning approaches, and putting more emphasis on the learning and adjusting to new circumstances instead of controlling and trying to stick to initial plan and neglecting the changing conditions.

For that Region Skåne could assist in creating the so called “Transition arena” where as many as possible affected and interested stakeholders would come together to contribute to the transition by their specific knowledge and experience. The information gained from short-term programmes and pilot projects could be shared within with the intention to choose the best available solution for the identified problematic issue. For this to happen the constant monitoring and evaluation of actions would be necessary. This is one of the points where Region Skåne could use their authority by including relevant people from business, government, academia and civil society who would play the key role in identifying possible transition paths and experiments to take place, as well as develop a transition community. The general time horizon of transition is 25-50 years, which is important to bear in mind, if


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we consider the complete transition to fossil free transport, including all types of vehicles in Skåne County.

Even though the transition to fossil free transport in Skåne can be seen as a reasonable task to achieve, there are certain issues that also need to be acknowledged and taken into account. Among those, there should be a place for the following improvement in order to proceed further, as among conditions for the success are “sense of urgency”, leadership, active government and new governance approaches, guidance, trust and willingness to invest. Additionally, the power division of different lobby groups/stakeholders need to be taken into account seriously and carefully. As depending on their lobbying capacity transition to fossil-free transport system may choose to follow a certain technological path that may prove to be not the solution of the future. In the light of the lacking lobbying and/or power the potential technology/knowledge may be overlooked and not taken into account or explored in a more detailed manner.

When transition reaches the acceleration stage, there is a special need for the control of side effects when technologies are applied on a large scale basis not forgetting the stimulation of learning process with regard to possible solutions of the critical issue. Even though it is not an easy task, as taxes are not appreciated by anyone who is obliged to pay them, still throughout the whole transition process it is important to have the external costs of technologies (both old and new ones) revealed in prices. One way out of this could be the introduction of some charges as a “politically-accepted transition endeavour” with the revenues used for the funding of alternative developments. This is more likely to be done on the national level, though it could be tried out in the region to prove its validity and then applied further on the national governance level.

6.2 Communication of transition As can be seen from the Swedish green car definition (Chapter 3) it does not promote any specific technology or fuel type. Instead it’s aiming at stimulation to reduce usage of fossil fuels resulting in lowered CO2 emissions, which is a positive point. Nevertheless it is not very consistent with the vision of becoming completely fossil fuel free, as the conventional cars are included within the definition of a green car, though it is still acceptable and surpassingly in line with idea of being fossil independent. More bias on green car definition is seen, when it comes to local interpretations as some other definitions do exist on municipal level. In order to avoid confusion among citizens it is advised to the national government to adjust the definition with accordance to the final vision/goal of transport system and align it with other authorities to consistency that would eliminate the possible confusion among citizens.

On the other hand, acknowledging that the transition is in the early stage the more efficient fossil fuel driven vehicles could be left in the definition for the intermediate period till the non-fossil option will become more accessible and/or affordable and wide spread on the market. More clear communication is crucial, e.g. when claiming that Skåne is going to become fossil free by 2020 it should be also mentioned what is meant by this goal and what is included/excluded to avoid miscommunication and misunderstandings as well as wrong interpretations.

Moreover, the previously functioning national rebate scheme (for purchasing a “green car”) is replaced by a long term (5 years) tax exemption, which is applicable not only to the private individual as was in the rebate case, but also includes the cars purchased by business. Though it is hard to make judgments, as it was introduced only early this year, and it is too early to make conclusions on how well it works, it still needs to be well communicated. The aims and


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goals of such instruments should be clearly explained to the society to encourage individuals to make use of the introduced instruments and participate in the transition.

Besides, more clear communication between different stakeholders involved and various projects running is seen by the author as a prerequisite to move the transition forward. It seems like currently the overlap of actions may occur due to the lack of information about the going on projects on various levels. For this matter, the creation of a body responsible for the dissemination of information and bringing together actors working within similar projects would be a way out of such situation.

Networking events are of great importance for the anticipated transition to fossil free transport system, as they provide the place where active and interested in the change actors meet and discuss their ideas, create partnerships, as well as share their experience and knowledge.

Politicians from Region Skåne could play a significant role in setting up goals, and pushing for necessary regulations and correct pricing of CO2 on national or even EU level to avoid market failures, at the same time regional decisions could represent a significant part in showing what type of regulations are necessary and are viable.

Moreover, preparation and education are important parts, involving the provision of information in public places, e.g. schools, to grow the aware and informed public that would be ready for the transition when it reaches the personal mobility. Let people see transition to fossil free transport as an opportunity rather than a threat. It is good for both, region and individuals.

On the other hand, it is important to acknowledge that individuals would not contribute to the vision for purely idealistic reasons; ones need to be motivated by some “carrots” to do the right thing as well as deterred by “sticks” from doing the wrong ones. Thus transition should be based on shared goals and clear plans for action, timely adjusting the latter one according to the situation, lessons learned, etc.

6.3 Transition constraints and potential Technological, Human and Economic constraints to transition to fossil free transport system were identified in Chapter 4. Still, a lot can be done locally to help improve the economic accessibility and viability for the bio-gas and/or electric cars, including free parking, a clever extension of the infrastructure for refuelling and recharging, and by running pilot projects that drive the market. In order to overcome the above mentioned obstacles collaboration of stakeholders and interested parties is necessary.

Among the necessary actions to overcome identified constrains lies in following pillars: Expansion of infrastructure, purchase of vehicles, mobility concepts and knowledge building.

Infrastructure expansion includes fuelling and charging stations for eco-vehicles in various locations around the region. It could also be combined with various payment systems and new business concepts surrounding it.

Purchase of vehicles can be continued within the Public transport sector, and initiated as planned by Region Skåne to show the commitment and accelerate the infrastructure expansion as well as public acceptance of various types of new vehicles, such as biogas or EVs, and/or testing of electric buses in urban areas, like hybrid biogas/electricity or purely electric.


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New mobility concepts need to be developed and promoted, e.g. where never possible switch from car to public transport (train or bus) or bicycle. According to A.Olsson (8 June 2010), 50% of all mileage in the city driven by car is shorter than 5 km, and it is important to find ways to get people to opt instead for other transport means e.g. electric bicycle, mopeds, etc. A shift in human mind is essential to the success of transition, thus the engagement of the whole society into the transition could help to gain more interest and in this way is more likely to lead to innovative solutions.

Knowledge building is crucial. New transport modes require information and change in attitudes to urban transport. Evaluation of behaviour and usage patterns in order to find the right concepts for the future is necessary.

As the transition is a process starting with the construction of a future vision, in Skåne case – to become fossil-free, it is useful to follow up the vision by looking back from the future and then creating an action plan how to proceed from the current state towards the desired future. The TM framework could support and be of an assistance in guiding the governance of transition to fossil free transport in Skåne by using it not only for planning and communication between various levels of administration and different stakeholders, but also as a tool that would support the accomplishment of the set goal (to have a fossil free transport system) in a structured manner. It is important, that pathways how to get to the desired vision are developed jointly with the stakeholders involved in the transition. One of the necessities here lies in the extended support from local governments because of the infrastructure aspects. Likewise, gas/electricity producers and contractors need to become involved, as they are very important players. The infrastructure as well as delivery of fuel, no matter if it is biogas or electricity, needs to be agreed on and secured and this is in general done on the higher power level; though when having the local production some of it could be achieved on regional level as well.

Organizations and networks could be essential players in the transition to fossil free transport system. Some of these work with various environmental, climate and sustainability issues and builds up a complex network of partners and target groups of different actors, such as municipalities, business, research and individuals. Municipalities have a key role by their proximity to citizens and businesses locally.

6.4 Promising transition pathways: What can a region do? The start up of transition was done with the Public busses, which now comes to be followed up by Region Skåne, i.e. its own vehicles fleet. This could be (relatively simultaneously) followed by some private companies transforming their car fleet to some of the available fossil-free vehicles. Finally to reach the complete transition to fossil-free transport system by including the whole population in the Skåne County as they will already be convinced by proven examples.

If the region is to succeed in transition to fossil free transport it needs long-term and effective policies that send clear signal to society about reduced fossil dependency.

It needs to be acknowledged that region can only have limited influence over the key means of control for transport policies; as laws in this area are made by national Government or by the EU, which is also dependent on the decisions made on a global level (Figure 6-1). Taxes and fees are also decided on the national level, thus region has a limited opportunities to use judicial means of control when dealing with transition to fossil free transport. There is more scope for using economic and administrative instruments to steer the transition. Municipalities, Region Skåne as the county council, and other independent groups (q.v.


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Appendix III) are capable of taking the responsibility for driving the transition to fossil free transport and supporting the development in the geographical area of Skåne.

Figure 6-1 Interaction and influence between different power levels

The key concept leading the transition should be co-ordination, which could be made smoother and more structured by using TM (described in Chapter 2) as a framework.

If considering the complete transition to fossil free transport system it should be also taken into consideration that not all vehicles used today will be phased out by 2020.

International (EU)

National (Sweden)

Regional (Region Skåne)

Local (municipalities)

Global


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7 Conclusions and recommendations This chapter wrap up thesis by giving concluding remarks with regard to transition to fossil free transport system in Skåne.

Satisfying the goal to reach fossil-free transport system can look like a daunting task for the region. Measures to promote environmentally friendly transport concepts in Skåne will require interventions and collaboration from various stakeholders. To make a gradual transition to a sustainable mobility system it is important to guide the transition. Fortunately, there is a clear political goal in a region. The challenge is how to reach it balancing the trade-offs as well as accomplishing the goal without scarifying too much on the way.

By having an early start in the transition to fossil-free transport system, Skåne is likely to have more gain than loss. It can improve not only the environmental performance, but also may help to create new business opportunities, start up new enterprises thus contributing to economic development which would also lead to the improved image of the Region and attract more investment in the long run. If the region is to succeed in transition to fossil free transport it needs long-term and effective policies that send clear signal to society about reduced fossil dependency.

The proposed Transition Management framework could help Region Skåne to achieve the transition to fossil free transport system within its own vehicle fleet. TM is a process-oriented and goal-seeking way of governance. Instead of usual planning and controlling TM puts emphasis on nurturing and growing. Accordingly other stakeholders interested in making the change within their transport fleet would have more material and a valid example of the transformation as the work on improving regions climate requires contributions from the society, businesses and individuals. In order to accelerate and steer the process into the right direction, i.e. to reach the completely fossil free transport system, there is a need for the coordination of the system change in a structured manner, which could be done with the help of proposed Transition Management framework.

It was identified, that twofold support from local/regional/national government is necessary for the transition to take place: namely procedural and financial. For that reason an important task for the government is to assist in setting-up the vision, inspire, motivate and mobilize various actors for the action. Governments’ role in the transition management is among the leading one, besides coordination it could/should ensure the creation of real market with the help of new rules and/or laws. National, regional and local economic instruments are needed.

So far efforts made in southern Sweden are regarded as efficient and meritorious. Some balanced priorities and boundaries are made as everything can not happen simultaneously, and all is not equally important or rewarding. Through collaboration, region can take advantage of the preparatory work carried out and use it to achieve even more.

Among the recognized success factors of this are: Raw materials, Infrastructural prerequisites, Pioneering position, Enthusiastic players, Interested politicians and A "significant" market; in addition the County is considered to have especially good conditions for biogas production as well as rapidly expanding infrastructure, and support from strong players. Thus it is likely that Skåne can go before the rest of Sweden and the rest of the world in the fossil-free transport what would not only lead to the environmental improvement but also let to prepare for the anticipated shortage of fossil fuels.


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7.1 General recommendations Cooperation of various actors is of key significance on the way to fossil-free transport system. It is important to share the information and knowledge for the overall learning from the process and also to avoid duplicating the already done work as well as move further more rapidly. In addition, cooperation means sharing the responsibility and doing what one is best at, thus contributing to overall societal benefit.

Among the economic instruments that could accelerate transition to fossil free transport are local and regional investment programmes (e.g. KLIMP7). Fees and subsidies (e.g. subsidised public transport, parking fees, congestion charges) regarding road users can be introduced to cover negative effects of road traffic in region and support development of alternative systems. In addition, region can contribute to innovation through co-financing R&D activities at institutions of higher education. What is more, region could contribute to acceleration of transition to fossil free transport by providing consulting service to business to share its knowledge and experience.

In order to avoid confusion among citizens it is advised to the national government to adjust the definition with accordance to the final vision/goal of transport system and align it with other authorities to consistency that would eliminate the possible confusion among citizens.

The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep,

And miles to go before I sleep -- Robert Frost

7 KLIMP = Climate investment programme


38

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Appendix I List of interview informants

Following table presents a summary of conducted interviews in the period of 1st June – 3rd September, 2010.

Table 0-1 List of interviewees

Date Name of interviewee Organization Position Interview type

2010 06 01

Michael Johannson

Environmental Strategy, Helsingborg Campus, Lund University

PhD In person

2010 06 02

Patrik Rydén

Øresund Logistics Managing Director In person

2010 06 03

Roland Zinkernagel

Environmental Department, Malmö municipality

EU coordinator and sustainability strategist In person

2010 07 05 Bengt E.Svensson

MotivationsHuset AB CEO In person

2010 07 07

Karl-Erik Grevendahl

Development AB Advisor Sustainable Business Development In person

2010 07 08

Kristina Christensson

Skånetrafiken Environmental Strategist In person

2010 07 16

Anders Åkesson

Region Skåne

Regional Commissioner responsible for Public Health and Internal Environment

In person

2010 08 02

Sven Åberg

Lund University Professor and Head of Mathematical Physics In person


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2010 08 11

Gösta Ahlberg

Ahlviser AB

Currently: Management consultant Previously: Managing director at Öresundståg AB Managing director at Skånetrafiken

In person

2010 08 13

Gabriella Eliasson

VA SYD Waste manager, Biogas expert

In person

2010 08 13

Björn Mollstedt

E.ON

Innovation and Environment Business Development E.ON Nordic

In person

2010 08 17

Lars J. Nillson

Lund University Professor, Environmental and Energy Systems Studies

In person

2010 09 03

Anders Nylander

Skåne Energy Agency Responsible for strategies and planning In person


43

Appendix II Interview questions

Following the general types of questions posed to interviewees are outlined. The intention of the questions was to guide the interview; thus they were not necessarily firmly followed.

Understanding of fossil free transport system, attitude towards transition to fossil free transport system

What does the term fossil free stand for in your opinion? What does it include/exclude? What is a fossil free fuel?

Into what segments would you divide the land-based transport system? What’s your opinion about the strategy to have fossil free transport system in Skåne?

Situation overview in Skåne

What is the current position of Skane region with regard to transport system? What is dominant? What are the trends for future?

What currently ongoing and planned initiatives, research, development and/or demonstration projects and research programmes in Skåne region do you know?

Who are the main stakeholders involved in Skåne region and what is/should be their role within the transition?

Opportunities and constraints

Which opportunities or possibilities do you see with regard to the introduction of the fossil free land-based transport system in Skåne Region?

Which problems or constraints do you see/have you noticed already with regard to the introduction of fossil free vehicles, transport system as a whole?

Transition governance

What policy frameworks and instruments (legislative, economic, informative) are there to support such a transition in Sweden (national level)?

How does national-regional-local framework works in Sweden? How do they share the responsibilities?

What additional national and/or international support may be needed to enhance the transition towards the fossil free transport system?

Further Contacts/ Information

Who else could you recommend to contact for further information? What sources of information would you recommend?


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Appendix III Organizations and networks in Skåne

Below a number of relevant organizations operating in southern Sweden, encountered while conducting the research, are listed.

Biogas South (Biogas Syd) was formed in 2005 and is a regional collaborative for biogas stakeholders. Together with business, organizations and government agencies, both at local and regional level, Biogas South is working towards the common goal of increased use and production of biogas for the benefit of environment and climate. (www.biogassyd.se)

Climate Municipalities (Klimatkommunerna) supports municipalities in their environmental work. The network is spreading information and experiences on local climate work and raising awareness of climate problem. Helsingborg, Hässleholm, Kristianstad, Lund and Malmö are members of the network. (www.klimatkommunerna.com)

Environment Link Skåne - the web site presenting environmental work of Region Skåne. (www.miljo.skane.se/)

ISU Sustainability Institute (Institutet för hållbar stadsutveckling) is one of knowledge and experience center working with the sustainability analysis of more development areas, conversion areas and major strategic projects; developing sustainable solutions for thematic areas such as traffic, green building. (www.isumalmo.se)

Skåne Climate Collaboration (Klimatsamverkan Skåne) was found in spring 2010 with the aim to work together on climate change in southern Sweden. It is a partnership between Region Skåne, Skåne Association of Local Authorities and the County Administrative Board of Skåne County. The major areas of work are: reduction of carbon footprint, customize the society to future climate change, creating a sustainable society in collaboration with citizens, organizations and business. (www.klimatsamverkanskane.se)

Skåne Energy Agency (Energikontoret Skåne) is a unit of Skåne Association of Local Authorities with a view to promote energy efficiency and increased use of renewable energy in region. Energy Agency's work is addressed to all county residents, municipalities, industries and organizations. Skåne Energy Agency supports the work of municipal energy and energy and climate advice. It is also working on projects related to biogas and South European projects for the development of vehicle fuel. (www.ek-skane.se)

Skåne Environmental Collaboration (Miljösamverkan Skåne) is a joint project between municipalities in Skåne, Association of Local Authorities, County Administration. Environmental Collaboration aims to streamline environmental health work in the county and provide support to regulatory authorities in the environmental code. (www.miljosamverkan.se , www.m.lst.se/m/miljosamverkan_skane)

Skåne Sustainable Development (HUT Skåne) was founded in 1998 and is a non-profit organization with aims to promote dialogue between different actors in the region. (www.hutskane.nu)


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Sustainable Mobility Skåne (Hållbar Mobilitet Skåne (HMSkåne) - is a regional center that works to reduce the environmental impact of transport and travel in Skåne. Center organizes workshops, seminars and field trips. Much of the activity conducted in project form, eg Public Procurement and behavioural changes. (www.hmskane.se)

Sustainable Municipality (Uthållig kommun) is collaboration between Swedish municipalities throughout Sweden and Energy Agency. In Skåne, Helsingborg and Lund are members. Energy Agency is contributing information and knowledge and helps to create bridges between municipalities and other stakeholders to facilitate exchange of experiences. (www.energimyndigheten.se)

Swedish eco-municipality (Sveriges Ekokommuner) is a non-profit organization founded in 1995; helping Swedish municipalities to become sustainable. There are currently 71 eco-municipalities in Sweden. (www.sekom.nu)

Swedish Environmental Research Institute, IVL (Svenska Miljöinstitutet) is working with the development and application of knowledge and solutions in the environmental area for Swedish industry. (www.ivl.se)

The Venuppropet initiative is operated as a project of the Motivation House (Motivationshuset), a company that supports management and motivates employees in the development stages. The project is financed by the Region Skåne Environmental Management and Industrial development and Skåne Savings Bank Foundation. Initially it was started by some 90 actors representing business, public organizations and the University of Lund; currently over 100 actors are part of it; all pulling their weight, creating a more sustainable society by limiting the carbon footprint. (www.venuppropet.se)


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Appendix IV Swedish 16 Environmental objectives for sustainable society

16 Environmental objectives for sustainable society are (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2009):

1. Reduced Climate Impact,

2. Clean Air,

3. Natural Acidification Only,

4. A Non-Toxic Environment,

5. A Protective Ozone Layer,

6. A Safe Radiation Environment,

7. Zero Eutrophication,

8. Flourishing Lakes and Streams,

9. Good-Quality Groundwater,

10. A Balanced Marine Environment, Flourishing Coastal Areas and Archipelagos,

11. Thriving Wetlands,

12. Sustainable Forests,

13. A Varied Agricultural Landscape,

14. A Magnificent Mountain Landscape,

15. A Good Built Environment and

16. A Rich Diversity of Plant and Animal Life.