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Transition to a sustainable energy matrix in
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)
Arnaldo Vieira de Carvalho
Sustainable Energy for All LAC Hub @
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Energy Division; Washington, DC [email protected]; +1(202) 623-1719
Advisory Board
Ban Ki Moon & Jim Yong Kim
Co-Chairmen
Global Facilitator Team
Rachel Kyte
CEO
Regional Hubs
IDB, AfDB & ADB
RE & EE Hubs
High Impact Opportunities
UN SE4All Global
Initiative
SE4All 2030
Targets
Guarantee
Universal Access to Modern Energy
Double
Renewable Energy in Global Energy Mix
Double
Energy Efficiency Rate of Improvement Globally
Source: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/summit
New Sustainable Development Goals – SDG
replacing MDG approved in 2000
A major SE4All result:
SDG7: an energy-dedicated goal
aligned with SE4All, also for 2030
Source: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgsproposal.html
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
LAC* World Brazil EU China Africa USA Japan
29
13
40
1311
49
64
40
22
51
27
17
53
18
142013
2030
Source: Scenario 450 ppm CO2eq;+2ºC global temp., WEO 2015, IEA (*LAC does not include Mexico)
% r
en
ew
ab
le e
ne
rgy
Participation of renewable energy in
total energy demand; 2013-2030 (ref. IEA 450 scenario)
+70% +40% 2X 3X 1.5X +8% 3.5X +30%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
LAC* World Brazil EU China Africa USA Japan
63
22
77
2721
1512 14
83
41
93
49
3944
32 33
2013
2030
% r
en
ew
ab
le e
nerg
y
Participation of renewable energy in
electricity generation; 2013-2030 (ref. IEA 450 scenario)
+90% +30% +80% +90% 3X 2.7X 2.4X
Source: Scenario 450 ppm CO2eq;+2ºC global temp., WEO 2015, IEA (*LAC does not include Mexico)
+20%
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
118
46
3122
9 121
-31
E
E
Source: Scenario CPS (ref. EEffic.) and 450 ppm CO2 eq;+2ºC global temp., WEO 2015, IEA (*LAC does not include
Mexico)
Mto
e/y
ear
in 2
030 x
20
13
How to meet the growth in total LAC* energy demand:
34% growth during 2013-2030 (ref. IEA 450 scenario)
+50% 3x +9% 4% -12% 5x
15% of expected total demand in 2013
(half of additional demand 2013 - 2030)
+40% Increase from 2013:
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gt CO2 eq
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Gt CO2
4°C
Global C emissions due to energy
EEffic.
CCS
nuclear
biofuels
renewables
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
2°C 2DS 4DS
Relevance of Energy Efficiency (EEffic.)
for global Carbon emissions reduction
4 X 2015 RE global investment: US$286 billion 2 X
Investment in Sustainable Energy in LAC*
(Climatescope 2015)
Source: http://global-climatescope.org/en/download/ (* does not include large hydro)
Source: http://global-climatescope.org/en/download/
Source: http://global-climatescope.org/en/download/
Source: http://www.ren21.net/
2015: for the first time in history, investment in renewable energy in developing
countries (+19% ref 2014) outweighed that in developed economies (-8% ref 2014).
