Transit Election Trends:a look back at Election 2013 +

ahead to 2014

November 12, 2013Washington, DC

Today’s Speakers• Jason Jordan, Director, Center for

Transportation Excellence• Matt Leow, Senior Consultant, M+R

Strategic Services• Kate Whiting, Field Director,

Transportation Choices Coalition• Andrew Austin, Director, Americans

for Transit

2013 Results:15 Measures10 Wins – 4 Losses – 1 Pending71.1% Approval Rate

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NHMA

DE

RI

LEGENDTransit BallotMeasures

Pending TransitMeasure

'Unscored' TransitMeasure

2013 Transit Elections

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

32

41

56

49 48

5762

Transit Ballot MeasuresMain Cycle 2000-2012

Avg = 47

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20130

5

10

15

20

25

30

14

17

24

18

11

28

15

Transit Ballot MeasuresOff Cycle 2001 - 2013

Avg = 18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

68%

46%

51%

71%

82% 83%

65% 66%

77%73%

77%79% 79%

71%

Ballot Measure Success Rate 2000 - 2013 (YTD)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

77%

73%

77%

79% 79%

71%

Transit Ballot Measure Approval RateRecession & Recovery (2008 - 2013 YTD)

2008 – 2013 Avg. Win Rate: 76%2013 Win % w/ Tulsa Victory: 73.3%

Types of Ballot Measures

Sales Tax42%

Property Tax39%

Bond11%

Ve-hicle Fee3%

Advisory3%

Other3%

Sales Tax24%

Property Tax47%

Bond18%

RTA6%

Other6%

20132000 - 2012

Election Day isn’t Over

‘Improve Our Tulsa’ Ballot Measure $919 million capital improvement packageExtends existing 1.1% sales tax and $355 million bond package$30 million for transit$24 million for bike / pedTulsa County to vote in Spring ‘14

2013 CAMPAIGN SUMMARIESCenter for Transportation Excellence

MichiganMichigan

ALCONA

ALGER

ALLEGAN

ALPENAANTRIM

ARENAC

BARAGA

BARRY

BAY

BENZIE

BERRIENBRANCH

CALHOUN

CASS

CHARLEVOIX

CHEBOYGAN

CHIPPEWA

CLARE

CLINTON

CRAWFORD

DELTADICKINSON

EATON

EMMET

GENESEE

GLADWIN

GOGEBIC

GRANDTRAVERSE

GRATIOT

HILLSDALE

HOUGHTON

HURON

INGHAM

IONIA

IOSCO

IRON

ISABELLA

JACKSONKALAMAZOO

KALKASKA

KENT

KEWEENAW

LAKE

LAPEER

LEELANAU

LENAWEE

LIVINGSTON

LUCE

MACKINAC

MACOMB

MANISTEE

MARQUETTE

MASON

MECOSTA

MENOMINEE

MIDLAND

MISSAUKEE

MONROE

MONTCALM

MONTMORENCY

MUSKEGON

NEWAYGO

OAKLAND

OCEANA

OGEMAW

ONTONAGON

OSCEOLA

OSCODA

OTSEGO

OTTAWA

PRESQUE ISLE

ROSCOMMON

SAGINAW

ST. CLAIR

ST. JOSEPH

SANILAC

SCHOOLCRAFT

SHIAWASSEE

TUSCOLA

VAN BURENWASHTENAW WAYNE

WEXFORD

4 Elections in 2013

Kalamazoo County – Property Tax RenewalEscanaba Township – Property TaxWells Township – Property TaxSchoolcraft County – Property Tax Increase

Wins in Kalamazoo Co., Schoolcraft Co.Losses in Wells and Escanaba Townships

WashingtonWashington

ADAMS

ASOTINBENTON

CHELANCLALLAM

CLARK

COLUMBIA

COWLITZ

DOUGLAS

FERRY

FRANKLIN GARFIELD

GRANTGRAYSHARBOR

ISLAND

JEFFERSON

KINGKITSAP

KITTITAS

KLICKITAT

LEWIS

LINCOLN

MASON

OKANOGAN

PACIFIC

PENDOREILLE

PIERCE

SAN JUAN SKAGIT

SKAMANIA

SNOHOMISH

SPOKANE

STEVENS

THURSTON

WAHKIAKUM WALLA WALLA

WHATCOM

WHITMAN

YAKIMA

0.1% Sales tax increase in Grays Harbor County Passes; Restores significant service cuts

0.4% Sales tax established to create the Okanogan County Transit Authority

Grays HarborYES: 71%NO: 29%

OkanoganYES: 56%NO: 44%

OhioOhio

ADAMS

ALLENASHLAND

ASHTABULA

ATHENS

AUGLAIZE

BELMONT

BROWN

BUTLER

CARROLL

CHAMPAIGN

CLARK

CLERMONT

CLINTON

COLUMBIANA

COSHOCTON

CRAWFORD

CUYAHOGA

DARKE

DEFIANCE

DELAWARE

ERIE

FAIRFIELD

FRANKLIN

FULTON

GALLIA

GEAUGA

GREENE

GUERNSEY

HAMILTON

HANCOCK

HARDIN

HARRISON

HENRY

HIGHLAND

HOCKING

HOLMES

HURON

JACKSON

JEFFERSONKNOX

LAKE

LAWRENCE

LICKING

LOGAN

LORAIN

LUCAS

MADISON

MAHONING

MARION

MEDINA

MEIGS

MERCER

MIAMI

MONROEMONTGOMERY

MORGAN

MORROW

MUSKINGUM

NOBLE

OTTAWA

PAULDING

PERRYPICKAWAY

PIKE

PORTAGE

PREBLE

PUTNAM

RICHLAND

ROSS

SANDUSKY

SCIOTO

SENECA

SHELBY

STARK

SUMMIT

TRUMBULL

TUSCARAWAS

UNION

VAN WERT

VINTON

WARRENWASHINGTON

WAYNE

WILLIAMS

WOOD

WYANDOT

FAYETTE

Lake County approves a dedicated, permanent sales tax set aside (.25%) for LakeTran

Lorain County defeats .04 mill property tax increase for local transit service (41% - 59%)

Perrysburg approves .08 mill, 5-year property tax. Voted in 2012 to leave the regional transit authority. Second measure to fund local service; first (larger) measure defeated. (72% -28%)

Spencer Township votes again on TARTA. Narrowly votes to leave the system. Similar measure defeated in ‘12.

North Carolina

North Carolina

ALAMANCE

ALEXANDER

ALLEGHANY

ANSON

ASHE

AVERY

BEAUFORT

BERTIE

BLADEN

BRUNSWICK

BUNCOMBEBURKE

CABARRUS

CALDWELL

CAMDEN

CARTERET

CASWELL

CATAWBACHATHAM

CHEROKEE

CHOWAN

CLAY

CLEVELAND

COLUMBUS

CRAVENCUMBERLAND

CURRITUCK

DAREDAVIDSON

DAVIE

DUPLIN

DURHAM

EDGECOMBE

FORSYTHFRANKLIN

GASTON

GATES

GRAHAM

GRANVILLE

GREENE

GUILFORD

HALIFAX

HARNETT

HAYWOOD

HENDERSON

HERTFORD

HOKE

HYDE

IREDELL

JACKSONJOHNSTON

JONES

LEE

LENOIR

LINCOLNMCDOWELL

MACON

MADISONMARTIN

MECKLENBURG

MITCHELL

MONTGOMERYMOORE

NASH

NEWHANOVER

NORTHAMPTON

ONSLOW

ORANGE

PAMLICO

PASQUOTANK

PENDER

PERQUIMANS

PERSON

PITT

POLK

RANDOLPH

RICHMOND

ROBESON

ROCKINGHAM

ROWAN

RUTHERFORD

SAMPSON

SCOTLAND

STANLY

STOKESSURRY

SWAIN

TRANSYLVANIA

TYRRELL

UNION

VANCE

WAKE

WARREN

WASHINGTON

WATAUGA

WAYNE

WILKES

WILSON

YADKIN

YANCEY

Raleigh, NC approves $75 million bond initiative for transportation projects.

Spotlight remains on Wake County in 2014 with a potential sales tax initiative for transit joining neighboring Orange and Durham Counties.

YES: 70%NO: 30%

Montana

MontanaBEAVERHEAD

BIGHORN

BLAINE

BROADWATER

CARBON

CARTER

CASCADE

CHOUTEAU

CUSTER

DANIELS

DAWSON

DEERLODGE

FALLON

FERGUS

FLATHEAD

GALLATIN

GARFIELD

GLACIER

GOLDENVALLEY

GRANITE

HILL

JEFFERSON

JUDITHBASIN

LAKE

LEWISAND

CLARK

LIBERTYLINCOLN

MCCONE

MADISON

MEAGHER

MINERALMISSOULA

MUSSELSHELL

PARK

PETROLEUM

PHILLIPSPONDERA

POWDER RIVER

POWELL

PRAIRIE

RAVALLI

RICHLAND

ROOSEVELT

ROSEBUD

SANDERS

SHERIDAN

SILVERBOW STILLWATER

SWEETGRASS

TETON

TOOLE

TREASURE

VALLEY

WHEATLAND

WIBAUX

YELLOWSTONE

YELLOWSTONE NP

Property tax increases passes in Missoula for

the Mountain Line.

YES: 57%NO:43%

Colorado

Colorado

ADAMS

ALAMOSA

ARAPAHOE

ARCHULETA BACA

BENT

BOULDER

CHAFFEE

CHEYENNE

CLEARCREEK

CONEJOSCOSTILLA

CROWLEYCUSTER

DELTA

DOLORES

DOUGLAS

EAGLE

ELBERT

EL PASO

FREMONT

GARFIELD

GILPINGRAND

GUNNISON

HINSDALEHUERFANO

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA

KIT CARSONLAKE

LA PLATA

LARIMER

LAS ANIMAS

LINCOLN

LOGAN

MESA

MINERAL

MOFFAT

MONTEZUMA

MONTROSE

MORGAN

OTERO

OURAY

PARK

PHILLIPS

PITKIN

PROWERS

PUEBLO

RIO BLANCO

RIO GRANDE

ROUTT

SAGUACHE

SANJUAN

SAN MIGUEL

SEDGWICK

SUMMIT

TELLER

WASHINGTON

WELD

YUMA Nederland, CO passes property tax measure to create Nederland Eco Pass improvement district with free transit service.

Statewide school reform and tax measure fails.

Transit advocates ponder options, including a statewide transportation measure, for 2014.

YES: 55%NO: 45%

Maine

Maine

ANDROSCOGGIN

AROOSTOOK

CUMBERLAND

FRANKLIN

HANCOCK

KENNEBEC

KNOXLINCOLN

OXFORD

PENOBSCOT

PISCATAQUIS

SAGADAHOC

SOMERSET

WALDO

WASHINGTON

YORK

Statewide $100 million transportation bond package

One of five bond measures approved by voters; won with the largest margin

Multimodal initiative

YES: 72%NO: 28%

CASE STUDY: FRIENDS OF MOUNTAIN LINE (MISSOULA, MT)

Center for Transportation Excellence

Background on the Missoula Urban Transportation District (MUTD)

Operates Mountain Line, Missoula’s community bus service – 12 fixed routes, para-transit service, senior van, vanpool.

Created by voters in 1976. Nov. 2013 was the first time MUTD has placed a mill levy request before voters since then.

New improvements: wi-fi, 3-bike racks, phone app. Setting ridership records the last several years, nearly 1

million rides.

MUTD Budget

Planning for Expanded Service

• 2011-2012 Comprehensive Operational Analysis and development of 5 phase plan.

• Focused on increasing ridership by creating:– Higher-frequency service on key routes– Late evening service– Senior van and paratransit approaching capacity.

• Phases 2 through 5 would require new money

The Campaign – Stage 1:Assessing the Community

• 60 one-on-one community interviews• Public opinion research/community surveyFINDINGS:• Mountain Line is a trusted community partner. • Broad (but not intense) support for a levy:

– 61% support (27% strong, 34% weak) – 36% against (19% strong, 17% weak)

The Campaign – Stage 2:Positioning for Success

• 35th Anniversary in 2013 – begun year-long promotion of Mountain Line’s 35 years of community bus service to build goodwill.

• Strategic communications throughout 2013:– Outreach at community events, earned and paid

media– Partnerships, prizes, etc.

The Campaign – Stage 3:Vote FOR Our Bus and Missoula’s Future

• Friends of Mountain Line ballot committee.• Treasurer and steering committee.• Strategy – direct voter contact for voter ID &

GOTV using traditional and new online tools.• Key partners – MontPIRG, Montana

Conservation Voters.

Community EndorsementsBUSINESSES AND ORGANIZATIONSASUM Office of TransportationAmerican Public Transportation AssociationBike/Walk Alliance for MissoulaCommunity Medical CenterDraught Works BreweryGCSHomewordMissoula Area Central Labor CouncilMissoula Area Chamber of CommerceMissoula Community Food Co-opMissoula County DemocratsMissoula Downtown AssociationMontana Chapter of the Sierra ClubMontana Conservation VotersMontana Public Interest Research Group (MontPIRG)Montana Women VoteM+R Strategic ServicesNorth-Missoula Community Development CorporationOpportunity Resources, Inc.pLAND Land Use ConsultingProvidence St. Patrick HospitalSouthgate MallTeamsters Local Union No. 2Western Montana Mental Health Center

INDIVIDUALSJohn Engen, MayorCongressman Pat Williams (ret.)Asa Hohman, President, Associated Students of the University

of MontanaRep. Bryce BennettRep. Jen GurskyRep. Ellie HillRep. Nancy WilsonRep. Carolyn SquiresSen. Carol Williams (ret.)Sen. Sue MalekJason Wiener, City Council, Ward 1Dave Strohmaier, City Council, Ward 1Cynthia Wolken, City Council, Ward 2Alex Taft, City Council, Ward 3Caitlin Copple, City Council, Ward 4Jordan Hess, City Council candidateBryan von Lossberg, City Council candidateEmily Bentley, City Council candidateAndrea DavisAnne M. Breum D.M.D., P.CDaniel Kemmis (former Mayor)Elaine HawkEllen BuchananJack Chambers

Key Media Coverage

“Reward Mountain Line service, support mill levy” – Missoulian Editorial

“Business leaders support Mountain Line mill levy request” -- by Todd Frank (MDA) and Tim Winger (Mall)

“Endorsement: Vote “Yes” on Mountain Line Mill Levy” – Missoula Independent

Get Out the Vote! • Mail Ballot – Two Weeks• Urban Core Voters • ID List of 14,000 +• GOTV focused on ID’ed voters, Model Voters,

Pledges and MCV Lists (members) • Tracking of ID’ed daily. Our voter outperformed

average voters by nearly 10 percentage points • Phone Calls carried the day.

Election Results—Nov. 5

• Mill Levy passes with 57% of the vote• Wins in 5 out of 6 City Wards• Strong support in the urban core• Overall voter turnout 42% = avg. of municipal

vote-by-mail elections

CASE STUDY: WASHINGTON CAMPAIGNS

Center for Transportation Excellence

PREVIEW OF ELECTION 2014Center for Transportation Excellence

ID

AZ

UT

MT

WY

NM

CO

AL

FL

SC

TN

KY

INOH

NC

SD

KS

NE

MN

WI

IA

IL

MO

AR

MS

OK

ND

OR

CA NV

WA

AK

PA

ME

VA

NY

CT

WV

MDNJ

VT

NHMA

DE

RI

LEGEND

Possible Measure

Qualified forBallot

PossibleStatewide

State Legcampaign

2014 Potential Transit Campaigns

HI

LA

MI

GA

TX

Upcoming WebinarsJanuary 14, 2014Getting Ready for the Ballot

February 18, 2014Funding Your Campaign

March 25, 2014Making Friends for Transit Investment

Register at www.cfte.org/six-stops

Questions?Jason Jordan

Director, CFTEjjordan@cfte.org

@jasonljordanwww.cfte.org

Thanks to our cosponsor