Transformation towards a sustainable European Energy ... · technology pathway to a decarbonised energy system in the future. • A useful Energy Roadmap has to provide information

Energy for Europe Prof. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Voß 1

Transformation towards a

sustainable European Energy

System – Which Roadmaps?

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Voß Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

Universität Stuttgart

EUROPEAN ENERGY CONFERENCE 2012

Maastricht, 17.- 20. April 2012

Energy for Europe Prof. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Voß 1

What is an Energy Roadmap?

• A useful Roadmap is not a blue-print of a particular

technology pathway to a decarbonised energy system in the

future.

• A useful Energy Roadmap has to provide information for the

design of an energy policy framework

by exploring the technical and systems aspects as well

as the economic implications of a range of possible

transition paths to a low-carbon energy system

by making transparent the potential trade-offs between

the three objectives - decarbonisation, security of supply

and competitiveness – of the transition pathways

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Voß Energy for Europe

Energy in Europe – the situation

at the outset

3

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Voß Energy for Europe 4

Energy in the EU-27: Gross Inland Primary Energy

Consumption (by Fuel)

Source: EUROSTAT (2012)

Import Dependency

[%]

1990 45.3

+19%

2010 54.1

Energy Intensity

[toe/000 €2000]

1990 215

-23%

2009 165 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy c

on

su

mp

tio

n E

U-2

7 [

EJ

/a]

Solid fuels Oil Gas

Nuclear Renewables Others


Final Energy Consumption in the EU-27 (by Sector)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Fin

al E

ne

rgy C

on

su

mp

tio

n E

U-2

7 [

EJ

/a]

Industry

Services, Agriculture and Others

Households

Transport


Final Energy Consumption in Transport in the EU-27


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Fin

al E

ne

rgy C

on

su

mp

tio

n T

ran

sp

ort

EU

-27

[E

J] Diesel Gasoline

Kerosene Gas (incl. LPG)

Electricity Bio fuels


Electricity consumption in the EU-27 is increasing

8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Fin

al E

lectr

icit

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n E

U-2

7 [

TW

h]

Transport

Services, Agriculture, Others

Households

Industry


Electricity

• is the fuel for lighting,

information and

communication as

well as stationary

drives

• can be produced from

all primary energy

sources

• offers an energy-

efficient substitution of

hydrocarbons (heat

pumps, electric

vehicles)


Electricity in the EU-27

Source: EUROSTAT (2012), EURELECTRIC (2011), own calculations

Electricity Generation Capacity

(EU-27) in 2010: 871 GW

Gross Electricity Generation (EU-

27) in 2010: 3346 TWh

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Gro

ss e

lectr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n E

U-2

7 [

TW

h]

Others RenewablesNuclear Petroleum ProductsNatural Gas Solid fuels

Coal23%

Petroleum products

6%

Natural gas24%

Nuclear15%

Hydro 16%

Wind9%

Solar4%

Biomass 3%

Others 0%


Electricity Generation by Fuel - Selected Countries 2010


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PL DK IT DE EU-27 FR SE CH (2009)

Sh

are

s i

n e

lec

tric

ity g

en

era

tio

n

Hard coal Lignite Petroleum Products

Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro

Wind Others


Net Imports of Electricity of EU-27 Countries (2010)


Italy

Finland

Greece

EU-27

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Ireland

Denmark

Poland

Spain

Bulgaria

Czech Republic

Germany

France

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Net imports of electricity, 2010 [TWh]


Installed Capacity of Electricity Generation and

Electricity from Renewables in the EU-27


7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

19%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Sh

are

of

ren

ew

ab

les

in

gro

ss

ele

ctr

icit

y

co

ns

um

pti

on

Ele

ctr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n f

rom

re

ne

wa

ble

s [

TW

h]

RES electricity

RES share

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ins

tall

ed

ca

pa

cit

y f

or

ele

ctr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n [

GW

]

Others

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Hydro


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

En

erg

y r

ela

ted

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

[M

t]

Energy sector

Industry

Transport

Residential, Services and Agriculture

Others

15

Energy Related CO2 Emissions (by Sector)

Source: UNFCCC (2012)

Sum:

3527 Mt

40.0%

15.1%

26.4%

19.7%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2009

Secto

ral

sh

are

s i

n e

nerg

y

rela

ted

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns [

%]


CO2 Emissions in Europe: Selected Countries

9.2 9.1

7.6

5.8

4.8

5.6

3.9 3.9

2.6

0.7 0.80.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Denmark Germany EU-27 France Sweden Switzerland

CO

2 e

mis

sio

ns

pe

r c

ap

ita

[t/

inh

ab

ita

nt]

Energiebedingte CO2-Emissionen je Einwohner

CO2-Emissionen der Stromerzeugung je Einwohner

Energy related CO2 emissions per capita

CO2 emissions in electricity generation per capita

Source: UNFCCC (2010) and EUROSTAT (2010), own calculations;

CO2 in electricity generation comprises emissions from public electricity and heat production


Energy Outlook – Comparison of three

Pathways to a Low-carbon Energy System

19


Overview of Scenarios Current Policy Scenario CPS

• Includes policies adopted by 2011 e.g. RES and GHG reduction targets 2020;

Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) Targets; after Fukushima nuclear policy plans

Decarbonisation Scenarios: GHG-Red. 20% in 2020; 80% in 2050

Renewable Energy Pathway REP

• Increasing reliance on RES, 60% share in gross final energy and 65%share in

electricity consumption 2050

High Renewable Electricity HRE

• More renewables, 80% share in electricity comsumption 2050

Ressource Efficient Decarbonisation Pathway RDP

• Decarbonisation options compete on economic grounds

no specific support measures or political limitations for technologies


Primary Energy Consumption in the EU-27

21

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

900002

01

0

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2020 2030 2040 2050

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy c

on

su

mp

tio

n [

PJ

]

Net electricityimport

Waste (nonrenewable)

Otherrenewables

Hydro, wind,solar, Ocean

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal


Share of fossil fuel imports in total primary

energy consumption in EU-27

22

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Shar

e o

f im

po

rts

of

foss

il e

ne

rgie

s o

f to

tal p

rim

ary

en

erg

y co

nsu

mp

tio

n

CPS

REP

HRE

RDP


Final energy consumption in the EU27

23

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000M

od

ell

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

To

tal

fin

al

en

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n [

PJ

]

Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)

Waste

Renewables

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Petroleum products

Coal


25

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000M

od

ell

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fin

al

en

erg

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n T

ran

sp

ort

[P

J]

Others (Methanol,Hydrogen, DME)

Waste

Renewables

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Petroleum products

Coal

Final energy consumption transport in the EU27


Electricity Generation EU-27

26

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

45002010

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2020 2030 2040 2050

Sh

are

of

ren

ew

ab

le e

lectr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n o

f to

tal

gro

ss e

lectr

icit

y c

on

su

mp

tio

n

Net

ele

ctr

icit

y s

up

ply

[T

Wh

]

Electricity storage(excl. pump storage)Electricity ImportsDesertecNet Imports w/oDesertecOthers / Waste non-ren.

Other Renewables

Biomass / Waste ren.

Solar

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

Hydro (incl. pumpstorage)Nuclear

Gas CCS

Gas w/o CCS

Oil

Lignite CCS

Lignite w/o CCS

Coal CCS

Coal w/o CCS

Share of renewableenergies


Share of electricity generation in the EU-27

27

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

10

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2020 2030 2040 2050

Sh

are

of

net

ele

ctr

icit

y g

en

era

tio

n

Other

Renewables

Nuclear

Fossil CCS

Fossile non CCS


Electricity exchange

28

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400S

tati

sit

ic

Mo

de

ll

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2045 2050

Ele

ctr

icit

y n

et

imp

ort

s [

TW

h]

East Europe

Baltic states

Scandinavia

Greece

Italy+Slovenia

Germany

Alps (AT, CH)

Benelux

France

Iberia

UK+Ireland


Generation Capacities in the EU-27

29

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

16002010

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2020 2030 2040 2050

Ne

t e

lectr

icit

y c

ap

acit

y

[GW

]

Electricity storage(excl. pump storage)

Others / Waste non-ren.

Other Renewables

Biomass / Waste ren.

Solar

Wind

Hydro incl. pumpstorage

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal


Electricity storage capacities in the EU-27

30

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1000002010

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2020 2030 2040 2050

Net

ele

ctr

icit

y c

ap

acit

y [

MW

]

Vehicle Storage

CAES

Batteries

Pump Storage


Average cost of electricity generation

31

55

6268

49

68

79

88

56

90

100

112

67

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

CPS REP HRE RDP CPS REP HRE RDP CPS REP HRE RDP

2020 2030 2050

Avera

ge l

evelised

co

sts

of

gen

era

tin

g

ele

ctr

icit

y

[EU

R2

00

0/M

Wh

]


Annual energy system costs compared to CPS

32

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2010

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

CP

S

RE

P

HR

E

RD

P

2020 2030 2040 2050

De

lta

sys

tem

co

sts

co

mp

. to

CP

S-2

01

0 [

Bln

EU

R2000]

TransboundaryCarbontransport/storage

Certificate costs

Biofuel Trade

Electricity TradeCosts

Investment Costs

Variable Costs

Fix Costs

Total costs


Investments in the electricity sector EU 27

33

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2010 CPS REP HRE RDP CPS REP HRE RDP CPS REP HRE RDP CPS REP HRE RDP

2020 2030 2040 2050

Tota

l un

dis

cou

nte

d in

vest

me

nt

in t

he

pu

blic

ele

ctri

cty

gen

era

tio

n s

ect

or

[Bio

. Eu

ro]


Cumulated energy system costs EU 27

34

Cumulated system costs compared to CPS [Bln €2000]

2010 - 2030 2010 - 2050

REP: Renewable Energy Pathway

61 1625

HRE: High Renewable Electricity

95 1820

RDP: Ressource Efficient Decarbonisation Pathway

-558 -485

Absolute Difference to CPS


Thank you very much for

your attention!

Documents

Transformation towards a sustainable European Energy ... · technology pathway to a decarbonised energy system in the future. • A useful Energy Roadmap has to provide information