Transformation Index BTI 2012 Dr. Martin Brusis (University of Munich) Dr. Hauke Hartmann (Bertelsmann Stiftung) Budapest І May 16, 2012

Transformation IndexBTI 2012

Dr. Martin Brusis (University of Munich)

Dr. Hauke Hartmann (Bertelsmann Stiftung)

Budapest І May 16, 2012

Transformationsindex BTI 2012 · Gütersloh · 22.03.2012 · 2

Political Performance in International Comparison

BTI 2003

116 Countries

BTI 2006

119 Countries

BTI 2008

125 Countries

BTI 2010

128 Countries

BTI 2012

128 Countries


2 Indices, 3 Dimensions

Status Index

Status of Political and Economic Transformation

Economic TransformationPolitical Transformation

Management Index

Political Leadership towards Democracy and a Market Economy

Transformation Management


3 Dimensions, 17 Criteria, 52 Questions

5 Criteria

Level of DifficultySteering CapabilityResource EfficiencyConsensus BuildingInternational Cooperation


7 Criteria

Economic Transformation

5 Criteria

StatenessPolitical ParticipationRule of LawStability of DemocraticInstitutionsPolitical and Social Integration

Political Transformation

1.2.3.4.

5.

6.

7.

8.9.

10.11.12.

13.14.15.16.17.

Level of SocioeconomicDevelopmentOrganization of the Market/CompetitionCurrency and Price StabilityPrivate PropertyWelfare RegimeEconomic PerformanceSustainability


3 Dimensions, 17 Criteria, 52 Questions

5 Kriterien

SchwierigkeitsgradGestaltungsfähigkeitRessourceneffizienzKonsensbildungInternationale Zusammenarbeit


7 Kriterien


5 Criteria

StatenessPolitical ParticipationRule of LawStability of DemocraticInstitutionsPolitical and Social Integration


1.2.3.4.

5.

6.

7.

8.9.

10.11.

12.

13.14.15.16.17.

Sozioökonomisches EntwicklungsniveauMarkt- und Wettbewerbs-ordnungCurrency and Price StabilityPrivate PropertyWelfare RegimeLeistungsstärke derVolkswirtschaftlichen Sustainability

Political ParticipationFree and Fair ElectionsEffective Power to GovernAssociation/Assembly RightsFreedom of Expression

2.2.12.22.32.4


BTI Codebook


BTI Workflow

1. Country Assessments

4. Inter-regional Reviewand Calibration

2. First Review

3. Intra-regional Reviewand Calibration

5. Final Reviewand Calibration


Publications

Online: www.bti-project.org

Interactive Transformation Atlas

Transformation Index BTI 2012 (also as e-book)

Ranking Transformation IndexBTI 2012

128 In-depth Country Reports

7 Comprehensive Regional Reports





Democracies in Consolidation

23




Defective Democracies

39





Highly Defective Democracies

13






Moderate Autocracies

20







Hard-line Autocracies

33







Hard-line Autocracies


Free and Fair Elections

10—9 Points

8—7 Points

6 Points

5—1 Points

BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 2012

41

22

50

40

26

46

33

27

46

30

32

48

6 13 22 18

Number of Countries per Level, BTI 2006—2012


Eastern Europe

Deteriorations in Association/Assembly Rights & Freedom of Expression, BTI 2006—2012

Deteriorations in Association/Assembly Rights

Deteriorations in Freedom of Expression

Deteriorations in Association/Assembly Rights and Freedom of Expression


Criterion “Political Participation”

Hungary in International Comparison, BTI 2006—2012

BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 20121

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Hungary

East-Central Europe

Southeast Europe

Global Average

Changes 2010—2012 East-Central Europe

Free and Fair Elections

Hungary -1

Effective Power to Govern

---------------------

Association/Assembly Rights

Hungary -1

Freedom of Expression

Hungary -2Latvia -1Slovakia -1


Criterion “Rule of Law”

Hungary in International Comparison, BTI 2006—2012

Changes 2010—2012 East-Central Europe

Separation of Powers

Hungary -3Slovakia -1Poland +1

Independent Judiciary

Czech Rep., Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia -1

Prosecution of Office Abuse

---------------------

Civil Rights

Hungary -1Slovakia -1Poland +1

BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 20121

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Hungary

East-Central Europe

Southeast Europe

Global Average





Developed Market Economies

15




Functioning Market Economies

15





Market Economies with Functional Flaws

51






Poorly Functioning Market Economies

40







Rudimentary Market Economies

7







Rudimentary Market Economies


Macrostability by Region, BTI 2006—2012

East-Central and Southeast Europe

BTI 2006 BTI 2008 BTI 2010 BTI 2012

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

Latin America and the Carribean

Middle East and North Africa

Global AverageAsia and OceaniaPost-Soviet EurasiaSouth and East Africa

West and Central Africa





very good

8



very good

good

36



very good

good

moderate

43



very good

good

moderate

weak

27



very good

good

moderate

weak

failed or nonexistent

14



very good

good

moderate

weak

failed or nonexistent


Deteriorations in Hungary‘s Management Performance (BTI 2010—2012)

Indicator Score Excerpt from Country Report

Prioritization 7 (-2)“Fidesz’s steering capacity has markedly declined. Indeed, the party has shown a sizable capacity for conquering positions of power but very low capacity for policy-making.”

Policy Learning 6 (-2)“The government has so far followed trial and error. EU budget regulations […] have driven this state of permanent improvisation. […] Civil servants can [now] be dismissed without any explanation.”

Consensus on Goals 8 (-2)“All political actors and/or parliamentary political parties advocate the goals of democracy and market economy. However, there are deep cleavages over the concepts of democracy and market economy between/among political actors.”

Anti-democratic Actors 8 (-2)Jobbik is an extreme right party […]. The Fidesz government began with a symbolic piece of legislation […] to appease the extreme right and to weaken Jobbik’s popular support and appropriate it for themselves.

Reconciliation 5 (-2)“The present political leadership manipulates the memories of historical injustices as a weapon against political opponents. It did this with both the terror victims of the 1950s and the extreme right demonstrators in October 2006.”

Credibility 7 (-2)“The government tries to present itself as a credible and reliable partner but it is not really trusted by many […] EU leaders, the IMF and the financial community.”

Regional Cooperation 8 (-2)“At formal-legal level, regional cooperation is working well. […] But in “high politics” like dual citizenship, the government created tensions with neighbors.”


www.bti-project.org

Documents

Transformation Index BTI 2012 Dr. Martin Brusis (University of Munich) Dr. Hauke Hartmann (Bertelsmann Stiftung) Budapest І May 16, 2012