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What’s cooking in Mozambique?
Rita Neves
Andrea Rossi
UNICEF Mozambique
TRANSFER PROJECT
Addis Abeba 7 April 2016
Building the Evidence For ScaleMozambique Social Protection Strategy
Luca Pellerano
ILO
SP PROGRAMS IN MOZAMBIQUE HAVE BEEN COOKING FOR A LONG TIME
One of the oldest programs in Africa (1990)
96% from the envelope of resources for SP programs comes from internal
sources; only 4% of external origin (DFID and EKN)
2005 2010
Livingstone Conference and the Inclusion of the Social Protection Indicators in the GoM’s PAF.
Approval of the Law on Social Protection and One UN Joint Programme support to the sector
Mozambique signs the Social Policy Framework for Africa. The basis for financial support to the PSA established.
Approval of the Regulation for the Basic Social Protection Subsystem and of the Regulation for the Coordination of the Mandatory Social Security System. Design of the National Strategy for Basic Social Security.
SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT - TIMELINE
PHASE 1: ESTABLISHMENT OF A LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR SOCIAL PROTECTION
2015
Approval of the ENSSB 2010-2014. Fiscal Space and Capacity Development
Creation and approval of the programmes within ENSSB’s implementation framework.
Development of a business model for the new basic social security programmes.
PHASE 2: OPERATIONALIZATION OF POLICIES
Increased budget allocations, expansion of INAS programmes and the creation of the technical secretariat for the Coordinating Council of the BSS Subsystem
Evaluation of the ENSSB, the development of a Management and Information System and a Single Registry.
Revision of the ENSSB, development
of the operating system for the new
basic social security programmes.
2011
SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT - TIMELINE
Establishthe legal framework (2005-2010)
Expand coverage, improve quality and increase efficiency (2010-2016)
Support to ProgrammesAdjustment in line with the ENSSB IIEvidence building and monitoring, system strengthening(2016-2019)
BUILDING A SOCIAL PROTECTION FLOOR IN MOZAMBIQUE - TIMELINE
0.65 0.490.30 0.28 0.17 0.20 0.17 0.20
0.190.30
0.350.68 0.79
1.111.47
1.78
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pe
rce
nta
gem
do
Orç
amen
to d
o E
stad
o
BUDGET ALLOCATION TO MGCAS AND INAS
Orçamento total INAS
Orçamento total MGCAS
0.21 0.240.34
0.500.580.58 0.63
0.95
1.11
1.54
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EVOLUTION OF THE BUDGET ALLOCATION TO INAS PROGRAMS
Alocação aos Programasem relação ao PIB
Alocação aos Programasem relação ao OE
ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE SECTOR
287,000
339,736 355,500
427,000
535,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
HH COVERED BY INAS PROGRAMS
** Target in PES 2015
**
EVOLUTION OF THE TRANSFER VALUE FOR A ONE-PERSON HH BENEFITING FROM THE PSSB (MZN)
ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE SECTOR
ENSSB 2010-2014
HOUSEHOLDS
ENSSB II 2016-2024
INDIVIDUALS
PSSB Ultra-poor labour-constraint HH PSSB Old Age grant
Disability and chronic and degenerative
disease grant
Child Grant (0-2 years old)
Child-headed households Grant
Grant for Orphan Children living in
poor and vulnerable families
PASD In-kind support for HH that are
temporarily incapacitated to
work
PASD Multiform support in response to situations of specific shocks andnatural disasters
PASP Public-works program for HH
with ability to work
PASP Public-works program for HH with
ability to work
SOCIAL
SERVICES
Family Orientation and
Reunification
SOCIAL
SERVICES
Preventative and Protection Services in
the Community
Social Units Institutional Care
ENSSB – OLD vs NEW
ESTIMATED COVERAGE OF THE ENSSB II - 2024
3.3 MILLION DIRECT BENEFICIARIES
1.4 MILLION BENEFICIARIES OF THE CHILD GRANT
ENSSB II COST – GDP PERCENTAGE
IMPACT ON POVERTY AND INEQUALITY
Estimated impact of poverty and inequality, only with full coverage (2024)
Global reduction of poverty gap of 16%
BUILDING THE EVIDENCE
Negotiation Phase
Estimating cost and impact of the program despite limited data (IOF 2009) [done]
Design Phase
• MEF updating cost and impact assessment with new data (IOF 2015)
• Understanding the implication of grants structure (time, amount to be disbursed and frequency, bottlenecks)
Implementation Phase
Using the expansion in coverage to undertake a solid impact assessment as a means to build the evidence, including the new Child Grants
CHANGING POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SCENARIO
MSW limited capacity to engage on PFM and impact assessment . Inst. Capacity challenges
Need to double the envelope for social protection (2 points GDP)
Pressure to reduce public
spending due to delay in LGN
revenues
Political moment for the new
Strategy: need to ensure continued
commitment
NEXT STEPS
Engagement of sectoral line ministries, including the Ministry of
Finance
Assessing the impact – focus on of implementation
• Evaluability Assessment
• External impact evaluation
• Focusing on: indicators on well being of children (food security,
diversity, malnutrition, assets, housing, clothes, hygiene, access to
health, life in a family) as well as effectiveness of programme
implementation:
• Impact of modality of disbursement (frequency, amount)
• Selection of first group of families with children (focus on impact)
• Using the evidence to adjust the programs
Build the evidence to scale up the Social Protection , and increase the
impact of the full strategy
THANK YOU!
TRANSFER PROJECT
Addis Abeba 7 April 2016
Rita [email protected]
Andrea Rossi [email protected]
