Transcript 1976

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Transcript of an address by Dr

Puey Ungphakorn, October 14,

1976 at the School of Oriental

and African Studies, LondonDr Puey Ungphakorn

Available online: 02 Apr 2008

To cite this article: Dr Puey Ungphakorn (1976): Transcript of an address by Dr PueyUngphakorn, October 14, 1976 at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London,

Journal of Contemporary Asia, 6:4, 497-500

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T r a n s c rip t o f a n a d d r e ss b y D r P u e y U n g p h a k o r n , O c t o b e r 1 4 , 1 9 7 6 a t t h e S c h o o l

o f O r i e n t a l a n d A f r ic a n S t u d i e s , L o n d o n .D r P l t ey U n g p h a k or n , f o r m e r G o v e r n o r o f t h e B a n k o f T h a il an d , w a s R e c t o r o fT ham m asa t U n iv e r si ty Ban gk o k un t i l the r e c e n t c oup .

I t h in k y o u h a v e h e a r d t h e C h a i r m a n e x p la i n in b r ie f w h a t h a s h a p p e n e d i n T h a il a nd .

T h e r e a r e t wo o r t h r e e h i g h li g h t s t h a t 1 wo u l d l i k e t o p r e se n t t o y o u . On e i s t h is :

n o w a l m o s t e v e r y b o d y i n T h a i l a n d f o r g e t s wh a t t h is i s a ll a b o u t . T h a t is t o s a y t h e

r e t u m o f F i e ld M a r s h al T h a n o m , th e f o r m e r d i c t a to r , w h o w e n t t o S i n g a p o re a n d

w h o c a m e b a c k o n 1 9 S e p t e m b e r . T h e p a s t c o u p a n d t h e v i o l e n c e i n T h a m m a s a t

U n i v e r si ty , an d t h e r u m o u r s o f t h e i m p e n d i n g c o u n t e r - c o u p ( n o t r e al ly c o u n t e r -c o u p b u t s e c o n d c o u p o r t h i rd c o u p ) , m a d e , 1 t h i n k , e v e r y b o d y f o r g e t fu l in Ba ng -

k o k o f wh a t t h e r o l e o f F i el d Ma r sh al T h a n o m will b e . T h a t i s o n e t h i n g . Se c o n d

t h i n g is t h a t t h e r i g h ti s t f a c t i o n o f o u r so c i e t y , n a m e l y t h e m i l i t a r y a n d t h e p o l i c e ,

s e i z e d a s a p r e t e x t f o r t h e v i o l e n c e i n T h a m m a sa t Un i v e r s i t y so m e t h i n g t h a t t h e y

g o t o u t o f t h e t h i n a ir . T h a t i s t o s a y u p o n t il e r e t u r n o f F i e l d Ma r sh a l T h a n o m

t h e re w e r e q u i t e a l o t o f d e m o n s t r a t i o n s u p a n d d o w n t h e c o u n t r y . T h e s t u d e n t s

w e r e w a i t i n g f o r t h e g o v e r n m e n t t o d o s o m e t h i n g a b o u t i t b u t t h e g o v e r n m e n t a t

t h a t t i m e c o u l d n o t d e c i d e wh a t t o d o , so t h e s t u d e n t s we n t i n t o t h e s t r e e t s a t n i g h t

t o p u t p o s t e r s u p t o te ll t h e p e o p l e t h a t F i e ld M a r sh a l T h a n o m w a s n o t w a n t e d a n d

h e sh o u l d b e s e n t b a c k o r e l s e d e a l t w i t h a c c o r d i n g t o t h e l a w . T h o se s t u d e n t sw e r e a t t a c k e d b y h o o l i g a n s ( o f c o u r s e ) h i r e d b y t h e a r m y t o a t t a c k t h e m . T h e r e

wa s o n e T h a m m a sa t Un i v e r s i ty s t u d e n t ~ v h o wa s s e r i o u s l y i n j u r e d d u r i n g t h e n i g h t ,

a n d t w o o t h e r T h a m m a s a t s t u d e n t s w h o w e r e a t t a c k e d b u t n o t s e r i o u s l y i n j u r e d .

T h e n f o ll o w i n g t h e se e v e n t s , in N a k o r n H l a t h o m s o m e 6 0 k i l o m e t r e s f r o m B a n g k o k ,

t w o e m p l o y e e s o f t h e e le c t r ic i t y a u t h o r i t y w h o w e r e a c ti v is ts w e n t o u t t o p u t u p

p o s t er s c o n d e m n i n g F i el d M a r s h al T h a n o m . O n e m o r n i n g t h e y w e r e fo u n d h a n g ed .

An d i t wa s e s t a b l i sh e d , i t wa s d e c l a r e d b y t h e p o l i c e t h e m se l v e s a n d b y t h e g o v e r n -

m e n t o n T u e sd a y , 5 Oc t o b e r , t h a t t h e p e o p l e r e sp o n s i b l e f o r t h e se d e a t h s we r e fiv e

l oc a l p o l ic e o f N a w a p h o n , a p p a r e n t l y n o w u n d e r a r re s t.

W e ll, t h is e v e n t o f p e o p l e k i ll e d b y t h e p o l i c e in N a k o m Ph a t h o m l e d t o t h e

d e m o n s t r a t i o n in T h a m m a s a t U n i v e rs i ty o n M o n d a y , 4 O c t o b e r . M e m b e r s o f a

S t u d e n t Un i o n o f T h a m m a sa t U n i v e r s it y b e l o n g i n g to ti le d r a m a t i c so c i e t y d r e s se d

u p a s s t u d e n t a c t iv i s ts a n d p r e t e n d e d t o b e h a n g e d i n T h a m m a sa t Un i v e r s i ty . T h e r e

w e r e t w o o f t h e m , o n e o f t h e m h a s a l i k e n e s s t o t h e C r o w n P r i n c e , b u t t h e r e w a s

n o i n t e n t i o n t o c a ll a t t e n t i o n t o t h i s I a m su r e b e c a u s e m a n y f a c u lt y m e m b e r s w h o

h a v e s e e n h i m sa id t h a t h i s f a c e wa s n o t m a d e - u p o r d i sg u i s ed in a n y wa y a n d t h a t

h e p u t u p a v e r y g o o d p e r f o r m a n c e , i n f a c t. T h e n t h e a r m o u r e d d i vi si o n r a d io s t a t i o n

wh i c h h a d b e e n a g a i n st t h e s t u d e n t s f o r so m e t i m e , p a r t i c u l a r l y a g ai n s t T h a m m a sa t

U n i v e rs it y , p i c k e d u p a t o u c h e d - u p p h o t o g r a p h o f t h e s t u d e n t , p r i n t e d b y o n e o f

t h e n e wsp a p e r s , t h e S iam S tar . T h a t n e w s p a p e r h a d t o u c h e d - u p th e p h o t o g r a p h s o

t h a t t h e s t u d e n t wo u l d l o o k l i k e t il e C r o w n P r i n ce . U s in g th i s a s a p r e t e x t , th e a t -



498 JOUR NAL OF CONTEMPORAR Y ASIA

m o ur e d d iv is ion r a d io s t a t ion be ga n to s t ir up m a ss hys te r i a , pour ing ou t p r opa ga n-

da f r om a bou t s ix o ' c loc k in the e ve n ing o f Tue sd a y the 5 th un t i l da wn o f We dnes -da y the 6 th o f Oc tobe r . The y c a l l e d up a l l t he v i l l a ge sc ou t s ; t he y c a l l e d up the

Na wa phon , a r igh t - wing g r oup ; the y c a l l e d ou t pa r t i c u la r ly the " r e d ga ur s" ( w i ld

buf f a loe s , kathing daeng) voc a t iona l s tude n t s who ha d use d v io le nc e in the pa s ta nd who a re se e m ing ly im m une f r om po l i c e ar re s t. S o the y p ic ke d som e th ing

ou t o f th in a i r and m a de a s to r y o f it .

S o the gove r nm e n t o f S e n i P r a m oj wa s f r igh te ne d . S e n i P r a m oj c a l l e d a n e m e r -

ge . c y m e e t ing ove r th i s a f f a i r on Tue sda y n igh t , a nd de c ide d to de c la r e tha t t he

gove r nm e n t wou ld inve s t iga te th i s m a t t e r . I n the m e a n t im e the a r m our e d d iv i s ion

ha d be e n suc c ess fu l i n ge t t ing voc a t iona l s tude n t s a nd v ig il a n te s to f i re a t Tha m m a -

sa t Un ive r si ty f r om one o ' c lo c k in the m or n ing un t i l s e ve n o ' c loc k whe n the po l i c e

we n t in to Tha m m a sa t . Th e y w e n t in a l l e ge d ly in o r d e r to a r r es t a s tude n t l e a de r

a n d t h e y o u n g m a n w h o l o o k e d l i k e t h e C r o w n P r i nc e . B u t t h e s tu d e n t l e a d er a n d

the m a n r e se m bl ing the P r inc e ha d a l r e a dy gone to the P r im e M in i s t e r ' s house , i no r de r to e xp la in to h im tha t t he r e wa s no in t e n t io n a t a ll of m o c k i n g t h e C r o w n

P r inc e o r de s t r oy ing the m ona r c hy . The y in f a c t e sc a pe d the ons laugh t in Tha m m a -

sa t be c a use the y we n t . The P r im e M in i s t e r a t t ha t t im e ha d a l r e a dy l e f t h i s house

f o r t h e G o v e r n m e n t H o u s e , a n d u p o n r e ce i vi n g a t e le p h o n e c a ll in f o r m i n g h i m t h a t

the s tude n t s ha d gone to h i s hous e , he c a l l e d the c h ie f o f po l ic e to t e l l h im to goa nd a r r e s t t hose pe op le . P e r ha ps sm a l l m e r c y , o the r wise those pe op le wou ld ha ve

b e e n d e a d n o w . S m all m e r c y , p e r h a p s , b u t I d r e a d t o t h i n k w h a t h a p p e n e d t o

the m in the ha nds o f the po l i c e , be c a use o the r pe op le who we r e a r r e s t e d a f t e r -

w a r d s w e r e a t t a c k e d b r u t a l l y a n d s o m e o f t h e m e v e n t o r t u r e d . B u t n e v e r t h e l e s s

tha t shows tha t t he the a t r i c a l ha ng ing was r e a lly innoc e n t , a nd i f t he P r im e M in i st e rha d , i n s t e ad o f u s ing the po l i c e to g e t t he s tude n t s invo lve d , be e n t a lk ing to m e a s

R e c t o r o f T h a m m a s a t I c o u l d h a ve p r o d u c e d t h e m w i t h o u t t h e p o l ic e i n te r fe r in g .

This again i s a grea t m is take o n the par t o f the Pr im e M inis te r Seni Pramo j . In fac t

I h a d t a lk e d t o h i m o n t h e t e l e p h o n e a b o u t 1 1 o ' c l o c k i n t h e n ig h t o f T u e s d a y b u t

t h e r e w as n o m e n t i o n o f t h i s m a t t e r , t h e r e w as n o r e q u es t t h a t I sh o u l d p r o d u c e t h e

s t u d e n t l e a d e r fr o m t h e d e m o n s t r a ti o n .

T h e r es t o f t h e s t o r y y o u k n o w . N o w I w a n t t o d w e l l o n a n o t h e r m a t t e r t h a t h a s

no t be e n in the p r e s s in th i s c oun t r y . Whi le the a r m our e d d iv i s ion a nd the p r e s s ,

som e o f the r e g im e n t o f p r e s s , ha d be e n t e l l i ng pe op le tha t t hose s tude n t s a t

Tha r a m a sa t m us t be k i ll e d ( tha t i s t he wor d th e y use , " th e y m us t be k i l l e d" ) be-

c a use a s one o f the r igh t .w ing p r i e st s , K i t t iw u tho , s a id , "Ki l l ing a C om m unis t is

no t a s in" . T he r e f o r e the a r m o ur e d d iv i s ion r a d io too k tha t up a nd said those

pe op le in Tha m m a sa t m us t be k i l l ed . B u t tha t i s one th ing . The o th e r th ing tha t

the a r m o ur e d d iv i sion ha d done on tha t e ve n ing wa s to p r o te s t a ga inst t he new

g o v e r n m e n t . A s y o u k n o w t h e n e w g o v e r n m e n t f o r m e d b y S e n i P r am o j w a s s w o r n

in , in the p r e se nc e o f the K ing , on M o nda y the 4 th . On tha t da y S e n i f a il e d to

a ppo in t two m in i s t e r s tha t t he a r m our e d d iv i s ion wa n te d ; two r igh t - wing m in i s -

t e r s, S om boo n S i r idha r a a nd S a m a k S un th or nve j , bo th f om le r De pu ty M inis te rs

o f I n t er i o r. W e l l S o m b o o n a n d S a m a k ( p a r t ic u l a rl y S o m b o o n ) h a d b e e n i n w i ththe mi l i ta ry a l l the t ime dur ing the las t e lec t ion , even before . When the govern-

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DOCUMENTS 499

b r in g i n g p e o p l e i n t o e x p r e s s p u b l i c o p i n io n , a n d t h e o p i n i o n e x p r e s s e d b y t h o s e

p e o p l e w a s t h a t wh i l e Se n i P r a m o j o u g h t t o b e a sk e d t o b e P r i m e M i n is t er a g ai n ,

s o m e o f h i s m i n i s t er s o u g h t t o b e d i s c ar d e d . T h i s w a s th e o p i n i o n e x p r e s s e d b y t h e

p e o p l e i n t h e i r b r o a d c a s t . B u t t h e a r m o u r e d d i v i s i o h r a d i o wa s n o t r e f e r r i n g t o

S o m b o o n a n d S a m a k a t a l l, th e y w e r e r e f e r ri n g t o t h e l e ft - w in g e le m e n t s ( i f s u c ha t h i n g c o u l d b e i d e n t i f i e d ) o f t h e l a s t m i n i s t r y . B u t Se n i t u r n e d t h e t a b l e , a n d t h is

t i m e le f t S o m b o o n a n d S a m a k o u t o f h is c ab i n e t . T h a t is w h y t h e a r m o m e d d iv i si on

w a s v e r y a n g r y . Y o u s e e , i n s te a d a t n a m i n g o t h e r p e o p l e a s b a~ t r a m m e r s , S e n i

wa s a c t i n g a s i f h e c o n s i d e r e d S o m b o o n , Sa m a k a n d t h e i r a llie s, t o b e th e b a d

m i n i s t e r s . So t h e a r m o u r e d d i v i s i o n o n t h a t T u e sd a y n i g h t , c a l l e d u p o n t h e r i g h t -

w i n g g ro u p s , t o d e m o n s t r a t e a n d p r o t e s t a g ai n st t h e n o n - in c l u s io n o f S o m b o o n

a n d S a m a k , a n d t h is s t a rt e d a t 9 o ' c l o c k in t h e e v en i ng . W h e n T h a m m a s a t h a d

a l r e a d y b e e n v a n q u i sh e d r i t e d e m o n s t r a t i o n c o n t i n u e d a g a i n s t t h e g o v e r n m e n t .

Se n i P r a m o j i n t h e e n d a g r e e d t o y i e l d t o t h e p r e s su r e a n d s a i d t h a t h e wo u l d

r e c o n s i d e r h i s Pa r l i a m e n t .O f c o u r s e a n h o u r l a t e r a c o u p d ' e t a t w a s o r g a n iz e d b y u n k n o w n p e r s o n s w i th

Ad m i r a l Sa n g a d t h e f o r m e r C o m m a n d e r - i n - C h i e f a s ( I t h i n k ) f i g u r e h e a d . W e ll, t h i s

is w h a t h a p p e n e d . I n t h e n e w s e t -u p S a m a k w a s c a ll ed i n a n d a p p o i n t e d a s o n e

o f t h e m e m b e r s o f t h e p r e s s c e n s o r s h ip c o m m i t t e e , b u t t h a t is a n o t h e r m a t t e r .

E v e r y b o d y i n B a n g k o k a t t h i s m o m e n t is a f ra i d o f a s e c o n d c o u p . W h o e v e r

o r g a n is e d t h e p r e s e n t c o u p h a s e n e m i e s , e n e m i e s i n t h e a r m y it se lf . I n o t h e r w o r d s

t h e a r m y i s d i v id e d , a n d t h o s e p e o p l e w h o w e r e n o t i n c l u d e d i n th e C o u n c il o f

2 4 o r 2 5 a r e d is s a ti s fi e d . T h e a r m o u r e d d i v i s io n ' s r a d i o s t a t io n a n d t h o se p e o p l e

wh o a r e r e sp o n s i b le f o r i t h o p e d t h a t t h e i r p e o p l e wo u l d b e i n c lu d e d i n th e c o u n c i l

o f 2 5 , b u t i t w a s n o t s o , an d t h e r e f o r e t h e a r m o u r e d d i v is io n d e c i d ed n o t t o p u b l i s ht h e n a m e s o f t h e 2 5 m e m b e r s o f t h e c o u n c il . T h a t s h o w s h o w t h e y b e h a v e . T h e

l a t e s t n e w s i s t h a t a G e n e r a l , G e n e r a l C h a l a r d , h a d b e e n d i s m i s s e d f r o m t h e a r m y .

H e d i d n o t r e p o r t t o d u t ie s a n d w a s s u s p e c t e d o f p l o t t in g a n d w a s th e r e f o r e d is -

m i s se d . Ge n e r a l C h a l a r d w a s o n e o f t h e c l o se s t a s so c i a te s o f F i e l d Ma r sh a l T h a n o m

a n d a g r e a t s u p p o r t e r o f N a r o n g , t h e s o n o f T h a n o m w h o h a d b e e n re s p o n s ib l e f o r

t h e c a r n a g e i n 1 9 7 3 . So t h e r e e x i s t s a f a c t i o n c o n s i s t i n g o f Ge n e r a l C h a l a r d a n d

F i el d M a r sh a l T h a n o m .A n o t h e r f a c t io n is p e r h a p s C I A i n s p i re d ; a G e n e r a l V i t o o n c o o p e r a t e d w i t h th e

C I A i n o p e r a t i o n s i n L a d s w h i le t h a t w a r w a s in p r o g r e ss . A n a m b i t i o u s m a n , V i t o o n

d i d n o t h e s i t a te t o p u s h F i el d M a rs h al T h a n o m o u t t h r e e y e a r s a g o. ! d o n o t t h i n kt h a t G e n e r a l V i t o o n i s i n l e ag u e w i t h G e n e r a l C h a la r d . A t t h is m o m e n t V i t o o n

s e rv e s a s d e p u t y C h i e f o f S t a f f o f t h e A r m y .

A t h i r d f a c t i o n c o n s i s t s o f t h e " C h a r t T h a i " p o l i t ic a l p a r t y . I n t h is c o n f u s i o n

o n e n e v e r k n o w s wh e r e i t s id e s b u t t h e f a c t t h a t t h e " C h a r t T h a i " p o l i t ic a l l e a d e r s

h a v e n o t b e e n n a m e d a m o n g t h e C o u n c il i n d i c a te s s o m e t h i n g . I n fa c t , i f y o u r e-

m e m b e r t h e h i s t o r y o f T h a i la n d d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d a f t e r t h e s e c o n d w o r l d w a r y o u

wi l l r e m e m b e r a d i c t a t o r c a l l e d F i e l d Ma r sh a l Ph i b u n So n g k r a m . Un d e r h i m we r e

t wo p e o p l e wh o we r e f i g h t i n g e a c h o t h e r , F i e ld M a r sh a l Sa r i t a n d Ge n e r a l Ph a o , t h e

r u t h le s s p o l i c e c h i e f . G e n e r a l Ph a o i s d e a d n o w b u t t h e " C h a r t T h a i " p a r t y i s h i s

l eg a c y a n d i s a f a c t io n w h i c h m u s t b e r e c k o n e d w i t h .

S o a t t h is m o m e n t w e d o n ' t k n o w p r ec is e ly w h a t h a p p e n e d , w e o n l y k n o w t h a t



500 JOURNAL OF CONTEMPOR AR Y ASIA

t he r e i s d i c t a to r sh ip . Th a t t he r e is a no the r g r oup o f w ou ld - be d i c t a to r s w ho migh t

p l o t a n o t h e r c o u p s e em s c l e ar . 1 d o n ' t t h i n k t h a t t h e r e w o u l d b e a n y c o u n t e r - c o u p

f r om the so - c a l l e d l e f t , f o r some t ime a nyw a y , bu t t he b i t t e r ne s s t ha t w a s e nge n -

de r e d du r ing the ma ssac r e in Th a m m a sa t U n ive r s i ty a nd a l so the f e a r o f t he d i c-

t a to r sh ip migh t ha ve the e f f e c t o f d r iv ing in te l l e c tua l s , s tude n t s a nd l a bou r e r s i n tothe jung le . T ha t is t he on ly p l a c e to h ide . A n d the r e f o r e tha t migh t i ncr e a se the

s t re n g th o f t h e c o m m u n i s t o r n o n - c o m m u n i s t in s u r g e n cy i n T h ai la n d . A n d I m y s e l f

a m a f ra id thh t t ha t s tr uggle w il l go on a nd go o n m or e in t e ns ive ly . A nd w ho is go ing

to su f f e r ? The o r d ina r y ma n in the f i e ld w i l l su f f e r , a s i n V ie tna m, a s i n La os .

T h i s is w h y I a m w o r r i e d a b o u t m y c o u n t r y . I am also w o r r i e d a b o u t m y c o u n t r y

in ma ny o the r w a ys a pa r t f r om the po l i t i c a l o r mi l i t a r y c oup . W ha t i s go ing to

h a p p e n t o F i el d M a rs ha l T h a n o m . W i l l h e c o m e o u t o f p r i e s t h o o d a n d t r y t o u n i f y

t h e a r m y ? A s o f t e n h a p p e n s i n t h e h i s to r y o f T h a il a n d , i n t h e p a s t, i n t h e A y u t h a y a

t im e , in t h e B a n g k o k t i m e , t h o s e p e o p l e w h o w a n t e d p o w e r a n d c o u l d n o t h av e i t

o f t e n w e n t i n t o t h e p r i e s t h o o d a n d w h e n o p p o r t u n i t y a rise s t h e y c o m e o u t o f t h ep r i e s thood ve r y c o nve n ie n t ly , t o b e c om e K ing o r P r ime M in is t er o r w ha te ve r . W e ll ,

t ha t i s som e th ing tha t on e has to w a tc h .

I am w o r r i e d a b o u t t h e e c o n o m i c a n d s o c ia l s y s t e m o f m y c o u n t r y . I t h i n k pa r-

l i a me n ta r y t l e moc r a c y w ha te ve r ha ppe ns , w ha te ve r i t s impe r f e c t ions , s t i l l c a n r e p -

r e se n t t he c a use s o f t he c o m m on p e op le in the f i e ld s a nd in the tow ns , t he l a bou r e r s

a n d t h e p e a s a n ts . N o w w i t h t h e d i s ap p e a r an c e o f d e m o c r a c y , w i t h t h e i n t e n t i o n o f

the P r ime M iniste r des igna te to ca r ry o n d ic ta tor sh ip a t leas t for 12 yea rs , the gap

be tw e e n the r i c h a nd the poo r w i l l w ide n . The pe op le w ho a r e in pow e r de s i r e

no th ing save the a c c um ula t ion o f pe rsona l w e a l th . The r e s t o f Tha i l a nd ' s pe op le a re

be ing l e f t t o t he i r f a t e. T h i s ha pp e ne d be f o r e , du r ing F ie ld Mar shal S a r i t ' s d i c ta to r -

sh ip , t h i s ha ppe ne d du r ing Th a no m ' s pe r iod a s P r ime Min i st er , a nd w he n he w a s

c h ie f o f t he " R e vo lu t ion a r y P a r ty " , a nd th i s a t t i t ude w i ll per s is t , I c a n as su re yo u

unde r the p r e se n t r e g ime . The i r po l i c y c ons i s t s o f t he a c c umula t ion o f w e a l th f o r

themse lves and the i r f r iends , lega l ly and i l lega l ly , mora l ly and immora l ly , and

a s a c o n s e q u e n c e o f t hi s p o l i c y t h e e c o n o m i c a nd s o c ia l p r o b l e m s o f m y c o u n t r y

w il l be c om e mor e a nd m or e a c u te .

S e c o nd ly , I t h ink tha t t he c h a nc e to de ve lop ge nu ine f r ie ndsh ip w i th ou r ne igh -

bour s w ill n o t ma te r ia l is e . The mi l i t a r y d i c t a to r sh ip w i l l c e r t a in ly t r y to m a ke i t

imposs ib l e f o r Tha i l a nd to ma ke f r i e nds w i th La os , V ie tna m, a nd C a mbod ia . O f

c ou r se , i f t h i s goe s be yo nd a c e r t a in po i rJ t, I a m a f ra id tha t t he r e migh t e ve n be

exte rna l war a s we l l a s c iv i l war . I hope tha t th is wi l l no t occur , bu t the l ike l ihood

has inc reased . And tha t i s no t ve ry n ice for Tha i land .

S o , i n sho r t , e ve n be f o r e the dus t s e t t l e s dow n , e ve n be f o r e w e c a n se e c l e a r ly

w h a t is go ing to ha p pe n , ! a m r a the r pe ss imis ti c a bou t m y c ou n t r y . 1 t h ink the r e

w i l l be in - f igh t ing a mong the a r my f a c t ions . I t h ink tha t i n su r ge nc y w i l l g r ow ,

because the insu rgents wi ll be s t ren gthe ned by s tud ents , teachers , in te l lec tua ls ,

l a b o u re r s. I b e li ev e t h a t t h e e c o n o m i c a n d s o c ia l c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e c o m m o n m a n

w ill w o r se n a nd tha t t he p r ob le ms o f t he c ou n t r y w i ll i n t e ns i f y . A n d I a lso be li eve

tha t t he r e is m or e r isk o f ou r c om ing in to c on f l i c t s w i th o u r ne ighbour s .

1 th ink 1 wi ll s top the re and h op e tha t the re wi ll be mo re opt im is t ic views

expres sed in th is ha l l.