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An Example
BEFS Team, Bioenergy and Food Security Project
Dar Es Salaam
13-14 January 2010
2BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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BEFS and Policy: An Example
Using the information generated by BEFS for biofuels decision making
3BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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Where are we under the status quo…
• No biofuel sector• In the period 2009 – 2017 Tanzania becomes
more dependant on food imports as food demand goes up faster than food production
4BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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Question:
Can cassava be used to produce ethanol in Tanzania?
5BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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A. Where?
Which areas could be developed?
6BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
Cassava: Where?
7BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
Cassava: Zoning for the bioenergy sector
8BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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B. How?
Is ethanol from cassava competitive? If so, under what set up?
9BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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Cassava cost of production (USD/litre)
Thailand and Vietnam –
0.34 to 0.40
Brazil - 0.45 - 0.47
China and India
0.60 - 0.650.37
0.47
0.42
Dried cassava from estate (60%) and outgrowers (40%)
Dried cassava from outgrowers
Fresh cassava from outgrowers
10BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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Tanzanian ethanol delivered at Rotterdam port USD per barrel
Tanzanian Ethanol delivered at Rotterdam
Brazil without
import tariff
Brazilian with import
tariff
Molasses
Sugar cane
Cassava
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
US$ per Barrel
Ethanol Cassava: dried scenario 9. Ethanol Sugar cane: Scenario 2. Ethanol Molasses: Scenario 6b, inlcuding co-product credit
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C. What will it do for my economy?
Can it bring economic growth? Can it help reduce poverty? What are the tradeoffs?
12BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
13BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
Change in poverty rate in 2015 (%)
-1 -2 -3
Poverty level impact (%)
14BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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D. Vulnerable population groups
Which segments of the population are at risk?
15BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1 2 3 4 5
What if the price of cassava increased by 10%?
• Ruvuma
• Kilimanjaro
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1 2 3 4 5
Wel
fare
ch
ang
e (%
)
Wel
fare
ch
ang
e (%
)
Quintile
Quintile
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Did cassava prices change already?
Commodity and
Marketing Level
Domestic Retail
Fresh Cassava
Domestic Retail
Dried Cassava
Domestic Maize
Wholesale Real Percent
Change Between
2003 and 2008
50 42 44
17BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
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Using BEFS to inform policy
Bioenergy Industry Development
- Land Zoning
- Industry structure
- Screening of investors to reflect above and policy priorities
Contributing toward existing development policy
- Poverty, economic growth, equity, energy access,
food security, agriculture
Additional measures
- Food security safeguards
- Awareness of international risk factor
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Concluding remarks
Structuring the industry to deliver maximum benefits with fewest risks.
Ex ante - being aware of all the issues, minimisingrisks
Ex post - having mechanisms to monitor and deal with problems
...Per se biofuels is neither good nor bad
What matters is the management of the sector...
Asante Sana!
www.fao.org/bioenergy/foodsecurity/befs
BEFS FAO
20BEFS ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND COUNTRY ACTIVITIES
Poorest Richest
Welfare
incre
ase
