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Traffic Modelling and Related Queueing Problems
Presenter: Moshe Zukerman
ARC Centre for Ultra Broadband Information Networks
EEE Dept., The University of Melbourne
Presented at EE Dept., City University of Hong Kong, 11 April, 2002
Credit: R. Addie (USQ), T. Neame (EEE, Melbourne)
1. The big picture 2. Stream traffic modelling – ground rules3. Growth and efficiency4. Long Range Dependence (LRD) and LRD vs.
SRD + traffic models review 5. Poisson Pareto Burst Process (PPBP) 6. PPBP queueing performance7. PPBP fitting 8. Fundamentals and ideas9. The Resurrection of the MMPP
OUTLINE
The Big Picture
Traffic Modelling
Queueing Theory
PerformanceEvaluation
Simulations andFast Simulations
NumericalSolutions
Formulae inClosed Form
Traffic Measurements
Link and Network Design and Dimensioning
Traffic Prediction
Of Course, there are short cuts:
Just Do It! and then see …Pros and ConsBut let’s forget about these short cuts for now …
Research in Performance Evaluation
1. Exact analytical results (models)2. Exact numerical results (models)3. Approximations4. Simulations (slow and fast)5. Experiments6. Testbeds7. Deployment and measurements8. Typically, 4-7 validate 1-3.
Black Box
Parameters Performance
The black box, can have:Traffic (model or trace), and a system or a network model, and(1) Performance Formulae, or(2) Numerical solution, or(3) Fast Simulation, or(4) Simulation
Performance evaluation tool
Black Box
Parameters Performance
• Very Fast (micro-millisecond) for congestion control
• Fast (100s milliseconds) for Connection Admission Control
• Slow (days) for network design and dimensioning
How fast should the black box be?
Traffic Modelling
Ground Rules: For a given TT, S finds an SP defined by a small number of parameters such that:
(1)TT and SP give the same performance when fed into an SSQ for any buffer size and service rate.
(2)TT and SP have the same mean and autocorr.(3)Preferably, SP SSQ is amenable to analysis.
TrafficTrace (TT)
StochasticProcess (SP)
S
“Do Not” Rules
• We Do not take retransmissions into account.
• We ignore TCP dynamics.• The aim is to dimension network so that
retransmissions will normally not be needed.
• This will be efficient as traffic, capacity and number of users increase. (why??)
Why does efficiency increase with growth?
• If load and capacity increases service rate is better- Scaling (Frank Kelly).
• Convergence to Gaussian - Central Limit Theorem (Addie) – but the convergence is slow.
),(),(max)( tttStttAtQt
Reich’s Formula:
Consider two scenarios (1 and 2). Let:A1(s,t)= A2(bs,bt) S1(t-t,t)=b S2(t-t,t)= S2(b(t-t),bt)
Q(t) = queue size at time tA(s,t)=Work arrive between s and tS(s,t)=Service capacity between s and t
Scaling
)(
)),((),(max
)),(()),((max
),(),(max)(
2
22
22
111
btQ
bttbbtSbttbbtA
btttbSbtttbA
tttStttAtQ
t
t
t
Thus, queue size is the same but served much faster!
LRD Convergence to Gaussian
0.0000001
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Buffer size, x
Pr(
Q >
x)
Gaussian
Why does LRD traffic converge to Gaussian slowly?
I will tell you later.First, let me explain the meaning of
LRD traffic and the difference between LRD and SRD.
Background• Modelling packet traffic is difficult because of its
properties• Long Range Dependence (LRD) is a widespread
phenomenon• LRD has been found in
– Ethernet traffic (Leland, et al. 94)– VBR video traffic (Garrett & Whitt 94)– Internet traffic (Paxson 95)– MAN traffic (Zukerman, et al. 95)– ATM cell traffic (Jerkins & Wang 97)– CCS Signalling Traffic (Duffy, et al. 94)
• Possible causes for LRD– Distribution of file sizes– Human behaviour– VBR video
Long Range Dependence
• A process is defined to be Long Range Dependent if its autocorrelation function R() decays slower than exponentially.
• LRD need only exist in the limit – LRD implies nothing about its short term correlations
which affect performance in small buffers
• Traditional traffic model processes are Short Range Dependent (SRD)
• In practice, LRD is difficult to distinguish from non-stationarity
•1986 Heffes and Lucantoni IEEE JSAC IEEE Best Paper Award (MMPP)•1994 Leland et al. ACM/IEEE TON IEEE Best Paper Award (LRD)•1995 Likhanov et al. INFOCOM Best Paper Award – proposed a model equivalent to the one we call Poisson Pareto Burst Process (PPBP)
Traffic Modeling: Historical Highlights
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
The Variance
v=Autocovariance Sum = The variance
Arrival Process Autocovariance (IID)
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
The Variance
v=Autocovariance Sum
Arrival Process Autocovariance SRD
For SRD
v = limn VAR [A(n)]/n
That is, for large n,VAR [A(n)] grows linearly with n.
-5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
The Variance
V = Autocovariance Sum =
Arrival Process Autocovariance (LRD)
For LRD
1,>with
)]([VAR
CnnA
LRD
SRD
IID
BUFFER SIZE
LO
SS
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
Queueing Performance Comparison
Self Similar Traffic (Ethernet) 1 Second Intervals 10 Second Intervals 60 Second Intervals
100 Second Intervals Half Hour Intervals 1 Hour Intervals
Arrivals PoissonInterval = 1
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 50 100 150
Interval = 10
300
400
500
600
700
0 50 100 150
Interval = 100
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 50 100 150
Interval = 1000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
0 50 100 150
For Poisson (IID) or SRD
VAR A t t
A tA t
tt
[ ( )]
[ ( )][ ( )]
For Poisson = 1,
Burstiness = SDE
For LRD
VAR
with > 1,
Burstiness = SDE
[ ( )]
[ ( )][ ( )]
A t t
A tA t
tt
LRD vs. SRD
Slope=1: Non-fractal (SRD)
Slope>1: Fractal (LRD)
Log V(A(t))
Log (t)
The Hurst Parameter
lim [ ( )]t A t t
H
H H
VAR
with, 2 > 0 (LRD: 2 > > 1)
The Hurst Parameter ( ):
= / 2, (LRD: 1 > > 1/ 2)
Burstiness on ALL scales? Not Really.
1)2/()]([ E
)]([ SD
1>>2with
)]([VAR
CttA
tA
ttA
Still approaches zero as t grows because < 2
MMPP (SRD)
SRD Gaussian LRD Gaussian
PPBP (LRD)
QueueingAnalysis
Done SSQ
Approx.
(AZ 92,93,94)
SSQ
Approx. (AZN 95)
Useless bounds + results here
Fast/Slow
Simulat’n
Fast + slow
Fast + slow Fast Only Slow + results here
Queueing PerformanceState of the art
The Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) ?
• Several traffic activity modes• The period of each activity mode has exponential distribution
• When in mode i – Poisson iTime
Two State MMPP Results
• Analytical results for queueing performance are available•Four parameters•Fitted to mean, variance, v, + •Numerical algorithms (Matrix Geometric) results available for n state MMPP.
Gaussian Queueing Results
• SRD: results as a function of three parameters which can be fitted to mean, variance, v•LRD: results as a function of three parameters which can be fitted to mean, variance, H.
Exponential Pareto
Poisson Pareto Burst Process (PPBP)• Total work from multiple overlapping bursts
• Burst arrivals according to a Poisson process of rate
• Burst durations are Pareto distributed
• During a burst, bit rate is constant
• All bursts have constant bit rate
Pareto Distribution
• For the Pareto distribution– Is a heavy-tailed distribution– Has infinite variance, but finite mean
,Pr{ }
1, otherwise
xx
X x
1)(
XE
21
Why the PPBP?
• Assume each user transmits at maximum capacity, or zero capacity– Each user can be represented as an on-off process
• Assume users are independent of one another• Assume duration of on times is heavy-tailed• The PPBP is a limiting case for the sum of multiple
independent heavy-tailed on-off processes – shown in Likhanov, et al. 95
Heavy Tailed Distribution
• Complementary distribution functions for exponential distribution and Pareto distribution with infinite variance. Both distributions have mean = 3
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
xP
r{x
> x
}
Exponential
Pareto
The Poisson Pareto Burst Process (PPBP)
An is total work arriving in a fixed size interval of length t
Exponential ()Pareto (, )
r
n
An
PPBP Parameter Fitting
1)(
r
AE n
21
2
3 H
6/1))1(
),(
2/((
2
22
2
)(
Fr
rnAVar
11
)3)(2)(1()2(2)3(6),(
23
F
Recall: LRD Convergence to GaussianTo fit we choose the best curve!
0.0000001
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Buffer size, x
Pr(
Q >
x)
Gaussian
Why does LRD traffic converge to Gaussian slowly?
I can tell you now.
time period
Long Bursts Short Bursts:A very good way to consider LRD
traffic
PPBP Initial Conditions
• “Steady state” process has Poisson number of active bursts at time t
• Mean number of bursts is E(D)
• Remaining duration in each burst distributed according to its forward recurrence time
Pareto Forward Recurrence Times
1 2
• Even heavier tail than ordinary Pareto
• Has infinite mean and infinite variance
xx
xx
xR1
11
,1
}Pr{
1
Forward Recurrence Times – Even Heavier Tails
• Complementary distribution functions for Pareto distribution with mean 3, and corresponding forward recurrence times
Long Bursts and Short Bursts
• Consider a PPBP over the interval (t, t + W)• At time t, there will be Bt bursts active• Each of these Bt bursts will last the entire interval with
probability
• Label the bursts present at the start and the end of the interval as long bursts
• Rest of the bursts are the short bursts
11
}Pr{W
WR
t t+W
Long burst process Short burst process
t+Wt t t+W
Long Burst – Short Burst Division
Properties• Long bursts and short bursts processes are independent
of one another.• Number of long bursts, n, is Poisson distributed with
mean E(D)Pr(R > W)• For a given interval, long bursts process is a CBR
component• Short bursts process is a correlated Poisson process
with mean rE(D)(1-Pr(R > W))• Short bursts process is not LRD
Single Server Queue• In interval n:
– An is the number of cells arriving
– C is the fixed service rate
– Yn is the net arrival process
– Qn is the amount of work in the buffer
CAY nn
1n n nQ Q Y
0,max XX
A nnVQn
CAn
Our Queueing Performance Results• Overflow probability for short burst process
depends on n, number of long bursts
• Define S(x,n) as overflow probability when number of long bursts is n
• Probability of n long bursts is Poisson with mean E(D)Pr(R > W)
• Overall overflow probability for PPBP is:
0
),(}Pr{}Pr{n
nxSnNxQ
Instability in a Simulation• Probability of n long bursts is Poisson with mean E(d)Pr(R > W)
• n long bursts leaves capacity C – nr for short bursts
• Mean arrival rate for short bursts process is r E(d)(1-Pr(R > W))• There is non-zero probability that the system will
be unstable for the duration of the simulation• Can choose simulation length, W, such that this
probability is negligible• Have demonstrated that overall impact of
instability is limited
Simulation with Random Number of Long Bursts
• Long bursts may have significant impact on simulation results
• Initialise simulation with a random number of bursts and let a random number of these be long bursts
• Will require a large number of simulations to be sure that the state space is explored thoroughly
Weighted Sum to Account for Long Bursts
• Create a process with no long initial bursts
• Simulate and find losses in systems with rate C-nr
• Sum the losses from these systems, weighted by the probability that N = n
Effect of Improved Simulations
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 50000 100000 150000 200000
Buffer threshold, x
Pr{Q >
x}Weighted Sum Simulation
Simple Simulation
IP trace fittingW = 22,000,000 x 60 simulations
Simple simulation
Quasi-Stationary Estimate
• Long burst process is constant for period W• Use existing techniques to estimate overflow
probabilities for short burst process fed into server with capacity C - nr
• As with simulation, combine estimates according to probabilities of n long bursts
• Which W gives best estimate?– Choose the W which gives highest overflow probability.
Quasi-Stationary (QS) Estimates
W
W W
W
QS
Est
imat
e fo
r W
QS
Est
imat
e fo
r W
QS
Est
imat
e fo
r W
QS
Est
imat
e fo
r W
Large Deviations Results
• Large deviations is a good approach for Gaussian queues.
• It has failed to provide useful results for LRD non Gaussian queues.
• There was an attempt to use Large deviation to obtain analytical results for the continuous time counterpart of the queue fed by PPBP (called the M/G/ process) by Tsybakov & Georganas.
• We will discuss it now.
Large Deviations Results (cont.)
• Large deviations results for queues fed by LRD sources have been derived by a number of authors.– Results only hold as , i.e. for large
buffers
• Most useful results for M/G/ input are due to Tsybakov & Georganas– They give upper and lower bounds:
x
kk BxxQAx )1()1( }Pr{
)(1 dE
rC
k
Large Deviations Results (cont.)
• A and B are constant with respect to the buffer size x.
• Note that the upper and lower bounds have the same form.
• We will compare our results against these bounds.
kk BxxQAx )1()1( }Pr{
)(1 dE
rC
k
Comparison of ResultsProb
{Q >
}
Second Set of ResultsProb
{Q >
}
Quasi-Stationary Estimate
• Previously have used repeated simulation to fit final parameter
• Using the estimate, fitting is faster and more reliable
• Quasi-stationary value is still only an estimate– Most accurate when is large– for PPBP fitted to real data is usually small
Reliability is questionable
Modelling Measured Traffic
• PPBP has 4 parameters– Burst arrival rate – Rate of work per burst r– 2 Pareto parameters, and
• Parameter Fitting– Can fit r, , to measured mean, variance, H– Can produce PPBPs with same r, , values which
give very different queueing performance resultsFitting is vital to give a model which predicts the
performance of real traffic
PPBP Convergence to Gaussian
0.0000001
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Buffer size, x
Pr(
Q >
x)
Gaussian
Good News! - Fitting the PPBP to Real Traffic
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Buffer threshold, x (packets)
Pr(
Q >
x)
IP Trace Gaussian
0.00E+00
5.00E+06
1.00E+07
1.50E+07
2.00E+07
2.50E+07
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Lag, k
Aut
ocov
aria
nce
PPBP model (from analysis)
PPBP model (from simulation)
Trace
Autocovariance Fitting
How Are We Doing?
• Our aim was to find a stochastic process with the following properties:Defined by a small number of parameters
• PPBP has only 4 parameters
– If the parameters of the process are fitted using measurable statistics of an actual traffic stream then
• 3 of 4 parameters fitted to measurable statistics• Fitting the 4th parameter can now be done systematicallyThe first and second order statistics of the model will match
those of the traffic stream
How Are We Doing? (cont.)
If fed through an SSQ the performance results of the model will accurately predict those of the real traffic stream in an identical SSQ. This should be true for a wide range of buffer sizes and service rates.
•PPBP does wellIf performance results can be calculated analytically, so much the better
•Quasi-stationary estimate provides an accurate analytic estimate
Summary (PPBP)
• Described the Poisson Pareto Burst Process (PPBP)• Long bursts may have a significant impact on PPBP
simulation results.• We can factor long bursts into simulations.• Quasi-stationary analysis gives a reasonable estimate
of the queueing performance of the PPBP.• Using quasi-stationary estimate, reliable fitting of the
PPBP to real traffic streams is possible.
Speculation: MMPP ResurrectionAnti-thesis??
• The PPBP at this stage is not amenable to state dependent queueing analysis.
• Such analysis is needed in many Telecommunications systems.
• MMPP or other Markovian models are amenable to such analyses.
• I will present now intuitive arguments for the resurrection of MMPP.
Single Server Queue Realization
G/G/1
Unfinished Work Distribution
Reich’s Formula (1958)
P V T P A B Tw
ii
w
( ) max ( )
1
1
Ai= work arrives during interval iB= Service capacity during interval i
Again, our SSQ Realization:The relevant correlation duration is from the beginning of the last busy period.Indeed, LRD Longer busy periods.
G/G/1
BUFFER
But if we introduce a buffer …???
G/G/1/2
The buffer breaks long busy periods to many short ones!
And we may not need to consider LRD in our traffic modelling.
Queueing Performance Comparison
LRD
SRD
IID
BUFFER SIZE
LO
SS
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
YL
OG
LRD
SRD
IID
BUFFER SIZELO
SS
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
The resurrection: SRD (MMPP?) as a model for LRDL
OG
LRD vs. SRD
Slope=1: Non-fractal (SRD)
Slope>1: Fractal (LRD)
Log V(A(t))
Log (t)
The resurrection:SRD (MMPP?) as a model for LRD
Slope=1: Non-fractal (SRD)
Slope>1: Fractal (LRD)
Log V(A(t))
Log (t)
There are arguments for resurrection of the MMPP asA traffic model.
Conclusion
Two approaches:(1)PPBP (State Dependent (?)) (2)MMPP (Accurate traffic model (?))
The Game goes on