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The Operational Environment2010-2025

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Agenda

Overview of the Operational Environment Global/Regional Trends Key Characteristics An Era of Persistent Conflict Hybrid Threat Emerging Nature of Threat Operations Threat Overview Final Thoughts

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What is the Operational Environment?

• Roles, missions and doctrine . . . Concept Development

• Requirements for personnel, materiel,

training and education, organizations, etc . . . Requirements Determination

• Perspective on potential catalysts and drivers for operations . . . Capability Development

• Thinking, planning, decisions, selection of actions, feedback . . . Analysis of Alternative Futures

• Intellectual and philosophical tone for how the Army views conflict . . . Leader Development

The OE underpins the Army’s efforts in leader, concept and capabilities development and support to training to prepare the right people, with the right skills and

capabilities, at the right time and place for today and tomorrow

•JP 1-02: An Operational Environment is the “composite of the conditions, circumstances, and influences that affect the employment of military forces and bear on the decisions of commanders”

What it does:

What it is:

•Describes present and future characteristics and variables that will affect how leaders will organize, train and employ forces

Impacts on TRADOC:

The Operational Environment

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…Ideology

60% in urban areas by 2030 … 90% of pop growth in 2030 in developing countries …

Youth Bulge in Africa, Middle East

…Environmental Fragility

~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … dual use chemical/bio

weapons

Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth… 2.8 billion below poverty by 2025

…Shifting Demographics

Competing cultures challenge state authority…Hezbollah’s perceived legitimacy

…Weapons of Mass Destruction

World food cost up 45%... Energy demand increasing 1.6%/yr … 450M

severe water shortage

…Globalization …InformationThe Operational Environment

…Technology

70% of S&T research conducted outside of U.S. … DIY UAVs for < $1,000

Media microscope, billions of connected people … Social Media phenomenon …

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Key Characteristics

Among local populations with unfamiliar cultures, often in the midst humanitarian crisis …

In urban settings or harsh, inaccessible lawless areas …

With an absence of local security or an effective local government … containing competing factions locked in internal conflict …

Against hybrid, full spectrum and networked enemies embedded in the local population and possessing a wide range of advanced technologies and military capabilities, including possible WMD …

Employing adaptive and asymmetric combinations of traditional, irregular and criminal tactics …

Direct and indirect challenges to access …

Tied to a sophisticated information campaign …

Creating situations demanding long duration operations at extended distances and requiring inter-agency and non-military tools to resolve…

And conducted under the unblinking eye of an omnipresent media, potentially giving local events global significance …

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Past Present …Beyond 2028In 5,560 years of recorded human

history there have been 14,531 wars…95% of man’s recorded

history has been spent in conflict…2.6135 wars a year

365 conflicts in 2009… 31 conflicts fought involving

massive violence… seven wars and 24 severe crises

• Fought in the Global Commons

• Terrain holds broader significance than military advantage alone

• Violence is calculated on how it affects control of the population

• The enemy cannot be destroyed in a conventional sense

• Characterized by a continually changing mix of armed forces and entities

•Local problems are global problems

Confrontation is the NORM…there is less of a distinction between war and peace … different levels

of conflict

An Era of Persistent Conflict

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The Nature of Hybrid Threats

Armed Forces are created to meet national/organizational needs in local/regional settings against neighboring states or internal threats

U.S. forces dominate conventional, local or regionally focused armed forces

The force the adversary needs to meet local requirements – is not the force it needs to challenge the U.S.

ADAPTIVE APPLICATIONS

Creative

Opportunity

Defensive

Tailorable

TRADITIONAL

DoctrineCapabilities

Irregular

Strategy

UncertaintyCombat Developments

US DominanceNew Technology/Rapid Adaptation

“Hybrid”

Organization

Crime

Extremist

Seek advantage through regular + irregular forces, conventional +

unconventional, all unified in purpose

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Adversaries in 2020 & beyond

United States

Reduced Dominance

GainingDominance

ACCESS LIMITATION

OPERATIONAL SHIELDING

STRIKE

STRATEGIC ATTACK

SYSTEMS WARFARE

RAPID TACTICAL TRANSITIONS

OPERATIONAL EXCLUSION

STRATEGIC PRECLUSION

Dom

inan

ce

Time

LdrLdr

IntelIntel MovMov//ManMan

FiresFires

SustainSustainProtectProtect

C2C2

Information

LdrLdr

IntelIntel MovMov//ManMan

FiresFires

SustainSustainProtectProtect

C2C2

Information

Emerging Nature of Threat Operations

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Threat Overview

Direct Fire

Cheap, plentiful, attacks soft targets using masking and surprise.

Artillery

Accuracy, range and lethality Increase, Dwell time decreases.

ADA

Active engagement of UAVs and PGMs.

IEDs/Mines

Continue to evolve, missions will overlap. Iconic systemattacks.

ATGM

Lethal, Available, Day/Night, Engageout to 7km.

CBRNE

Difficult to detector defeat.

Armor

Frontal overmatch, Add-ons prolific, Low-observable technology

Countermeasures

Obscurants cheap/available,APS cost decreasing, integration difficult, field expedientD&D widespread.

Insider the key CNO threat, multipurpose and GPS deception jammers, RF weapons available for close-in (unpredictable effects).

Information Operations

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Final Thoughts

Big Threat

Power Dynamic

Adversaries

World Order

Military Engagements

Nature of Warfare

Beyond 2028

Past Present

Multi-polar

Integrated Attack

Uni-polarBipolar

M.A.D.

Combinations

Terrorism

CellularHybridHierarchical

Power Projection Deterrence

“Conventional”

Shadow Organizations

Nation States

Emerging non-State

Counterinsurgency

Traditional Adaptations