TRADING SEMINAR

Raising Investment Standards

DISCLAIMER Raising Investment Standards

Leveraged foreign exchange and options trading carries a significant level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.

You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange and option trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The contents provided in this seminar are subject to change at any time without notice.

There is no guarantee that the systems, trading techniques, trading methods, indicators or other information presented at this seminar will result in profits or not result in losses. The content is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as a trading recommendation.

I. The Basics

II. Trading Tools

III. Money Management

FX TRADING

What is FX?

Characteristics High Volume: USD 4 trillion/day

- 80% speculation High Liquidity: Tight Fixed Spread High Leverage: 1:100 Trading Hours: 24/6 Accessible Purely Electronic Short Selling without any rule Fits Technical Analysis Studies

FX Market

FX as an Asset Class

Major CurrenciesUSD,EUR,CHF,GBP,CAD,JPY,AUD,NZD

Traded in Pairs: EUR/USD, AUD/USD…

More Combinations EUR/GBP….

FX Market

Tick Size

0.1 Pip : the smallest price increment in FX trading

Pip Value : depends upon the pair being traded and its price

FX Market

FX Market

Leverage

Loss and Recovery SimulationInitial Capital: $ 10.000

Loss 1:1 1:51% $9,900.00 $9,500.001% $9,801.00 $9,050.001% $9,702.99 $8,604.501% $9,605.96 $8,162.95

Recovery 4% 22%

FX Movers

Global Macro

Key Economic Indicators

Interest Rates Differentials

Risk Appetite V/S Risk Aversion

M&A Activity

Auction Results

Advantages Of AKSYS Trading Platform

Most competitive fixed spread Commission-free trading Swap free trading No slippage Minimum of 10,000 trading unit Streamlined dealing on real-time prices Place orders inside the spread Hedging capabilities No debit balance Built in back-office Round the clock help desk :

Technical analysis Macro views Execution

AKSYS Trading Platform

Order types :

Market Orders

Order Types :

Pending Orders

Understanding The Terminal

Money Management & Trading Strategies

Trading Frequency

Trading Size

Trader Behavior

The Fallacy Of Winning Streak

Trading Frequency

High:

Always in the market

Hit & Run

Between 10 to 30 trades per day

Cut all accumulated losses when breaking a trading range

Trading Frequency

Low :

Opportunistic

Swing Positioning

Between 2 to 3 trades per week Trailing Stop Loss

Trading Size

On a fixed USD stop loss value basis

Consistency

Check your risk level

AMOUNT OF EQUITY LOST

RETURN REQUIRED TO RESTORE

INITIAL VALUE

25 % 33 %50 % 100 %75 % 400 %90 % 1000 %

Trader Behavior

Trend

Buy / Sell continuous patterns

Counter Trend

Sell Resistance

Buy Support

The Fallacy Of Winning Streak

The trader has a 75% winning tradesbut ends up losing money.

Trade P&L pips1 + 30 pips2 + 25 pips3 + 35 pips4 - 110 pips

Total - 20 pips

The Fallacy Of Winning Streak

Trade P&L pips1 - 30 pips2 + 50 pips3 - 35 pips4 + 60 pips

Total + 45 pips

The trader has a 50% winning tradesand ends up winning money.

Adding To A Winning Position

EUR/USD:

Position Risk Risk Vs Position

size

Market move

Short 20k at 1.5020

200 $ 1 %

Adjust stop on entry for 20k

and add 20k at 1.4970

200 $ 0.5 % - 50 pips

Adjust stop on entry for 40k

and add 20k at 1.4920

200 $ 0.33 % - 50 pips

Technical Analysis

What is Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is defined as the art of forecasting the market trend direction through analyzing the current and historical price action and projecting it into the future by using different tools.

Historical Glance

Homma Munehisa(1724-1803) Charles Henry Dow (1851-1902) Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871- 1948) William Delbert Gann 1878-1955)

The Use Of Technical Analysis

It provides:

The time to enter the market

Decision: Long, Short, or Not to enter

The Stop Loss Level (invalidation of the scenario or bias)

The Time Frame Of The Trend

The Profit Taking Level (Trade Objective)

All these factors are exploited in product structuring in order to estimate the product maturity (duration of the trend) and the bias of the product (direction of the trend) barrier level (support resistance).

Technical Analysis Tools Explained

The Three Major Factors For Technical Analysis are:

Time

Pattern

Price

TIME

Time is divided into five categories:

Dynamic Projections/Retracements/Alternations form tops and bottoms

Fixed Time Cycles

Seasonal Cycles

Astrologic Cycles

Gann Squares and Fibonacci Numbers

Examples

Swings relation based of the Fibonacci ratios to achieve a time cluster for a top

Fixed CycleGBP/USD daily chart: Every 12 trading days a bottom is marked even though is adown or an uptrend.

Seasonal Cycles Known as “anniversary dates”: you choose a specific date or period for a specific chart and check it historically to know the behavior of the market at this period.

Application of the Fibonacci series number and ratios between bottom and tops on time analysis

PATTERNS

Patterns are divided into three categories:

Classical

One to Three Bars

Elliott Waves

Classical Patterns These patterns are discovered by observing and studying the historical charts data Their names often reflect the shape of the formation such as the Double Top, Double Bottom,

Head and Shoulders Top, Flags and so on. Example:

An inverted head & shoulder that reverse this daily bearish trend.

A continuation wedge in a daily Bearish trend A continuation wedge in a daily Bearish trend

One to Three Bar Patterns

These reversal bars are telling you that the trend for that time frame has run out of gas and that no new buyers or sellers are coming into the market.

Outside Key Reversal

Key Reversal

Reversal Bar

Snap-Back Reversal

Signal Bar

Gap Signal

Reversal Confirmation

Example: An hourly up trend with a reversal bar pattern at each bottom.

Reversal Bar Pattern at each top on the Euro Hourly Chart .

Elliott Waves

There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move)

An impulsive wave (1, 3, 5), which goes with the main trend, always shows five waves in its pattern

Corrective waves within a five wave sequence are waves two and four.

Once a five wave pattern completes, the entire sequence should becorrected by a pattern of either three waves (ABC )

PRICE

Wave patterns of a similar degree are related to each other by

Fibonacci ratios.

Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical foundation for the

Elliott Wave Theory.

The challenging part of Elliott Wave Theory is figuring out the

relativity of the wave structure.

Important price levels will be found when a narrow price zone is

projected from several different ratios and from several different

degrees.

Here is a squaring between time and price based on Fibonacci ratios that confirm the count of Elliott wave

Minor Factors

Oscillators:

Moving Average Convergence Divergence “MACD”

Relative Strength Index: RSI

The Oscillators are used to indicate:

Overbought and Oversold Areas

Divergences

Moving Averages:

The Moving Averages are used to indicate:

The direction of the trend

Dynamic Supports and Resistances

Putting all together:

Here (EUR chart above) is a combination of all technical tools described before:

Time: Fixed Cycle Bottom vs. Top that indicates a time zone for a top.

Patterns:Elliott Wave count for four degree (lesser degree confirm the

higher ones)One bar reversal at each bottom to confirm the new up move.

Price: Price relations Elliott Wave Theory using Fibonacci Ratios to marker

objectives: 100% 161% form WI, 38.2% from WI-III, 100% from last swing projected from the bottom of WIV.

EMA: Exponential moving averages (50,66,252) acting as dynamic

supports and resistance.

RSI and MACD: Reaching a repeated historically level that confirm the reversal bar

at each bottom.

After:

Since 13 June 2007 the EUR is trending upward forming a 5 waves cycle (blue degree) confirmed by the lesser ones (green & red). Forming on the highs, a potential double top accompanied by a clear divergences on both MACD (39.19.9)& RSI (14) on daily and weekly charts & a confirmed Head & Shoulder at the right top.

Over a year this upward rally was sustained by the 133 EMA (green dotted line) and the Red trend line that are breached 2 times.

The sideways range since 23 April 2008 has overbalanced in Price and Time the similar formation that started 23Nov 2007 ended 7 Feb 2008.

All these technical indications suggest that the EUR is suffering at these levels to test bearish first support 1.5285 (neckline of double top + W4) that will squeeze the market on its break at least 750 pips gradually 1.4968, 1.4652, 1.4311

What invalid the bearish bias is the break of 1.6038 otherwise every upward rally is considered as a selling opportunity.

GBP/USD hourly chart shows a market rhythm (equality between the impulsive down moves and the corrective up ounces)

CONCLUSION

Technical analysis is a tactical method that generates substantial profits. The selection of the trade is done by the combination of the different

technical methods and dimensions.

Besides, technical analysis is a decision tool for asset allocators, product structures, hedge fund managers for its high probability of accuracy in market timing and opportunity spotting.

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Raising Investment Standards