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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201190
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
10/29
BROAD TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX*
200-day moving average
* Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, UK, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, and Columbia.Source: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 1.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201165
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
10/29
MAJOR TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX*
200-day moving average
* Major index countries whose currencies are included are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland,Australia, and Sweden. The Euro Area includes Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium/Luxembourg, Ireland,Spain, Austria, Finland, Portugal & Greece.Source: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
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Figure 2.
- Trade-Weighted Dollar -
Page 1 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 4.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
11/1
EUROPE______$/Euro
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
11/1
UNITED KINGDOM________________$/Pound
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201111.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
11.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
11/1
SWEDEN_______Krona/$
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112.01.91.81.71.61.51.41.31.21.11.0.9.8
2.01.91.81.71.61.51.41.31.21.11.0.9.8
11/1
SWITZERLAND_____________Swiss Franc/$
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
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- US$ Forex Rates: Europe -
Page 2 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 5.
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012160
140
120
100
80
60
40
11/1
JAPAN______Yen/$
200-day moving average
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20128.4
8.0
7.6
7.2
6.8
6.4
10/29CHINA(Yuan/$)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
11/1
AUSTRALIA__________A$/US$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20126
5
4
3
2
11/1
MALAYSIA_________Ringgit/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
11/1
SOUTH KOREA______________Won/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201218000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
11/1
INDONESIA__________Rupiah/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20121.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
11/1SINGAPORE___________S$/US$
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201260
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
11/1THAILAND_________Baht/$
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- US$ Forex Rates: Asia -
Page 3 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 6.
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20121.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
.8
11/1
CANADA_______C$/US$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201216
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
11/1
MEXICO_______Peso/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20124.6
4.1
3.6
3.1
2.6
2.1
1.6
1.1
.6
.1
11/1
BRAZIL______Real/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
11/1
ARGENTINA__________Peso/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
11/1
CHILE_____Peso/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120
1
2
3
4
5
11/1VENEZUELA___________Bolivar/$
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20123200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
11/1
COLOMBIA__________Peso/$
____200-day moving average.
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20123.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
11/1
PERU_____New Sol/$
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- US$ Forex Rates: Americas -
Page 4 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 7.
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012175200225250275300325350375400425450475500
11/1
CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX(1967=100)
200-day ma
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012.2
.6
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
11/1
CRB FUTURES PRICE: HEATING OIL*(dollar per gallon)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
10/26
CRB SPOT PRICE INDEXES(1967=100)
Raw Industrials
Metals
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20121
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
11/1
CRB FUTURE PRICE: NATURAL GAS*(dollar per MMBTU)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201210
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
11/1
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURE PRICE*(dollars per barrel)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012.9
1.5
2.1
2.7
3.3
3.9
4.5
10/20
GASOLINE PUMP PRICE*(weekly, dollars per gallon)
* Nearby contract.Source: Haver Analytics
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- Commodity Prices -
Page 5 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 8.
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
11/1
CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS(daily, 1967=100)
200-day ma
Includes copper scrap, lead scrap,steel scrap, tin and zinc
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
11/1
STAINLESS STEEL SCRAP(dollars per gr. ton)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
11/1
COPPER SCRAP PRICE(dollars per pound)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120
500
1000
1500
2000
10/26
TIN(cents per pound)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012100
200
300
400
500
11/1
COPPER NEARBY FUTURE PRICE(cents per bushel)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201230
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
11/1
ZINC(cents per pound)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120
50
100
150
200
250
10/26
LEAD, RN NA SOLDER(cents per pound)
Source: Haver Analytics.
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- Commodity Prices (cont) -
Page 6 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012225
400
575
750
925
1100
1275
145011/1GOLD SPOT PRICE
(dollars per troy ounce)
200-day ma
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012350
550
750
950
1150
1350
1550
1750
11/1
SOYBEAN NEARBY FUTURE PRICE(cents per bushel)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20124
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2611/1SILVER SPOT PRICE
(dollars per troy ounce)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012150200250300350400450500550600650700750800
11/1
CORN NEARBY FUTURE PRICE(cents per bushel)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
11/1
PLATINUM SPOT PRICE(dollars per troy ounce)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201220030040050060070080090010001100120013001400
11/1
WHEAT NEARBY FUTURE PRICE(cents per bushel)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120
500
1000
1500
10/26
PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE($/troy oz)
Source: Haver Analytics.*Nearby contract, closing price.
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- Commodity Prices (cont) -
Page 7 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201110
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
11/1
CRB FUTURES PRICE: LIGHT CRUDE OIL*(dollars per barrel, daily)
200-day moving average
* Nearby contract, closing price. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange
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Figure 10.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
11/1
CRB FUTURES PRICE: NATURAL GAS*(dollars per million BTU, daily)
200-day moving average
* Nearby contract, closing price. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange.
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Figure 11.
- Oil & Gas Prices -
Page 8 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-5
0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15
Sep
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX: OIL FIELD & GAS FIELD EQUIPMENT(yearly percent change)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 12.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2
4
6
8
0
2
4
6
8
Sep
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX: INDUSTRIAL PUMPS(yearly percent change)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 13.
- Producer Price Index -
Page 9 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Oct
US ROTARY RIGS(number of rigs)
Oil & Gas
Gas
Oil
Source: Baker Hughes.
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Figure 14.
- Rig Count -
Page 10 / November 2, 2010 / Presentation Charts for Tyco www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
