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Trade Economics of Olives and Olive Oil: Data and Issues
Sacramento Valley Olive Day
Orland, July 6, 2018
Daniel A. Sumner and William A. Matthews University of California Agricultural Issues Center
Motivation, Orientation, and Overview • International agricultural trade is in the headlines these days and
concerns abound…what does trade turmoil mean for farms? • Economics underlie almost every decision in agriculture and
international trade affects both costs and returns • Import access to the US affects farm input costs, and competition in
domestic markets. Access for US exports affects output demand and prices for most California farm products.
• We know more open markets have been broadly good for economic growth and incomes over the past 70 years, but governments are often motivated to limit market access and impose import taxes
• Olives are different from most California commodities in that exports are minimal, while import competition is robust
Index of US Olive Acres, Yield and Total Production, 1998-2017
---
2.5 1998: Acres = 35,300 Yield = 2.55 tons/acre 2.0 Production= 90,000 tons
1.5
1.0 2017: Acres = 36,000
0.5 Bearing Acres Yield = 5.34 tons/acre Total Production Production= 192,300 tons Yields per Acre
0.0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: USDA ERS
� �
120 Utilization of US Produced Olives, 2007-2017
Canned Crushed for Oil
Volu
me
of O
live
(1,0
00 sh
ort t
ons)
100
80
60
40
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: USDA ERS
0
I • � Source of Available Supply of Olive Oil Marketed in US
Oliv
e O
il Su
pply
(mill
ion
poun
ds)
Imports US Production 800 31 352213700 7600
500
400
300
200
100
0
591 729 710696 687
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: USDA ERS
2017 US Olive Oil Imports by
Source Total $1.44 billion
($millions)
Argentina $63.9 Turkey $63.8
EU $1,192.0 Tunisia $61.9
Chile $33.4
Rest of World $31.5
Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 US Olive Oil Imports by
Olive Oil Grade Total $1.44 billion
($millions) Virgin $36
Extra Virgin $1,048
Refined $331
Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 US Extra Virgin Olive Oil
Imports by Source Total $1.05 billion
($ million)
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Rest of World $21.6
Turkey $23.2
Chile $33.2
EU $864.5
Argentina $61.2
Tunisia $44.4
2017 US Extra Virgin Olive Oil Imports From
EU by Country Total $864.5 million
Rest of EU ($ million) $3.3
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Italy $447.7
Spain $374.3
Greece $39.2
2017 US Olive Oil Exports
by Destination Country
Total $28.2 million ($ million)
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Rest of World $6.5
EU $3.3
Canada $11.0 Taiwan $1.8
Japan $0.6
Mexico $5.0
Farm trade news has mostly about lost exports • Almost all the news about farm trade this year has been about the
treat of trade policy turmoil has been causing for exports • This makes sense because most major US commodities are export
dependent and the countries targeted for new US trade barriers are the largest import markets
• Commodities are dairy products, beef, pork, tree nuts, wine, fresh vegetables as well corn and soybeans are highly vulnerable
• The threats and actions change every few days and sometimes solutions seem close, but as of this week, new US tariffs are in place and retaliation has begun
• There may be some good result envisioned but for agriculture the costs are already real.
Source of Available Supply of Table Olives Marketed in US
� �
Volu
me
of T
able
Oliv
es (m
illio
n po
unds
) 400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
109
212
US Production Imports 343
180
232
77
138
234 234 225
2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17 Source: USDA ERS
I- -
US Table Olive Import Value and Volume, 2008-2017 $425 180 $415
Value Volume (MTs) 170$405 $395 160 $385 $375 150 $365
140$355 $345 130 $335 $325 120
Valu
e of
Impo
rts (
$1 m
illio
n)
Volu
me
of Im
port
s (1,
000
MTs
)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Unit Value of US Table Olive Imports, 2008-2017
Uni
t Val
ue p
er M
etri
c To
n $3,200
$3,000
$2,800
$2,600
$2,400
$2,200
$2,000
Source: US Dept of Commerce
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017 US Table Olive Imports
by Source Total $387 million
($ million)
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Morocco $24.8EU $337.3
Egypt $7.0 Turkey $5.5
Peru $4.2
Rest of World $8.4
2017 US Table Olive Imports
From EU by Country Total $382.2 million
($ million)
Greece $145.8
Spain $204.8 Portugal
$6.9
Italy $21.7
Rest of EU $3.1 Source: US Dept of Commerce
2017 U.S. Table Olive Imports by
Product Tariff Line Description
Total $387 million ($million)
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Broken or sliced salad style Green
Oives, Container less than 8KG $21
All other trariff Lines $126
Whole Not Pitted Green
Oives $35
Whole Stuffed Green Olives,
Containter less than 8KG $102
Sliced Not-Green Olives, Canned $61 Whole
Pitted Not-Green
Olives, Not Canned $43
2017 US Table Olive Exports by
Destination Total $12.4 million
($ million)
Source: US Dept of Commerce
Canada $4.2
Japan $2.2China $0.9
Korea $0.9
Mexico $0.7
EU $0.7
Rest of World $2.8
Rest of World 548.3
2016/17 Global Table Olive
Production by Source
Total 2.7 million metric tons (1,000 MTs)
Source: International Olive Council
Spain 490.8
Egypt 500.0
Turkey 433.0Algeria 234.0
Greece 204.0
Syria 190.0
Morocco 100.0
Rest of World 116
2016 Global Table Olive Exports by Source
Total 868.4 thousand tons (1,000 tons)
Source: GTA Database
Spain 315
Greece 146
Egypt 67
Turkey 57
Morocco 99
Argentina 67
Thank you aic.ucdavis.edu
