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April 2013 - UNICEF Social and Civic Media Section, DOC, NYHQ / Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States
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UNICEF & Anti-Vaccination Trends
Tracking anti-vaccine sentiment in Eastern European social media networks April 2013 Social and Civic Media Section, DOC, NYHQ Regional Office for Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States To see the working paper and other resources, please click here For comments and questions, please email [email protected]
The need for social media research
Social media is a global phenomenon.
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Purpose: to better understand anti-vaccination conversations & factors that affect parental decisions in Eastern Europe.
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To reach this goal, we developed questions to guide the research.
– Why parents are refusing vaccinations?
– What are the concerns about vaccines?
– What are their ideas/perceptions?
– Who is influencing the discussion?
– Which networks are being used?
– Where are they located?
– How to respond?
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The monitoring approach
Social media conversations offer the depth of qualitative research and the sample sizes of quantitative research in real time. – How do we detect digital smoke signals?
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Using various types of metrics & data collection
Volume Channels Engagement Sentiment Analysis
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Research findings will have real world applications.
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Important questions to keep in mind
– How can we ensure ethical consideration regarding privacy?
– What pieces of data are valid and useful to the research?
– How do we apply this research in a greater context considering the limitations?
Social Media Research: Methodology
Phase 1 – Identify goals – Gather research – Identify topics – Identify languages – Set up tracking
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We structured the research into four phases.
Spotlight Pages – UNICEF Networks: Facebook, Twitter, YouTube – Regional Pages: USA, Russia, Romania, Poland
Search Queries – UNICEF + Vaccines – WHO + Vaccines – CDC + Vaccines – Anti-vaccination (general)
Language – English – Polish – Russian – Romanian
Phase 3 – Extract & compile data – Quantitative & qualitative
analyses – Research influencers – Review & translate verbatim
mentions
Phase 4 – Gather insights from data
analyses – Synthesize non-English
insights – Construct the final report – Make strategic
recommendations based on key insights
Phase 2 – Scrub data – Refine queries – Identify topics – Add new queries to
segment data by topic
Query Topics – Side effects – Efficacy – Unnecessary – Religion/Ethics – Distrust
Government/Industries
– Chemicals/Unnatural
– Western Plot – Developmental
disabilities – Pakistan ban
We analyzed conversations from 22,000 people across social media.
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From May to July 2012, 22,000 people participated in social media discussions about vaccination refusal in English, Russian, Romanian and Polish.
The Global Conversation
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Men Women
Gender
Blog
YouTube
Forum
News
Other*
7% 3%
39% 35%
26%
24%
19%
18%
7% 17%
2% 2%
Men Women
Age
60+
50 - 60
40 - 50
30 - 40
20 - 30
10 - 20
Young women say more in the global anti-vaccination conversation on Facebook.
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
2%
2%
3%
3%
82%
Pakistan
Ireland
India
Mexico
Germany
Canada
Australia
Panama
UK
USA
Locations
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Anti-vaccination discussions typically occur in the US on Blogs, Facebook, & Forums.
Blog 47%
Facebook 25%
Forum 14%
News 5%
Twitter 5%
Tumblr 3%
YouTube 1%
Networks
Positive 6%
Neutral 51%
Negitive 43%
Sentiment
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English is the most common language used to discuss anti-vaccination followed by Polish & Russian.
English 88%
Polish 8%
Russian 3%
Romanian 1%
Anti-vaccination discussions
0%
Polish 67%
Russian 25%
Romanian 8%
Non-English discussions
Blog 86%
Facebook 8%
News 6%
Twitter 0%
Forum 0%
Tumblr 0%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
2%
2%
3%
3%
82%
Pakistan
Ireland
India
Mexico
Germany
Canada
Australia
Panama
UK
USA
English
Blog 47%
Facebook 25%
News 5%
Twitter 5%
Forum 14%
YouTube 1%
Tumblr 3%
0.5%
0.5%
1%
1%
1%
1%
5%
5%
15%
65%
Uzbekistan
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Netherlands
Germany
USA
Ukraine
Russia
Russian
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Blogs allow anti-vaccination discussions to reach outside countries & populations.
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
1%
3%
9%
11%
74%
UK
Portugal
Bulgaria
Colombia
Italy
Germany
Moldova
USA
Romania
Romanian
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
1%
2%
3%
4%
15%
71%
India
Czech Republic
Denmark
Indonesia
France
UK
Netherlands
Germany
USA
Poland
Polish
Blog 65% Facebook
25%
News 2%
Twitter 24%
Forum 4%
Blog 85%
Facebook 25%
News 1%
YouTube 1%
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Blogs, Forums, & Facebook facilitate the most engaging discussions about anti-vaccination.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Blog News Forum Facebook Twitter Reddit YouTube Tumblr Other*
Posts
Interactions
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Opportunities exist for UNICEF to join organic anti-vaccination discussions.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29
UNICEF/WHO/CDC + Vaccines Anti-Vaccination
CDC Announces Autism Increase
CA Bill AB2109
CDC: Measles Incidence increased in 2011
VT Debates Ending “Philosophical Exemption”
WA Increase in Whooping Cough
Mayim Bialik on NPR’s Science Friday does not vaccinate her kids
Autism One Conference 2012 in Chicago
CDC’s Vaccines For Children study shows vaccines improperly stored
Dr. Oz admits not vaccinating kids, while advocating for vaccines.
Whooping Cough Outbreak in OR
Mike Huckabee supports Pakistan to ban polio vaccine.
Pampers supports UNICEF giving tetanus shots.
Immunization Week in Zimbabwe
Freedom Fest 2012 in Las Vegas
CDC: Whooping Cough Epidemic worst in 50 years, calling for adult vaccinations.
Anti-vaccination Arguments
27%
6%
24%
15%
1%
14%
4% 9%
English
Religion/Ethics
Side effects
Distrust Government/Industries
Toxins/Unnatural
Unnecessary
Developmental Disabilities
Efficacy
Western Plot
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The prevalence of anti-vaccination topics shows the specific concerns associated with each population.
0%
65%
32%
3%
Romanian
11%
35%
7% 6% 7%
19%
3%
12%
Polish
98%
2%
Russian
VACCINUL ANTI -HPV UCIDE!!! O elevă de 14 ani din Marea Britanie a murit după ce i-a fost administrată o doză de vaccin împotriva cancerului de col uterin: Vaccinuri inutile si periculoase: “Gardasil (Silgard) şi Cervarixul sunt două vaccinuri folosite împotriva virusului HPV (şi nu a cancerului de col uterin cum ni se spune)!
HPV vaccine KILL! A student of 14 years in Britain died after being administered a dose of vaccine against cervical cancer: unnecessary and dangerous vaccines "Gardasil (Gardasil) and Cervarix are two vaccines against HPV (not cancer cervical we are told)!
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Romanian Examples
The proponents of the vaccination theory: Jenner and Pasteur's followers - the Vaccine Mafia
In the United States, it is widely known across media channels that over 5,000 families believe that their children's autism was caused by this vaccine, however the actual number is certainly much greater. Such legislative decisions against ROR include a 90,000 pound settlement to a little boy called Robert Fletcher for cerebral lesions as well as a 1.5 million dollar settlement to Hannah Poling's parents who started showing autism signs the day after receiving six different vaccines including ROR.
Недавно проведённое большое исследование подтверждает результаты других независимых наблюдений, где сравнивались привитые и непривитые дети. Все они показывают, что вакцинированные дети болеют от 2 до 5 раз чаще, чем невакцинированные дети. Source: http://epidemnews.ru Вакцинация против пандемического
гриппа H1N1, известного также как "свиной", может приводить к развитию синдрома Гийена-Барре, острого полирадикулита у взрослых, свидетельствуют данные канадских ученых, опубликованные в журнале JAMA. Source: www.rutoday.ru
A recent large study confirms the results of other independent observations, which compared vaccinated and unvaccinated children. They all show that vaccinated children suffer from 2 to 5 times more often than non-vaccinated children.
Vaccination against pandemic influenza H1N1, also known as "swine", can lead to the development of Guillain-Barré syndrome, acute poliradikulita in adults, according to the Canadian researchers, published in the journal JAMA.
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Russian Examples
In Poland, no one was vaccinated, because the health minister, Ewa Kopacz, who is a doctor, decided that it would not be too safe. "As a physician, I am guided by the principle of not harming others" - Kopacz said in the Polish parliament in 2009. – ”We will not purchase vaccine for swine flu."
… in 2007 a dozen of homeless people in Poland who, without their knowledge, were vaccinated against bird flu– died …
For over 30 years in the U.S., pharmaceutical companies produce vaccines derived from aborted fetal tissue (…)
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Polish Examples
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English Examples
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Arguments against vaccination vary by gender.
Men tend to be more concerned with topics that focus on the bigger picture.
Women tend to be more concerned with granular topics, focusing on direct cause & effect.
59%
58%
54%
51%
48%
42%
41%
37%
41%
42%
46%
49%
52%
58%
59%
63%
Developmental Disabilities
Unnecessary
Side Effects
Chemicals/Unnatural
Distrust Government/Industry
Religion/Ethics
Efficacy
Western Plot
Female Male
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But analyzing various metrics pointed to three topics: Distrust, Disabilities, Chemicals.
Rank by Activity Volume
Rank by Impact Ratio
Rank by Conversation Density
Rank by Engagement Rate
Religion/Ethics Developmental Disabilities Distrust Government/Industries
Developmental Disabilities
Distrust Government/Industries
Distrust Government/Industries
Developmental Disabilities Chemicals/Unnatural
Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural Chemicals/Unnatural Distrust Government/Industries
Developmental Disabilities Unnecessary Side effects Unnecessary
Side Effects Side Effects Western Plot Religion/Ethics
Western Plot Religion/Ethics Unnecessary Efficacy
Efficacy Western Plot Religion/Ethics Western Plot
Unnecessary Efficacy Efficacy Side effects
Anti-Vaccination advocates leverage their social networks to influence others about health, parenting, & policy. Influencer Networks Description
Dr. Joseph Mercola Facebook, Twitter, Blog Naturopathic doctor against vaccines
Vactruth.com Blog Concern with vaccines having aborted fetal tissue, chemicals used in pesticides, & heavy metals
Zen Gardner – Just Wondering Blog Conspiracies aimed at media, government, science, etc.
Dr. Tenpenny on Vaccines Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest Osteopathic doctor argues that vaccines cause brain injury
Left Brain/Right Brain Blog Autism news science & opinion, anti-vaccination leaning
Thinking Moms’ Revolution Blog, Facebook Parent-focused
Proud Parents of Unvaccinated Children Facebook Argues that vaccinated children get unvaccinated children sick, doctors have inadequate education, Big Pharma controls what doctors learn in medical school
The Refusers Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr Anti-government, anti-corporate, argues that neurotoxins in vaccines cause brain damage
Natural News Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Pinterest, Blog Alternative Medicine blog
Greenmedinfo.com Blog Alternative Medicine blog
Worldtruth.tv Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Digg, LinkedIn, Tumblr, Google+, YouTube
Argues the Pharmaceutical-Industrial Complex pushes harmful vaccines, and vaccinated kids get more sick than unvaccinated kids
DailySalt.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog
Cafemom.com Forum Vaccination studies and effects explored
VaccineInjury.info Blog Argues for natural immunity to regain health
EverydayHealth.org Blog Alternative Medicine blog
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Dr. Tenpenny targets women with emotional appeal & medical authority.
40K Facebook Fans
1.6K Twitter Followers
48 Pinterest Followers
Features
– Multiple social networks
– Multiple websites
– Digital content variety
– Women-focused
– Authoritative
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Natural News presents as an accessible health & wellness authority.
270K Facebook Fans
51K Twitter Followers
4.6K Pinterest Followers
42K YouTube Subscribers
Features
– Multiple social networks
– Digital content variety
– Lifestyle oriented
– Free Information
– Authoritative
Insights & Implementation
Core Members
Intense Member
Alert Members
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Model of Anti-vaccination Sentiment Identification & Salience
1 2 3
Comprehensive Education
Uninformed
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Why do parents refuse vaccinations for their children?
How do they feel?
Acknowledgement
Transparency
More Vaccine Research
Accessible Information
Assurance
Freedom to Choose
Opportunity to contribute
Disempowered
Distrustful
Suspicious
Skeptical
Scared
Frustrated
Conflicted
Guidance
What do they want?
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Engagement strategies flowed directly from our findings.
Appendix
37
Popular arguments reflect traditional American values.
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Religion/Ethics
27%
Distrust Government/
Industries 24%
Chemicals/Non-natural
15%
Developmental Disabilities
14%
Western Plot 9%
Side effects 6%
Efficacy 4%
Unnecessary 1%
Social Media Participants The relative popularity of topics reflects the collective concerns of the English-speaking Anti-Vaccination community—freedom, ethics, religion, and health—typical values of most Americans.
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Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic
Interactions
Posts
Activity Volume Impact Ratio
Topic Impact
Developmental Disabilities 2.7
Distrust Government/Industries 1.9
Chemicals/Unnatural 1.9
Unnecessary 1.6
Side Effects 1.1
Religion/Ethics 1
Western Plot 1
Efficacy 0.9
• Looking at activity volume showed Religion/Ethics to be the most engaging topic.
• Looking at impact ratio showed Developmental Disabilities to be the most engaging topic.
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Each metric tells a slightly different story about each topic
Topic Density
Distrust Government/Industries 7.9
Developmental Disabilities 6.9
Chemicals/Unnatural 6.9
Side effects 6.3
Western Plot 5.8
Unnecessary 5.5
Religion/Ethics 5.2
Efficacy 4.4
People per Conversation Engagement Rate
Topic Engagement
Developmental Disabilities 20%
Chemicals/Unnatural 16%
Distrust Government/Industries 14%
Unnecessary 14%
Religion/Ethics 11%
Efficacy 11%
Western Plot 11%
Side effects 10%
• More people were involved per conversation about Distrust Government/Industries.
• Posts about Developmental Disabilities became conversations more frequently than other topics.
40
The Refusers advocate against vaccines through music & “authenticity."
10K Facebook Fans
13K Twitter Followers
139 YouTube Subscribers
Features
– Multiple networks
– Entertainment content
– Social activism
– American values
– Conspiracy
14K Facebook Fans
730 Twitter Followers
444 YouTube Subscribers
41
VacTruth.com triggers parental fears by emphasizing responsibility.
Features
– Multiple social networks
– Educational
– Empowering
– Authoritative
– Clean, simple design
