TRAC-M-TR-16-012January 2016

TRAC-Monterey FY16Work Program

Development and Reportof Research Elicitation

U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center700 Dyer Road

Monterey, California 93943-0692

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Thisdetermination was made on January 2016.

TRAC-M-TR-16-012January 2016

TRAC-Monterey FY16Work Program

Development and Reportof Research Elicitation

MAJ Casey ConnorsLTC Christopher Smith

U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center700 Dyer Road

Monterey, California 93943-0692

This study cost theDepartment of Defense approximately

$22,000 expended by TRAC inFiscal Years 12-13.

Prepared on 20151210TRAC Project Code # 090090.

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Thisdetermination was made on January 2016.

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30 DEC 2015 Technical Report July 2015 to August 2015

TRAC-Monterey FY16 Work Program Development and Report of ResearchElicitation

MAJ Casey ConnorsLTC Christopher Smith

U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center700 Dyer RoadMonterey, California 93943-0692

TRAC-M-TR-16-012

U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center255 Sedgwick AvenueFort Leavenworth, KS 66027-2345

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

This document provides a report of the impact of the fiscal year 2015 (FY15) TRAC-Monterey (TRAC-MTRY) work program, theplan, results, and recommendations for the FY16 research elicitation, and the proposed FY16 TRAC-MTRY work program. Themethodology used to develop the FY16 TRAC-MTRY work program starts with analyzing the impacts of the FY15 work programusing a topic, technology, methodology (TTM) framework that examines the effects of TRAC-MTRY projects in terms of fiveTRAC work categories. The FY16 research elicitation consists of both a formal elicitation of research ideas from across TRACusing interviews and a workforce survey, and an informal elicitation of research needs from organizations both within TRAC andacross the Army. Finally, we develop the proposed FY16 work program, assess it against the TTM framework against ourestablished TRAC work categories and present the impacts here. A full listing of FY15 projects completed can be found in\autoref{tab:fy15projlist}. A listing of FY16 projects which are currently in the beginning stages of research can be found in\autoref{tab:fy16projlist}. This is the FY16 work program that will be executed pending any changes to priorities or additionalprojects that require immediate research.

Work Program; Research Elicitation

Unclassified

UU UU UUUU 35

MAJ Casey Connors

(831)-656-7575

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Table of Contents

Report Documentation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iiiExecutive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-1

Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-1Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ES-1

Chapter 1. Introduction 1Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Problem Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Project Methodology and Timeline Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2The Topics, Technologies, and Methodologies Framework for Measurement

of Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Report Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Chapter 2. Impact of TRAC-Monterey FY15 Projects 5

Chapter 3. FY16 TRAC Research Elicitation 7Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Chapter 4. FY16 Proposed TRAC-Monterey Work Program 9

Chapter 5. Summary and Conclusions 11Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Appendix A. FY15 Work Program Impact Crosswalk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A-1

Appendix B. Research Elicitation Questionairre . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . B-1

Appendix C. Research Elicitation Interview and Survey Response Research IdeaList . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C-2

Appendix D. FY16 Work Program Impact Crosswalk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-1

Appendix E. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . E-1

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List of Figures

Figure 1. Example Impact Grid showing how the impacts of Topics, Technologies,and Methodologies interrelate with TRAC work categories. . . . . . . 3

Figure 1. Impacts of Topics, Technologies, and Methodologies of completed FY15projects interrelated with TRAC work categories. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Figure 1. Impacts of Topics, Technologies, and Methodologies of completed FY15projects interrelated with TRAC work categories. . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

List of Tables

Table 1. Five General Catagories of Work Within TRAC Centers (FLVN, WSMR,LEE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Table 1. FY15 Project List . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Table 1. FY16 Proposed Project List including funding and sponsors. . . . . . 9

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Executive Summary

Overview

This document provides a report of the impact of the fiscal year 2015 (FY15) TRAC-Monterey (TRAC-MTRY) work program, the plan, results, and recommendations for theFY16 research elicitation, and the proposed FY16 TRAC-MTRY work program. The method-ology used to develop the FY16 TRAC-MTRY work program starts with analyzing the im-pacts of the FY15 work program using a topic, technology, methodology (TTM) frameworkthat examines the effects of TRAC-MTRY projects in terms of five TRAC work categories.The FY16 research elicitation consists of both a formal elicitation of research ideas fromacross TRAC using interviews and a workforce survey, and an informal elicitation of re-search needs from organizations both within TRAC and across the Army. Finally, we de-velop the proposed FY16 work program, assess it against the TTM framework against ourestablished TRAC work categories and present the impacts here. A full listing of FY15projects completed can be found in Table 1. A listing of FY16 projects which are currentlyin the beginning stages of research can be found in Table 1. This is the FY16 work programthat will be executed pending any changes to priorities or additional projects that requireimmediate research.

Results

The FY15 TRAC-MTRY work program involved impacts in the areas of method and data im-provement, specifically in data analytics methodologies, human dimension analysis, measure-ment space analysis, technologies of the Person Data Event (PDE) system, GINA/DragonPulse, and the Executable Architecture Systems Engineering (EASE) system. The FY16work program is planned to continue work with the PDE and GINA, and investigate moredata analytics, wargaming, and data visualization methodologies. The work program re-mains flexible by not completely using the FY16 total analyst capacity up front. Instead,some room is left to conduct short-term or quick-turn analyses that may be required byTRAC, TRADOC, or the Army. Additionally, there is room if further funding becomesavailable for projects that fit TRAC research priorities and provide acceptable impact toTRAC. The FY16 TRAC-MTRY work program offers some great opportunities to expandknowledge sharing and to integrate into the analytic work being conducted by the rest of theTRAC centers through stakeholder interaction, continued TRAC-MTRY support for mea-surement space drills, and engagement with the TRAC centers on past research conductedto help improve OR analysis across the organization.

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TRAC-Monterey FY16 Work ProgramDevelopment and Report of Research

ElicitationChapter 1

Introduction

OverviewThis document provides a report of the impact of the fiscal year 2015 (FY15) TRAC-Monterey (TRAC-MTRY) work program, the plan, results, and recommendations for theFY16 research elicitation, and the proposed FY16 TRAC-MTRY work program.

BackgroundAt the end of FY13, TRAC-MTRY conducted a research priorities elicitation from acrossTRAC in order to support development of the research council’s FY14 research priorities.1In FY14, TRAC-MTRY conducted another research elicitation to capture the lessons learnedfrom the elicitation conducted in FY13.2 Through this process, it became apparent that theresearch elicitation is a very good opportunity for TRAC-MTRY to become familiar withthe operations and studies of all the TRAC centers. Because TRAC-MTRY needs to ensurethat its work program is relevant to TRAC as a whole, the research elicitation becomesanother opportunity to synchronize TRAC-MTRY’s operations into the missions that eachof the TRAC centers face, as well as to communicate the research that TRAC-MTRY hasconducted that would be useful to the TRAC centers if implemented.

Research Topics. Additionally, the research elicitation offers prospects of interesting re-search ideas that can be pursued to support not only TRAC, but the Army in general.TRAC-MTRY elicits these ideas, prioritizes them, and then develops a work program thatincorporates those research ideas in a framework that potentially has the largest impact onTRAC capabilities to conduct analysis for the Army.

1 Marks, Chris, Nesbitt, Peter. TRAC FY14 Research Requirements Elicitation. Technical ReportTRAC-M-TM-13-059. 700 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA 93943-0692, 2013.

2 Teter, Michael D., Smith, Christopher M. TRAC FY15 Research Planning and Elicitation. TechnicalReport TRAC-M-TM-13-059. 700 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA 93943-0692, 2013.

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Problem StatementTRAC-MTRY annually develops a work program consisting of research projects that providehigh impact, relevant, and credible additions to TRAC’s capability to conduct operationalanalyses.

Project Methodology and Timeline OverviewAs stated, this is an annual effort that builds on the previous years work and is constantlyanalyzed to ensure the process remains appropriate to providing the most relevant researchto TRAC. In general, research ideas are elicited from several sources, both inside TRACusing the formal annual research elicitation and from agencies across the Army and DOD.These ideas are analyzed for their relevance and ability to impact TRAC operations aswell as the possibility that each idea will yield sponsors and have an appropriate amountof stakeholders to measure the worth of the research idea against the resources requiredto execute the research. Additionally, the analysis provides insights into TRAC’s researchobjectives and priorities. Projects are formed from those ideas deemed of high value andsponsors secured. These projects are balanced against the amount of resources available, interms of TRAC-MTRY analyst capacity and funding available to fund student and faultyresearch at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), the Air Force Institute of Technology(AFIT), and other graduate institutations. Once complete, the project schedule is developedand published, assigning analysts and resources to each project.

Methodology

The TRAC-MTRY research elicitation drives the TRAC-MTRY work program. We use theTopics, Technologies, and Methodologies Framework to choose projects that have the mostimpact in the areas of greatest interest to TRAC.

The Topics, Technologies, and Methodologies Framework for Mea-surement of Impact

Research ideas are considered on the basis of the type of topic the potential project woulddelve into, a specific technology that may be emerging as an important future analyticaltool, or the methodology the potential project would. The extent of the impact in one ormore of the areas of topic, technology, and methodology is measured by showing how theproject contributes in each of these areas to the specific work areas in which TRAC engages.We have derived five categories, or main analysis areas, into which all work done withinTRAC can fall. These categories are largely based on the TRAC’s billable project codes.Definitions for the five categories are shown in Table 1.

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Table 1. Five General Catagories of Work Within TRAC Centers (FLVN,WSMR, LEE)

Category Number TRAC Work Categories Explanation1 TRAC Analysis Work in support of TRAC Studies and Analysis2 External Support Research and analysis for other organizations3 Method & Data Improvement Work in support of methods and data used for TRAC Analysis4 Model Improvement Work in support of models used for TRAC Analysis5 Organizational Improvement Research and activities to improve TRAC

A roll-up of all the TRAC-MTRY projects and their projected impact is shown in the topic,technology, methodology to work category grid. An blank example of the grid is given inFigure 1.

Figure 1. Example Impact Grid showing how the impacts of Topics, Technolo-gies, and Methodologies interrelate with TRAC work categories.

Report OrganizationThe remainder of this report is organized to first show the impact of the previous year’sproject slate, the results of the current year’s research elicitation, and the projected slatingfor the next fiscal year’s project schedule at TRAC-MTRY. In chapter 2, we explain theimpact, in terms of topic, technologies, and methodologies, that TRAC-MTRY’s projectshave provided over the fiscal year 15 to TRAC in the main analysis areas listed in themethodology. Then chapter 3 develops the plan, methodology, and results of the FY16research elicitation. The next chapter, chapter 4, shows the projects proposed as the FY16TRAC-MTRY work program and the potential impact of these projects on TRAC’s mainanalysis areas or work categories. Finally, chapter 5 summarizes the TRAC-MTRY workprogram.

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Chapter 2Impact of TRAC-Monterey FY15 Projects

Table 1. FY15 Project List

Project Code Project Name End Date Tech Rep/MemoNumber Cost (Approx.)

060033 Behavior ValidationMethodology for COMBATXXI 30MAR15 TRAC-M-TR-15-013 $ 179,420.00

060111Optimal Facility Location Toolfor Logistics Battle Command(LBC)

31AUG15 TRAC-M-TM-15-025 $ 21,000.00

060122 Measurement Space DrillSupport 30JUN15 TRAC-M-TR-15-026 $ 25,500.00

060128Trade Space Analysis:Definition, Requirements, andMethodologies

30SEP15 TRAC-M-TR-15-028/TRAC-M-TR-15-029 $ 43,500.00

090089 TRAC Searchable ResearchLibrary 12DEC15 TBD TBD

060118

Executable Architecture SystemsEngineering (EASE) IntegrationRequirement Methodology forCOMBATXXI

31DEC15 TRAC-M-TR-16-005 $ 139,000.00

020306 Measuring Force 2025 LogisticFlow 31DEC15 TBD TBD

040034 Innovative use of gameplay 31DEC15 TBD TBD

060112 TRAC Knowledge ManagementEffectiveness Model 31DEC15 TRAC-M-TM-15-036 $ 128,000.00

060121 Global Assessment Tool (GAT)2.0 Exploratory Data Analysis 31DEC15 TBD TBD

060123Understanding OptimalDecision-making in War-gamingIII

31DEC15 TRAC-M-TM-15-030 $ 124,000.00

060114

Conflict Prediction ThroughGeo-Spatial Interpolation ofRadicalization in Syrian SocialMedia

31DEC15 TRAC-M-TM-15-031 $ 98,000.00

060113

Validating the FOCUS ModelThrough an Analysis of IdentityFragmentation in Nigerian SocialMedia

31DEC15 TRAC-M-TM-15-032 $ 61,000.00

060119 The Logistics Battle Command(LBC) Attrition Model 13MAY16 TBD TBD

Table 1 shows the list of TRAC-MTRY projects completed in FY15 along with technicalreport or memorandum numbers published in support of those projects. The matrix in Fig-ure 1 shows the number of impacts in each analysis category for the categories of topic,

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technology, and methodology contributed by the TRAC-MTRY work program. The im-pacts are counted by examining which topics, technologies, or methodologies each projectresearches. Each topic, technology, or methodology is then judged to contribute to one ormore of the 5 TRAC analysis or work program categories.

Figure 1. Impacts of Topics, Technologies, and Methodologies of completedFY15 projects interrelated with TRAC work categories.

The chart found at Figure 1 summarizes the impacts of fourteen FY15 projects across thethree focus areas effecting the five TRAC work categories. The FY15 work program includedfive total topics, three total technologies, and eight total methodologies. A complete listingof these topics, technologies, and methodologies cross walked with the project that producedit and the particular TRAC work categories that it impacted is given at Appendix A. Theimpacts to TRAC spread fairly evenly across the work categories, with a slightly higherimpact to Method and Data Improvement, which can have a great impact on how TRACconducts major studies.

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Chapter 3FY16 TRAC Research Elicitation

Methodology

Internal Research Elicitation. In July 2015, formal interviews were conducted at thedirectorate level at each TRAC center, to include the directors of each center and with thedirector of TRAC. These interviews consisted of asking leading questions to prompt theinterviewees about what interesting research ideas they had in the areas of topics, technolo-gies, and methodologies. An interview questionnaire was used to help guide the discussion.The questionnaire can be found at B In addition to these interviews with the leadership ofTRAC, a survey was conducted, using an on-line survey on Sharepoint, of the entire work-force. Specifically, the survey asked respondents to provide any ideas they might have forresearch, how they would prioritize that research, and list of potential stakeholders for the re-search idea. The results of the interviews and survey responses are shown in the spreadsheetat C.

The formal portion of the elicitation helped determine whether the current TRAC FY15 Re-search Objectives should be modified to become TRAC FY16 Research Objectives. There isone recommended change to the TRAC Research Objectives suggested by the formal portionof the research elicitation. The recommended FY16 TRAC Research Objectives:

1. Tradespace2. Analytics3. TRAC Models and Simulations Improvement (changed from CXXI, AWARS, LBC)4. OneTRAC5. Human Dimensions6. Cyber

Several topics, technologies, and methodologies were also identified as being important forTRAC and placed under consideration to become part of a TRAC-MTRY research project.These are listed below:

Topics:1. Improvement of collaboration and sharing of study and research data, results, and method-ologies.2. Improved Mission Command modeling.

Technologies:

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1. Technologies that improve collaboration and sharing of study and research data, results,and methodologies.

Methodologies:1. Development of generalized tools based on TRAC-MTRY research that other centers canapply.2. DOTMLPF analysis improvement.3. TRAC-wide survey of routinely produced TRAC analyses and ways to improve.4. Develop representation of robotic or unmanned systems in TRAC combat models.5. Improved representation of risk to decision makers.6. Development of a TRAC modeling and simulation strategy that provides a plan for de-velopment of new models and simulations over the next ten to twenty years.7. Innovative visualization techniques and their application within TRAC.

External Research Elicitation. In addition to the formal elicitation internal to TRAC,TRAC-MTRY conducts a review of research project ideas proposed from various sources.Those sources include extensions of ongoing NPS faculty research that may align with TRACresearch priorities, conferences such as the MORS symposium or the FA49 symposium,meetings with various DoD and Army agencies, and continuation of past TRAC-MTRYresearch efforts. From these sources, TRAC-MTRY is able to find potential external sponsorsinterested in results of the research whose topic, technology, or methodology will also benefitTRAC.

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Chapter 4FY16 Proposed TRAC-Monterey Work Program

Table 1 shows the currently proposed FY16 Project list. This list was developed using thetopic, technology, methodology framework discussed throughout this paper.

Table 1. FY16 Proposed Project List including funding and sponsors.

Project Code Project Name End Date Funding Sponsor

090089 TRAC Searchable ResearchLibrary 12DEC15 $200,000 TRAC

060119 The Logistics Battle Command(LBC) Attrition Model 13MAY16 $130,000 TRAC-LEE

020309Force 2025 and Beyond StrategicQuick-Turn Force DesignAnalytic Model

11AUG16 $200,000 TRAC

060314 Crowd Behavior AlgorithmDevelopment 21JUL16 $150,000 TRAC

060315 Cognitive Agility Measurementin a Complex Environment 19AUG16 $200,00 TRAC

060311 GAT 2.0 Predictive ModelingAnalysis III 30SEP16 $75,000 Army Analytics Group

060312 Cross Service Cost EstimationMetrics 30SEP16 $0 TRAC-WSMR

TBD COMBATXXI BehaviorValidation Implementation 30SEP16 $96,000 ARL/HRED

TBD Commander’s Social MediaSituational Awareness Model 30SEP16 $100,000 AAG

060317 Precision Munition EffectRepresentation 30SEP16 $150,000 DAMO-TRA

060318TRAC Common ProductInnovative VisualizationTechniques

30SEP16 $0 TRAC-FLVN

060313 Network Integration ExerciseSMERT Analysis 01OCT16 $100,000 TRAC

060316 Metrics for Systems Thinking inIrregular Warfare 01OCT16 $100,000 TRAC

The impacts of this proposed work program are shown in Figure 1. The chart summarizesimpacts of thirteen FY16 Projects across three focus areas effecting five categories. Withinthe thirteen projects, there are 6 total topics, 6 total technologies, and 17 total methodolo-gies that each have an impact in the five TRAC work categories. The impact cross-walkspreadsheet can be found at Appendix D.

Refer to Impact Spreadsheet for FY16 projects - in appendix

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Figure 1. Impacts of Topics, Technologies, and Methodologies of completedFY15 projects interrelated with TRAC work categories.

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Chapter 5Summary and Conclusions

Summary

TRAC-MTRY conducts an in-depth study annually to provide TRAC recommendations onthe priorities of research and analysis and develop a research work program for TRAC-MTRYthat delivers the greatest impact to TRAC, TRADOC, and the Army possible. This researchelicitation takes place both formally and informally and results in the proposed followingfiscal year work program. TRAC-MTRY’s work program is then measured using the topics,technologies, and methodologies framework.

Conclusions

The FY15 TRAC-MTRY work program had impact in the areas of method and data improve-ment, specifically in data analytics methodologies, human dimension analysis, measurementspace analysis, technologies of the Person Data Event (PDE) system, GINA/Dragon Pulse,and the Executable Architecture Systems Engineering (EASE) system. The FY16 workprogram is planned to continue work with the PDE and GINA, and investigate more dataanalytics, wargaming, and data visualization methodologies. The work program remainsflexible by not completely using the FY16 total analyst capacity up front. Instead, someroom is left to conduct short-term or quick-turn analyses that may be required by TRAC,TRADOC, or the Army. Additionally, there is room if further funding becomes available forprojects that fit TRAC research priorities and provide acceptable impact to TRAC. That isnot to say that TRAC-MTRY does not have a challenging work program lined up for FY16.Rather, the FY16 work program promises to provide a large future impact to TRAC analysisand will be challenging to complete given the timing and resources required of several of theprojects. Further, the FY16 TRAC-MTRY work program offers some great opportunitiesto expand knowledge sharing and to integrate into the analytic work being conducted bythe rest of the TRAC centers through stakeholder interaction, continued TRAC-MTRY sup-port for measurement space drills, and engagement with the TRAC centers on past researchconducted to help improve OR analysis across the organization.

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Appendix AFY15 Work Program Impact Crosswalk

The tables below show the impact cross walk of topics, technologies, and methodologies foreach FY15 project and the impact to the TRAC work categories for each.

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Appendix BResearch Elicitation Questionairre

NOTE: Below questionnaire was used as a guide to help keep the interview on track. Ifsufficient discussion was taking place without going beyond the scope of the interview, thesequestions were not needed.

FY16 TRAC Research Requirements Elicitation InterviewsInterview Guide:1. Describe a research requirement in the areas of topics, techniques, and methodologies.2. Which TRAC center(s)/ Directorate would most likely be a stakeholder?3. With regards to OneTRAC, what is the priority of this research?4. What are your top three priorities for this next FY?5. Of the research requirements, what priority order would you assign this need?6. How relevant are the current research objectives? What about in the context of 2025B?7. What dates in the past year did you have a measurement space drill and what venue wasused (onsite, VTC, DCO, etc.)?8. Please make sure to complete the survey on-line.9. Brief remarks on progress on research from FY15 to interviewee.NOTES ON QUESTION: (Can mark note with number of question or mark other/misc):

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Appendix CResearch Elicitation Interview and Survey Response

Research Idea List

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Appendix DFY16 Work Program Impact Crosswalk

The following tables show the impact cross-walk of topics, technologies, and methodologiesfor each FY15 project and the impact to the TRAC work categories for each.

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Appendix EReferences

[1] Marks, Chris, Nesbitt, Peter. TRAC FY14 Research Requirements Elicitation. TechnicalReport TRAC-M-TM-13-059. 700 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA 93943-0692, 2013.

[2] Teter, Michael D., Smith, Christopher M. TRAC FY15 Research Planning and Elicita-tion. Technical Report TRAC-M-TM-13-059. 700 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA 93943-0692,2013.

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