TPabjan

8/3/2019 TPabjan

1/12

, V ( [ S H U L P H Q W D O 0 H W D S K \ V L F V 3 R V V L E O H "

7DGHXV]3DEMDQ7KH3RQWLFDO8QLYHUVLW\RI-RKQ3DXO,,

&RSHUQLFXV&HQWHUIRU,QWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\6WXGLHV

,V([SHULPHQWDO0HWDSK\VLFV3RVVLEOH"

7KHKLVWRU\RI WKHSKLORVRSK\RIVFLHQFHLVODUJHO\WKHKLVWRU\RIWKH

GLVSXWHRYHUWKHPHWKRGRORJLFDOUXOHVIRUGLVWLQJXLVKLQJHPSLULFDOVFLHQFHIURPRWKHUHOGVRI KXPDQNQRZOHGJHVXFKDVSKLORVRSK\7KLVZDVWKH

FDVHHYHQGXULQJWKHSHULRGRI SRVLWLYLVPFRQWURYHUV\ZKHUHWKHSUREOHP

RIGHPDUFDWLRQZDVLQLWLDWHGDQGZKLFKVLJQLFDQWO\FRQWULEXWHGWRWKH

FODULFDWLRQRI WKHVHUXOHV:KLOVWLWLVWUXHWKDWWKHSRVVLELOLW\RI QGLQJ

DFOHDUFULWHULRQWRGLVWLQJXLVKVFLHQFHIURPZKDWLVQRWVFLHQFHKDVSURYHG

WREHDQ LOOXVLRQWKHZRUNRI SKLORVRSKHUVDQGKLVWRULDQVRQ WKLVLVVXH

KDVKHLJKWHQHGDQDZDUHQHVVRI WKHPHWKRGRORJLFDOGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQ

GLVWLQFWW\SHVRIVFLHQFHVDQGDERYHDOOEHWZHHQHPSLULFDOVFLHQFHDQG

SKLORVRSK\)URPD PHWKRGRORJLFDOSRLQW RI YLHZDPRGHORI DQH[DFW

VFLHQFHLVSK\VLFVZKLOHLQWXUQPHWDSK\VLFVLVWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWDUHDRI

SKLORVRSK\6RLWLVQRWVXUSULVLQJWKDWDUJXPHQWVLQWKHVHGLVFXVVLRQVYHU\

RIWHQFRQFHUQSK\VLFVDQGPHWDSK\VLFV

+RZHYHULWDSSHDUVWKDWPHWKRGRORJLFDOUXOHVDUHQHYHUGHWHUPLQHG

DUELWUDULO\7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHVFLHQFHVERWKHPSLULFDODQGSKLOR

VRSKLFDOPDNHVWKHVFLHQWLFPHWKRGLWVHOIDOVRHYROYH$QDGGLWLRQDOIDF

WRUIDYRXULQJWKLVHYROXWLRQDQGVRPHWLPHVHYHQIRUFLQJLWLVWKHVLJQL

FDQWLQFUHDVHLQLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\WUHQGVZKLFKFDQEHREVHUYHGLQUHFHQW

SKLORVRSK\BLQBVFLHQFHLQGG

8/3/2019 TPabjan

2/12

7 D G H X V ] 3 D E M D Q

GHFDGHV2QHRI WKHNH\DUHDVZKHUHWKHVHW\SHVRI LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\LQ

WHUDFWLRQVFDQEHREVHUYHGLVDWWKHERUGHUOLQHRI VFLHQFHDQGSKLORVRSK\

,WWUDQVSLUHVWKDWSK\VLFVLVDQHPSLULFDOVFLHQFHWKDWSURYLGHVWKHODUJHVWQXPEHURI VXEMHFWVIRUSKLORVRSKLFDODQDO\VHVDQGRQHRI WKHPRVWLP

SRUWDQWWKHRULHVLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRI WKLVVFLHQFHWKDWVHHPVWRVKRZDFOHDUFRUUHODWLRQZLWKWKHSKLORVRSK\LVTXDQWXPPHFKDQLFV

4XDQWXP0HFKDQLFVDQG'XKHPV$UJXPHQWV

([SHULPHQWDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVDUHFRPPRQO\UHIHUUHGWRDV

EHLQJWKHH[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFV 7KLVLVDFRQWURYHUVLDOWHUPDQGERWK

SK\VLFLVWVDQGSKLORVRSKHUVUHIHUWRLWZLWKFDXWLRQ7KHUHDUHPDQ\UHDVRQVZK\WKLVKDSSHQVEXWWKHJHQHUDOGRXEWRI DOOZKRGRQRWOLNHWKLVSKUDVH

LVWKDWWUXHSK\VLFVFDQQRWKDYHDQ\WKLQJWRGRZLWKWUXHSKLORVRSK\DQG

YLFHYHUVD0RUHRYHUSK\VLFLVWVRIWHQGRQRWWUHDWSKLORVRSK\WKHKHULWDJHRI

SRVLWLYLVPDVDYDOXDEOHDUHDRI NQRZOHGJHDQGSKLORVRSKHUVLQWXUQORRNDW

SK\VLFVDVDZRUWKOHVVGRPDLQWKDWLVXQDEOHWRUHDFKWKHHVVHQFHRI WKLQJV7KLVLVWKHPDLQUHDVRQZK\ERWKVLGHVIHHODQDYHUVLRQWRH[SHULPHQWDOPHWD

SK\VLFV &ULWLFV RI WKLVFRQFHSW VRPHWLPHV UHIHUWR WKH DUJXPHQWV RI WKHFRQYHQWLRQDOLVW3LHUUH'XKHPZKRQRWHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRI WKHWZHQWLHWK

FHQWXU\WKDWWKHVWDWHPHQWVRIPHWDSK\VLFVDQGSK\VLFVEHORQJWRWZRHQWLUHO\GLIIHUHQWZRUOGVDQGRQHFDQFRQQHFWWKHPWRJHWKHURQO\E\DGRSWLQJDQXPEHURIDGGLWLRQDODVVXPSWLRQVDQGWKHVHFDQDOZD\VEHTXHVWLRQHGZKLFK

PDNHVWKHFRQQHFWLRQXQZDUUDQWHG2QHRI 'XKHPVRWKHUDUJXPHQWVVWDWHVWKDWWKHFUXFLDOH[SHULPHQWLVQRWSRVVLEOHLQSK\VLFV

,QVRPHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVRI WKLVLVVXHWKHH[SHULPHQWVRI $ODLQ$VSHFW

WKHEHVWNQRZQDQGWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWH[SHULPHQWDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDO

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


8/3/2019 TPabjan

3/12


LWLHVDUHWUHDWHGMXVWDVWKHFUXFLDOH[SHULPHQWZKLFKVKRXOGDOORZDGHQL

WLYHUHIXWDWLRQRUFRQUPDWLRQRI WKHFRQFHSWNQRZQDVORFDOUHDOLVP/RFDO

UHDOLVPLVDQLGHDWKDWDULVHVIURPDFRPELQDWLRQRI WZRFRQGLWLRQVDVVXPHG

GXULQJWKHGHULYDWLRQRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLW\ORFDOLW\ZKLFKVWDQGVIRUDSURKL

ELWLRQRIWKHLPPHGLDWHDFWLRQDWDGLVWDQFHDQGUHDOLVPDFFRUGLQJWRZKLFK

TXDQWXPUHDOLW\LVLQGHSHQGHQWRI WKHH[SHULPHQWHUDQGDOOWKHSDUDPHWHUVRI

TXDQWXPREMHFWVDUHXQHTXLYRFDOO\GHQHGEHIRUHWKHPRPHQWRI DPHDVXUH

PHQW([SHULPHQWDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVZRXOGWKHUHIRUHDOORZDGH

QLWHVHWWOHPHQWEHWZHHQWKHWZRVWDWHPHQWV1DWXUHFDQEHGHVFULEHGE\WKH

ORFDODQGUHDOLVWLFWKHRU\DQG1DWXUHFDQQRWEHGHVFULEHGE\VXFKDWKHRU\

7KHUHVXOWVRI H[SHULPHQWDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOO LQHTXDOLW\VXJJHVWWKHVHFRQGVROXWLRQLVWKHFRUUHFWRQH7KLVLVZK\-RKQ6%HOOLVQRZFRQVLGHUHGWREH

WKHPDQZKRSURYHGWKDW(LQVWHLQZKRDGYRFDWHGORFDOUHDOLVPZDVZURQJ

0HDQZKLOHWKHFULWLFVRI VXFKLQWHUSUHWDWLRQVHPSKDVL]HWKDWWKHEDVLF

PHWKRGRORJLFDO GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQ SK\VLFV DQG PHWDSK\VLFVLV WKDWWKH

VHQWHQFHVRISK\VLFVDSSO\WRWKHUHVXOWVRIH[SHULPHQWVZKLOHWKHVHQ

WHQFHV RI PHWDSK\VLFV UHIHUV WR UHDOLW\ DV VXFK &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH VHQ

WHQFHVRI PHWDSK\VLFVKDYHWKHDEVROXWHYDOXHLQWKHVHQVHWKDWWKH\DUH

WUXHRUIDOVHUHJDUGOHVVRI WKHSDVVDJHRI WLPHDQGRI WKHUHVXOWVRI H[

SHULPHQWVZKLOHWKHVHQWHQFHVRI SK\VLFVGRHVQRWKDYHVXFKDSURSHUW\

3K\VLFDO WKHRU\ FDQ QHYHU EHUHJDUGHG DVQDO DQG LQFRQWURYHUWLEO\WUXHEHFDXVHRXUWUXVWLQLWLVEDVHGRQO\RQDQLWHQXPEHURI H[SHULPHQ

WDOUHVXOWVWKRVHWKDWKDYHVRIDUEHHQFRPSOHWHG,QGXFWLRQLVDSSOLFDEOH

KHUHZKLFKLVDQXQUHOLDEOHPHWKRGRI LQIHUHQFH,WLVDOZD\VSRVVLEOHWKDW

IXUWKHUH[SHULPHQWVZLOOUHIXWHWKLVWKHRU\RUWKDWDQRWKHUWKHRU\ZLOOFRU

UHFWO\H[SODLQWKHVDPHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWV7KLV LVZK\SK\VLFDOWKHRU\

FDQEHFRUUHFWLQDFHUWDLQSHULRGRI WLPHDQGLQFRUUHFWLQDQRWKHU

7KHRSSRQHQWVRI DSSO\LQJWKHWHUPH[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVWRWKH

$VSHFWH[SHULPHQWVVWUHVVWKHIDFWWKDWWKHVHH[SHULPHQWVEHORQJWRWKH

DUHDRI SK\VLFVDQGWKHLU LQWHUSUHWDWLRQFDQEHPDGHRQO\ZLWKLQSK\VLFDO

WKHRULHV 2QWKH RWKHUKDQGVWDWHPHQWV VXFK DV1R ORFDODQG UHDOLVWLF

WKHRU\LVSRVVLEOHDUHQRWVWDWHPHQWVRI SK\VLFVEXWRI PHWDSK\VLFVEHFDXVHLWUHIHUVWRUHDOLW\DVVXFK7KHFULWLFVRIWKHFRQFHSWRIH[SHUL

PHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVDUJXHWKDWSK\VLFDOH[SHULPHQWVFDQQHYHUGHFLGHRQ

WKHFRUUHFWQHVVRULQFRUUHFWQHVVRIPHWDSK\VLFDODUJXPHQWEHFDXVHWKH

FUXFLDOH[SHULPHQWZKLFKZRXOGMXGJHEHWZHHQWKHRULHVORFDODQGUHDOLVWLF

RUQRQORFDODQGQRQUHDOLVWLFDQGZKRVHYHUGLFWZRXOGEHDEVROXWHLH

LQGHSHQGHQWRI DQ\RWKHUIXUWKHUH[SHULPHQWVLVQRWSRVVLEOH(YHQLILW


8/3/2019 TPabjan

4/12


ZHUHSRVVLEOHWRJLYHDFODLPRI PHWDSK\VLFVVXFKDV1DWXUHFDQQRWEH

GHVFULEHGE\WKHORFDODQGUHDOLVWLFWKHRU\DJXUHRIVWDWHPHQWH[SUHVVHG

LQWKHVWULFWODQJXDJHRI PDWKHPDWLFVZKLFKFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGLQDSK\VL

FDOWKHRU\DQH[SHULPHQWXPFUXFLVLQSK\VLFVZRXOGEHLPSRVVLEOHDQ\ZD\

'XKHPPHQWLRQVWZRUHDVRQVIRUWKLVLPSRVVLELOLW\

)LUVWDQH[SHULPHQWQHYHUWHVWVDVLQJOHK\SRWKHVLVEXWWKHZKROHWKH

RU\:KDWLVPRUHHYHU\WKHRU\FRQWDLQVDORWRIDGGLWLRQDOK\SRWKHVHV

PDQ\RI ZKLFKDUHWDFLWO\DFFHSWHG(YHQLIWKHH[SHULPHQWVHHPVWRUH

IXWHDWKHRU\LWLVQHYHUVXUHZKLFKRI WKHK\SRWKHVHVLQFOXGHGLQWKLVWKH

RU\LVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHRYHUWKURZ6HFRQGO\SXWWLQJWKHSUREOHPLQWKH

IRUPRI GLFKRWRPRXVFKRLFHHLWKHUSLVWUXHRUTSXWVLQWRTXHVWLRQWKHFRUUHFWQHVVRI VXFKDVROXWLRQEHFDXVHLWLVDOZD\VSRVVLEOHWKDWDGGLWLRQDO

K\SRWKHVHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHFDVHRI VXFKDGLVWLQFWLRQDQGWKDW

LQVWHDGRI WZRWKHUHPD\EHWKUHHRUHYHQPRUHSRVVLEOHVROXWLRQV

+RZWR,QWHUSUHWWKH5HVXOWV

RI WKH$VSHFW([SHULPHQWV"

7RGD\WKHUHVXOWVRI HPSLULFDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVDUHIRXQG

WREHDFDVHLQZKLFKWKH'XKHPVDUJXPHQWVDUHDSSOLFDEOH2QHRI WKHSURSRQHQWVRI WKLVDSSURDFK%HQ'RYQRWHV

3HUKDSVVLPLODUFRQVLGHUDWLRQVFDQDOVREHDSSOLHGWR$VSHFWVH[SHULPHQWV%HWZHHQWKHPHWDSK\VLFDOVWDWHPHQWDORFDOUHDOLVWLFWKHRU\LVLPSRVVLEOHDQGWKHDFWXDOH[SHULPHQWDOVHWXSWKHUHLVDKXJHJDS

ZKLFKFDQRQO\EHEULGJHGZLWKWKHDLGRI PDQ\DX[LOLDU\K\SRWKHVHV$Q\RQHRIWKHVHFRXOGEHZURQJ

2WKHUVFHSWLFVUHIHULQWKLVFRQWH[WWRWKHVRFDOOHGH[SHULPHQWDOORRSKROHV

ZKLFKPD\FDOOLQWRTXHVWLRQWKHUHVXOWVRI HPSLULFDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQ

HTXDOLWLHV$SRVVLEOHVRXUFHRIHUURUVPD\EHSULPDULO\SRODUL]HUVGHWHF

WRUVDQGWKHVRXUFHVRISKRWRQV,QWKHUVWDQGVHFRQGFDVHHUURUVFDQEHJHQHUDWHGE\DORZHIFLHQF\RUE\WKHRWKHULPSHUIHFWLRQVRI SRODUL]HUVDQG

GHWHFWRUVSKRWRQVDUHVWRSSHGE\SRODUL]HUVRUDUHQRWGHWHFWHGE\WKHGH

3'XKHPRSFLWSS

8/3/2019 TPabjan

5/12


WHFWRUVLQERWKZLQJVRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOVHWXSLQWKHWKLUGE\WKHIDLOXUH

RI URWDWLRQDOLQYDULDQFHRI WKHOLJKWVRXUFHWKHOLJKWIURPWKHVRXUFHKDV

DSUHIHUUHGSRODUL]DWLRQGLUHFWLRQRUE\WKHPXOWLSOHHPLVVLRQVRISDUWLFOHV

(DFKRI WKHHPSLULFDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVLVLQIDFWDVWDWLVWLFDOWHVW

ZKLFKPHDQVWKDWLQWKLVFDVHRQHPXVWWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWWKHSRVVLEOHVWDWLV

WLFDOHUURUVDOVRZKLFKFDQGHWHUPLQHWKHRXWFRPHRI WKHH[SHULPHQW

$SDUWIURPWKHH[SHULPHQWDOORRSKROHVRQHKDVWRFRQVLGHUVRPHRWK

HUHYHQWXDOLWLHV)RUH[DPSOHDNLQGRI DVHOHFWLRQHIIHFWLVSRVVLEOHZKLFK

DIIHFWVWKHSUREDELOLW\RI LQGLYLGXDOUHVXOWVDQGPDNHVWKH$VSHFWVH[SHUL

PHQWVIDLOWRFRUUHFWO\WHVWWKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHV ,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWGXULQJ

WKHGHULYDWLRQRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVVRPHRWKHUDGGLWLRQDODVVXPSWLRQVDUHLPSOLFLWO\DFFHSWHG,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWWKHSKLORVRSKLFDOFRQFHSWVRI

UHDOLVPDQGORFDOLW\KDYHQRWEHHQVXIFLHQWO\DFFXUDWHO\WUDQVODWHGLQWR

SUHFLVHPDWKHPDWLFVGXULQJWKHSURFHVVRIGHULYDWLRQ,WLVDOVRSRVVLEOH

WKDWWKHUHDUHPDQ\RWKHUHYHQWXDOLWLHVZKLFKDWWKHSUHVHQWVWDJHRI GH

YHORSPHQWRI VFLHQFHFDQVLPSO\QRWEHVHHQ(DFKRI WKHPPD\FDQFHO

WKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI WKHUHVXOWVRI HPSLULFDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHV

PRUHRYHULWPD\HYHQXQGHUPLQHWKH%HOOVWKHRUHPLWVHOI,WVHHPVWKDW

WKHSRVVLELOLW\RIIRUPXODWLQJVXFKK\SRWKHVHVLVFRPSOHWHO\XQUHVWULFW

HG,QUHYLHZLQJDUWLFOHVFRQWDLQLQJVXFKK\SRWKHVHVRQHFDQIHHOWKDWWKH

VFHSWLFVDUHDOZD\VLQDSULYLOHJHGSRVLWLRQEHFDXVHWKH\DOZD\VFDQQGDUHDVRQWRTXHVWLRQHYHQWKHEHVWYDOLGDWHGUHVXOWV

5HIHUULQJWRWKHDERYHLWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKHUHLVQRUHDVRQWR

OLQNWKHSUREOHPRI SRVVLELOLW\ RUUDWKHULPSRVVLELOLW\RI WKHFUXFLDO

H[SHULPHQW ZLWK WKH LVVXH RI SRVVLELOLW\ RI H[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFV

:KHWKHUWKHHPSLULFDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVDFWXDOO\VKRXOGEHJLY

HQWKHVWDWXVRIWKHFUXFLDOH[SHULPHQWZKLFKZLOODQVZHUWKHTXHVWLRQRI

ZKHWKHUWKHSK\VLFDOUHDOLW\FDQRUFDQQRWEHGHVFULEHGE\WKHORFDOUHDO

LVWLFWKHRU\LVDVHSDUDWHLVVXHWKDWRQO\PDUJLQDOO\UHODWHVWRWKHSUREOHP

IRUPXODWHGLQWKHWLWOHRI WKLVSDSHU0RUHRYHULWWUDQVSLUHVWKDWDQDO\VHV

&IHJ$$VSHFW%HOOV7KHRUHP7KH1DwYH9LHZRI DQ([SHULPHQWDOLVW>LQ@4XDQWXP>8Q@VSHDNDEOHV)URP%HOOWR4XDQWXP,QIRUPDWLRQHGV5$%HUWOPDQQ$=HLOLQJHU6SULQJHU%HUOLQSS&I)6HOOHUL(LQVWHLQGH%URJOLH:DYHVDQG7ZR3KRWRQ'HWHFWLRQ>LQ@%HOOV7KHRUHPDQGWKH)RXQGDWLRQVRI 0RGHUQ3K\VLFVHGV$YDQGHU0HUZH)6HOOHUL*7DUR]]L3OHQXP3UHVV1HZLQ@)RXQGDWLRQVRI 3UREDELOLW\DQG3K\VLFVHG$.KUHQQLNRY:RUOG6FLHQWLF6LQJDSRUHSS


8/3/2019 TPabjan

6/12


RI 'XKHPDUHWKHPVHOYHVDVYXOQHUDEOHWRFULWLFLVPDVWKRVHFRQFHSWVWR

ZKLFKWKHLUFRQFOXVLRQVDUHDSSOLHGWRGD\,WLVQRWH[FOXGHGWKDWWKHUHDUH

UHOHYDQWDGGLWLRQDODVVXPSWLRQVZKLFKZHUHQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKHVHDQDO\

VHVDQGZKLFKVLJQLFDQWO\DOWHUWKHVFRSHRI WKHLUFRQFOXVLRQVWKDWVWLOO

DUHLQIRUFHRUWKDWVXFKDVVXPSWLRQVZHUHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWEXWLPSOLF

LWO\ZKLFKDOVRPD\DIIHFWYDOLGLW\RI WKHFRQFOXVLRQV

(YHQLI WKHH[SHULPHQWDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVDUHQRWLQIDFWDEOH

WRVHWWOHGHQLWLYHO\WKHLVVXHRI ORFDOUHDOLVPWKHDQDO\VLVRI WKLVTXHVWLRQUH

YHDOVWKHSUHVHQFHRI FHUWDLQSRVWXODWHVZKLFKFDQQRWEHFODVVLHGRWKHUZLVH

DVSKLORVRSKLFDOZKDWLVPRUHPHWDSK\VLFDO7KLVFRQFOXVLRQLVFOHDUO\KLJK

OLJKWHGE\WKHSUHYLRXVO\TXRWHG%HQ'RYZKRVHDUJXPHQWVVHHNWRVKRZWKDWHPSLULFDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVDUHSK\VLFDOO\YDOLGEXWPHWDSK\VL

FDOO\LUUHOHYDQWEXWDW WKH VDPHWLPHWKH\VKRZWKDW WKHPDLQVXEMHFWRI

DQDO\VLVRI WKHLVVXHVGLVFXVVHGDUHLQIDFWPHWDSK\VLFDOSRVWXODWHV

$FFRUGLQJWRWKLVGLVWLQFWLRQ$VSHFWVH[SHULPHQWVEHORQJWRWKHGRPDLQRISK\VLFVWKDWLVWKH\VKRXOGEHDFFRXQWHGIRUE\SK\VLFDOWKHRU\2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHVWDWHPHQWQRORFDOUHDOLVWLFWKHRU\LVSRVVLEOHLVDPHWDSK\VLFDOFODLPDVLWDVVHUWVVRPHWKLQJDERXWUHDOLW\LWVHOI

,I WKHIXQGDPHQWDOWKHVLVZKLFKLVWKHVXEMHFWRI WKHGLVFXVVLRQRQWKHLQ

WHUSUHWDWLRQRITXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVLVDPHWDSK\VLFDOWKHVLVDQGLIHPSLUL

FDOWHVWVZKLFKDUHGHVLJQHGWRDOORZLWVFRQUPDWLRQRUUHIXWDWLRQDUHFDUULHGRXWIRUPDQ\\HDUVWKHQUHJDUGOHVVRIKRZWKHUHVXOWVRI WKHVHWHVWV

VKRXOGEHLQWHUSUHWHGLWLVDQLPSRUWDQWDUJXPHQWLQIDYRXURIWKHLGHD

WKDWH[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVLVQRWMXVWDQHPSW\PHDQLQJOHVVWHUP

(YHQLI WKHUHVXOWVRI WKHWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVGRQRWDOORZIRU

DGHQLWLYHDQGXQDPELJXRXVVHWWOHPHQWRI SKLORVRSKLFDOGLVSXWHVIRUH[

DPSOHFRQFHUQLQJUHDOLVPDQGORFDOLW\WKH\SURYLGHLPSRUWDQWDUJXPHQWV

IRUGLVFXVVLRQVRQWKHVWDWXVRIWKHVHFRQFHSWV7KHUHLVQRGRXEWWKDWWKH

SKLORVRSKLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQVRI QRWRQO\WKHUHVXOWVRIWKHVHH[SHULPHQWVEXW

DOVR WKH SULQFLSOHV WKHPVHOYHVWKDWPDNH XSWKH IRXQGDWLRQRI TXDQWXP

PHFKDQLFVDVVXFKDUHVLJQLFDQW$EQHU6KLPRQ\WKHDXWKRURI WKHWHUPH[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVHPSKDVL]HVWKDWWKHPHWKRGRORJLFDODXWRQRP\

RI SK\VLFVDQGSKLORVRSK\H[FOXGHVDVLWXDWLRQLQZKLFKDWKHVLVRI RQHRI

WKHVHHOGVIRUH[DPSOHSKLORVRSK\LVYHULHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHPHWKRGV

8/3/2019 TPabjan

7/12


RI WKHRWKHURQHIRUH[DPSOHSK\VLFV+HDOVRSRLQWVWKDWWKHUHVXOWVRI

H[SHULPHQWVWKDWZHUHFRQGXFWHGLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFV

OHDGWRDORJLFDOGLVMXQFWLRQZKLFKDWWKHSUHVHQWVWDJHRI VFLHQWLFGHYHORSPHQWFDQQRWEHXQHTXLYRFDOO\UHVROYHG,QKLVRSLQLRQ

ZHPXVWUHFRJQL]HHLWKHUWKDWWKHLQWULQVLFSURSHUWLHVRIWKHUHDOZRUOGDUHYHU\VWUDQJHLQGHHGRUWKDWVFLHQWLFWKHRULHVVD\PXFKOHVV DERXW WKH LQWULQVLF SURSHUWLHV RI WKLQJV WKDQ VFLHQWLVWV KDYHFRPPRQO\DVVXPHG

1HHGOHVVWRVD\HDFKRI WKHVHSRVVLELOLWLHVKDVYHU\LPSRUWDQWLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUPHWDSK\VLFVDQGHSLVWHPRORJ\

%HWZHHQ3KLORVRSK\DQG6FLHQFH

7RGD\QHLWKHUVFLHQWLVWVQRUSKLORVRSKHUVGRXEWWKDWWKHUHLVVRPHWKLQJ

OLNHSKLORVRSK\RIVFLHQFHDQGLQSDUWLFXODUWKDWHDFKVFLHQFHFDQKDYHLWVRZQSKLORVRSK\3KLORVRSKLFDOSUREOHPVWKDWDULVHLQSK\VLFVFKHPLVWU\

ELRORJ\FRVPRORJ\HWFDQGZKLFKDUHVXFFHVVIXOO\GHDOWZLWKE\DZKROH

KRVWRI SKLORVRSKL]LQJSK\VLFLVWVDUHWDQJLEOHHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHSKLORVRSK\RIVFLHQFHLVLQIDFWDQLQGHSHQGHQWHOGRIKXPDQWKRXJKW7KH

QDWXUHRI DWOHDVWVRPHVFLHQWLFWKHRULHVLQSDUWLFXODUSK\VLFDOWKHRULHVLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHIDFWWKDWWKHUHLVPRUHDQGPRUHWDONDERXWWKHSKL

ORVRSK\RI LQGLYLGXDOVFLHQWLFWKHRULHVWKHPVHOYHV4XDQWXPPHFKDQLFV

LVWKHEHVWH[DPSOH KHUH 7KHGLVSXWHRYHUWKHFRQFHSWXDOEDVLVRI WKLVWKHRU\LQLWLDWHGE\(LQVWHLQGH%URJOLH%RKU+HLVHQEHUJDQGRWKHUVZDV

DFWXDOO\DGLVSXWHDERXWSKLORVRSKLFDOFRQFHSWVDQGFDWHJRULHV$ VWURQJDUJXPHQWIRUWKLVVXJJHVWLRQLV WKDWZKROHJHQHUDWLRQVRI KLVWRULDQVRI

,WLVOHJLWLPDWHLQYLHZRIDOOWKHVHULFKUHVXOWVWRVSHDNRI WKHHQWHUSULVHRI H[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFV$ZDUQLQJLVQHHGHGKRZHYHUDJDLQVWSRVVLEOHPLVXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKLVWHUP2QHVKRXOGQRWDQWLFLSDWHVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGDQGGHFLVLYHUHVROXWLRQRI PHWDSK\VLFDOGLVSXWHVE\WKHRXWFRPHVRIH[SHULPHQWV:HNQRZLQIDFWWKDWODERUDWRU\WHVWVDORQHGRQRWVHWWOH

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


8/3/2019 TPabjan

8/12


VFLHQFHDVZHOODVSK\VLFLVWVDQGSKLORVRSKHUVXQGHUVWRRGWKDWGLVSXWH

SUHFLVHO\LQVXFKDZD\7KLVLVZK\WLWOHVOLNHSKLORVRSK\RI TXDQWXPPH

FKDQLFVRUSKLORVRSKLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQVRI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVDSSHDULQWKHWDEOHVRI FRQWHQWVRUHYHQRQWKHFRYHUVRIPDQ\IXQGDPHQWDOERRNV

GHYRWHGWRWKHSUREOHPRILQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKLVWKHRU\)RUDOODXWKRUVZKRXVHVXFKWHUPLQRORJ\LWLVFOHDUWKDWWKHVHWHUPVGRQRWPHDQWKDWKHUH

WKHSKLORVRSK\EHFRPHVSK\VLFVRUSK\VLFVEHFRPHVSKLORVRSK\EXWWKDW

FHUWDLQFRQFHSWVZKLFKIRUFHQWXULHVZHUHIRXQGLQW\SLFDOO\SKLORVRSKLFDOFRQWH[WVUHDOLVPFDXVDOLW\GHWHUPLQLVPORFDOLW\HWFVXGGHQO\DSSHDULQ

FRPSOHWHO\QHZFRQWH[WVZLWKLQSK\VLFDOWKHRULHV$Q\VXFKWKHRU\XVX

DOO\FRQVLVWVRI DPDWKHPDWLFDOIRUPDOLVPDQGLWVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ(YHQLI WKHVHWHUPVDSSHDURQO\LQWKHHOGRI LQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI WKHWKHRU\VWLOO

LQRQHZD\RUDQRWKHUWKH\DUHDVVLJQHGWRVRPHVXLWDEOHHOHPHQWVRI WKHPDWKHPDWLFDOIRUPDOLVPRI WKHWKHRU\DQGWKHUHIRUHWKH\JDLQLQWKLVZD\

SUHFLVHO\GHQHGUHIHUHQFHWRZKDWFRQVWLWXWHVWKHYHU\FRUHRIWKHWKHRU\0HWDSK\VLFVLVDSDUWRI SKLORVRSK\VRLI WKHDIRUHVDLGWHUPVWKDWDS

SHDULQWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRITXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVDUHDOVRWKHFRQFHSWVEH

ORQJLQJWRWKHYRFDEXODU\RI PHWDSK\VLFVWKHUHLVQRWKLQJWRSUHYHQWWKHORFXWLRQSKLORVRSK\RI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVWREHUHSODFHGE\PHWDSK\V

LFVRI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFV7KLVVXEVWLWXWLRQVKRXOGEHXQGHUVWRRGLQWKHVDPHVHQVHDVEHIRUHQRWDVDQDGPLWWDQFHIRUPL[LQJPHWKRGRORJLFDOOHY

HOVRI KXPDQFRJQLWLRQEXWDVDSKLORVRSKLFDOUHHFWLRQRQWKHFRQFHSWVRI FODVVLFDOPHWDSK\VLFVZKLFKREWDLQDFRPSOHWHO\QHZLQWHUSUHWDWLRQE\WKHIDFWWKDWWKH\RFFXULQRQHRIWKHEHVWFRQUPHGSK\VLFDOWKHRULHV

WKDW LV LQTXDQWXPPHFKDQLFV :KHQ RQHUHPHPEHUV WKDW WKLV VSHFLFWKHRU\GHVFULEHVWKHIXQGDPHQWDOOHYHORI SK\VLFDOUHDOLW\LWVQRWVXUSULV

LQJWKDWPHWDSK\VLFVLVSDUWLFXODUO\LQWHUHVWHGLQWKDWGRPDLQ

7KHVDPHUHTXLUHPHQWVKRXOGEHIRUPXODWHGDERXWWKHWHUPH[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFV,WLVREYLRXVWKDWSKLORVRSK\HVSHFLDOO\PHWDSK\V

LFVFDQQRWEHDQHPSLULFDOVFLHQFH%\GHQLWLRQDQHPSLULFDOPHWKRGLVQRWVXLWDEOHIRUSKLORVRSKLFDOLVVXHV1RUPDOPHWDSK\VLFVFDQEHFRPH

H[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVRQO\LQWKHVHQVHWKDWTXHVWLRQVDQGSUREOHPV

ZKLFKVRIDUZHUHWUDGLWLRQDOO\DWWULEXWHGWRWKLVGLVFLSOLQHUHFHLYHDFRPSOHWHO\QHZLQWHUSUHWDWLRQEHFDXVHWKH\DULVHLQWKHFRQWH[WRISK\VLFDO

WKHRULHVLQZKLFKH[SHULPHQWVDUHFDUULHGRXW3KLORVRSKLFDOSUREOHPVDQGLVVXHVGRQRWFHDVHWREHSKLORVRSKLFDOE\WKHIDFWWKDWSK\VLFLVWVDUHDEOH

WRTXDQWLI\DQGWRWHVWH[SHULPHQWDOO\FHUWDLQDVSHFWVRIWKHVHSUREOHPV

DQGLVVXHVMXVWDVSK\VLFDOFRQFHSWVGRQRWFHDVHWREHWKHSK\VLFDOZKHQWKH\EHFRPHWKHVXEMHFWRI SKLORVRSKLFDODQDO\VHV


8/3/2019 TPabjan

9/12


%HWZHHQWKHUVWDQGWKHVHFRQGW\SHRI DSSURDFKHVWKHUHDUHPDQ\

GHSHQGHQFLHV7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWDUHWKRVHWKDWVFLHQFHPDNHVSRVVLEOH

WREXLOGDUHOLDEOHSLFWXUHRIWKHZRUOGZKDWLVLPSRUWDQWIRUSKLORVRSK\LQFOXGLQJPHWDSK\VLFVZKHUHDVSKLORVRSK\PDNHVLWHDVLHUWR LQWHUSUHW

WKHPDWKHPDWLFDOIRUPDOLVPRI SK\VLFDOWKHRULHV7KLVW\SHRILQWHUGHSHQGHQFHYHU\RIWHQFRQVLVWVLQWUDQVODWLRQRIFRQFHSWVDQGTXDQWLWLHVEH

ORQJLQJWRVFLHQWLFWKHRULHVRQWRSKLORVRSKLFDOFRQFHSWVDQGFDWHJRULHV

RUWKHRWKHUZD\URXQG7KLVPHDQVWKDWWKHVDPHFRQFHSWVDUHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\ERWKSKLORVRSK\DQGSK\VLFVZLWKDFRPSOHWHO\GLIIHUHQWODQJXDJH

LQWKHFDVHRI SKLORVRSK\LWLVDGHVFULSWLYHDQGDTXDOLWDWLYHODQJXDJHRI

WKHKXPDQLWLHVLQWKHFDVHRI SK\VLFVLWLVDSUHFLVHDQGDTXDQWLWDWLYHODQJXDJHRI PDWKHPDWLFV7KHKLVWRU\RIVFLHQFHSURYLGHVPDQ\H[DPSOHVRI

VXFKDGLDORJXHRI VFLHQFHDQGSKLORVRSK\FODVVLFDOPHFKDQLFVVSHFLDODQGJHQHUDOUHODWLYLW\ TXDQWXP PHFKDQLFV DUH SK\VLFDO WKHRULHVZKLFK VXE

VWDQWLDOO\LQXHQFHGWKHFKDQJHLQWKHFXUUHQWXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI WKHSKLORVRSKLFDOFDWHJRULHVRI WLPH VSDFH FDXVDOLW\ GHWHUPLQLVPHWF$PRQJ

WKHVHWKHRULHVTXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVSOD\VDNH\UROH7KLVWKHRU\GRHVQRW

KDYHDQDWXUDOFRPPRQVHQVHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQDQGWKLVLVWKHPDLQUHDVRQIRUZKLFKDFRQWURYHUV\HPHUJHGDERXWKRZWKHHOHPHQWVRIWKHPDWK

HPDWLFDOIRUPDOLVPRI WKLVWKHRU\VKRXOGEHFRPELQHGZLWKHOHPHQWVRI SK\VLFDOUHDOLW\7KH SUREOHPLVWKDWWUDGLWLRQDOPHWDSK\VLFVXQGHUVWDQGV

DOO HOHPHQWVRI WKLVUHDOLW\DVWKRVHZKLFK FDQ EHGHVFULEHGFOHDUO\ DQGXQDPELJXRXVO\ZKLOHTXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVVD\VWKDWVXFKDGHVFULSWLRQLVLPSRVVLEOH7KHGLVSXWHRYHUWKHFRQFHSWXDOEDVLVRIWKLVWKHRU\VKRZV

WKDWWKHSKLORVRSKLFDOLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI LWVPDWKHPDWLFDOIRUPDOLVPLVQRWREYLRXVDQGWKDWWKLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQLVHVVHQWLDOIRUDSURSHUXQGHUVWDQG

LQJRI WKHSK\VLFDOPHDQLQJRI WKHZKROHWKHRU\

4XDQWXPPHFKDQLFVDVZLWKDQ\SK\VLFDOWKHRU\IURPDSKLORVRSKLFDOSRLQWRI YLHZIXOOVDQLPSRUWDQWIXQFWLRQQDPHO\SURYLGLQJDSLFWXUH

RI WKH ZRUOG EHLQJDQLPDJLQDU\ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQRI SK\VLFDOUHDOLW\ 7KLVSLFWXUHLVHVVHQWLDOO\UHODWHGWRWKHTXDQWXPSKHQRPHQDEXWLQGLUHFWO\LW

DOVR LQFOXGHVWKH PDFURVFRSLF ZRUOG RI HYHU\GD\ H[SHULHQFH,QWKH FDVH

RI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVWKHVDPHFDQEHVHHQLQDQ\RWKHUWKHRU\WKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSKLORVRSK\DQGVFLHQFHLVUHFLSURFDORQWKHRQHKDQG

SKLORVRSK\LQXHQFHVWKHFRQWH[WRI GLVFRYHU\DQGWKHFRQWH[WRIMXVWLFDWLRQRITXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVDJRRGH[DPSOHRIWKLVW\SHRILQXHQFHLV

SURYLGHG%RKUZKRLQWHUSUHWHGWKHIRUPDOLVPRI WKLVWKHRU\LQWHUPVRI

URPDQWLFSKLORVRSK\ZKLFKZDVEDVHGRQWKHSULQFLSOHRI FRPSOHPHQWDU

LW\RQWKHRWKHUKDQGTXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVLQXHQFHVWKHVKDSHDQGVWDWXV


8/3/2019 TPabjan

10/12


RI WKHFODLPVRI SKLORVRSK\E\ZD\RI H[DPSOHWKHUHVXOWVRI HPSLULFDO

WHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVVKRZWKDWORFDOUHDOLVPGRHVQRWKROG

1HZ4XDOLW\(PHUJHV

7KHSKUDVHH[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVLVVHHQLQWKLVSHUVSHFWLYHDV

DPHQWDOVKRUWFXWZKLFKGRHVQRWVWDQGIRUDUHMHFWLRQRI FXUUHQWPHWKRGRORJLFDOSULQFLSOHVUHTXLULQJFDUHIXOGHOLQHDWLRQEHWZHHQVWULFWO\VFLHQWLFDQG

SKLORVRSKLFDONQRZOHGJHEXWZKLFKSRLQWVWRWKHHPHUJHQFHRI DQHZTXDOLW\

LQWKHFRQWHPSRUDU\SKLORVRSKLFDODQDO\VHV,WVHHPVWKDWWKHUHDUHLQGLFDWLRQVWKDWWKHVHDQDO\VHVPD\EHWRGD\VXSSOHPHQWHGE\VRPHQHZSUHPLVHVZKLFK

PD\KDYHWKHVWDWXVRI DQDUJXPHQWEXWQRWRIFRQFOXVLYHSURRIGUDZQIURPH[SHULPHQWDOSK\VLFV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHDSSHDUDQFHRI WKHSKUDVHH[SHU

LPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVZLWKLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHVKRXOGEHUHJDUGHGDVDQLQGLFDWLRQRI WKHJUDGXDOHYROXWLRQRI WKHVFLHQWLFPHWKRGLWVHOI7KLVPHWKRGDOORZV

DWOHDVWWRDFHUWDLQH[WHQWWHVWLQJQRWLQWKHVHQVHRI WKHFUXFLDOH[SHULPHQWV

EXWDVFROOHFWLQJDUJXPHQWVLQIDYRXURIRUDJDLQVWWKHLGHDVRUFRQFHSWVZKLFKIRUFHQWXULHVKDYHEHHQWKHVXEMHFWRI RQO\SKLORVRSKLFDODQDO\VHV

,QDVHQVHWKHHYROXWLRQRI VFLHQFHIRUFHVWKHHYROXWLRQRI WKHVFLHQWLFPHWKRGLWVHOIPDWKHPDWLFDOO\DQGWHFKQRORJLFDOO\DGYDQFHGVFLHQWLF

WKHRULHVTXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVEHLQJWKHEHVWH[DPSOHGHPDQGPHWKRGVERWKFRPSXWDWLRQDODQGH[SHULPHQWDOZKLFKZLOOSURYHWREHDGHTXDWHWRWKHQDWXUHRIREMHFWVDQGSKHQRPHQDGHVFULEHGE\WKHVHWKHRULHV

6FLHQFHLVFRQVWDQWO\HYROYLQJDQGWKLVLVZK\VFLHQWLFWKHRULHVGHVFULEHDQGH[SODLQDQLQFUHDVLQJUDQJHRIREMHFWVDQGSKHQRPHQDZKLFKYHU\

RIWHQDUHIXQGDPHQWDOO\GLIIHUHQWIURPZKDWZDVKLWKHUWRWKHVXEMHFWRI

WKHVFLHQFH1RZRQGHUWKDWWKHVFLHQWLFPHWKRGVXVHGVRIDUKDYHWREHPRGLHGWREHDEOHWRWDNHLQWRDFFRXQWWKLVHYROXWLRQRISK\VLFDO

WKHRULHV7UDGLWLRQDOPHWKRGRORJLFDOUXOHVIRUH[DPSOHWKHSULQFLSOHRI PHWKRGRORJLFDOQDWXUDOLVPDFTXLUHLQWKLVSHUVSHFWLYHDFRPSOHWHO\QHZ

DSSHDUDQFHWKH\FHDVHWREHVRPHLQIDOOLEOHD[LRPVZKLFKPXVWEHVWULFWO\

UHVSHFWHGZKHQEXLOGLQJDQGWHVWLQJVFLHQWLFWKHRULHVDQGEHFRPHSRV

$QLQWHUHVWLQJDQDO\VLVRI WKHLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHUHVXOWVRI HPSLULFDOWHVWVRI WKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHVDQGSKLORVRSKLFDOWKHVHVDUHFDUULHGRXWE\WKHDXWKRUVRIWKHDUWLFOHVFROOHFWHGLQWKHYROXPH3KLORVRSKLFDO&RQVHTXHQFHVRI 4XDQWXP7KHRU\RSFLW&I0-DPPHU7KH3KLORVRSK\RI 4XDQWXP0HFKDQLFVWKH,QWHUSUHWDWLRQVRI 4XDQWXP0HFKDQLFVLQ+LVWRULFDO3HUVSHFWLYH-RKQ:LOH\DQG6RQV1HZ

8/3/2019 TPabjan

11/12


WXODWHVWKHULJKWQHVVRI ZKLFKLVDFFHSWHGQRWRQWKHEDVLVRI WKHSKLOR

VRSKLFDOWUDGLWLRQEXWRI WKHVFLHQWLFSUDFWLFHLWVHOI

,VVXHVFRQFHUQLQJWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI WKHIRUPDOLVPRI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVSURYLGHDORWRI YHU\HORTXHQWDUJXPHQWVIRUPDNLQJWKHPHWKRG

RORJLFDOGHPDUFDWLRQEHWZHHQVFLHQFHDQGSKLORVRSK\LVQRWDVLPSOHWDVN&OHDUDQGXQDPELJXRXVGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQZKDWLVWKHGRPDLQRI VFLHQFH

DQGZKDWLVWKHPDWWHURISKLORVRSK\HVSHFLDOO\PHWDSK\VLFVLQWKHFDVH

RI VRPHLVVXHVRIWKLVWKHRU\EHFRPHVYHU\GLIFXOWLI QRWLPSRVVLEOH7KHEHVWH[DPSOHRI WKLVW\SHRI GLIFXOW\LVWKHSUREOHPRI UHDOLVPZKLFKFRQ

FHUQVWKHSDUWLFXODULVVXHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRI WKHIRUPDO

LVPRI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFVSRVVLELOLW\RULPSRVVLELOLW\RIGHWHUPLQLQJWKHSDUDPHWHUVRITXDQWXPV\VWHPEHIRUHWKHPRPHQWRIPHDVXUHPHQWDQG

VLPXOWDQHRXVO\LWVWDQGVIRUWKHSKLORVRSKLFDOO\LPSRUWDQWTXHVWLRQRI KRZWKHTXDQWXPDQGLQGLUHFWO\PDFURVFRSLFREMHFWVH[LVW7KHUHDUHVLJQVWKDW

LQWKLVFDVHZHFDQWDONDERXWWKHERUGHULVVXHVZKLFKDULVHDWWKHLQWHUIDFHEHWZHHQVFLHQFHDQGSKLORVRSK\DQGWKDWERWKRI WKHVHDUHDVRI KXPDQ

WKRXJKWDUHGXHWRLPSRVVLELOLW\RI HOLPLQDWLQJVXFKLVVXHVGRRPHGWR

PXWXDOQHLJKERXUKRRG,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWWKHHYROXWLRQRIWKHVFLHQWLFPHWKRGPHQWLRQHGDERYHLVFDXVHGMXVWE\DJUDGXDOVKLIWLQJRIWKHERUGHU

EHWZHHQVFLHQFHDQGSKLORVRSK\,PSRUWDQWO\WKLVSURFHVVLVQRWEDVHGRQWKHWRSGRZQGHFUHHVZKLFKDUHDQQRXQFHGE\WKHVFLHQWLFRUSKLORVRSKL

FDOHOLWHVEXWRFFXUVDVDUHVXOWRI WKHLQWHUQDOPHFKDQLVPVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI VFLHQFHDQGLVPDQLIHVWHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWZLWKWKHRZRI WLPHVXFFHVVLYHLVVXHVWUDGLWLRQDOO\UHVHUYHGIRUSKLORVRSK\EHFRPHWKH

VXEMHFWRI UHVHDUFKRI HPSLULFDOVFLHQFHVXFKDVTXDQWXPPHFKDQLFV,QWKLVFRQWH[WLWVKRXOGDOVREHQRWHGWKDWFRQWUDU\WRZKDWLVFODLPHG

E\'XKHPLWLVQRWFRUUHFWWRFKDUDFWHUL]HWKHVWDWHPHQWVRI WUDGLWLRQDO

PHWDSK\VLFVDVDEVROXWHLHLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHRZRIWLPHDQGRIH[SHULPHQWVFRQGXFWHGZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRI VFLHQFH7KHDVVHUWLRQV

RI PHWDSK\VLFVDW OHDVWWRVRPHH[WHQWHYROYHLQDPDQQHUDQDORJRXVWRWKHWKHRUHPVRI VFLHQWLFWKHRULHV7KHDUJXPHQWIRUWKLVFRQFOXVLRQLVWKDW

PHWDSK\VLFVLVGLUHFWO\UHODWHGWRWKHLPDJHRIWKHZRUOGZKLFKLVREOLJDWRU\

GXULQJDJLYHQKLVWRULFDOHSRFKZKHUHDVWKHLPDJHRI WKHZRUOGLVGLUHFWO\GHSHQGHQWRQVFLHQFH6FLHQWLFUHYROXWLRQVRUWKHHPHUJHQFHRIHQWLUHO\

QHZVFLHQWLFWKHRULHVRIWHQOHDGWRLPSRUWDQWFKDQJHVLQWKHLPDJHRI WKH

&I52PQqV7KH,QWHUSUHWDWLRQRI 4XDQWXP0HFKDQLFV3ULQFHWRQ8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV3ULQFHWRQ


8/3/2019 TPabjan

12/12


ZRUOGDQGWKLVLQWXUQIRUFHVSKLORVRSK\LQSDUWLFXODUPHWDSK\VLFVWR

PRGLI\DWOHDVWVRPHDVVHUWLRQVRI WKHV\VWHPDQGVRPHWLPHVWRUHMHFWLWWR

WDOO\$JRRGH[DPSOHLVDPHFKDQLVWLFSKLORVRSK\DQGPHWDSK\VLFVZKLFKLQDVHQVHKDVEHHQIDOVLHGE\WKHGHYHORSPHQWRI VFLHQFHLQSDUWLFXODUE\

WKHHPHUJHQFHRIWKHWKHRU\RI UHODWLYLW\DQGRI TXDQWXPPHFKDQLFV$GGLWLRQDOO\LI RQHUHPHPEHUVWKDWWKHUHDUHSRVVLEOHGLIIHUHQWPHWDSK\VLFDO

V\VWHPVLQWKLVFRQWH[WLWZRXOGEHEHWWHUWRWDONQRWDERXWPHWDSK\VLFDO

EXWRQWRORJLFDOV\VWHPVDQGWKDWDQ\FRKHUHQWVFLHQWLFWKHRU\DVVXPHVVRPHXQLYHUVHRIGLVFRXUVHLWEHFRPHVFOHDUWKDWDWOHDVWVRPHPHWDSK\VL

FDOV\VWHPVDUHIDOVLHGZKHQWKHSK\VLFDOWKHRU\ZKLFKSURYLGHVWRWKHVH

V\VWHPVVRPHHOHPHQWVRI WKHZRUOGSLFWXUHLVIDOVLHGDQGUHMHFWHG

7KHUH LV QR GRXEW WKDW WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VFLHQFH KDV FRQWULEXWHGWRDUDGLFDOFKDQJHLQWKHQDWXUHRI WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\SKLORVRSK\,WWXUQV

RXWWKDWPHWDSK\VLFVKDVH[SHULHQFHGWKLVFKDQJHLQDSDUWLFXODUZD\,WLVUHPDUNDEOH WKDWHPSLULFDOVFLHQFHEHFDPHDQ LPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQ WKH GH

YHORSPHQWRI WKLVGRPDLQ,Q WKHODVWIHZGHFDGHVWKLVEUDQFKRI VFLHQFH

KDVVWDUWHGWRGHOLYHUVRPHFRQFUHWHUHVXOWVGLUHFWO\DIIHFWLQJWKHWUDGLWLRQDOSUREOHPVRI PHWDSK\VLFV7KHEHVWH[DPSOHRI WKLVW\SHRIGDWDZKLFKKDV

SURYHQWREHH[WUHPHO\LQWHUHVWLQJPDWHULDOIRUPHWDSK\VLFDODQDO\VHVDUHWKHUHVXOWVRIH[SHULPHQWDOWHVWVRIWKH%HOOLQHTXDOLWLHV8VDJHRIWKHWHUP

H[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVEHFRPHVLQWKLVFRQWH[WIXOO\XQGHUVWRRGDQG

MXVWLHG DOWKRXJK RQHVKRXOG QRW H[SHFW WKDW DOO SK\VLFLVWV DQGZKDWVPRUHDOOSKLORVRSKHUVZLOOEHHQWKXVLDVWLFDERXWVXFKWHUPLQRORJ\)RU

PDQ\RI WKHPGHDOLQJZLWKLVVXHVZKLFKVHHPWRLQGLFDWHDQ\UHODWLRQVKLSZKDWVRHYHUEHWZHHQVFLHQFHDQGSKLORVRSK\ZLOODOZD\VEHWHHWHULQJRQWKH

ERUGHURI PHWKRGRORJLFDOFRUUHFWQHVV+RZHYHUWKHQDOLQVWDQFHLQGHFLG

LQJDERXWZKDWVWLOOUHPDLQVZLWKLQWKHOLPLWVRIWKHVFLHQWLFPHWKRGDQGZKDWDOUHDG\H[FHHGVWKHVHOLPLWVDUHQRWIRUPXODWHGDSULRULSXUHO\E\WKH

WKHRUHWLFDOUXOHVRIPHWKRGRORJLFDOFRUUHFWQHVVEXWE\WKHHYHU\GD\SUDFWLFH

FDUULHGRXWE\VFLHQWLVWV,IWKHFXUUHQWWUHQGVSHUVLVWDQGLIWKHLVVXHVEHORQJLQJWRWKHERUGHUOLQHRI SK\VLFVDQGPHWDSK\VLFVZLOOFRQWLQXHWRLQVSLUH

VFKRODUVWRWDNHXSGLIIHUHQWW\SHVRILQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\VWXGLHVWKHQDOOVFHSWLFVZLOOKDYHWROLYHZLWKWKHIDFWWKDWWKHH[SHULPHQWDOPHWDSK\VLFVDFWXDOO\LQWUR

GXFHVDFRPSOHWHO\QHZTXDOLW\WRERWKWKHSKLORVRSKLFDODQGVWULFWO\VFLHQWLFDQDO\VHVZKLFKFDQQRWEHLJQRUHGDQGZKLFKVKRXOGEHWDNHQLQWRFRQVLGHU

DWLRQLQRUGHUWRSUHVHUYHDSKLORVRSKLFDOO\FRKHUHQWLPDJHRI WKHZRUOGDQG

DFRQVLVWHQWLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHIXQGDPHQWDOWKHRULHVRIPRGHUQVFLHQFH


Documents

TPabjan