Technical PaperTP01: Trends in Motor Vehicles and their Emissions

Advisory Committee on Tunnel Air QualityAuthor: NSW Environment Protection Authority

November 2018

2

Key Points

• Australian new vehicle emission standards are set out in the Australian Design Rules (ADRs) and have been progressivelyandsignificantlyimprovedoverthelast40years.

• The National Fuel Quality Standards have progressively required cleaner fuels to complement the ADRs andenableuseofimprovedemissioncontroltechnology.ProposedreformstotheStandardsareunderway,focusingonpetrol,becauseAustralia’spetrolisnotashighqualityaspetrolinotherOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)countries.

• Emissionsfromthein-servicevehiclefleet(i.e.thevehiclesdriveninNSW)havesignificantlyreducedasaconsequenceofthemorestringentemissionstandardsandcleanerfuel.

• Vehiclekilometrestravelled(VKT)areincreasingsteadily,withpassengervehicleVKTincreasinginlinewithpopulationgrowthataroundonepercentannually,whilefreightvehicleVKTisgrowinginlinewitheconomicgrowthattwotothreepercentannually.

• InspiteoftheincreaseinVKT,thestrongreductioninvehicleemissionrateshasresultedinsignificantreductionsintotalfleetemissions,andthesereductionsareprojectedtocontinueoverthenext10–20years.

• Heavydutydieselvehiclesandinparticularrigidtrucks,aredisproportionatelyhighcontributorstoexhaustparticulatematteremissions.

• AsthenewervehiclesinthefleethavesignificantlyreducedemissionsduetothetighterADRs,theoldervehiclesinthefleetbuilttolessstringentstandardsmakeasignificantanddisproportionatelyhighcontributiontothetotalfleetemissions.

• Fleet composition in terms of both vehicle type and age classes are important factors determining the level of emissionsfromanyspecificroadcorridor.

3

ContentsKey Points 2

1. National Vehicle Emission Standards 4

2. National Fuel Standards 6

3. In-service Fleet Performance 7

4. Vehicle Kilometres Travelled 8

5. Motor Vehicle NSW GMR Air Emission Inventory Projections 9

5.1 Emissioncontributionbyvehicletype 10

5.2 Emissioncontributionbyage 12

6. References 14

Appendix A: Australian ADR Emission Limits 15

4

1. National Vehicle Emission Standards

Newon-roadmotorvehicleemissionstandardsaresetbytheAustralianGovernmentviatheADRs.ThefirstADRgoverningvehicleemissionswassetin1972withADR26,whichsetalimitfortheexhaustconcentrationofcarbonmonoxide(CO)atidle.ThiswasfollowedbyADR27in1974whichintroducedstandardsbasedonmassof emissions per kilometre (g/km) measured under a transient drive cycle designed to represent urban driving conditions.Thefirstemissionstandardfordieselvehicleswassetin1976underADR30/00withtheadoptionofUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforEuropeRegulation24/00whichsetlimitsforexhaustopacity(smoke)understeadystateloadedconditions.The emission standards for light and heavy duty vehicles have been progressively tightened over time based variouslyonUnitedStates(US)andEuropeanUnion(EU)standards.ThecurrentAustralianlightdutyvehicleemissionstandardsareapproximately20–30timeslowerthantheoriginaldrivecycle-basedstandardsinforcein1976,whilecurrentheavydutydieselstandardsarefourtimeslowerforNOx and more than 10 times lower for PMthanthosefirstintroducedin1995.Inadditiontothereductioninemissionlimits,therequireddurabilityofemissioncontrolshasbeensignificantlyextended.ThehistoryofAustralianstandardsforpetrolpassengercars,dieselpassengercarsandheavydutydieselenginesissummarisedinTable1,Table2andTable3.ChartsdisplayingtheADRsareincludedinAppendixA.1 Current emission standards in Australia are Euro 5 standards for new passenger cars and Euro V for new heavy dutyvehicles.TheAustralianGovernment’sMinisterialForumonVehicleEmissionsiscurrentlyconsideringadoptionoftheEuro6standardsforlightvehiclesandEuroVIstandardsforheavyvehiclesin2020,laggingEuropeby5–7years.Euro6standardsextendthelimitonparticlenumberintroducedforlightdutydieselvehicleswithEuro5toincludethosevehiclesfittedwithpetroldirectinjectionengines.Thisisexpectedtorequirenewpetroldirectinjectionvehiclestobefittedwithanexhaustparticlefilter.EuroVIlimitsforheavydieselvehiclesareexpectedtoresultinverylargereductionsinemissionsofNOx,andEuroVIintroducesaparticlenumberlimitwhichwilldriveparticleemissionslower.Beginningin2017,theEU’semissionstype-approvalprocedureforlightvehiclesincludesanewreal-drivingemissions(RDE)testconductedusingon-boardportableemissionsmeasurementsystems(PEMS),toensurevehiclesconformtotherequiredstandardsundernormalon-roaddrivingconditions.TheRDErequirementswillbefullyimplementedbyJanuary2021andwillensurethebenefitsofreducedNOx limits are not lost through test defeatdevices.Europehasnotformallyproposedstricterfuturestandards.TheUShasrecentlybroughtinTier3standardsforlightdutyvehicleswhichby2025willbearound80percentmorestringentforNOx and non-methane hydrocarbons(NMHC)thanEuro6,whilepossiblylessstringentforPM.Table 1: Petrol passenger car emission standards (g/km)

ADR Standard Date(1) CO HC/ NMHC(2)

HC+NOx NOx Particulate Mass

PN(3) Test cycle

ADR27A(4) July 1976 24.2 2.1/– – 1.90 – – US FTP 72ADR37/00 US’75 Feb 1986 9.3 0.93/– – 1.93 – – US FTP 75ADR37/01 US’90 Jan 1999 2.1 0.26/– – 0.63 – – US FTP 75ADR79/00 Euro 2 Jan2004 2.2 –/– 0.50 – – – ECE +

EUDCADR79/01 Euro 3 Jan 2006 2.3 0.20/– – 0.15 – – NEDCADR79/02 Euro4 July 2010 1.0 0.10/– – 0.08 – – NEDCADR79/03 Euro 5 Nov 2013(5) 1.0 0.10/0.068 – 0.06 0.0045(6) – NEDCADR79/04 Euro 5 Nov 2016 1.0 0.10/0.068 – 0.06 0.0045(6) – NEDCADR79/05 Euro 6 Proposed 2020 1.0 0.10/0.068 – 0.06 0.0045(6) 6x1011(6) WLTP

1. Standardappliestoallvehiclesbuiltafterthisdate,generallyappliestonewmodelsoneyearearlier2. Non-methane hydrocarbons3. PN (particle number) per km4. ADR27Awasthefirstintroductionofg/kmlimitsforCO,hydrocarbons(HC)andNOx5. Applies to new models only6. PMandPNstandardsapplytopetroldirectinjectionenginesonly.

1 More detailed information on the ADRs may be found at http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/roads/environment/index.aspx

5

Table 2: Diesel passenger car emission standards (g/km)

ADR Standard Date(1) CO HC/ NMHC(2)

HC+NOx NOx Particulate Mass

PN(3) Test cycle

ADR70/00 Euro 1 Jan 1996 2.72 – 0.97 – 0.14 – ECE + EUDC

ADR79/00 Euro 2 Jan 2003 1.0 – 0.70/0.90(4) – 0.08/0.10(4) – ECE + EUDC

ADR79/01 Euro4 Jan 2007 0.50 – 0.30 0.25 0.025 – NEDCADR79/02 Euro4 Jan 2010(5) 0.50 – 0.30 0.25 0.025 – NEDCADR79/03 Euro 5 Nov 2013(6) 0.50 – 0.23 0.18 0.0045 – NEDCADR79/04 Euro 5 Nov 2016 0.50 – 0.23 0.18 0.0045 6x1011 NEDCADR79/05 Euro 6 Proposed

20200.50 – 0.17 0.08 0.0045 6x1011 WLTP

1. Standardappliestoallvehiclesbuiltafterthisdate,generallyappliestonewmodelsoneyearearlier2. Non-methane hydrocarbons3. PN (particle number) per km4. Firstlimitappliestoindirectinjectionengines,secondappliestodirectinjectionengines5. SamestandardasADR79/01(Euro4)butextendstomorevehicleclasses6. Appliestonewmodelsonly,appliestoallvehiclesfromADR79/04.

Table 3: Heavy duty vehicle diesel emission standards (g/kWh)ADR Standard Date(1) CO HC/

NMHC(2)NOx Particulate

MassPN(3) Test cycle

ADR70/00 Euro I Jan 1996 4.5 1.1/– 8.0 0.36 – ECE-R49ADR80/00 Euro III Jan 2003 2.1/5.45(4) 0.66/0.78 5.0/5.0 0.10/0.16 – ESC/ETCADR80/02 Euro IV Jan 2008 1.5/4.0 0.46/0.55 3.5/3.5 0.02/0.03 – ESC/ETCADR80/03 Euro V Jan 2011 1.5/4.0 0.46/0.55 2.0/2.0 0.02/0.03 – ESC/ETCADR80/04 Euro VI Proposed

20201.5/4.0 0.13/0.16 0.4/0.46 0.01/0.01 8x1011/

6x1011WHSC/ WHTC

1. Standardappliestoallvehiclesbuiltafterthisdate,generallyappliestonewmodelsoneyearearlier.2. Non-methane hydrocarbons3. PN (particle number) per kWh4. FirstlimitappliestoESCtestcycle,secondtotheETCcycle.

6

2. National Fuel Standards

Complementingtheprogressivetighteningofthevehicleemissionstandards,thenationalfuelstandardshavealso been revised to reduce vehicle emissions in several ways:• Specificationswhichsupporttheimplementationofnewemissioncontroltechnology(e.g.eliminationoflead

inpetrolandreductionsofsulfurlevelsinfueltoenabletheuseofexhaustcatalysts)• Specificationstodirectlyreduceengine-out(i.e.beforeexhaustcatalyst)emissions(e.g.reductionsin

benzene concentrations in petrol)• Reductionofpetrolvolatilitytoreduceevaporativefuelemissions.Generally,AustralianfuelspecificationshavebeenalignedtoEuropeanfuelstandards.ThishasbeenappliedtomatchtherequirementsofvehicletechnologydesignedtotheEUemissionstandardsthatAustraliahasadopted.KeyfuelspecificationsaredetailedinTable4forpetrolandTable5fordiesel.2 Table 4: Key petrol fuel standard specifications

Property Standard Fuel Grade Implementaion DateSulfur ≤500ppm Unleaded petrol 1 Jan 2002

≤150ppm Premium unleaded petrol 1 Jan 2002≤150ppm All 1 Jan 2005≤50ppm Premium unleaded petrol 1 Jan 2008

Benzene ≤1%byvol. All 1 Jan 2006Lead ≤0.005g/L All 1 Jan 2002Olefins(1) 18%poolav.over6months;20%cap All 1Jan2004

≤18%byvol. All 1 Jan 2005Aromatics(1) 45%poolavover6months;48%cap All 1 Jan 2002

42%poolavover6months;45%cap All 1 Jan 2005Reid Vapour Pressure(2) 62 kPa from Nov to March All 1Nov2004(3)

1. Poolaverageoverallbatchesinanysixmonthperiod,capappliestoanysinglebatch2. Vapour pressure limit is NSW regulation3. Lowvolatilityfuelwasintroducedbyamemorandumofunderstandingin1998butwasnotregulatedinNSWuntil2004.

Table 5: Key diesel fuel specifications

Property Standard Implementaion DateSulfur ≤500ppm 31 Dec 2002

≤50ppm 1 Jan 2006≤10ppm 1 Jan 2009

CetaneIndex ≥46 1 Jan 2002Density 820-860 kg/m3 1 Jan 2002

820-850 kg/m3 1 Jan 2006Distillation T95 370°C 1 Jan 2002

360°C 1 Jan 2006Polyaromatic Hydrocarbons 11%bymass 1 Jan 2006

InDecember2016,theMinisterialForumonVehicleEmissionsreleasedadiscussionpaperonimprovingfuelqualitystandardsandinvitedpubliccommentuntilMarch2017.Thediscussionpaperhighlightedtwofuelparametersofparticularconcern:sulfurandoctaneinpetrol.Sulfurreducestheefficiencyofvehiclecatalyticconverters,soreducedpetrolsulfurlevelswillsignificantlyreduceemissions.Higheroctanefuelscanbeusedinhighcompressionpetrolengineswhicharemorefuelefficientandproducelessgreenhousegasemissions.A draft regulation impact statement proposing improvements to fuel standards under the Fuel Quality Standards Act 2000 was releasedinJanuary2018.ThesechangesaredesignedtobringkeypropertiesofAustralia’sfuelqualityintolinewithinternationalstandards.

2 More detailed information may be found at http://www.environment.gov.au/topics/environment-protection/fuel-quality/standards.

7

3. In-service Fleet Performance

Theeffectivenessofthetighteremissionstandardsonthein-servicepetrolpassengervehiclefleetisdemonstratedwithdatafromtheCommonwealth’sSecondNationalIn-ServiceEmissionStudy(NISE2)(DEWHA,2009).Theaveragehydrocarbon(HC)emissionsforthefourADRclassestestedintheNISE2projectareshowninFigure1.Thedatashownisforthe20kmAustralianCombinedUrbanEmissionDriveCycle3 (CUEDC) for both a startfromcoldandastartwithafullyhotengine.TheemissionratesareseentohavedecreasedbyanorderofmagnitudefromtheADR37/00carsofthe1990stothelatestvehiclestestedinthisproject,2006–07ADR79/01(Euro3)vehicles.ThecorrespondingNOx emissions are shown in Figure 2 and are also seen to have decreased by an order of magnitudefromADR37/00toADR79/01.The Sydney Particle Characterisation Study showed that PM2.5emissionsfromvehicleshavefallenbyaround40percentoverthelast15years,despiteincreasesinvehicleuse(ANSTO,2016).European real world in-service test data on Euro 5 and 6 petrol vehicles has demonstrated that these standards havebeeneffectiveindrivingsignificantemissionreductions.

Figure 1: HC emissions for petrol passenger vehicles from NISE2 project (DEWHA, 2009) (numbers are a percentage of hot emissions compared to cold emissions)

Figure 2: NOx emissions for petrol passenger vehicles from NISE2 project (DEWHA, 2009) (numbers are a percentage of hot emissions compared to cold emissions) 3 TheCombinedUrbanEmissionsDriveCycleisa‘real-world’vehicletestcycledevelopedfrommonitoringofthousandsof kilometresofactualvehicleoperationacrossAustraliancapitalcities.

8

VKTareestimatedbyTransportforNSW’sTransportPerformanceandAnalytics(TPA).TheTPAestimatesVKTusing sophisticated strategic transport models calibrated with pooled data from the annual NSW Household TravelSurvey(HTS)forpassengertransportandcommercialtransportsurveysforfreighttransport(BTS,2011,TDC,2010).TPAestimatesaregenerallyinagreementwithotherVKTsourcessuchastheAustralianBureauofStatisticsSurveyofMotorVehicleUse(SMVU).The TPA modelled growth in VKT for passenger vehicles and freight vehicles for the NSW greater metropolitan region(GMR)areshowninFigure3.Thevehicleclassesrepresentedbythedashedlinesrefertotherighthandaxis.ThetotalfleetannualVKTgrowthrateisaroundonepercentperyear.PassengervehiclesdominatetheVKTandgrowatpopulationgrowthofalsoaroundonepercentperyear,whileVKTgrowthratesforbothrigidandarticulatedtrucksareinlinewitheconomicgrowthataroundtwotothreepercentperyear.

Figure 3: Average weekday VKT growth 2003–2036

4. Vehicle Kilometres Travelled

120,000,000

100,000,000

80,000,000

60,000,000

40,000,000

20,000,000

12,000,000

10,000,000

8,000,000

6,000,000

4,000,000

2,000,000VKTAvW

eekday(C

ars,LCV)

VKTAvW

eekday(R

igid,A

rtic,Bus,M

C)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Year

0 0

Cars Motorcycles Articulated TrucksRigid Trucks LCV Bus

9

5. Motor Vehicle NSW GMR Emission Inventory Projections

TheNSWEnvironmentProtectionAuthority(EPA)motorvehicleemissioninventorymodelisusedtoprojecttheentirefleetemissionsfortheNSWGMRtofutureyearsasshowninFigure4(EPA,2012).VKTgrowthandcongestionareestimatedfromtheTPAdataabove,andthemodelincludesfleetturnoverandtheresultantadoptionofnewtechnology.4

TheprojectionsdepictedwiththesolidlinesinFigures4and5excludeproposedadoptionofEuro6/VIforlight/heavyvehicles.ThedashedlinesdemonstratetheimpactofadoptionofEuro6/VIanda10ppmsulfurlimitforpetrol.Theprojectionsdonotaccountforanyuptakeofhybridorelectricvehicles.In2016,newregistrationsofelectricandhybridvehiclescomprised0.1percentand1.2percentrespectivelyofnewlightvehicles.Asnewpetrolanddieselvehicleshaveverylowemissions,andthecontributionofoldervehiclesdominatesfleetemissions,alargeuptakeofelectricvehicleswouldberequiredtohavesignificantimpactonthefleetemissions.Figure4showstwolinesforPM2.5.ThelightbluelineshowsexhaustemissionsofPM2.5 and shows strong decreaseswiththepenetrationofnewtechnologyintothefleetasadirectresponsetothelargereductionsinemissionslimitsintheADRs.ExhaustPMismostlylessthan1.0µmindiameter)(PM1),andrepresentsmorethan 99 per cent of the number of PM1 particlesemittedandmorethan85–90percentofthemassofPM1 particlesemitted.AdoptionofEuro6standardsforlightvehiclesandEuroVIforheavyvehicleswouldsignificantlyreducetheprojectedPM2.5exhaustemissions.The dark blue line is the total PM2.5whichincludesnon-exhaustsourcesoftyre,brakeandroadwearaddedtotheexhaustemissions.Non-exhaustparticlescompriselargersizefractionsthanexhaustPM,withonly34percentoftotal PM as PM2.5,ofwhichsevenpercentisPM1.Asthereisnocurrentabatementtechnologyorlegislatedstandardsforthenon-exhaustsourcesofPM,emissionsfromthissourcegrowasadirectfunctionofVKT.HencethetotalPM2.5 reaches a minimum around 2026andthenstartstogrow.

Figure 4: Projected NSW GMR PM2.5 motor vehicle emissions (EPA, 2017)

The PM2.5dataonthebluelinesisplottedagainstthelefthandaxis.VKTdatarepresentedbytheredlineisplottedagainsttherighthandaxis.Note:VKTisinmillionsofkilometresperyear(millionkm/year).

4 Fulldetailsofthemotorvehicleinventorymodelaregiveninthereportathttp://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/air/airinventory2008.htm with projectionassumptionsgiveninAppendixB.

PM

2.5 (

tonn

es p

er y

r)

2003 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 20360

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

VK

T (M

km

per

yr)

Tot PM2.5 BAU

Exh.PM2.5 E6/VI

Exh.PM2.5 BAU

VKT (M km)

Tot PM2.5 E6/VI

10

Figure 5: Projected NSW GMR NOx and VOC motor vehicle emissions (EPA, 2017) Note:TheNOxdataisrepresentedbytheredlinesandareplottedagainsttherighthandaxis.VOCdataarerepresentedbythebluelineandareplottedagainstthelefthandaxis.

Figure5showstheprojectedemissionsofNOxandVOCemissionswithnewvehiclestandards.NOx emissions canbeseentostronglydeclineintothefutureasaresultofthenewlowemissionvehiclesenteringthefleet.Thedashed red line shows that the adoption of Euro 6/VI standards for light/heavy diesel vehicles and adoption of 10 ppmsulfurpetrolwouldsignificantlyreduceNOxemissions.Althoughmotorvehicleemissionsareprojectedtodecline,healthevidenceindicatesthatparticulatematterisanon-thresholdpollutantandO3(formedfromhydrocarbonsandoxidesofnitrogen)isalsolikelytobeanon-thresholdairpollutant.Hence,ongoingemissionreductionswillcontinuetodeliverpositivepublichealthbenefits(WHO2013,Bell&Dominici2008).ThedatatrendsshowninFigures4and5asanaggregationacrosstheGMRmaynotreflectchangesinanyonelocationorroadcorridorwhichmayhavesignificantlydifferentVKTgrowthratesandtrafficmixes.Forinstance,rigidtruckstendtobereplacedatamuchslowerratethanarticulatedtrucks.Theemissioncontributionbyvehicletypeispresentedinthenextsection.

5.1 Emission contribution by vehicle typeThe NSW EPA motor vehicle emissions inventory estimates the contribution by vehicle type to the total 2008 NSWGMRmotorvehicleemissions.ThisisshowninFigure6,Figure7andFigure8forPM10,VOCandNOx respectively.ThevehicletypeabbreviationsusedaregiveninTable6.Table 6: Vehicle type abbreviations

Abbreviation Vehicle TypeART Articulated trucks and heavy truck-trailer combinationsBUS Heavy diesel public transport busesDLCV Diesel light commercial vehicles (utes and vans)DPV Dieselpassengervehicles(carsandSUV/4WD)

HDD Heavy-dutydiesels(rigidtrucks,articulatedtrucks,heavybuses)HDCP Heavy-dutycommercialpetrol(>3,500kg)LDD Light-dutydiesels<3,500kg(lightcommercialvehiclesandcarsandSUV/4WD)MC Motor cyclesMC+HDCP Motor cycles and heavy-duty commercial petrolPLCV Petrol light commercial vehicles (utes and vans)

VOC(tonnesperyr)

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

NO

x (to

nnes

per

yr)

NOx BAU NOxE6/VI&10ppmSPetrol ExhaustVOCTotalVOC

70,000

80,000

90,000

0,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2003 2008 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

11

Abbreviation Vehicle TypePPV Petrolpassengervehicles(carsandSUV/4WD)RIG Rigidtrucks(>3.5tto~25t)

Figure 6: Contribution by vehicle type to 2008 NSW GMR PM10 emissions Non-exhaustsourcesofPM10 account for more than half of the total motor vehicle PM10,ofwhichmost(60percent)isgeneratedbypetrolpassengervehiclesduetotheirdominanceinVKT.Heavy duty diesel vehicles are disproportionately high contributors to PM10exhaustemissionsatmorethan60percent,whileaccountingforonlysixpercentofVKT.Lightdutydieselvehiclesarealsosignificantcontributorsat23percentwhileaccountingforfivepercentofVKT.

Figure 7: Contribution by vehicle type to 2008 NSW GMR VOC emissions

EvaporativefuelemissionsandexhaustemissionsareestimatedtocontributeequallytototalmotorvehicleVOCemissions.Ofthe50percentemittedbyexhaust,petrolvehiclesdominate.Evaporativeemissionsareonlyemittedbypetrolvehiclesandincreasewhentheweatherishotter.Vehiclesstandardsnowrequiresomecontrolonvehicleevaporativeemissions.NSWlimitspetrolvolatilityinsummertomanagetheincreaseinevaporativeemissionsduringwarmermonths.

12

Figure 8: Contribution by vehicle type to 2008 NSW GMR NOx emissions

Heavydutydieselscontributeadisproportionatelyhigh35percentofNOxemissions,whileaccountingforonlysixpercentoftheentirefleet’sVKT.Petrolpassengervehiclesandpetrollightcommercialvehiclescontributethemajorityoftheremainder.Thesignificantlydifferentratesofemissionspervehicletypeindicatethatthecompositionofthevehiclefleetonanyparticularroadcorridorwillbeanimportantfactorinthelevelofemissionsinthatcorridor.

5.2 Emission contribution by ageThe contribution to the total daily emissions by age class (ADR compliance) and vehicle type are shown in Figure 9andFigure10forexhaustPM2.5andNOxrespectivelyforthe2008calendaryear.Thestackedbarsshowtheemissionsbyageclasswiththeoldestvehiclesatthebottomandthenewestatthetop.Thepercentfiguresshownarethetotalcontributionofallagesofeachvehicletypetototalfleetemissions.

Figure 9: PM2.5 emission contribution by age class by vehicle type (2008)

PPV PLCV MC HDCP DPV DLCV RIG ART BUS

8.8%4.6%

0.4% 0.3%3.7%

19.4%

41.6%

16.7%

4.5%

0

400

Exha

ust P

M2.

5 (k

g/da

y)

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

ADR79/01 2006-09

ADR79/002004-05

ADR37/01 1999-03

ADR37/00 1989-98

ADR27 < 1989

ADR79/01/02 2007-13

ADR79/00 2003-06

ADR70/00 1996-02

ADR30/00 1988-95

Pre-ADR30 < 1988

ADR80/02 2008-10

ADR80/00 2003-07

ADR70/00 1996-02

ADR30/00 1988-95

Pre-ADR30 < 1988

13

Asshownintheprevioussection,exhaustPMisdominatedbyheavydutydiesels(RIG,ART,BUS)withasignificantcontributionfromdiesellightcommercialvehicles(DLCV).Forthetwolargestcontributors,DLCVandrigidtrucks,togethercomprisingover60percentoftotalexhaustemissions,around50percentoftheemissionsareproducedbyvehiclesolderthan1996(ADR70/00andoldercertification).Thesepre-1996vehiclesaccountforonly15percentand18percentoftherespectivevehicleclassVKT,andarethussignificantlydisproportionatecontributorstoemissionsataroundthreetimesthefleetaverageemissionrate(perkilometre).Forarticulatedtrucks,thepre-1996vehiclescontribute17percentofthePM2.5 emissions and account for nine percentoftheVKT,andhenceareemittingataroundtwicethefleetaveragerate.

Figure 10: NOx emission contribution by age class by vehicle type (2008)

ForNOxthedominantcontributorsarepetrolpassengervehiclesandpetrollightcommercialvehicles.Thepre-1999petrolvehicles(pre-ADR37/01)contributeapproximatelyhalfoftheirrespectivevehicletypeemissions,butonlyaccountforaround30percentoftheVKT.Thehighemissionratesofoldervehiclesinthefleetindicatethatthefleet’sageprofileandvehicletypecompositionarebothimportantfactorsinestimatingthelevelofemissionsfromanyspecificroadcorridor.

PPV PLCV MC HDCP DPV DLCV RIG ART BUS

44.8%

14.2%

0.1% 0.4% 1.5%3.5%

13.5%

17.2%

4.7%

0

1,000

NO

x (kg

/day

)

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

ADR80/02 2008-10

ADR80/00 2003-07

ADR70/00 1996-02

ADR30/00 1988-95

Pre-ADR30 < 1988

ADR79/01 2006-09

ADR79/002004-05

ADR37/01 1999-03

ADR37/00 1989-98

ADR27 < 1989

ADR79/01/02 2007-13

ADR79/00 2003-06

ADR70/00 1996-02

ADR30/00 1988-95

Pre-ADR30 < 1988

2,000

8,000

7,000

14

6. References

ANSTO(2016),SydneyParticleCharacterisationStudy.PM2.5SourceApportionmentintheSydneyRegionbetween2000and2014. http://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/your-environment/air/regional-air-quality/sydney-particle-characterisation-study.

BellML,DominiciF(2008).Effectmodificationbycommunitycharacteristicsontheshort-termeffectsofozoneexposureandmortalityin98UScommunities.AmericanJournalofEpidemiology,167(8):986–997.

BTS(2011),SydneyStrategicTravelModel(STM),Modellingfuturetravelpatterns,BureauofTransportStatistics,February2011.

DECCW(2007),AirEmissionsInventoryfortheGreaterMetropolitanRegioninNSW,TechnicalReport1:CriteriaPollutantEmissionsforAllSectors. https://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/~/media/EPA/Corporate%20Site/resources/air/tr1aei0712.ashx

DepartmentofEnvironmentandEnergy(2018)Betterfuelforcleanerair-Draftregulationimpactstatement,January2018.

DEWHA(2009),SecondNationalIn-ServiceEmissionsStudy(NISE2),Lightdutypetrolvehicleemissionstesting:RTA.07.2828.0309finalreport,DepartmentoftheEnvironment,Water,HeritageandtheArts,March2009.https://www.environment.gov.au/archive/transport/publications/nise2.html

EPA(2012),AirEmissionsInventoryfortheGreaterMetropolitanRegioninNSW,2008CalendarYear,TechnicalReport7:On-roadMobileEmissions,EPA2012/0256,ISBN978-1-74293-557-7. https://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/your-environment/air/air-emissions-inventory/air-emissions-inventory-2008

EPA(2012a),AirEmissionsInventoryfortheGreaterMetropolitanRegioninNSW,2008CalendarYear,TechnicalReport1:ConsolidatedNaturalandHuman-MadeEmissions:Results,EPA2012/0255,ISBN978-1-74293-556-0. https://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/your-environment/air/air-emissions-inventory/air-emissions-inventory-2008

EPA(2017),CleanAirSummitBackgroundPapers http://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/your-environment/air/clean-air-nsw.

TDC(2010),2008/09HouseholdTravelSurvey;SummaryReport,2010Release,TransportDataCentre,June2010.

WHO(2013),Reviewofevidenceonhealthaspectsofairpollution–REVIHAAPproject,TechnicalReport,WorldHealthOrganisationRegionalOfficeforEurope,2013.

15

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Hydrocarbons

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Oxides of Nitrogen

0

1

2

3

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Carbon Monoxide

0

0.5

1

1.5

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

HC + NOx

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Particulate Matter

0

2

4

6

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Carbon Monoxide

0

0.5

1

1.5

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Hydrocarbons

Appendix A: Australian ADR Emission Limits

Figure A1: Petrol light duty carbon monoxide emission limits Figure A2: Petrol light duty hydrocarbon emission limits

Figure A3: Petrol light duty oxides of nitrogen emission limits Figure A4: Diesel light duty carbon monoxide emission limits

Figure A5: Diesel light duty combined hydrocarbon Figure A6: Diesel light duty particulate matter emission limits and oxides of nitrogen emission limits

16

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Hydrocarbons

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Oxides of Nitrogen

0

1

2

3

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Carbon Monoxide

0

0.5

1

1.5

1990 2000 2010 2020gr

ams

per k

ilom

etre

HC + NOx

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Particulate Matter

0

2

4

6

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Carbon Monoxide

0

0.5

1

1.5

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

met

re

Hydrocarbons

Figure A7: Diesel heavy duty carbon monoxide emission limits Figure A8: Diesel heavy duty hydrocarbon emission limits

Figure A9: Diesel heavy duty oxides of nitrogen emission limits Figure A10: Diesel heavy duty particulate matter emission limits

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

wat

t.hr

Oxides of Nitrogen

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1990 2000 2010 2020

gram

s pe

r kilo

wat

t.hr

Particulate Matter

17