Township of Ramara Documents/Strategic...Nov 21, 2016 · TOWNSHIP OF RAMARA CORPORATE STRATEGIC PLAN UPDATED November 21, 2016 •On July 1, 2016, Canada’s population was estimated

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TOWNSHIP OF RAMARA

Document Review and Environmental Scan

November 21, 2016

TOWNSHIP OF RAMARA CORPORATE STRATEGIC PLAN UPDATED November 21, 2016

• Documents reviewed included:

• Township of Ramara Strategic Plan

• Township of Ramara Official Plan

• Organization and Service Delivery and Review

• 2016 Resident Service Satisfaction Survey Results

• Township of Ramara Municipal Residential Land Budget

• County of Simcoe Official Plan

• County of Simcoe Strategic Plan

• Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

• Simcoe Area Growth Plan

• South Georgian Bay Lake Simcoe Source Protection Plan

• Lake Simcoe Protection Plan

• Ramara Creeks Subwatershed Plan

• Lake Country Business Retention & Expansion Project Report

• Simcoe Muskoka’s VitalSigns 2016 Report

• Other Strategic Plans (Township of Tay, Township of Severn, etc.)

Document Review


• We adopted a STEEP (Socio-cultural; Technological; Economics; Environmental; Political) approach for structuring the environmental scan

• Also included a high-level overview of agricultural trends and issues

• We have provided an overview of current trends for the Township of Ramara

• Sources include: Statistics Canada, Rural Ontario Institute, Canadian Rural Revitalization Report, and more

Environmental Scan


• Rapid aging in developed markets will create the greatest depopulation challenges with the most significant economic outcomes

• Emerging markets will contend with outward migration and “brain drain”

• The developing world is young and continues to grow

• Half of the global population is under the age of 25

Socio-Cultural Trends: Global


• On July 1, 2016, Canada’s population was estimated at 36 286 425 (up 437 815/1.2%) in the past year

• This is the largest population growth (in absolute numbers) since 1988/89

• Canada received 320 932 immigrants in the past year: Canada has not received as many immigrants in a single annual period since the early 1910s, during the settlement of Western Canada

• In 2016, one in two Canadians is at least 40.6 years of age. The median age has increased since 1984, when it was 30.6 years.

Socio-Cultural Trends: Canada


Canadian Population aged 0-14 and 65 years and over (1996-2036)

Socio-Cultural Trends


• Ontario’s population is projected to grow by 30.1%, or almost 4.2 million, over the next 26 years, from an estimated 13.8 million (July, 2015) to more than 17.9 million by 2041

• The number of seniors aged 65+ is projected to more than double from 2.2 million (16%) to 4.5 million (25.3%) by 2041

• Three census divisions surrounding the GTA will experience growth above the provincial average: Simcoe County (36.0%), Waterloo Region (33.3%) and Dufferin County (32%).

Socio-Cultural Trends: Ontario


• Central Ontario (Simcoe County) is forecasted to experience significant growth

• Simcoe County estimated to reach a population of 667 000 by 2031

Socio-Cultural Trends


• Rural Broadband Access

• Limited/poor access to high-speed internet continues to limit economic growth in rural and remote regions of Ontario

• Broadband is no longer recognized as a luxury – it is a basic infrastructure requirement

• The South Western Integrated Fibre Technology Initiative – aka SWIFT – has received $180 million to build a broadband network across South Western Ontario and Niagara Region

Technological Trends


• Federal Government Debt: Our federal debt continues to rise, and now stands at $612 billion

• Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA): CETA was adopted and signed at the EU-Canada summit on October 30, 2016

• Canada’s Slowing Growth: Canada is the 11th largest economy in the world, but is growing more slowly over time

• Canadian Oil Prices: The drop in oil prices in the second half of 2014 resulted in a 30% drop in investment by energy companies in 2015 with the weight being sufficient to drive the economy into negative growth territory for the first half of 2016

Economic Trends: Canada


• Ontario disposable income: For decades, households in Ontario had incomes as much as 20% above the Canadian average

• A steep decline over the past decade culminated in Ontario incomes falling below the national average for the first time

• Manufacturing Sector: After the 2008 economic crisis, manufacturing has significantly dropped in Ontario

• Manufacturing GDP dropped from 21.7% (2002) to 12.7 (2014)

• Agricultural Sector: While the number of farms continue to drop (further detail provided below), in 2011 total farm cash receipts grew by nearly $3 billion

Economic Trends: Ontario


• Rural challenges: While rural communities are essential to Canada’s economic/social/environmental health (generating 30% of Canada’s GDP), there is a lack of dedicated and predictable funding

• Service Provision Challenges: Less financial support to provide services means shorter term fiscal decision making and rationalization of services to larger (urban) centres

• There continues to be an expectation that municipalities will provide support, but the tax base may be shrinking for many rural areas

Regional/Municipal Economic Trends


• Accelerating global climate change: As extreme weather events become more frequent, the economic costs of climate change will continue to grow

• Increased pressure to food production systems: Extreme weather conditions (i.e. California drought) will continue to place new pressures on the food system.

• While climate change may create new opportunities for agricultural production (i.e. The Great Clay Belt Region in Ontario), it will become more challenging to ensure consistent yields

Environmental Trends: Global


• Paris Climate Agreement: Canada is among the 191 signatories to the international climate agreement

• The non-binding accord aims to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius this century

• Low-carbon future: Canada continues to work towards emission reduction through innovation and clean technology

• Carbon Pricing: Is meant to give people and companies an incentive to look for lower emission options to save money

• All provinces and territories may have some form of carbon pricing by 2018

Environmental Trends: Canada


• Cap and trade: Ontario is moving forward with a cap and trade program to reduce greenhouse gas pollution that is causing climate change

• On May 18th, 2016, Ontario passed the Climate Change Mitigation and Low-Carbon Economy Act

• Under this new legislation, money raised from Ontario’s cap and trade program will be deposited into a new Greenhouse Gas Reduction Account

Environmental Trends: Ontario


• Geopolitical realignment: Geopolitical instability is increasing. In 2016, Europe has continued to grapple with internal political challenges, violent extremism and the migrant crisis

• U.S Election 2016: Donald Trump won the 2016 U.S. Election. With both a republican House of Representatives and Senate, significant policy shifts are anticipated

• Among the most divisive elections in U.S. history, there are high levels of uncertainty for the future

Political Trends: Global


• Trudeau Government: Key issues for the new Trudeau government include developing a national climate change strategy, boosting the economy through reinvestment in infrastructure, the Syrian refugee crisis, electoral reform, legalization/regulation of marijuana, and developing nation-nation relations with First Nation, Inuit and Métis

Political Trends: Canada


• Hydro Prices: Although the average household consumes 25% less than a decade ago, Ontarians pay approximately $37 billion more than market price for electricity over an eight year period

• Political Fundraising: Bill 2 prohibits corporate and union donations and cuts annual contribution limits to $3600 starting on January 1, 2017

• Climate Change Action Plan: Ontario recently released the Climate Change Action Plan as a five-year plan to fight climate change in the long-term

Political Trends: Ontario


• While farms are increasing in size, there is a decline in the number of people farming

• Census records show that between 1991 and 2011, the average farm size increased from 598 to 788 acres, while the number of farm operators dropped by 24.8%

• Farm operators are approaching the age where they may retire: The 2011 Census found that farms with the oldest operators (55+) represent more than half of all farmers in 2011

Agricultural Trends


Population/Demographics

• Ramara is estimated to grow from 9275 (2011 Census) to 15 500 by 2031

• In 2011, the Township of Ramara had a population of 9275, representing a percentage change of -1.6% from 2006

• In 2011, the percentage of population aged 65 and over in Ramara was 23.1%, compared with a national percentage of 14.8%.

Township of Ramara


Household Income

• In 2011, the median household income in the Township was $65 221 (an increase of 23.9% since 2001)

Township of Ramara

Income Level Ramara Ontario Canada

Without Income

or < $27 815

48% 49% 50%

Without Income

or < $12 025

23.2% 25.6% 25%

$12 025 – $27

815

24.9% 24% 25%

$27 815 – $51

304

28.1% 23.8% 25%

$50 304 + 23.8% 26.6% 25%


• The Township of Ramara has a higher percentage of trades educated residents compared to Simcoe County and the province

• Compared to Ontario, the Township of Ramara and Simcoe County have a significantly lower proportion of university educated residents

Educational Attainment


• In 2011, Ramara had 3784 private dwellings

• Since 2001, the Township has experienced a very high percentage change (100.4%) in the average value of dwellings

• The 2011 average value was $333 658

• According to the Simcoe County Land Budget, Ramara has a total of 5904 housing units, with only 3784 designated as occupied housing units.

• The Township of Ramara has the second highest percentage of seasonal/vacant homes in the County at 35.9% (Tiny Township is 51.7%).

• The recent land budget analysis indicates that there is sufficient supply in the Township of Ramara to meet forecasted demand

Characteristic and Value of Dwellings


• The Township of Ramara’s economy is varied, with employment across a number of different sectors

• Construction (11%) and retail trade (10%) are the largest industries, while arts/entertainment/recreation jobs also constitute a large percentage of the employment base (7.0%)

• The Township of Ramara has consistently had a lower unemployment rate than Simcoe County and Ontario

Labour Force

Unemployment Rate (2001-2011)


• In broader categories (Primary, construction, manufacturing, production services, consumer services and government services), the Township’s labour force by industry breakdown looks like the following:

Labour Force

% Labour Force by Industry, 2006-2011


• Compared to 2001, the Township of Ramara has seen a significant reduction in the number of self-employed residents (19% - 11.3% in 2011)

• However, the Township continues to have a higher percentage of self-employed residents compared to Simcoe County (7.8%) and Ontario

Wage & Salary Employed vs. Self-Employed