Town Planning and Statistical Data The Case of Hong Kong Jimmy Leung Planning Department Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government

Town Planning and Statistical Data The Case of Hong Kong

Jimmy LeungJimmy Leung

Planning DepartmentPlanning Department

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region GovernmentHong Kong Special Administrative Region Government

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Aims of Town Planning in HKAims of Town Planning in HK

To provide a quality living environment, toTo provide a quality living environment, to facilitate economic development, and to facilitate economic development, and to promote the health, safety, convenience promote the health, safety, convenience and general welfare of the community and general welfare of the community by by guiding and controlling development and guiding and controlling development and the use of land. the use of land.

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Statistical Data for Town PlanningStatistical Data for Town PlanningTo support planning, we require data on:To support planning, we require data on:

• Overall HKOverall HK

• Small areas within HKSmall areas within HK

• Cross-boundary movement between HK and Cross-boundary movement between HK and the Mainlandthe Mainland

• Neighbouring areas of HKNeighbouring areas of HK

• HK residents living and working in the HK residents living and working in the MainlandMainland

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Sources of Statistical DataSources of Statistical Data

• Statistics compiled and surveys conducted by Statistics compiled and surveys conducted by the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) of HKof HK

• Administrative records of other government Administrative records of other government departmentsdepartments

• Surveys conducted by the Planning Surveys conducted by the Planning Department (PlanD)Department (PlanD)

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Data on Overall Hong KongData on Overall Hong Kong

• To enable planners to grasp the To enable planners to grasp the current social and economic current social and economic situation and trends of HK situation and trends of HK

• HK has its own statistical HK has its own statistical system system

• C&SD compiles very C&SD compiles very comprehensive official statisticscomprehensive official statistics

• C&SD also produces projections C&SD also produces projections of population, households and of population, households and employment for overall HK. employment for overall HK.

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Data on Small AreasData on Small Areas

• Small area statistics, such as population and Small area statistics, such as population and employment by small districts, are also employment by small districts, are also essential for planning at both territorial and essential for planning at both territorial and district levelsdistrict levels

• Some examples : Some examples :

• Socio-economic data of of population in Socio-economic data of of population in each district based on population each district based on population censuses and surveys by C&SDcensuses and surveys by C&SD

• administrative records of government administrative records of government departments, e.g. student places from departments, e.g. student places from Education BureauEducation Bureau

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Data on Small AreasData on Small Areas• PlanD also plays an PlanD also plays an

active role in active role in producing small area producing small area statistics. statistics.

• PlanD leads an inter-PlanD leads an inter-departmental Working departmental Working Group on Population Group on Population Distribution Distribution Projections (WGPD) Projections (WGPD) to produce to produce 10-year10-year population projections population projections of small areas in HKof small areas in HK

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• PlanD also produces projections of population PlanD also produces projections of population and employment by small areas for a longer and employment by small areas for a longer time span time span (the latest up to 2031), (the latest up to 2031), known as known as the Territorial Planning and Employment Data the Territorial Planning and Employment Data Matrix (TPEDM)Matrix (TPEDM)

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• The WGPD projections and TPEDM are used The WGPD projections and TPEDM are used by government departments, such as the by government departments, such as the Education Bureau, Water Supplies Education Bureau, Water Supplies Department, Transport Department, Department, Transport Department, Registration and Electoral Office for their own Registration and Electoral Office for their own planning and business purposes. planning and business purposes.

• This ensures that government departments This ensures that government departments are using a consistent set of data in their workare using a consistent set of data in their work

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Data on Cross-boundary MovementData on Cross-boundary Movement

• In 2007, on average In 2007, on average 442,000 passengers and 442,000 passengers and 42,000 vehicles crossed 42,000 vehicles crossed the boundary between the boundary between HK and the Mainland HK and the Mainland each day.each day.

• More HK people are More HK people are working and living in the working and living in the MainlandMainland

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• PlanD needs data on cross-boundary PlanD needs data on cross-boundary movements for planning of crossing facilitiesmovements for planning of crossing facilities

• Some data on cross-boundary passengers Some data on cross-boundary passengers and vehicles are available from the and vehicles are available from the administrative records of the Immigration administrative records of the Immigration Department and the Customs and Excise Department and the Customs and Excise DepartmentDepartment

• These data are very basic and cannot fully These data are very basic and cannot fully meet the need for planning, such as meet the need for planning, such as information on trip purpose, origin/destination, information on trip purpose, origin/destination, mode of transport.mode of transport.

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• To fill the data gap, PlanD To fill the data gap, PlanD launched a series of Cross-launched a series of Cross-boundary Travel Surveys boundary Travel Surveys on regularly since 1999.on regularly since 1999.

• Salient features of Cross-Salient features of Cross-boundary Travel Survey:boundary Travel Survey:

• Conducted in Conducted in 1999, 2001999, 2001, 2003, 2006 1, 2003, 2006 and and 20072007

• Two-week fieldwork Two-week fieldwork period in Nov/Dec of period in Nov/Dec of the yearthe year

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• Salient features:Salient features:

• Intercept passengers Intercept passengers and vehicle drivers at and vehicle drivers at the boundary crossings the boundary crossings and collect information and collect information through face-to-face through face-to-face interviewsinterviews

• Large scale, Large scale, interviewed 56,000 interviewed 56,000 passengers and 16,000 passengers and 16,000 vehicle drivers in the vehicle drivers in the 2007 round2007 round

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Data on Cross-boundary MovementData on Cross-boundary Movement• Salient features:Salient features:

• Covers all boundary crossings: air, road, Covers all boundary crossings: air, road, rail, ferry.rail, ferry.

• Covers all passengers: HK residents, HK Covers all passengers: HK residents, HK people living in the Mainland, Visitors from people living in the Mainland, Visitors from the Mainland and People living in other the Mainland and People living in other places.places.

• Major data items include trip purpose, Major data items include trip purpose, origin/destination, mode of transport, origin/destination, mode of transport, frequency of travel, duration of stay and frequency of travel, duration of stay and socio-economic characteristics of the trip socio-economic characteristics of the trip makersmakers

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Data on Neighbouring AreasData on Neighbouring Areas

• PlanD needs to PlanD needs to keep track of the keep track of the social and social and economic economic development of development of HK’s neighouring HK’s neighouring areas, in areas, in particular cities in particular cities in the Pearl River the Pearl River Delta.Delta.

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Data on Neighbouring AreasData on Neighbouring Areas

• Establishment of Establishment of the “Hong Kong-the “Hong Kong-Macao-Guangdong Macao-Guangdong Information Information Database” Database”

• Discussions on Discussions on planning planning information sharing information sharing with Shenzhen, with Shenzhen, Macao and Zhuhai Macao and Zhuhai

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Data on HK residents living and Data on HK residents living and working in the Mainlandworking in the Mainland

• Needed for planning infrastructure and Needed for planning infrastructure and community facilitiescommunity facilities

• Difficult to obtain information about them due Difficult to obtain information about them due to:to:

• their high mobility their high mobility

• their relatively small in number in the their relatively small in number in the MainlandMainland

• no complete and accurate list of them no complete and accurate list of them through administrative recordsthrough administrative records

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Data on HK residents living and Data on HK residents living and working in the Mainlandworking in the Mainland

• Initiatives by PlanD :Initiatives by PlanD :

• household surveys in HKhousehold surveys in HK

• surveys in the Mainland in surveys in the Mainland in cooperation with the cooperation with the Mainland statistical Mainland statistical agenciesagencies

• C&SD is also exploring with the National C&SD is also exploring with the National Bureau of Statistics to explore whether HK Bureau of Statistics to explore whether HK residents living in the Mainland can be residents living in the Mainland can be covered in China’s 2010 Population Censuscovered in China’s 2010 Population Census

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Example of application:Example of application:

Hong Kong 2030 : Hong Kong 2030 : Planning Vision and StrategyPlanning Vision and Strategy

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Purpose of StudyPurpose of Study• A strategic, territory-A strategic, territory-

wide planning wide planning framework to guide framework to guide development of land and development of land and infrastructureinfrastructure

• Assess development Assess development needs in the long term needs in the long term and formulate strategies and formulate strategies to respondto respond

• Contribute to achieving Contribute to achieving HK’s vision – HK’s vision – Asia’s Asia’s world cityworld city

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• Environmental• Social• Economic/ Financial• Transport• Land use

VISION FOR HK

REFERENCE

SCENARIO

BASELINE

OPTIONSOPTIONS PREFERREDOPTION

PREFERREDOPTION

Impact AnalysesImpact Analyses

Sensitivity Sensitivity AnalysesAnalyses

MONITORING SYSTEM

MONITORING SYSTEM

“WHAT IF” SCENARIOS

STRATEGYSTRATEGY

PLANNING OBJECTIVESPLANNING

OBJECTIVES

Performance Performance EvaluationEvaluation

Stage 1Stage 1 Stage 3Stage 3 Stage 4Stage 4Stage 2Stage 2

The Study ProcessThe Study Process

Public Engagement

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Defining Planning ObjectiveDefining Planning Objective

Four Major Areas of Concerns :Four Major Areas of Concerns :

• The Desired Living EnvironmentThe Desired Living Environment

• The National DimensionThe National Dimension

• The Changing EconomyThe Changing Economy

• Population DynamicsPopulation Dynamics

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The Desired Living The Desired Living Environment Environment

• Statistical data related to air Statistical data related to air pollution, air movement, pollution, air movement, water quality, waste water quality, waste generation, biodiversity, generation, biodiversity, energy consumption, traffic energy consumption, traffic movementmovement

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• Statistical data on cross-Statistical data on cross-boundary passenger, boundary passenger, vehicle and cargo vehicle and cargo movementsmovements

• Statistical data on Statistical data on Mainland’s economic and Mainland’s economic and social developmentsocial development

• National and regional plans National and regional plans and studiesand studies

The National DimensionThe National Dimension

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• Statistical data on the Statistical data on the HK economy, such as HK economy, such as GDP, employment, GDP, employment, visitor arrivals, cargoes, visitor arrivals, cargoes, import and export import and export tradestrades

The Changing EconomyThe Changing Economy

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Changes in the EconomyChanges in the Economy

0

1

2

3

4

5

Hon

g Kon

g

Japa

n

Kor

ea

Mal

aysi

a

Sing

apor

e

Taiw

an UK

USA

Per capita GDP Per capita GDP

20072007 (at current market (at current market prices)prices)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 2006

Percentage Percentage Contribution of Contribution of Services to GDPServices to GDP (at current factor cost)(at current factor cost)

73% 80% 91%

US$10,000 %

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• Statistical data on the Statistical data on the Hong Kong population Hong Kong population and its age-sex and its age-sex structure, labour force structure, labour force and households.and households.

Population DynamicsPopulation Dynamics

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6.7

5.85.1

4.0

3.1

2.1

7.17.7

8.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Million

Slowing of Population GrowthSlowing of Population Growth

0.5 m/decade

1.0 m/decade

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2.62.7

2.82.82.9

3.03.1

3.33.4

3.7

3.9

2.0

3.0

4.0

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Smaller HouseholdsSmaller Households

Persons

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Increasing MobilityIncreasing Mobility

124

160

147

128117111

99

8675

6560

154

0

50

100

150

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Cross-Boundary Passenger Movements

million

185

219248

281

317354

390

426

0

100

200

300

400

500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

thousand

Mobile Residents at Mid-Year

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Ageing of PopulationAgeing of Population

400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+ Male Female

Thousand persons

20362006

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Setting out Working AssumptionsSetting out Working Assumptions

• Population projectionsPopulation projections

• Employment projectionsEmployment projections

• Housing Land RequirementsHousing Land Requirements

• Economic Land RequirementsEconomic Land Requirements

• Port, Airport and Strategic Transport Port, Airport and Strategic Transport Infrastructure Requirements Infrastructure Requirements

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Analysis of the demographic and Analysis of the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of socio-economic characteristics of

the Tin Shui Wai New Townthe Tin Shui Wai New Town

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Tin Shui WaiTin Shui Wai

• A new town in A new town in the northwestern the northwestern part of HKpart of HK

• Developed in Developed in 1990’s, with a 1990’s, with a population of population of around 270000 around 270000 nownow

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Tin Shui WaiTin Shui Wai

• Infamous for being a community with family Infamous for being a community with family and social problems and social problems

• Some people attributed this to poor planningSome people attributed this to poor planning

• A comprehensive study using data from the A comprehensive study using data from the 2006 Population By-census was conducted to:2006 Population By-census was conducted to:

• understand the demographic and socio-economic understand the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population characteristics of the population

• identify issues and lessons related to planningidentify issues and lessons related to planning

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Tin Shui WaiTin Shui Wai• Characteristics of the community identified :Characteristics of the community identified :

• lower incomelower income• lower education levellower education level• higher unemployment ratehigher unemployment rate• higher proportion of young populationhigher proportion of young population• high concentration of public housinghigh concentration of public housing

• Lessons :Lessons :• higher proportion of young people and non-working higher proportion of young people and non-working

mother in the early stage of new town developmentmother in the early stage of new town development• need to provide recreation and social facilities for need to provide recreation and social facilities for

themthem• no direct relationship between town planning and no direct relationship between town planning and

family problemsfamily problems

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Cross-boundary Traffic PredictionCross-boundary Traffic Prediction

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Cross-boundary Traffic PredictionCross-boundary Traffic Prediction• Need to project cross-boundary passenger and Need to project cross-boundary passenger and

vehicular traffic for planning crossing facilitiesvehicular traffic for planning crossing facilities

Cost Elasticity

Model

Local Loaded Networks Guangdong Loaded Networks

Planning DataHong Kong Domestic Transport Model

Highways Networks Public Transport Networks

Freight Model Private Vehicle Model Total Public Transport Demand

Modal Split

Through Train, Boundary Train, Bus, Ferry Person Matrices

Public Transport Loading

Goods Vehicle and Container

Vehicle Demand Matrices

Private VehicleDemand Matrix

Highway Loading by Crossing Point

Bus Vehicle FlowsHighway Loaded Network

HighwaysModel

Public Transport

Model

Cross-boundary Transport Model (CBTM) Structure• A 4-stage transport model A 4-stage transport model to project the demandto project the demand

• Model requires a lot of Model requires a lot of statistical data in model statistical data in model development, calibration development, calibration and runsand runs

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Cross-boundary Traffic PredictionCross-boundary Traffic PredictionExamples of data applicationExamples of data application

• Administrative records :Administrative records :• trends of cross-boundary passengers and vehiclestrends of cross-boundary passengers and vehicles

• Cross-boundary Travel Survey results : Cross-boundary Travel Survey results : • breakdowns of passengers by different groups and breakdowns of passengers by different groups and

trip purposetrip purpose

• origins and destinations of the cross-boundary origins and destinations of the cross-boundary passengers and vehicles for prediction of trip endspassengers and vehicles for prediction of trip ends

• Projections of overall population : Projections of overall population :

• to derive the projected number of cross-boundary to derive the projected number of cross-boundary trips by applying the trip rate to the base populationtrips by applying the trip rate to the base population

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ConclusionConclusion• Statistical data are very important to planningStatistical data are very important to planning

• HK has already developed very good sources for HK has already developed very good sources for the full range of data for planningthe full range of data for planning

• Cross-boundary issues become an important Cross-boundary issues become an important dimension in planning dimension in planning

• Strong need to collect data on cross-boundary Strong need to collect data on cross-boundary movements and HK residents living and working in movements and HK residents living and working in the Mainlandthe Mainland

• Cooperation with the governments of neighbouring Cooperation with the governments of neighbouring areas on how to meet this need deserves further areas on how to meet this need deserves further explorationexploration

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Thank youThank you

Oct 2008Oct 2008

Documents

Town Planning and Statistical Data The Case of Hong Kong Jimmy Leung Planning Department Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government