Tourism: Second Pandemic Summer

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1TOURISM: SECOND PANDEMIC SUMMER | MONTHLY WATCH | JULY 2021

MONTHLY WATCH

Tourism: Second Pandemic Summer

JULY 2021

Irina KvakhadzeHead of Research

Maka KoridzeJunior Research Analyst

TOURISM: SECOND PANDEMIC SUMMER

2 TOURISM: SECOND PANDEMIC SUMMER | MONTHLY WATCH | JULY 2021

The most hardly hit industry has entered into the second summer of pandemic. Usually the highest harvest season for tourism, summer did give hope in 2021, however Covid-safety defines the future of the industry.

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July 2021 in BriefIn this edition of Tourism Monthly Watch, the reader will find that 2021 has been a relatively positive year for the in-dustry. The sector is growing according to all major indicators. However, recov-ery of the industry heavily depends on the pandemic situation. Vaccination and introduction of Covid-safety measures gives the industry a chance of revival.

In July 2021, number of international visitors surpassed its July 2020 level by 404%. Despite a significant growth, it still stands 73.8% below its 2019 July lev-el.

In July 2021 share of neighbor countries in international visitors was reduced to 38%. Now majority of the tourists came from Ukraine, Israel, the EU and the Mid-dle East countries.

International visits from Ukraine ap-peared the most resilient to crisis – in July number of international visitors from Ukraine recovered to 97% of its 2019 July level. Israel and Middle East countries also showed strong recovery in July compared to July 2019, 77% and 65% respectively.

Air travel takes larger share, 60%, in July 2021 as majority of the tourists come from non-neighbor countries. Air travel recovers to 73% of its July 2019 level. Ar-rivals of international visitors in Batumi airport even surpass its 2019 level by 12%.

Revenues from international visitors show stronger recovery in July 2021 reaching 52% of its 2019 July level. Ukraine, Israel, EU and UK, and Saudi

Arabia contributed the most – 47.5% to the total revenues from international vis-itors in July 2021.

July 2021 shows strong, 98% increase of average spending per visitor compared to July 2019. The result could be ex-plained by increased length of stay.

Hotel occupancy is only 11 percentage point behind its 2019 July level, with large hotels almost reaching their 2019 level. Strong recovery of occupancy rates could be explained by active do-mestic tourism.

Average daily rate (ADR) is also on the rise since march 2021. In July, ADR reached USD 112, just 14% less than its 2019 July level.



Georgia – an attractive destination during pandemic?From April 2021 through July 2021, tourism, the industry mostly hit by the pandemic in Georgia, saw a spark of a hope. Could this be a sign of a steady recovery? No surprise that outcomes are still governed by the pandemic. A close look at the major factors that drive travel choices shows that Covid-safety and ease of travel decide it all. Severity of pandemic, as well as travel restrictions and requirements in the source and destination countries are what travelers look at mostly when choos-ing a destination in the times of pandemic.

Relatively low number of new Covid-cases in February-June 2021, removal of trav-el restrictions and curfew, opening of stores and restaurants, gave the industry a chance to start it over.

From the second half of July 2021, a new wave of pandemic with record high num-bers of new daily cases and fatalities, slowly brought back doubts and uncertain-ties.

The containment of the virus largely defines the future of tourism worldwide and Georgia is no exception. August 2021 has shown that aggressive spread of virus, without sufficient share of vaccinated population, results in the overload of hospi-tal sector, high death tolls, and consequently, policy responses that limit rebound opportunities for the tourism sector.

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Georgia on the destination map of international visitorsAs countries slowly adapt to the new normal, get out of the lockdowns and continue to operate with the help of vaccination and Covid-safety rules, peo-ple gain courage to step on the foreign lands again. By the end of July 2021, 695028 international visitors have visit-ed Georgia in total. This means a 17 per-cent recovery to 2019 level of the same period.

First two months of the summer 2021 had impressive rebound compared to the previous year. June 2021 closed with 287% increase of international visitor trips to Georgia compared to the same month of 2020. July showed even bet-

ter results, 404% YoY growth of interna-tional visits. Removal of travel and other restrictions positively affected the out-comes.

Despite the impressive YoY growth in the two months of summer 2021, the recovery to 2019 level is still modest. In July 2021, international visitor trips are still 73.8% away from the level achieved in July 2019.

FIGURE 01

Source: GNTA

June and July 2021 recover modestly to 2019 level

-79,8% -73,8%

287%

404%

-200,0%

-100,0%

0,0%

100,0%

200,0%

300,0%

400,0%

500,0%

Jan-2021 Feb-2021 Mar-2021 Apr-2021 May-2021 Jun-2021 Jul-2021

Compared to 2019 YoY Change



When times are normal, seasonal spikes are characteristic to tourism industry in Georgia. Number of international visitor trips starts to increase from the end of June, peaks in August and then declines from September.

Inflow of international visitors also shows seasonality in 2021. What is dif-ferent from 2019 is the MoM growth rate.

Delayed demand and lower base push MoM growth rates higher in 2021. De-layed demand keeps seasonal increases higher and declines lower. 2020 was also a proof to this – international visitors trips did decline after a surge in summer 2020, however, the rate of decline was lower than in autumn 2019.

FIGURE 2 & 3

MoM change is faster in 2021

Source: GNTA

Seasonality and delayed demand effects could suggest flattening of international visitors’ trend or mildly negative changes provided that currently el-evated Covid risks are mitigated.

18%21%

40%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jun. Jul.

2019 2021

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2019 2021

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Different Picture: neighbor coun-tries have the least share In July 2019, Georgia received the most, 72% of its international visitors from neighbor countries – Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia, and Armenia. July 2021 gives a different picture, the share of neighbor countries is reduced to 38%. Azerbaijan’s

share in this reduction is the largest, 31%. This could be explained by the closed borders maintained by Azerbaijan.

FIGURE 4

Only 38% of travelers come from neighbor countries

18%16%

18%20%

3% 3%1%

6%4%

12%15%

9%11%

4%

11%8%

1%

9% 10%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Turkey

Armenia

Russia

Azerb

aijan

UkraineIsrael

USA EU

Middle East

Other

Jul-2019 Jul-2021Source: GNTA



In July 2021 the number of international visitors from Ukraine has recovered to 97% of its 2019 level. Next comes Israel with 77% of recovery to its July 2019 lev-el. Middle East countries, especially Sau-

A closer look at the recovery of travel to 2019 levels shows that trips from Ukraine were the most resil-ient to crisis.

di Arabia, also contribute to the growth of International visitors, the number of trips from Middle East has recovered to 65% of its July 2019 level.

FIGURE 5

Recovery of international visitor trips to 2019 levels (%)

Source: GNTA

2214 16

5

97

77

5137

6552

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Turkey

Armenia

Russia

Azerbaija

n

Ukraine

Israe

lUSA EU

Middle East

Other

Jan-2021 Feb-2021 Mar-2021 Apr-2021

May-2021 Jun-2021 Jul-2021 2019 Level

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International visitors’ trips from Ukraine, Israel and Middle East have a better re-covery than other countries not only in July 2021, but also in total in 2021. Total International visitors’ trips from Ukraine constituted 58% of its January-July 2019

level, Israel is only 2% behind Ukraine in terms of recovery, Middle East also on a strong track with 43% recovery to its 2019 level. Azerbaijan maintains the low-est, 5% recovery.

FIGURE 6

Total international visitor trips in January-July 2021 com-pared to January-July 2019

24%

10% 8%5%

58% 56%

30%23%

43%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Turkey

Armenia

Russia

Azerbaija

n

Ukraine

Israe

lUSA EU

Middle East

Other

Covid-safety in source and destination countries drive travel decisions. Travelers from countries with the higher vaccination rates show higher recovery. Recovery will face the risk if source countries move Georgia to red zone due to aggravated Covid situation.

Source: GNTA



Air Travel takes larger share in July 2021The distribution of international visitor trips among countries has changed in July 2021 compared to July 2019 and so has the distribution of arrivals among borders. In July 2019, majority of the tour-ists (76%) arrived through land borders, which is logical as Georgia received most of its tourist from neighbor coun-tries. In July 2021 the picture changed in favor to air travel, 60% of internation-al visitors arrived through Georgian air-ports. The result is no surprise as in July 2021 majority of the visitors came from Ukraine, Israel, Middle East, the EU and the US.

In July 2021 air travels recovered to 73% of its 2019 level; Georgia opened its land borders since 1st of June 2021, however, the arrivals through land borders recov-ered only to 13% of its 2019 level.

Visits through Tbilisi’s International Air-port accounted for 58.9% of total air vis-its in July 2021, 32% of visitors traveled through Batumi’s International Airport and 9% of total visits was through Kutai-si International Airport. Arrivals through Batumi airport do catch an eye, we see 12% increase of arrivals in July 2021 com-pared to July 2019.

FIGURE 7

International Visitor Trips by Borders (% change relative to 2019)

4% 5%11%

22%30%

39%

73%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


Land Air Sea Railway 2019 Level

Source: GNTA

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The Revenue Side How has a modest rebound of interna-tional visitors trips translated into the revenues? Whereas the internation-al trips in July 2021 recovered to only 26.2% of 2019 July levels, the revenues generated from visitors seem to be on

a stronger track of recovery, revenues in July have recovered to 52% of 2019 July level. As for the total revenue generated from visitors in Jan-July 2021, it consti-tutes 27% of total revenues generated in Jan-July 2019.

6%8%

12%

19%

27%

36%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

FIGURE 8

Revenues from visitors in 2021 compared to 2019 levels

Source: NBG



Non-residents’ spending through TBC Bank channels in July 2021 shows even stronger recovery. It has surpassed its 2019 level by 26%, while June stood 20% less of its 2019 level. Such a result could be attributed to eased restric-tions, including removal of the curfew and relatively low number of daily Cov-

id-19 cases in Georgia. After such a rise in July, non-resident non-cash spending through TBC Bank’s channels showed a downward trend in the beginning of Au-gust, partially due to the increased dai-ly number of Covid-19 cases not only In Georgia, but in other countries as well.

Source: TBC Bank

FIGURE 9

Non-cash spending by non residents

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-

20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Apr

-20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-

20

Aug

-20

Sep-

20

Oct

-20

Nov

-20

Dec

-20

Jan-

21

Feb

-21

Mar

-21

Apr

-21

May

-21

Jun-

21

Jul-

21

1-7

Aug

8-14

Aug

10-1

6 A

ug

Non-cash expenses of non-residents (TBC Bank channels)

2019 level

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In 2021 the shares of countries in terms of international visitors has changed, so has the share of countries in terms of revenues generated from international visitors. Neighbor countries have less share, whereas Ukraine, Israel and Saudi Arabia show increase compared to 2019. In 2019, 53% of total revenues generat-

ed in January-July came from neighbor countries, with Russia having the largest share, 28%. In 2021, the share of neighbor countries in total revenues generated in January-July was reduced to 27%.

Source: NBG

FIGURE 10

Share of countries in Revenues Generated by Internation-al Visitors

Ukraine, Israel, EU and UK, and Saudi Arabia are now contributing the most – 47.3% to the total revenues from international visitors.

14,5%

17,8%

6,2% 7,1%5,5%

15,8%

2,9%

7,1% 7,4%

15,9%

6,7%9,4%

14,7%

2,9% 1,7%

14,1%

0,3%

10,0%8,5%

31,7%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

35,0%

Turkey

Russia

Ukraine

Azerb

aijan

Armenia

EU+UK

Iran

Israe

l

Saudi A

rabia

Other

Countries

Jul-2019 Jul-2021



As said above, the recovery of revenues to 2019 levels is faster than the recovery of international visitor’ trips. This indi-cates at the increase of average spend-ing. In July 2021, average spending per visitor constituted GEL 889 - 98% more

As Global Data Poll Results suggest, longer trips are in-creasingly in demand post COVID-19. Accidental sav-ers and people, eager to change lockdown locations drive this demand. The new normal, working remotely also drives the demand on longer stays.

than average spending per visitor in July 2019 (GEL 448). Seven month average by July 2021 was 61% more than 7 month average of 2019 July. The increase of av-erage spending could be a result of in-creased average length of stay.

FIGURE 11

Share of countries in Revenues Generated by Internation-al Visitors (January-July)

Source: NBG

13%

28%

6%7%

5%

14%

3%6%

3%

15%

10%11%

15%

4%2%

12%

0%

13%

5%

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Turkey Russia Ukraine Azerbaijan Armenia EU+UK Iran Israel SaudiArabia

OtherCountries

2019 2020

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-50%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan-2020

Feb-2020

Mar-2020

Apr-2020

May-2020

Jun-2020

Jul-2020

Aug-2020

Sep-2020

Oct-2020

Nov-2020

Dec-2020

Jan-2021

Feb-2021

Mar-2021

Apr-2021

May-2021

Jun-2021

Jul-2021

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the revenue of Tbilisi’s Airbnb market is far behind its 2019 level. However, some improvement can be seen since Janu-ary. As pandemic situation was relatively stable, with low number of daily Cov-

id-19 cases. Change relative to 2019, to-taled -50% in July, up from -67% in June. Improvement in the market revenue is mainly attributable to the increased number of international visitors in July

FIGURE 12

Tbilisi Airbnb Market Revenue (change relative to 2019)

Source: Airdna



Summer of 2021 for the hotels in GeorgiaAverage occupancy in hotels in Georgia reached 53% in July 2021, up from 40% in June. Increased number of internation-al visitors as well as domestic demand push the occupancy level up. However, it is still 11 percentage point behind its 2019 July level. In July 2020, large hotels have reached 68% of average occupan-cy, almost recovering to their 2019 levels.

Apart from increase of domestic and international demand, this result can partially be explained by the increased safety measures, different discounts and incentives offered by these hotels. Meanwhile, the average occupancy in Medium and Small hotels totaled 42%, which is far behind the level of 2019 (60%).

FIGURE 13

Average Hotel Occupancy

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan.

19Fe

b.19

Mar

.19A

pr.19

May

.19Ju

n.19

Jul.1

9A

ug.19

Sep.

19O

ct.19

Nov

.19D

ec.19

Jan.

20Fe

b.20

Mar

.20A

pr.2

0M

ay.2

0Ju

n.20

Jul.2

0A

ug.20

Sep.

20O

ct.2

0N

ov.2

0D

ec.20

Jan.

21Fe

b.21

Mar

.21A

pr.2

1M

ay.2

1Ju

n.21

Jul.2

1

Georgia Large Hotels Medium and Small hotels

Source: TBC Capital survey;

* Large hotels: more than 80 rooms, small and medium hotels: less than 80 rooms

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A significant improvement is observed for Kakheti, where average occupancy stood at 61% in July 2021, higher than of the same period in 2019 (37%). Such an increase in the average occupancy can be due to the active domestic tourism and Kakheti’s proximity to Tbilisi. These factors, coupled with the increased vari-

ety of hotels and activities offered in the region, made Kakheti an attractive spot for both international and domestic tourists. Average occupancy in hotels of Tbilisi totaled only 44%, while stood at 68% in July, 2019. Occupancy is also down in Seaside by 7 percentige point relative to 2019.

FIGURE 14

Average Occupancy by Region

Source: TBC Capital survey

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jan.

19Fe

b.19

Mar

.19A

pr.19

May

.19Ju

n.19

Jul.1

9A

ug.19

Sep.

19O

ct.19

Nov

.19D

ec.19

Jan.

20Fe

b.20

Mar

.20A

pr.2

0M

ay.2

0Ju

n.20

Jul.2

0A

ug.20

Sep.

20O

ct.2

0N

ov.2

0D

ec.20

Jan.

21Fe

b.21

Mar

.21A

pr.2

1M

ay.2

1Ju

n.21

Jul.2

1

Tbilisi Seaside Kakheti Other regions



As industry started to somewhat recov-er in spring, it also affected the prices of accommodations. According the survey conducted by TBC Capital, ADR in ho-tels started to improve, relative to 2019, already in March, 2021 and continued positive dynamics since then. In the month of July, when the number of inter-

national visitors and occupancy in ho-tels were the highest since the begin-ning of the pandemic, ADR was behind 2019 by only 14%.

FIGURE 15

Average Daily Rate (change relative to 2019

-14%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Jan-2020

Feb-2020

Mar-2020

Apr-2020

May-2020

Jun-2020

Jul-2020

Aug-2020

Sep-2020

Oct-2020

Nov-2020

Dec-2020

Jan-2021

Feb-2021

Mar-2021

Apr-2021

May-2021

Jun-2021

Jul-2021

Source: TBC Capital survey

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Increased number of international visi-tors, domestic tourism and seasonality pushes up recovery of non-cash spend-ing in hotels in July 2021. Total non-cash spending in hotels, through TBC Bank’s channels, continued to improve since January, however growth is still behind 2019 level by 4%. Even better recovery

is observed in the regions, where in July, non-cash spending in hotels surpassed 2019 by 7%, up from -31% in June. As for Tbilisi, growth is still on negative territo-ry, since the beginning of the year and totaled -16% in July.

FIGURE 16

Non-cash spending in hotels by region (change relative to 2019)

Source: TBC Bank

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

Jan-2021

Feb-2021

Mar-2021

Apr-2021

May-2021

Jun-2021

Jul-2021

Tbilisi Regions Total



In July non-cash spending is above its 2019 level in hostels, small and family hotels, and in Hotels with more than 120 rooms, while it is still behind its 2019 lev-el in hotels with 50-120 rooms. Growth relative to 2019, totaled 49% in hostels, small and family hotels, which can be partially attributable to the increased

share of non-cash payments. Since the beginning of pandemic, more family and small hotels partially or fully transitioned to non-cash payments. Growth is also on the positive territory for large hotels with more than 120 rooms, mostly due to the activation of international tourism.

FIGURE 17

Non-cash spending in hotels by size (change relative to 2019)

Source: TBC Bank

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Jan-21

Feb-21

Mar-21

Apr-21

May-21

Jun-21

Jul-21

Hostels, small and family hotels Hotels (50-120 rooms) Hotels (>120 rooms)

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Share of international and domestic tourists in non-cash expenditures in ho-tels has changed since January 2021. As the number of international visitors grows, the share of domestic tourists in non-cash expenditure declines.

The recovery of international inflow is already visible from February 2021. Since then, a share of non-cash spending in hotels by non-residents, gradually in-creases and reaches 71% in July 2021

FIGURE 18

Share in non-cash expenditures in hotels

Source: TBC Bank

87,3%

77,9%

61,7%

46,3%

39,8%

35,0%

29,2%

12,7%

22,1%

38,3%

53,7%

60,2%

65,0%

70,8%

0,0%

20,0%

40,0%

60,0%

80,0%

100,0%

120,0%


Non-cash spending by Domestic Visitors Non-cash spending By International Visitors



35,3

%

29,5

%

69,4

%

60,7

%

65,6

%

44,6

%

54,0

% 80,8

%

54,1%

57,2

% 76,9

%

64,7

%

70,5

%

30,6

%

39,3

%

34,4

%

55,4

%

46,0

% 19,2

%

45,9

%

42,8

% 23,1%

0,0%

20,0%

40,0%

60,0%

80,0%

100,0%

120,0%

Adjara

Tbilisi

Imereti

Guria

Kakheti

Mtsk

heta-Mtia

neti

Samegrelo Zemo Sva

neti

Racha-Lechkhumi K

vemo Svan

eti

Shida Kart

li

Samtskhe-Javakh

eti

Kvemo Kartli

Non-cash Spending by Domestic Visitors Non-cash Spending by International Visitors

Share of non-cash payments by domes-tic tourists varies from region to region, the highest share is in Racha-Lechkhu-mi Kvemo Svaneti and Kvemo Kartli, regions that are becoming more and more popular not only among interna-tional, but Georgian travelers as well. Adjara, Tbilisi and Mtskheta-mtianeti

are regions, where non-cash spending by non-residents is higher, which can be due to the concentration of branded ho-tels and variety of activities for tourists, coupled with the popularity of these destinations.

FIGURE 19

Share in non-cash expenditures in hotels by region

Source: TBC Bank

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Tourism: Second Pandemic Summer