Total United States Occupancy and ADR Percent Change YTD … · 2012. 3. 6. · 1 InduSTRy Overview Brittany Baldwin Director of Business Development, Destinations SOVA Meeting Symposium-

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InduSTRy Overview

Brittany Baldwin Director of Business Development, Destinations

SOVA Meeting Symposium- March 5, 2012

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www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Hotel Data Presentations”

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Agenda :

• Total U.S. Review

• Oregon & Neighbors

• Oregon Area Market

• Submarkets

• Pipeline

• Forecast

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2011: The World Recovered

Markets with Positive REVPAR % Change

Americas: 194 of 212

Europe: 84 of 98 Asia Pac: 38 of 47

Middle East / Africa: 19 of 33

*RevPAR in local currency Source: STR Global

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Total US Review

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Supply / Demand Imbalance Drove 2011 Results

% Change

• Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.6%

• Room Demand* 1.06 bn 5.0%

• Occupancy 60.1% 4.4%

• ADR $102 3.7%

• RevPAR $61 8.2%

• Room Revenue* $108 bn 8.8%

Full Year 2011 Total US Results * All Time High

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On An Annualized Basis: Most Rooms Sold - EVER

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Bill

ion

s

Total U.S. Number of Rooms Sold, 12 MMA, 1/89 – 12/11

8

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Supply Demand

Strongest Demand Rebound Ever. Supply Line Turning

-6.9%

-0.9%

- 4.7%

Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/89 – 12/11

9

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

ADR Demand

ADR Changes Got More Erratic in Each Downturn

-8.6%

-0.1%

- 4.5%

Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA, 1/89 – 12/11

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ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases

95

100

105

110

2008 2009 2010 2011

*Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA 2007 - 2011

Apr ‘10 $97

Sept ‘08 $108

Dec ‘11 $102

+4.6%

-10%

19 Months

19 Months

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012F

Nominal ADR

2000 / 2007 Grown by CPI

2000 ADR Grown By CPI

* Total US, ADR $ and Inflation Adjusted ADR $, 2000 – 2013F 2000 – 2010 CPI from bls.gov, 2011 – 2013 CPI from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

$85

$101

$104

$85

$107 $109

$107

$117

2013F

Inflation Adjusted ADRs Well Out Of Reach

2007 ADR Grown By CPI

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U.S. Chain Scales

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• Luxury – Fairmont, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, JW Marriott

• Upper Upscale – Sheraton, Embassy Suites, Hyatt, Marriott

• Upscale – Radisson, Hilton Garden Inn, Residence Inn, Springhill Suites, Homewood Suites, Courtyard, Best Western Premier

• Upper Midscale – Fairfield Inn/Suites, Holiday Inn, Clarion, Hampton Inn/Suites, Best Western PLUS, Country Inn & Suites

• Midscale –, Best Western, Candlewood Suites, Quality Inn/Suites

• Economy – Extended Stay America, Red Roof, Days Inn, Microtel

2012 STR Chain Scales

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Demand Recovery Strongest At Upper End

269

437

315

436

Luxury/Upper Up/Upscale UpperMid/Midscale/Economy

2007 2011

*Total Room Demand in Millions, by Combined Scales, 2007 & 2011

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No Surprise Here: Room Revenue Grows At Upper End As Well

42

33

45

32

Luxury/Upper Up/Upscale UpperMid/Midscale/Economy

2007 2011

*Total Room Revenue in Billions $, by Combined Scales, 2007 / 2011

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Do You Really Know Your Competitors?

National Nameback %:

45%

* % of hotels that use hotels in their compset which have named them Source: STR Analytics

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Segmentation Review

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Transient Demand Breaks Records, But....

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12.5

15

17.5

20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2007 2010 2011

*Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms; 2007, 2010, 2011 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

Mill

ion

s

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… Transient ADR Still Lags 2007 Results

$140

$150

$160

$170

$180

$190


2007 2010 2011

*Transient ADR $, 2007, 2010, 2011 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

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Group Demand Has Not Changed Over Time, But…

4

6

8

10

12


Millio

ns

2007 2010 2011

*Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 2007, 2010, 2011 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

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… Group ADR Does Not Increase (& Could Depress Future Absolute ADRs)

$130

$140

$150

$160

$170


2008 2010 2011

*Group ADR $, 2008, 2010, 2011 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents)

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Oregon & Neighbors

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YE 2011 – All Regions Recovered

Occupancy: ▲ 4.5 % ADR: ▲ 5.5 %

RevPAR: ▲ 10.3 %

Occupancy: ▲ 5 % ADR: ▲ 3.3 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.4 %

Occupancy: ▲ 2.6 % ADR: ▲ 3.8 %

RevPAR: ▲ 6.5 %

Occupancy: ▲ 5.5 % ADR: ▲ 2.8 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.5 %

Occupancy: ▲ 5.1 % ADR: ▲ 3.2 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.4 %

Occupancy: ▲ 2.9 % ADR: ▲ 2.7 %

RevPAR: ▲ 5.7 %

Occupancy: ▲ 4.2 % ADR: ▲ 2.7 %

RevPAR: ▲ 7 %

Occupancy: ▲ 3.5 % ADR: ▲ 4.4 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.1 %

Occupancy: ▲ 5.2% ADR: ▲ 3.2 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.6 %

TOTAL US

Occupancy: ▲ 4.4 %

ADR: ▲ 3.7 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.2 %

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January 2012- Strong RevPAR Growth For Most

Occupancy: ▲ 3.6 % ADR: ▲ 5.2 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.9 %

Occupancy: -2.2 % ADR: ▲ 4.9 %

RevPAR: ▲ 2.7 %

Occupancy: ▲ 4.5 % ADR: ▲ 4.5 %

RevPAR: ▲ 9.3 %


RevPAR: ▲ 12.2 %

Occupancy: ▲ 7.9 % ADR: ▲ 4.7 %

RevPAR: ▲ 13 %

Occupancy: ▲ 5.2 % ADR: ▲ 2.4 %

RevPAR: ▲ 7.6 %

Occupancy: ▲ 4.4 % ADR: ▲ 3.6 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.1 %

Occupancy: ▲ 4.1 % ADR: ▲ 0.3 %

RevPAR: ▲ 4.4 %

Occupancy: ▲ 6.8% ADR: ▲ 4.3 %

RevPAR: ▲ 11.3 %

TOTAL US

Occupancy: ▲ 4.1 %

ADR: ▲ 3.9 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.1 %

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Idaho RevPAR; Nevada Occupancy???

January 2012


RevPAR: ▲ 7.6 %

Occupancy: ▲ 1.2 % ADR: ▲ 2.7 %

RevPAR: ▲ 3.9 %

Occupancy: ▲ 3.4 % ADR: ▲ 4.2 %

RevPAR: ▲ 7.7 %

Occupancy: -5.6 % ADR: ▲ 8.5 %

RevPAR: ▲ 2.4 %

Occupancy: ▲ 5.2 % ADR: ▲ 3.4 %

RevPAR: ▲ 8.8 %

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Oregon Area Market

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Oregon Area Seeing Declines for 2012 ?

% Change

• # of Hotels 646

• Hotel Rooms 38,631

• Occupancy 33.8% -2.9%

• ADR $74.06 0.3%

• RevPAR $25.06 -2.7%

• Room Revenue $ 30M -2.0%

Oregon Area Market- Key Statistics January 2012

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Large Demand Spike for 2011

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Supply % Change Demand % Change

Oregon Area Mkt, Supply & Demand% Change, 12 MMA, 01/07– 12/11

-7.1%

5.3%

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-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2009 2011

ADR OCC

-9%

5.3%

7.5%

Rate Not Affected As Badly As Total U.S.

Oregon Area Mkt , ADR & Occupancy % Change, 12 MMA, 2007 – 12/11

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Weekday/Weekend & Segmentation

Weekday = Sunday – Thursday Weekend = Friday & Saturday

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30

40

50

60

70


2008 2009 2010 2011

Weekday Occupancy: Not The Best

Oregon Area Market Weekday Occupancy by Month, Jan’08 – Jan’12

Jan 32.4 %

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$70

$80

$90

$100


2008 2009 2010 2011

Jan $73.33

Weekday ADR: Average Rate Increase of $1

Oregon Area Market Weekday ADR by Month, Jan’08 – Jan’12

34

35

45

55

65

75

85


2008 2009 2010 2011

Jan 37.9 %

Weekend Occupancy: On Par With Prior Years

Oregon Area Mkt Weekend Occupancy by Month, Jan’08 – Jan’12

35

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110


2008 2009 2010 2011

Jan $75.85

Weekend ADR: Good Start

Oregon Area Market Weekend ADR by Month, Jan’08 – Jan’12

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Transient Demand Holding Steady….

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Trans. Demand % Chg Trans. ADR % Chg

Oregon Area Market: Transient Room Demand & ADR % Change By Month Jan. 2006 – Jan 2012

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Different Story On The Group Side

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Group Demand % Chg Group ADR % Chg

Oregon Area Market: Group Room Demand & ADR % Change By Month Jan. 2006 –Jan 2012

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Oregon Area Submarkets

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1.9

1.0

2.9

1.6

0.1

-0.3

1.7

0.0

0.4

-0.2

1.9

-0.4 -0.3

2.2

3.3

-0.6

YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 Jan-12

Eugene Seeing the Supply Growth

Supply % Chng vs. LY for Oregon Area Mkt & Submkts YE 2009 – 2011; January 2012

40

-5.3 -4.9

-8.7

-1.4

3.1 3.8

5.1

6.2

0.3 0.9

1.6

-0.6

0.0

-14.4

-0.8

2.1

YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 Jan-12

Oregon East Demand Drop Off…

Demand % Chng vs. LY for Oregon Area Mkt & Submkts YE 2009 – 2011; January 2012

41

-6.2 -5.8

-11.3

-3.0

3.7 4.2 3.4

6.2

-0.6

1.2

-0.3 -0.2

0.0

-16.2

-4.0

2.7

YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 Jan-12

Explaining Double Digit Decline in OCC

OCC % Chng vs. LY for Oregon Area Mkt & Submkts YE 2009 – 2011; January 2012

42

2.9

-1.6

-7.0

-1.5

0.9

0.3

-1.0 -0.2

0.7

2.1

3.4

1.4

-0.4

3.8

-5.1

1.4

YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 Jan-12

East OCC Decline, But Rate Grows …

ADR % Chng vs. LY for Oregon Area Mkt & Submkts YE 2009 – 2011; January 2012

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-3.4

-7.4

-17.5

-4.4

4.6 4.4

2.3

5.9

0.1

3.2 3.1 1.2

-0.4

-13.0

-8.9

4.1

YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2011 Jan-12

Medford Only Region w/RevPAR Growth

RevPAR % Chng vs. LY for Oregon Area Mkt & Submkts YE 2009 – 2011; January 2012

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Pipeline

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Pipeline Definitions:

In Construction: Ground broken or bids on general contractor being made

Final Planning: project out for bids, or construction to start within 4 months Planning: An architect/engineer selected & plans are underway. (Initial approvals have usually been granted) Pre-Planning: No architect has been selected

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Total Oregon Active Development Pipeline

Phase Projects

(January 2012)

In Construction 2

Final Planning 4

Planning 6

Active Pipeline 12

Pre-Planning 2

Total 14

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Oregon Area Market Active Development Pipeline

Phase Projects

(January 2012)

In Construction 2

Final Planning 1

Planning 5

Active Pipeline 8

Pre-Planning 2

Total 10

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Oregon Area Market Top 3 Largest Projects - Active Pipeline

Project Name Tract Name Project Phase Room Count

Unnamed Hotel

Oregon West Area

Planning

100

Candlewood Suites Salem

Oregon West Area

Planning

89

Hampton Inn & Suites Astoria Oregon West Area In Construction

87

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2012 / 2013 Forecast

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Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012

Phase Dec 2011 Dec 2010 Dec 2007

In Construction 54 52 211

“Planned Pipeline” 254 265 204

Active Pipeline 308 317 415

*Total US Pipeline, in ‘000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge

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Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change

2012 Forecast

2013 Forecast

Supply 0.8% 1.4%

Demand 1.3% 2.0%

Occupancy 0.5% 0.5%

ADR 3.8% 4.4%

RevPAR 4.3% 4.9%

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Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale

Chain Scale Occupancy

(% chg) ADR

(% chg) RevPAR (%chg)

Luxury 2.7% 4.7% 7.4%

Upper Upscale 0.1% 3.5% 3.6%

Upscale 2.0% 4.5% 6.6%

Upper Midscale -0.3% 3.7% 3.4%

Midscale 1.0% 0.8% 1.8%

Economy 0.7% 2.4% 3.1%

Independent -0.3% 3.4% 3.1%

Total United States 0.5% 3.8% 4.3%

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2012 Year End RevPAR Forecast (as of 3rd QTR 2011 forecast)

-5% to 0% 0% to 5% 5% to 10% 10% to 15%

Nashville St Louis

Los Angeles-Long Beach Miami-Hialeah

Philadelphia Detroit

Anaheim-Santa Ana Boston

Orlando Minneapolis-St Paul

Washington DC New Orleans

Atlanta San Diego

Norfolk-Virginia Beach Oahu Island

Tampa-St Petersburg

Seattle

Phoenix

Houston

Dallas

San Francisco-San Mateo

Chicago

New York

Denver

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Top 10 US Market Performance Forecasted Occupancy/ADR % Change 2012

Occ. % change

AD

R %

chan

ge

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA

San Francisco/San Mateo, CA

Washington, DC-MD-VA

Miami-Hialeah, FL

Orlando, FL

Atlanta, GA

Chicago, IL

Boston, MA

New York, NY

Dallas, TX

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Oregon Area Market

Forecast

2010 YE 2011 YE 2012 F

Occupancy 4.4 0.1 -0.1

ADR 0.6 1.7 2.3

RevPAR 5.0 1.9 2.1

STR Analytics Custom Forecast

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Takeaways

Supply Muted

Demand Back

Pricing Power Slow to Improve

Need Rate to Start Driving RevPAR

Overall Positive Environment

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Documents

Total United States Occupancy and ADR Percent Change YTD … · 2012. 3. 6. · 1 InduSTRy Overview Brittany Baldwin Director of Business Development, Destinations SOVA Meeting Symposium-