Steps to increase resilience of agriculture sector to current and future climate variability in Indonesia

Rizaldi BoerBogor Agricultural UniversityIndonesiaE-mail: rboer@fmipa.ipb.ac.idr or rizaldiboer@yahoo.com

• Indonesia is vulnerable country to climate change. At present the occurrence of extreme climate events have caused serious impact in many sectors

Kehutanan73%

Pertanian24%

Perhubungan 3%

Total loss 97/98375 Million US$

TransportationAgriculture

Forestry

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Keru

gian

Akib

at

El-N

ino

82/8

3(M

ilyar

US$

)

Global Indonesia

Econ

omic

Loss

El

-Nin

o 82

/83

(Billi

on U

SD)

• As an agrarian country where this sector as one of the most vulnerable sector to the ECE, Indonesian government has paid serious attention to this sector, how this sector could adapt or cope with to such events

• Many program has been implemented, however, most of the programs are more curative than preventive actions. New programs and large amount of funding was normally released after the devastating impact happened. Good adaptive capacity has not been developed yet as the magnitude of loss due to such events tended to increase

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0.5

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5.0

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Imp

or

(juta

ton

)

25.0

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34.0P

rod

uksi b

eras (juta to

n)Banned of

57 pesticide

price of rice increase, new var. release, IPM

Subsidy for pesticide stop

El-Nino

New var. release, extensification on plantation land, IPT and agric. mechanization

El-Nino

El-Nino

Introduction of direct seeded, 1 million peat land, new regulation

WS delayed, no subsidy (pressure from IMF, economic crisis)

Crash irrigation program, prilled urea, price of rice increased 11%, extensification of upland rice

Impo

rt (

Mill

ion

Ton

)R

ice Production (M

illion Ton)

Policy response to Drought in Indonesia

Increasing loss

NOTE:Historical policy responses to drought in India. Note: each represents

death of one million people, each represents 50 million people affected. If water management response were introduced right after the 1979 drought, the impact of 1987 drought may not as severe as

what really happened. Adopted from Subbiah (2005)

Drought events 1877 1865 1972 1979 1987 2002 Major policy interventions

Famine code

Green revolution

Employment generation program

Contingency crop plan

Watershed protection & improvement

Type of policy responses

Food scarcity relief

Drought relief

Drought management

Water management

Increasing loss

Policy response FAILED to anticipate the future climate risks

• “Planned adaptation to future climate will be based on current individual, community and institutional behaviour that, in part, have been developed as a response to current climate” (Jones et al. 2004)

• We need to develop planning horizon– How far into the future a risk assessment

should be projected?– For how long lifetime of decision-making

associated with a particular activity last?– When new policy should be introduced to

mitigate the possible impact of coming ECE or climate change?

Communicating climate knowledge & climate information applications to increase adaptive capacity and community participations in current and future climate

variability

Research Agencies,Universities

National and local Governments

Farmers and other end users

Transfer of knowledge & technology information through

science and policy forum

Inputs and Feed back

Programs, policies, & regulations

Inputs and Feed backIn

puts

and

Fee

d ba

ck

Tran

sfer

of t

echn

olog

ies

thro

ugh

varie

ty o

f mea

ns

Sustainable system and prosperous

communities

Mitigation actions

Adaptation actions NGOs

Good incentive system

Good climate forecasting

system

APPROACH: Engagement of Stakeholders

How we do it?

A SMALL STEP: INCREASING ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF

FARMERS TO EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS THROUGH FIELD SCHOOL

PROGRAM: Indramayu Case

Subsistence farmers are the most severely affected by ECE

Number of Household based on Welfare Status

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Nu

mb

er o

f H

ou

seh

old

Pra KS KS I KS II KS III KS IV-up

Income Status

2001

2003

2001

Pra KS34%

KS I21%

KS II25%

KS III15%

KS IV-up5%

2003

Pra KS37%

KS I32%

KS II18%

KS III10%

KS IV-up3%

The increase in The increase in number ofnumber of

Pra-KS (Pra-KS (below below poverty linepoverty line) in 2003 ) in 2003 was primarily due to was primarily due to devastating impact of devastating impact of

drought (long dry drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in

2002-20032002-2003

The increase in The increase in number ofnumber of

Pra-KS (Pra-KS (below below poverty linepoverty line) in 2003 ) in 2003 was primarily due to was primarily due to devastating impact of devastating impact of

drought (long dry drought (long dry season) occurred in season) occurred in

2002-20032002-2003

CFS Development Process and ImplementationCFS Development Process and Implementation

Field Facilitator I (PL I) at District/Sub-district Level

Research Communities and local governments

Function: To translate scientific language to field language To train PL2 in technology and method (see and listen) Provide inputs to PL2 in designing detail program for project operational

Field Facilitator II (PL II) at Sub-district or village level

or farmer group level

Function: To translate field language into farmers language To disseminate information and technology to farmers To train farmers based on learning by doing approach To facilitate and motivate farmers to adopt the technologies

Farmer group and farmers’ family

Training

Training

CFS

Engaging policy makers

Engaging intermediaries

Engaging communities

Fee

dbac

k

Use of Climate InformationFarm

management system

Agriculture Institutional

system

Partnership system

Climate Information is needed for:Developing agriculture ZoningSetting up crop management strategy (determining planting time, selection of cropping system following climate forecast) and other mitigation programsAssessing market conditions, etc.

Climate Information is needed for:Setting up market strategies and land allocation under a given forecastIncreasing awareness of farmers to the needs for collaboration among farmers and with other stakeholders in managing climate variabilityDesigning better strategy and coordination between govern-ment agencies in responding to climate forecast etc.

Climate Information can be used for:Convincing farmers’ partners for collaboration by minimizing climate riskAssisting government in setting up local regulations for addressing climate variability (e.g. rice stock management under a given climate forecast, loan arrangement for farmer, etc.) Assisting government to set up budget policy to address climate related problems, etc.

Increasing knowledge of end users small groups-community-institutions

Need for government regulations increasing